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2012 ITM Cup - Championship Preview

Darwin

AKA Dingo_Darwin
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Southland

Southland.png


2011 record:
Played 10, won 4, lost 6 (29 points). 7th​ in Premiership â€" relegated to Championship.​

2011 was a season of ups and downs for Southland. They started the season poorly with several losses, then upset Canterbury in round 3, winning the Ranfurly Shield in the process. Though they continued to struggle away from home, they managed several successful Shield defences, before losing the Shield to Taranaki in Round 12. They finished the season in last place, and hence have been relegated to the Championship for 2012.

Southlands strength is undoubtedly their hard working forward pack, built around the experience of Jamie MackIntosh, Jason Rutledge, Josh Bekhuis, and Hoani MacDonald. Dynamic loose forwards Tim Boys, John Hardie, and Elliot Dixon will look exploit the hard work of their tight-forwards, and together probably give Southland the best forward pack in the Championship.

Southland will welcome back Jimmy Cowan for the full season after he dropped out of the All Blacks fold, and his experience will be vital alongside what will be a very inexperienced first-five. Under 20’s players Scott Eade and Marty McKenzie look to be vying for the starting 10 spot, and though there is no doubting their talent, one wonders whether they are ready to run an ITM Cup side yet. With the departure of Kenny Lynn there are concerns regarding the creativity in the midfield, but there is plenty of firepower out wide, with Highlanders wing Kade Poki, former Australian Sevens speedster Tim Cornforth, and outstanding Chiefs fullback Robbie Robinson sure to cause opposition teams a few headaches.

Possible match-day 23:

1. Jamie Mackintosh (c), 2. Jason Rutledge, 3. Nicholas Barrett, 4. Josh Bekhuis, 5. Hoani MacDoanld, 6. John Hardie, 7. Tim Boys, 8. Elliot Dixon, 9. Jimmy Cowan, 10. Scott Eade, 11. Tim Cornforth, 12. Cardiff Vaega, 13. Matt Saunders, 14. Kade Poki, 15. Robbie Robinson
Reserves: 16. Brayden Mitchell, 17. Tukierangi Raimona, 18. Michael Peterson, 19. Alex Ryan, 20. Michael Fatialofa, 21. Nemia Kenatale, 22. Marty McKenzie, 23. Nathan Hohaia

Predicted finish in 2012: 1st​ â€" Promoted to Premiership

Manawatu
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2011 record: Played 10, won 7, lost 3 (33 points). 2nd​ in Championship​

Manawatu were the most dominant team in the Championship in 2011, winning 7 of their 10 matches, including a stunning 54-20 demolition of Premiership side Waikato in round 11. However they stumbled at the final hurdle, losing a tight final 30-35 to Hawke’s Bay. 2012 promises to be a much tougher prospect however, with key play-makers Aaron Smith and Aaron Cruden called up to the All Blacks, leaving Manawatu without two of the competitions outstanding players of 2011.

Manawatu will again rely on their hard working tight-five to create a strong platform for their backs to work off. The established propping trio of Grant Polson, David Te Moana, and Ma’afu Fia are joined by USA international Eric Fry, giving them a strong propping rotation. They will again be lead by loose-forward Nick Crosswell, though will be missing Highlanders flanker Doug Tiejtens who is out for the season with injury.

With the absence of Smith and Cruden the halves look to be a major area of concern for the Turbos in 2012. This has been compounded with the injury to Cruden’s backup Isaac Thompson, but the arrival of former Under 20’s first-five Nathan George will help to alleviate the situation somewhat. Under 20’s centre Jason Emery is an exciting option in midfield, while there is plenty of pace out wide with Nehe Milner-Skudder, Asaeli Tikoirotuma, Tomasi Cama, and George Tilsley.

Possible match-day 23:

1. Grant Polson, 2. Rob Foreman, 3. Ma’afu Fia, 4. Reece Robinson, 5. Michael Fitzgerald, 6. Nick Crosswell (c), 7. Callum Gibbens, 8. James Oliver, 9. Karl Bryson, 10. Nathan George, 11. Tomasi Cama, 12. Francis Bryant, 13. Jason Emery, 14. Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 15. Nehe Milner-Skudder
Reserves: Bryn Templeman, 17. Eric Fry, 18. David Te Moana, 19. Fraser Stone, 20. Hamish Gosling, 21. Papa Wharewera, 22. Lewis Marshall, 23. Craig Clare

Predicted finish in 2012: 6th

Otago

Otago.png

2011 record
: Played 10, won 5, lost 5 (24 points). 3rd​ in Championship​

2011 was a solid year for Otago on the field â€" though they only finished third in the Championship this was a major improvement from their last placed finish of the previous season. However off the field was another story, with the Otago Rugby Union debt so large that they were set to be put into liquidation, before a deal was struck between the NZRFU and the Dunedin City Council to keep the Union afloat. This financial turmoil lead to the cutting on many player contracts, which may have been a blessing is disguise for Otago rugby, with many journeyman players cut and replaced by young local talent.

Otago are very well severed at hooker, with the promising Liam Coltman and dynamic Japanese hooker Shota Horie vying for a starting spot. Prop however is an area of major concern, with experienced props Jacob Ellison and Tama Tuirirangi expected to carry much of the work-load, though Ellisons season is already in doubt due to injury. The loss of inspirational captain Eben Joubert to injury before the season has even begun is a massive blow for Otago, though the loose-forwards remain an area of strength, with TJ Ioane, Gareth Evans, Paul Grant, and Hugh Blake all needing strong seasons to push their cases for inclusion in next seasons Highlanders squad.

Livewire Japanese halfback Fumiaka Tanaka is going to be a key player for Otago with his brilliant distribution and sniping running, while Sevens star Brad Webber could provide good impact from the bench. First-five is an area of concern for Otago, though it is hoped that Hayden Parker will start to deliver on his potential. Otago is very thin of experience out wide, and will rely heavily on Buxton Popoali’i to inspire a group of players far more familiar with club football than this level of rugby.

Possible match-day 23:

1. Jacob Ellison, 2. Liam Coltman, 3. Tama Tuirirangi, 4. Rob Verbakel, 5. Tom Franklin, 6. TJ Ioane, 7. Gareth Evans, 8. Paul Grant ©, 9. Fumiaka Tanaka, 10. Hayden Parker, 11. Buxton Popoali’i, 12. Glenn Dickson, 13. Jayden Spence, 14. Matt Faddes, 15. Tony Ensor
Reserves: 16. Shota Horie, 17. Aki Suili, 18. Scott Manson, 19. Justin Ives, 20. Hugh Blake, 21. Brad Weber, 22. Peter Breen, 23. Michael Collins

Predicted finish in 2012: 5th​

Counties Manukau


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2011 record:
Played 10, won 4, lost 6 (22 points). 4th​ in Championship​

The Counties Manukau union continues to be a strong breeding ground for exciting young players, but they have struggled to re-capture the glory years of the late 1990’s when, with stars such as Jonah Lomu and Joeli Vidiri, they regularly challenged for the NPC ***le. They had a solid season in 2011, the highlight being a 39-19 victory over Northland, and they almost managed a historic upset over Auckland, only for a last minute try to be controversially disallowed. They enter the 2012 season with a well established side, and could well push for a spot in the Championship final.

The addition of former Samoan captain Mo Schwalger is a massive boost for the Chiefs, and he should help stabilise a tight five that has been a weakness over recent seasons. Prop remains a position of concern for the Steelers though, and they may find they are again retreating at scrum time for most of the season. There is no shortage of athletic ball runners in the forward pack, with Fritz Lee, Simon Lemalu, DJ Forbes, Jimmy Tupou, and Kenyan signing Daniel Adongo all renowned as strong runners.

As with last season, there is an abundance of talent in the backline, though backline cohesion may be an issue again. Halfback Augustine Pulu will want to build on his strong cameo performances with the Chiefs, while out wider the likes of Sherwin Stowers, new recruit Frank Halai, and Tim Nanai-Williams will form a back three that is as dangerous as any in the competition.

Possible match-day 23:

1. Simon Lemalu, 2. Mahonri Schwalger, 3. Matt Talaese, 4. Jamie Chipman, 5. Ronald Raaymakers, 6. Jimmy Tupou, 7. DJ Forbes, 8. Fritz Lee, 9. Augustine Pulu, 10. Baden Kerr, 11. Sherwin Stowers, 12. Rey Lee-Io, 13. Bundee Aki, 14. Frank Halai, 15. Tim Nanai-Williams
Reserves: 16. Suiliasi Taufalele, 17. Maka Tatafu, 18. Peter Hale, 19. Daniel Adongo, 20. Mark Selwyn, 21. David Bason, 22. Tyrone Lefau, 23. Ahsee Tuala

Predicted finish in 2012: 3rd​

Northland

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2011 record
: Played 10, won 4, lost 6 (19 points). 5th​ in Championship​

Northland had a mixed season in 2011. They achieved upset wins over Hawke’s Bay and Bay of Plenty, but suffered disappointing losses to Counties Manukau and North Harbour. They finished 5th​ in the Championship, but one feel they underachieved, as when they fired they seemed capable of competing well with the top Championship sides. 2012 may be a challenging year for Northland though, with the loss of experienced prop Bronson Murray, and key backs Jarred Payne and Lachie Munro.

The tight five looks to be a weak area for Northland in 2012. They are well served at hooker, with ex-Southland stalwart David Hall and Tone Kopelani joining established hooker Ross Wright, however the propping options are not strong, and the locks lack experience. The loss of experienced number 8 Cam Eyre is a blow for Northland, though this offset by the addition of Tongan international Hale T-Pole. Openside flankers Dan Pryor will want to built on his strong 2011 form, and push for inclusion in the full Blues squad for 2013.

The experienced Orene Ai’i is a good addition for Northland, and looks set to start the season at fullback. In the absence of key play-makers Jarred Payne and Lachie Munro, Northland will rely heavily on the elusiveness of Ai’i and the power of Rene Ranger to break the opposition defensive line. England Sevens speedster Dan Caprice is an interesting addition to the squad, though one wonders whether he will get many opportunities to display his extreme pace.

Possible match-day 23:

1. Matt Wallis, 2. David Hall, 3. Scott Vessy, 4. Jack Whetton, 5. Bryce Williams, 6. Hale T-Pole, 7. Dan Pryor, 8. Cam Goodhue, 9. Rhyan Caine, 10. Ash Moeke, 11. Mateo Malupo, 12. Derek Carpenter, 13. Rene Ranger, 14. Dan Caprice, 15. Orene Ai’i
Reserves: 16. Tone Kopenlani, 17. Justin Davies, 18. Peni Kaufusi, 19. Dan Faleafa, 20. Jack Ram, 21. Samisoni Fisilau, 22. Faatoina Autagavaia, 23. Matt Wright

Predicted finish in 2012: 7th​

North Harbour

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2011 record
: Played 10, won 2, lost 8 (14 points). 6th​ in Championship​

North Harbour had an incredibly disappointing 2011 season, finishing 2nd​ last on the table after winning only 2 of their 10 matches. This was an unacceptable performance for many North Harbour fans given the abundance of talented players that North Harbour have at their disposal. North Harbour will be hoping for a far more successful season in 2012, otherwise Head Coach Liam Barry’s job could well be on the line.

Even in the absence of All Black Tony Woodcock and the injured Anthony Boric, North Harbour have a solid starting tight-five, though do lack depth. James Parsons made a good impact for the Blues late in the season, while Ben Afeaki needs a strong season to push for inclusion in the All Blacks touring squad at the end of the year. Powerful number 8 Matt Luamanu is a massive loss for North Harbour, though they still possess a number of brusing loose forward options, including Solomon King, Malakai Ravulo, and ex-Counties player Vili Fikaki.

Chris Smylie is another major loss for North Harbour, though Under 20’s captain Bryn Hall has the potential to be an outstanding player at this level. Michael Hobbs arrival offsets the loss of first-five Ben Botica, while the signing of Francis Saili is a massive boost for North Harbour, with Saili looking outstanding for the Blues over the later half of the season. As usual North Harbour have an abundance of talent in the backline, with the likes of David Raikuna, Francis Saili, Rudi Wulf, Nafi Tuitavake, Codey Rei, and Pita Ah Ki all strong attacking players in their own rights, however backline chemistry is often an issue for North Harbour. Defense is another issue that North Harbour need to address this season, after conceding the most tries of any team last season (37), at an average of almost 4 tries per match.

Possible match-day 23:

1. James Afoa, 2. James Parsons, 3. Ben Afeaki, 4. Filo Paulo, 5. Chris Smith, 6. Solomon King, 7. Malakai Ravulo, 8. Vili Fikaki, 9. Brenton Helleur, 10. Michael Hobbs, 11. David Raikuna, 12. Francis Saili, 13. Rudi Wulf, 14. Nafi Tuitavake, 15. Codey Rei
Reserves: 16. Manu Leiataua, 17. Tai Vea, 18. Salesi Manu, 19. Irwin Finau, 20. Sam Hayes Stephenson, 21. Bryn Hall, 22. James Semple, 23. Pita Ah Ki

Predicted finish in 2012: 2nd​

Tasman

Tasman.png

2011 record
: Played 10, won 2, lost 8 (13 points). 7th​ in Championship​

Tasman had a disappointing season in 2011, finishing in last place in the Championship. Their season was not without highs though, with upset victories over Hawke’s Bay and Auckland, while they managed to push top Premiership sides Canterbury and Taranaki close. On the back of a strong preseason, Tasman will be looking for a much more successful season in 2012.

Despite losing Ben Franks to the All Blacks, Tasman still look to be strong up front, especially with the addition of experienced tighthead prop Campbell Johnstone. Prop depth is an issue though, with likely bench props Tim Perry and Michael Tyler yet to debut at this level. Filipo Levi and Joe Wheeler look to form an experienced locking combination, but the loose-forwards look very green. Under 20’s number Jordan Taufua (on loan from Canterbury) is an exciting addition, and is sure to provide Tasman with a lot of quality go-forward ball.

Steve Alfred is an experienced halfback, but the loss of first-five James Marshall is a major blow for Tasman. Tasman’s options at 10 are somewhat limited, with either regular fullback Robbie Malneek or new recruit Hayden Cripps the most likely candidates at the start in the 10 jeresy, though Crusaders utility Tom Marshall may be an option when he recovers from injury. Andrew Goodman will again lead the team from second-five, and his hard running, long-range goal kicking, and captaincy will be vital for Tasman. If Tasman are able to provide quality ball their outside backs they could cause a lot of damage, with James Lowe, Bryce Heem, Tom Marshall, Mitchell Scott, and Australian import Peter Betham all very dangerous with space to move.

Possible match-day 23:

1. Sam Prattley, 2. Quentin MacDonald, 3. Campbell Johnstone, 4. Filipo Levi, 5. Joe Wheeler, 6. Tevita Koloamatangi, 7. Shane Christie, 8. Jordan Taufua, 9. Steve Alfred, 10. Robbie Malneek, 11. Bryce Heem, 12. Andrew Goodman ©, 13. Kieron Fonotia, 14. Mitchell Scott, 15. Tom Marshall
Reserves: 16. Francis Smith, 17. Tim Perry, 18. Michael Tyler, 19. Tevita Cavubati, 20. Gary Redmond, 21. Jeremy Su’a, 22. Hayden Cripps, 23. Peter Betham

Predicted finish in 2012: 4th​
 
Good read, nice to see the 23's all compiled in one place.

Thanks. I will have the Premiership preview up this afternoon, and will attach a vBookie to both when the bookmakers finally get around to releasing some odds!
 
Thanks for the awesome preview, go Turbos my favorite ITM club since they signed Eric Fry.
 
Awesome work Darwin! Although I'll eat my hat if Otago finish above Manawatu..
 
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Awesome work Darwin! Although I'll eat my hat if Otago finish above Manawatu..

I will hold you to that hat eating comment ;)

I think the competition will be very tight this season, so found it very difficult to make predictions. Manawatu have relied so heavily on Smith and Cruden over the last couple of seasons I feel they will struggle without them to guide the ship (if they were both there I would pick Manawatu to win the division...). Looking forward to seeing how young Nathan George goes at first-five, as he is a very gutsy young player by all reports.

I actually think Otago will surprise the odd team this season - they have very much gone back to 'grass-roots' by selecting the best players out of club rugby. From what I have seen so far Otago look like they are set to play with a pretty expansive game plan, which will at least keep the supporters happy!
 
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I will hold you to that hat eating comment ;)

I think the competition will be very tight this season, so found it very difficult to make predictions. Manawatu have relied so heavily on Smith and Cruden over the last couple of seasons I feel they will struggle without them to guide the ship (if they were both there I would pick Manawatu to win the division...). Looking forward to seeing how young Nathan George goes at first-five, as he is a very gutsy young player by all reports.

I actually think Otago will surprise the odd team this season - they have very much gone back to 'grass-roots' by selecting the best players out of club rugby. From what I have seen so far Otago look like they are set to play with a pretty expansive game plan, which will at least keep the supporters happy!

Maybe I spoke too soon.. we really really missed the two Aaron's tonight. I like Otago, and the new direction they've taken, I hope they go well too.
 
Looks like Tasman have upset Canterbury with a last minute try!
 
I've just arrived back from Trafalgar Park. Outstanding result for the boys.

The last 10 minutes was an emotional roller-coaster; we had it won, then we lost it, then we won it again.
 
Looks like Tasman have upset Canterbury with a last minute try!


I think Tasman really deserved the win. Canterbury will really need to sort out their tight five issues while their All Blacks are away
 

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