• Help Support The Rugby Forum :

Northern dominance?

This thread šŸ¤£
I'm confused, what's the issue with discussing the idea of a NH semi final lineup, after NH teams top all groups and beat ALL SH teams lol.

Maybe you need to reread the thread hahaha

My counter to this was that it may well reverse, and an all NH semis may happen (although I'll be honest I didnt really believe it).
 
TBF France and Ireland were favorites even if marginally so. NZ put in a master class and Ireland looked knackered and it was still only a hair that separated them. SA, we managed to stay in it with France unplayable in the first 50 but allowing soft points to keep us in it and then our superior bench did it for us. Wales Argentina was a surprise but then again I felt Argentina was uncharacteristically flat so far and had only to play to their potential.
 
Last edited:
In all seriousness, i think it is fair to say we have had a few years where the NH has never been stronger compared to the SH (excluding the past 48hrs). But there could be really challenging times in the next World Cup cycle for the 6N sides to hold or improve their pre RWC 2023 world ranking positions:

Wales - Biggar, Anscombe & Liam gone/too old, low wages in URC could lead younger internationals playing abroad. Gatland good, but he can't keep performing miracles surely?

Ireland - couldn't trust a back up fly half with even a minutes play in a QF when it was crying out for fresh, young legs. Their vital Kiwi trinity are likely too old and cannot easily be replaced due to residency rule change, so scrumhalf and winger depth could be issues too. Morale may be a challenge for the Leinster contingent. Questionmarks in my opinion remain about whether piling all the best Irish players into Leinster (limiting gametime and exposure to adversity) is best for the national team.

Scotland - ageing X-factor in Finn and Huw. Residency difficulties, u20s dire for years (so little coming through). Already playing a prop who has no team at this RWC. English league disincentives to become non English Q could really begin to bite. Finn and Townsend just waiting to fall out again. A lot depends on Ross Thompson at fly half and Finn's ability as he ages but I think Scotland almost need to target 2031.

England - Borthwick has both feet under the table. Although centralised player contracts could be a big positive. So from such a low base they should at least hold their relative position of around 6th to 8th. But hard to see an assault on the top 4 in the world now they are consistently toiling against the PIs.

Italy & France - I think can at least hold their places. Italy could really take off, finally. Surely some of their decent u20s from 4 or so years ago will blossom in this RWC cycle and they will dramatically close the gap on Scotland, Wales and maybe England? France desperately need to address fitness issues or whatever is causing second half slumps following lightening quick starts.

I think we will see a more convincing 3x SH semifinalists in 2027 (especially with the Pumas getting the Jaguares back in 2026) even though there are a bundle of issues in the SH too (AB player depth at lock, scrumhalf, fullback etc, Aussies generally, Pumas scattered around the world).


Tier2 - Fiji, Samoa and Tonga could all keep their place. Japan could go down the plughole a bit unless they get a Sunwolves and a good coach. If Georgia get some locks and learn to lineout then they should keep pace with Samoa (probably not with Fiji) and be nibbling the toes of any tier1s that slip up badly.

The rest of Tier2 is, as ever, extremely volatile from one cycle to the next as players drift into early retirement to put food on the table and coaching ability varies massively.
 
I have never been more happy to read a thread. Southern Hemisphere rugby is still the clear winner. Now SA #1, NZ #2.
 
I have never been more happy to read a thread. Southern Hemisphere rugby is still the clear winner. Now SA #1, NZ #2.
I wouldn't necessarily say that even though there are 3 in the semi's. It took a lot to get over the line and I'm not convinced if all those QF are played 10 times over that the SH take the majority.
In all seriousness, i think it is fair to say we have had a few years where the NH has never been stronger compared to the SH (excluding the past 48hrs). But there could be really challenging times in the next World Cup cycle for the 6N sides to hold or improve their pre RWC 2023 world ranking positions:

Wales - Biggar, Anscombe & Liam gone/too old, low wages in URC could lead younger internationals playing abroad. Gatland good, but he can't keep performing miracles surely?

Ireland - couldn't trust a back up fly half with even a minutes play in a QF when it was crying out for fresh, young legs. Their vital Kiwi trinity are likely too old and cannot easily be replaced due to residency rule change, so scrumhalf and winger depth could be issues too. Morale may be a challenge for the Leinster contingent. Questionmarks in my opinion remain about whether piling all the best Irish players into Leinster (limiting gametime and exposure to adversity) is best for the national team.

Scotland - ageing X-factor in Finn and Huw. Residency difficulties, u20s dire for years (so little coming through). Already playing a prop who has no team at this RWC. English league disincentives to become non English Q could really begin to bite. Finn and Townsend just waiting to fall out again. A lot depends on Ross Thompson at fly half and Finn's ability as he ages but I think Scotland almost need to target 2031.

England - Borthwick has both feet under the table. Although centralised player contracts could be a big positive. So from such a low base they should at least hold their relative position of around 6th to 8th. But hard to see an assault on the top 4 in the world now they are consistently toiling against the PIs.

Italy & France - I think can at least hold their places. Italy could really take off, finally. Surely some of their decent u20s from 4 or so years ago will blossom in this RWC cycle and they will dramatically close the gap on Scotland, Wales and maybe England? France desperately need to address fitness issues or whatever is causing second half slumps following lightening quick starts.

I think we will see a more convincing 3x SH semifinalists in 2027 (especially with the Pumas getting the Jaguares back in 2026) even though there are a bundle of issues in the SH too (AB player depth at lock, scrumhalf, fullback etc, Aussies generally, Pumas scattered around the world).


Tier2 - Fiji, Samoa and Tonga could all keep their place. Japan could go down the plughole a bit unless they get a Sunwolves and a good coach. If Georgia get some locks and learn to lineout then they should keep pace with Samoa (probably not with Fiji) and be nibbling the toes of any tier1s that slip up badly.

The rest of Tier2 is, as ever, extremely volatile from one cycle to the next as players drift into early retirement to put food on the table and coaching ability varies massively.
I can see France dominate the next couple of years. Ireland and SA will be replacing a couple of big names. We will have a good xv but won't have the depth we currently have across the board. NZ will be the main ones to challenge France even if I don't see a return to unchallenged NZ dominance.

The rest will be interesting to see how it shapes. With the USA having a sustainable domestic league you'd like to think they'd improve but IMO 4 years won't see them challenge yet. I think there is enough talent in Aus that just picking up the left overs won't see them fall further behind than what they already have. Think Argentina will continue their slow climb. Such a great sporting nation.
 
The gap has closed quite a bit. It's really healthy for the game.
The question I have is whether this is a trend or an anomaly. In France's case i think an argument can be made for it to be considered a trend. With the rest, I am not so sure. I hope i am wrong.

When BOD and Darcy retired i thought Ireland would pay dearly and then Ringrose, Aki and Henshaw stepped up. We are talking about a pair of centers that can compete vs the best in the world. And win +50% of the times. Two generations in a row. And i am sure they've got quite a few outstanding up-and-coming FH's, but are they up there with Sexton? I don't know. I'd be a delight to watch if they are.

This inevitably boils down a bit to a numbers game and I see two key variables: the system itself and the population. France and South Africa appear to have cracked it properly. New Zealand doesnt have the population but their grassroots are out of this world. In a way, NZ is able to discretionally cherry-pick more minutiously than the rest of the teams. Ireland is a question mark for me.
 
The question I have is whether this is a trend or an anomaly. In France's case i think an argument can be made for it to be considered a trend. With the rest, I am not so sure. I hope i am wrong.

When BOD and Darcy retired i thought Ireland would pay dearly and then Ringrose, Aki and Henshaw stepped up. We are talking about a pair of centers that can compete vs the best in the world. And win +50% of the times. Two generations in a row. And i am sure they've got quite a few outstanding up-and-coming FH's, but are they up there with Sexton? I don't know. I'd be a delight to watch if they are.

This inevitably boils down a bit to a numbers game and I see two key variables: the system itself and the population. France and South Africa appear to have cracked it properly. New Zealand doesnt have the population but their grassroots are out of this world. In a way, NZ is able to discretionally cherry-pick more minutiously than the rest of the teams. Ireland is a question mark for me.

I think Ireland have a really good system for developing their players now. They're good at identifying future talent, nurturing them in their URC teams and getting them exposure to playing big international opposition. They are even getting a bit of experience to larger tours now. Leinster has twice now sent a very junior team for their SA leg of the URC (because they had already topped the table and could not be caught). That experience at Ellis Park/Loftus and dealing with longer flights is a great experience for juniors.

They have a strong conveyor belt of talent and in the URC they probably had the greatest consistency across the two years of all of their 4 teams performing.
 
The question I have is whether this is a trend or an anomaly. In France's case i think an argument can be made for it to be considered a trend. With the rest, I am not so sure. I hope i am wrong.

When BOD and Darcy retired i thought Ireland would pay dearly and then Ringrose, Aki and Henshaw stepped up. We are talking about a pair of centers that can compete vs the best in the world. And win +50% of the times. Two generations in a row. And i am sure they've got quite a few outstanding up-and-coming FH's, but are they up there with Sexton? I don't know. I'd be a delight to watch if they are.

This inevitably boils down a bit to a numbers game and I see two key variables: the system itself and the population. France and South Africa appear to have cracked it properly. New Zealand doesnt have the population but their grassroots are out of this world. In a way, NZ is able to discretionally cherry-pick more minutiously than the rest of the teams. Ireland is a question mark for me.
I think the anomaly is actually this past weekend and what I predict up until 2027 of restored SH dominance. Ireland, Wales, England, France and Italy all have decent talent coming through and enough money (possibly not Wales now) to retain most of best players (whereas the SH bleed their best players to Japan and European). So i still think long term we will seem the NH at a least on an even footing with TRC sides (as per my prediction in the 'rugby in 10 years time' thread).

If Argentina, Australia and NZ can find a reliable source of funds to strengthen their domestic pro teams then they might keep on top but overall I'd like to think the more level playing field between hemispheres is here to stay despite a horrific weekend for the NH.
 
I probably agree with those quarters, and I certainly agree with the outcomes.

I think England deal with Fiji, theyve been great but the Aus win has been put into perspective a bit. England certainly would prefer dealing with fijian brutality than Welsh momentum.

Dream quarter for Wales, certainly not wanting the old enemy in the quarter stage. This is probably the most likely for a SH progression IMO. Argentina started bad, getting better, they are a bot of form away from being very dangerous again, or Japan turn the tables who knows lol.

France v SA is the battle of the bulk, after seeing Ireland demolish the blitz with brain over brawn, France must be confident of adding that to their armory, although no Dupont makes it harder. France slight favourites, but if anyone is going to beat France I think SA are best placed followed by the Welsh knowledge of Edward's defencive sets.

Ireland v NZ I personally think is a blow out, Ireland by 10+. NZ have too many limitations and Ireland have clear dominance over a below average kiwi team lacking unbelievably belief. That said, NZ by 20 wouldnt shock me, massive mental hurdles are hard to overcome, I was there in 2015 predicting Ireland by 15 v Argentina like everyone else.

So would that make:

Ireland v Wales?
England v France?

Aged like a fine English whine.
 
Aged like a fine English whine.
I think you need to re read, that was very accurate lol.

Argentina did what I said, SA did actually beat France, NZ by 20 wouldnt have shocked me, so a narrow victory did not lol. And of course England did deal with Fiji.

Pop the glasses on
 
I think you need to re read, that was very accurate lol.

Argentina did what I said, SA did actually beat France, NZ by 20 wouldnt have shocked me, so a narrow victory did not lol. And of course England did deal with Fiji.

Pop the glasses on

You were all over the place. You basically said either team could win in each quarter with the exception of England vs. Fiji lol.

And then put all 4 Northern Hemisphere teams down.
 
You were all over the place. You basically said either team could win in each quarter with the exception of England vs. Fiji lol.

And then put all 4 Northern Hemisphere teams down.
No...

I made cases for all teams winning, and then asked the question of a semi final lineup. You understand what question Mark's are no?

It's a way of stoking discussion, I was giving my thought on the chances of each team, I gave Argentina the best chance and Fiji the least.
 
I see NZ dominating for a while. They will have a new coaching team with Scott Robertson at the helm.
I'm conflicted about Scott Robertson. I also think the lack of quality competition in the club competition, and the island players now all being funneled to Europe instead of NZ is going to effect them.

I certainly dont see any NZ domination for a while. If anything, I think SA are going to be the team to beat for a decade or 3.
 
I'm conflicted about Scott Robertson. I also think the lack of quality competition in the club competition, and the island players now all being funneled to Europe instead of NZ is going to effect them.

I certainly dont see any NZ domination for a while. If anything, I think SA are going to be the team to beat for a decade or 3.
question....if Pacific Islanders going to europe rather than NZ (once again most PI players are born in NZ and NZ IS a Pacific Island) is going to stop us dominating....wont that mean the European teams WILL start dominating more?
 
Top