A Political Thread pt. 2

[TRF_Olyy]

Apparently all the Russian kit is in **** shape, as well

Saw a thread on twitter the other day from an ex-Army engineer, who was breaking down some of the images of abandoned vehicles - he was saying that the tyres on the vehicles were shredding themselves because they'd been left stationary for months/years, with no maintenance, so the rubber got brittle and then as soon as it hit the Ukrainian mud they just gave up the ghost
It's why that massive long convoy was just two vehicles wide going down the main roads and avoiding any non-metalled tracks entirely

Russia are also having to disguise their tankers as regular lorries because they keep getting picked off and they're absolutely desperate for fuel

 

[Which Tyler]

Russia's a cleptocracy - are we surprised that they've cut the odd corner here and there in terms of equipment, maintenance, training, flight hours etc etc

I've seen reports (though of course, I can't find them now)*that the invasion took his cabinet and generals by surprise - they were under the impression that the build up stuff was a bluff, but that the intention was to secure the separatist states, maybe the 2 Oblasts depending on levels of international resistance, and "leave"

Which means that no planning was really made for a full-on invasion, and they mostly had their standard 3-days supplies.

I think we know enough now to say that the squaddies on the ground were also under that impression.

* Well, I can, but my source is British Military, so I'm not sure if he was supposed to say anything, or if it's been made public knowledge somewhere - if anyone quotes me, please delete this bit

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Why is shameonscotland trending bar the obvious reasons

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Why is shameonscotland trending bar the obvious reasons

Something to do with gender recognition legislation (streamlining the self identification process). No idea if pro or con the legislation. Not really an issue I'm following given assessments that these issues (testorone levels, sexual organs and chromosones) could impact as little as 0.001% or 0.0001% of the population (and yes, I know that is the lowest estimate and yes I know life must be challenging and confusing if you are in that minority).

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Why is shameonscotland trending bar the obvious reasons

Yeah it's the GRA - it's a shitty piece of legislation with very few protection for women and every time it's debated Nicola just shouts shame on you at anyone questioning it

 

[ncurd]

Yeah it's the GRA - it's a shitty piece of legislation with very few protection for women and every time it's debated Nicola just shouts shame on you at anyone questioning it

Honestly on this topic unless any of us are trans/cis women (and informed women because many aren't that touch on this conversation) this really isn't a something we should touch with a barge pole.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Indeed. The longer it goes on, the more desperate Putin will get and that doesn’t bode well at all.

If it carries on getting crazier, I worry about NATO being forced in to military action.

The cynic in me days this is exactly what Putin is looking for, trying to goad NATO into responding with gradually more extreme actions.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Honestly on this topic unless any of us are trans/cis women (and informed women because many aren't that touch on this conversation) this really isn't a something we should touch with a barge pole.

I'm not too bothered about getting into it on here, but that's a weird attitude to have about any legislation imo (though a lot of people share it with you).

It just feels very anti democratic to pigeonhole policy areas

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Large debates about fracking currently

 

[ncurd]

I'm not too bothered about getting into it on here, but that's a weird attitude to have about any legislation imo (though a lot of people share it with you).

It just feels very anti democratic to pigeonhole policy areas

I've spoken to trans friends, I've also spoken to cis friends. My only conclusion is I know nothing and don't understand it anywhere near enough, I don't think any man can it's a life experience complete separate from our own. I've also learnt trying to talk about it online is a complete waste of time.

 

[Deleted member 53362]

The convoy supposedly ran out of fuel yesterday....

I'm getting the impression that one of two things has happen, either they never really intended to invade Ukraine but after it being mooted for months they decided "**** it lets do it anyway". Or they thought they would just walk in. either point to a great military fuckup in planning and intelligence.

I think that's wishful thinking.

Soviet military doctrine calls for initial probing attacks and area security in the forward areas. This is followed by a steady build up of forces followed by a double envoplment and siege. The Ukrainian forces are engaged in the cities by the forward elements to keep them from disrupting this build up. Also you have forces moving up from the south and east.

As much as I want this convoy to be in trouble, it just looks like a standard Soviet build up similar to operations in WW2.

Also note that the convoy hasn't been attacked yet despite the whole world knowing about it meaning the Russians have complete control of the area which is in the plan

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

I think that's wishful thinking.

Soviet military doctrine calls for initial probing attacks and area security in the forward areas. This is followed by a steady build up of forces followed by a double envoplment and siege. The Ukrainian forces are engaged in the cities by the forward elements to keep them from disrupting this build up. Also you have forces moving up from the south and east.

As much as I want this convoy to be in trouble, it just looks like a standard Soviet build up similar to operations in WW2.

Also note that the convoy hasn't been attacked yet despite the whole world knowing about it meaning the Russians have complete control of the area which is in the plan

I was thinking the convoy is just sitting outside the capital to dissuade any redeployment by Ukraine to the fronts where they are losing territory. Might as well have them parked outside Kyiv as in Belarus (or maybe Lukashenko asked for them to be removed?)

Moldova is also now begging for EU membership. It is kind of tragic seeing these nations that suspect they are next on the menu and know that nobody will intervene, trying to find any sort of leverage that might bring them some possible defence assistance (e.g. EU rapid reaction force).

 

[Amiga500]

If NATO deployed forces within Moldova (under invitation), would that not be challenging Putin to fight NATO?

[rather than challenging NATO to fight Putin if you get the distinction]

 

[Deleted member 53362]

I was thinking the convoy is just sitting outside the capital to dissuade any redeployment by Ukraine to the fronts where they are losing territory. Might as well have them parked outside Kyiv as in Belarus (or maybe Lukashenko asked for them to be removed?)

Moldova is also now begging for EU membership. It is kind of tragic seeing these nations that suspect they are next on the menu and know that nobody will intervene, trying to find any sort of leverage that might bring them some possible defence assistance (e.g. EU rapid reaction force).

Does the EU have a rapid reaction force? The EU is a trading block with some political alignment. It's not a defensive alliance. I would struggle to think of any EU member who would deploy outside of NATO, there are some EU members who are actively pro Putin so to expect the likes of Hungary to deploy as an EU army is a bit far fetched

 

[Deleted member 53362]

If NATO deployed forces within Moldova (under invitation), would that not be challenging Putin to fight NATO?

[rather than challenging NATO to fight Putin if you get the distinction]

There are NATO troops deploying now in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania but they are NATO members. If NATO did deploy to Moldova and I see no reason why they would, the Russians might lose their **** a little but given the military task they currently face there isn't a great deal they could do. Never fight a war on 2 fronts

 

[Reiser99]

Does the EU have a rapid reaction force? The EU is a trading block with some political alignment. It's not a defensive alliance. I would struggle to think of any EU member who would deploy outside of NATO, there are some EU members who are actively pro Putin so to expect the likes of Hungary to deploy as an EU army is a bit far fetched

Yeah, can anyone explain how joining the EU helps defence wise?

 

[General Melchett]

Yeah, can anyone explain how joining the EU helps defence wise?

It doesn't. It might lead to stronger sanctions from Brussels and offer citizens freedom of movement but not much more than that.

I was looking at the 30 countries in NATO and didn't realise Turkey joined in the 1950's. They shot a Russian fighter jet down during the Syria conflict and nothing came of it. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined in 2004 which was during Putin's watch interestingly (his first stint as President began in late 1999).

 

[Reiser99]

It doesn't. It might lead to stronger sanctions from Brussels and offer citizens freedom of movement but not much more than that.

I was looking at the 30 countries in NATO and didn't realise Turkey joined NATO in the 1950's. They shot a Russian fighter jet down during the Syria conflict and nothing came of it. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined in 2004 which was during Putin's watch interestingly (his first stint as President began in late 1999).

Well as I've said before. Russia have already accidentally fired on a Turkish warship and nothing has come of it. Everyone in Nato is terrified it will become another World War or quite possibly even a nuclear war. I definitely think Russia would be fighting too many opponents with Nato and if Putin is already ready to use nukes, imagine if he was losing a larger conflict.

 

[Reiser99]

On another note I'm finding it interesting how much businesses are changing practices to support Ukraine. In this new global world it's unprecedented to see shops pulling Russian products, changing names to show support. Hell China won't show anymore premier league games while they show solidarity with Ukraine. It's definitely a new aspect to war that hasn't really been seen to this level before.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Wasn’t one of the reasons Brexiteers hated the EU was the prospect of a EU army. Or was the at one of their scare tactics to leave?