This is going to be a long post, over 3,500 words in fact……
The way I see it, Wales simply have to take the next step that has alluded us for so long, and actually start beating the SH big three on a consistent basis over the next 18 months, starting with this Autumn. Beating Aus really should be a realistic goal, whilst SA shouldn’t be out of reach. NZ is altogether a tougher challenge, where a 60 year losing run brings its own pressure, but if we could first get wins against Aus and SA, the confidence would be there to really take it to NZ next year.
I do feel like a stuck record here though, as I’ve been saying the same thing for the past two seasons. I’ve believed that the current crop of Welsh players are good enough to beat Aus in particular, whilst SA doesn’t strike fear into me anymore, but there’s just been something missing. I hope that the influence of the Lions tour will be the final push for those players involved, and their confidence should filter down to the rest of the Welsh squad. This still needs to be realised though….
Injuries are out of our control though, and this is where Wales still fall short of the best I feel. The strength in depth is increasing in many positions, but there are some players we realistically can’t lose, and still challenge the top teams. This is how I view the current strength in depth of the Welsh national side:
Loosehead: Gethin Jenkins, Paul James > Rhys Gill > Ryan Bevington > Rhodri Jones >>> Rob Evans.
Gethin Jenkins and Paul James are two top props, but Gethin’s recent injury problems are a big worry. As such, we really could do with another international class looshead in reserve.
I think Gill offers that cover. Next in line is Bevington who has shown huge potential, but his inconsistency really worries me. He needs to knuckle down and start performing week-in-week-out for the Ospreys and fulfil his potential.
Rhodri Jones should be viewed as an out-and-out looshead, none of this ‘convert him to a tighthead’ nonsense. Maybe then he can develop. Rob Evans is on the radar, but won’t be a realistic option until post RWC 2015.
Prognosis: healthy, but a real push by Bevington or Jones is needed to improve competition.
Hooker: Richard Hibbard, Ken Owens > Matthew Rees >> Scott Baldwin, Emyr Phillips, Sam Parry >> Kirby Myhill.
I feel that we’re reasonably well stocked here. Hibbard and Owens complement each other well, and there’s always the experienced Rees to fall back on if required. Baldwin, Phillips and Parry have the potential, but need to really step-up next season to really push for places. Kirby Myhill’s professional career hasn’t really taken off yet, but I’m expecting a lot from him, although RWC 2015 is likely too soon.
Prognosis: not bad.
Tighthead: Adam Jones >>> Craig Mitchell > Scott Andrews, Aaron Jarvis > Samson Lee.
Will we ever be able to replace Adam Jones? Not currently. He is our scrimmaging rock, and without him we’re vulnerable. We desperately need at least one player to step up to the plate here, capable of anchoring the scrum. Mitchell looked promising, but his form has stuttered of late after a string of injuries.
I still have big question marks over Andrews’ scrummaging, next season at the Blues will reveal a lot alongside two international players in Jenkins and Rees.
Jarvis is a limited player, but is a half decent scrummager, but consider me wholly uninspired by him.
This brings me to Samson Lee. I have high hopes for Lee, I think he’s developing quickly as a scrummager, and could be a real force given time. Realistically though, it’s going to take more time than we have between now and RWC 2015, although stranger things have happened.
Prognosis: problem position.
Second row: Alun-Wyn Jones > Ian Evans, Luke Charteris > Bradley Davies, Andrew Coombs > Lou Reed, Lloyd Peers.
AWJ has developed into one of the finest locks in world rugby imo. He took his game to another level during the Lions tour, and given his consistency and durability he’s going to be the heart of the Welsh pack for years to come. Alongside him, Ian Evans or Charteris both provide the tactical expertise in the lineout and solid grunt to form a strong combination. I’m very happy with that trio.
Bradley Davies really needs to wake-up, because he’s drifting further and further behind imo. I’ve not been impressed with him for quite some time, either for the Blues or Wales, and I find it incredible that he captained Wales in Japan. Coombs on the other hand really stepped up to the plate in the 6 nations, the challenge for him is to continue that this season with the Dragons.
I’d prefer it if Lou Reed were jettisoned tbh, but he seems to be in the coaches good books. Peers is developing quickly though, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he forces his way into the Welsh squad come RWC 2015 if he can get enough game time for the Ospreys with Jones and Evans there.
Prognosis: encouraging.
Blindside: Dan Lydiate, Ryan Jones, Sam Warburton > Aaron Shingler > James King, Andries Pretorius > Josh Turnbull >> Rob McCusker, Ellis Jenkins.
A little spoilt for choice tbh. We’ve got a blindside to fit any game plan we choose to employ.
Lydiate is a workaholic in the tight with his tackling, rucking and even carrying (despite what some believe). Ryan Jones offers huge experience, and the tactical nous to quickly realise when defences leave gaps behind the ruck and exploit that space (along with AWJ). Whilst Warburton is an openside, he’s shown that he can switch to the blindside, alongside Tipuric, and cause havoc. He, Tips and Faletau provided a backrow master class against England, and that backrow deserves another shot to prove it wasn’t a one-off.
Shingler fell off somewhat towards the end of last season, but he again offers something a little different, genuine pace that rivals Croft, and a lovely pair of hands.
Whilst King didn’t make the transition to international rugby that most hoped in Japan, he was still a stand-out performer for the O’s last season, and offers a very rounded skillset. It’s not completely certain what his best position is, but to me he looks like more of a blindside than a lock.
For me, Pretorius is a blindside, but with a lack of 8’s at the Blues and for Wales, he’ll probably be viewed as an 8 for the foreseeable future. I don’t think we’ll see the best from him because of this, although it may boost his international chances.
With Barclay joining the Scarlets, and Dan Thomas ready to step-up (imo), hopefully Turnbull can return to the blindside flank where he started. He’s got a lot to do to overtake those in front of him though. Similarly, McCucker’s best position is at blindside, although I just don’t think he’s anywhere near good enough. He’s just not a smart enough player, taking wrong options and conceding penalties and yellow cards at alarming frequency.
Lastly I want to mention Ellis Jenkins. It’s uncertain atm whether he’s viewed at a 6 or 7, but given that the Blues have Warbs and Navidi at 7, I’d hazard a guess that he may be developed as a 6. He was outstanding in the JWC, and was similarly excellent last season for the U20’s. I’m excited about his potential.
Prognosis: hell yeah!
Openside: Sam Warburton, Justin Tipuric >> Josh Navidi > Sam Lewis, Lewis Evans > Daniel Thomas, Ellis Jenkins.
At first glance we appear well stocked here, but Warburton’s injury track record does ****le at me a little. I feel we need to develop a third option just in case. Navidi and Sam Lewis are developing nicely at their regions, whilst Ellis Jenkins (if he’s considered in the role at the Blues) and Dan Thomas have a lot of potential. Lewis Evans has had some decent spells at the Dragons, but I suspect he falls short of the quality we need.
Prognosis: what team wouldn’t be happy with Warburton and Tipuric battling it out for the next 10 years?
Number 8: Toby Faletau>> (Gareth Delve)>>> Ieuan Jones, Dan Baker, Morgan Allen, Kieran Murphy.
Toby Faletau makes for a lonely presence atm. Bloody good player mind. With Delve likely out of the picture, we desperately need to develop some cover here. McBryde’s (and the regions) plan of playing blindsides at 8 really doesn’t cut it.
Jones, Baker and Allen have potential, especially Ieuan Jones, but are any of them going to be ready in time for RWC 2015? Murphy showed glimpses at the Scarlets, but now he’s moved, he’ll likely to out of the frame. Ryan Jones could fill-in in an emergency, but he’s really not an 8 anymore.
This imo is our biggest problem area, because two out of the four regions (Blues & Scarlets) are playing players out of position at 8, the O’s have a 34y/o playing there (I wish Bearman was 5 years younger), leaving the Dragons who have Faletau and the most promising prospect Ieuan Jones, good on em’.
Prognosis: help!
Scrum half: Mike Phillips? >> Lloyd Williams > Tavis Knoyle, Rhodri Williams, Tom Habberfield, Aled Davies > Jonathan Evans, Gareth Davies, Rhys Webb.
Will Phillips really retire? Is it even bad for Wales if he does? At the moment we don’t have the calibre of player to replace him, but replacing Phillips with a speedy, classy scrum half could really add potency to the Welsh backline imo.
Lloyd Williams has been Phillips’ understudy for the last couple of years, but he’s flattered to deceive somewhat. The same can be said of Tavis Knoyle, who started his career with a bang, but has fizzled out. Rhys Webb has all the tools, but is unfortunately missing a brain. I thought the same of Lee Byrne for a long time though, and he managed to turn things around, but it’s a long-shot.
So maybe the three youngsters at the Scarlets, Tom Habberfield and Jonathan Evans offer our best hope for the future. You’d expect at least one of that lot to progress, and personally I’m backing Habberfield and Rhodri Williams, as imo they are the most well rounded candidates. Aled Davies and Jonathan Evans are both classy players mind. I feel Gareth Davies is possibly missing something, but then he makes a few scything breaks for the Scarlets and changes my mind. The Scarlets really need to decide their pecking order, because I’m not too sure changing scrum half every game is doing either the 9’s, or the rest of the team too much good. There is one less there this season with Knoyle having moved to Gloucester.
Prognosis: I’ll get back to you…
Outside half: Dan Biggar > Rhys Priestland, James Hook > Rhys Patchell > Jason Tovey, Matthew Morgan, Sam Davies, Owen Williams, Jordan Williams?
I feel that a lot of people feel that Biggar isn’t good enough to be our 10 going forwards, but I think he could be a good calming influence, steering the ship, with a good kicking game and distribution, standing flat to draw defences. He can also challenge defences on occasion, whilst his defence is reasonably good. Sometimes Welsh fans are overly obsessed with flashy outside halves, in their search for another Barry John, but how many 10’s of that nature flourish in modern rugby? Not many.
With Halfpenny kicking, it does open up the option of having a real playmaker at 10, but do we really have a player to fill that role atm? A lot of people in Wales would shout Hook’s name to that question, but I really don’t know what to make of Hook atm. He’s an incredibly talented player, but his form for Wales over the last couple of seasons has been poor when given a chance. The Welsh management don’t seem to like him either.
Priestland was a revelation at the 2011 RWC, but he’s struggled to reach that kind of form since, and tbf has been rather poor for both the Scarlets and Wales ever since. He does offer a nicely balanced game when on-form, although his defence is on the poor side, but until he produces something for the Scarlets again, he really should not be considered for Wales. Place kicking did seem to weigh down on him, so maybe without that burden he’ll regain some confidence, although maybe the Scarlets don’t have that luxury.
Patchell is on the rise, and he will be the Blues first choice 10 next season, so will have plenty of opportunities to develop his game and push his case. Hopefully his confidence wasn’t shaken out in Japan where he had to rather unfairly (or unfortunately) fill in at outside centre.
Sam Davies is being hyped by many, especially by those who’ve only really seen him play at the JWC this year. Yes he was great during that campaign, but imo he’s a very similar player to Biggar, and for that reason may struggle to dislodge the more experienced, yet still young Biggar at the O’s.
Tovey has moved back to the Dragons, but he really needs to get out of the rut he’s been in. His ability to unlock defences with his passing game would suit Wales well on paper, especially without the kicking duties, but he’s not pushed on as expected.
Owen Williams looked promising last season, but I’m not sure his move to Leicester will pay off. If he can develop there and get regular game time in the coming seasons, he’d have put himself in a strong position, but I’m not sure I see it myself.
There are two hugely exciting players left, Matthew Morgan and Jordan Williams. Both have been described by their regions as the most talented players they’ve had come through their academy’s, but both have a challenge to stand up physically to professional rugby. Matthew Morgan has really struggled for the O’s though. Depending on how he develops this coming season, I’d be tempted if I were the O’s management to try him on the wing, where he wouldn’t be so exposed defensively, and he can just concentrate on roaming the pitch and beating defenders. Whilst Jordan plays at 10 for Llanelli, but has stated that he prefers the extra space and freedom of playing fullback.
Prognosis: Unsettled.
Inside Centre: Jamie Roberts >> Ashley Beck > Steven Shingler > Cory Allen, Jack Dixon.
Whilst Roberts is a proven international player of the highest calibre, there’s still part of me that feels that Wales lack creativity at 12, and this limits the potency of our outside backs. Whilst getting over the gainline is an important aspect of breaking down the organised defences of modern rugby, it shouldn’t be the be all and end all. Roberts is one of the ultimate smashers in the game, with a defensive game to match, but I’d love to see Beck get more game time to see if he can use his offloading and distribution to add more potency to the Welsh backline. I’m not saying drop Roberts, but exploring other options should still be done.
Shingler also offers a similar option, a second 5/8’th type of player which is so popular down South. If he can settle in well at the Scarlets, he’ll be in with a shout of making future Welsh squads given his versatility.
Two young options are Allen and Dixon. I’m sure many are aware that I have high hopes for Allen, who combines power with pace, skill and vision. He’s starred at U20 level and with the 7’s, but as yet hasn’t been given a shot at the Blues. This season should remedy that if Phil Davies has any sense. Dixon is already a regular starter for the Dragons, and was integral to the success of the U20’s this season. Under the guidance of Lyn Jones, I expect him to develop over the coming seasons. Both could be viewed as outside centres as well, but I feel that they will be played at inside centre for their regions due to a lack of alternatives.
Do I even mention the orange one?
Prognosis: healthy enough.
Outside Centre: Jon Davies, Jamie Roberts >> James Hook, Scott Williams > Owen Williams > Nick Reynolds, Andrew Bishop.
Roberts could also be utilised at outside centre if Beck forces his way into the reckoning. As for Davies, I thought he matured somewhat as a player on the Lions tour, and showed that with work his passing game can improve. The rest of his game is already at a high standard, but he needs to keep working on his passing so that opportunities don’t go begging with an overthrown pass into touch.
James Hook has arguably produced some of his best rugby for Wales at outside centre, where he has a little more time. He seems intent on playing at 10 though, which could limit his chances in the centre for Wales.
Scott Williams has done some good things for Wales, but has also made his fair share of blunders. He seems to be living off that game winning try v’s England somewhat, but a lot of people seem to forget the try he butchered earlier in the game. Needs to show more tactical nous and awareness to really push for a starting spot, and I don’t think he currently has the ability to do so.
I thought Owen Williams was one of the few players to have played well on the Japan Tour. Hopefully he’s played in the centre for the Blues this season, not just used as filler on the wing where he lacks the pace to be truly effective. I think an Allen-Williams combo could work well, time will tell if Davies and co. can see past Gavin Evans and Dafydd Hewitt.
Bishop is the forgotten man after a season out. He’s a limited player, but in an emergency he’s not a bad player to have available. Reynolds career for the Scarlets has been a little stop-start. I think he’s got something about him, but I am still undecided.
Prognosis: Again, reasonable healthy.
Wing: George North, Alex Cuthbert > Eli Wales > Liam Williams, Hanno Dirksen (when qualified) > Harry Robinson >> Tom Prydie, Dafydd Howells.
There’s a little more strength developing here, although that hasn’t transferred into the national team just yet with Eli being injured for the last half of last season. North and Cuthbert are clearly first choices atm, but I’m eagerly anticipating Eli Wales’ debut (as long as he returns to form quickly). I think he could offer something very different. Still it’s difficult not to be happy with North’s all round quality, and Cuthbert’s finishing prowess.
Liam Williams offers an option on the wing. I expect Dirksen to opt to play for Wales. Rightly or wrongly, he’s too good a player to pass-up if he does make himself available once qualified.
Prydie remains the youngest player to ever play for Wales, but he hasn’t really developed in the way Gats envisaged. He didn’t really set the world alight for the Dragons last season, although his boot can be useful. There’s a lot of hype surrounding Dafydd Howells, but Regional rugby comes first for him.
Halfpenny could always switch to the wing in an emergency, but I’d do everything I can to keep him at fullback.
Prognosis: depth is shallow at the moment, but should grow.
Fullback: Leigh Halfpenny >>>> Lee Byrne, Liam Williams, Richard Fussell >> Dan Fish, Hallam Amos, Jordan Williams, Tom Prydie > Ross Jones.
Halfpenny is up there with the best in the world, an integral part of the Welsh team. But the backup atm is a little shaky tbh. I feel that Byrne has been jettisoned too soon, because he’s still a top operator for Clermont, a solid performer with few weaknesses to his game. At 33, there’s a chance he could make the next WC, but far from a certainty.
Liam Williams and James Hook have been the main alternatives. Hook really isn’t a fullback, lacking pace to really make an impact from so deep. His running style doesn’t suit the position either imo. Williams has been OK, but is still inconsistent, and still learning. Needs to watch his temper, which can get the better of him on occasion. No denying his enthusiasm though!
Despite a fine couple of seasons for the O’s, Fussell has been overlooked for Wales, and I can’t see that changing after not even making the Japan tour. Cymro has questioned his consistency in the past, and I see where he’s coming from. He has more good days than bad, but it does raise question marks about whether he could make the step-up to international rugby.
Fish and Amos are two promising players. Fish may struggle for regional game time behind Halfpenny, but Amos will likely be first choice at the Dragons next season. Jordan Williams and Prydie could come into the reckoning here as well.
After some fine performances for Wales at U20 level, Ross Jones really struggled at times for the Ospreys last season. His performance against Leinster really highlighted just how much work he needs to do on his defence before he’s ready for regional rugby, let alone international.
Prognosis: needs strengthening.
