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It's that time of year again, with a new season of the most exciting rugby tournament in the world about to kick off.
We're two seasons away from the next World Cup, meaning that although there's still time to force your way into selection, you've leaving it quite late to make yourself a realistic competitor for a 2015 jersey.
With the retirement of Andrew Hore and the emigration of Rene Ranger the picture is not quite as clouded as it was last year - there are fewer places available and fewer proven players to take up spots in the squad, so there won't be as many new caps as there were in 2013.
I think there are a large number of players who can be assured selection this year, injury permitting, regardless of form.
Safe:
Hooker - Mealamu, Coles
Prop - Franks, Woodcock, Crockett, Faumuina
Lock - Whitelock, Retallick
Loose Forward - McCaw, Read, Messam, Cane
Halfback - Smith
First Five - Carter, Cruden, Barrett
Centre - Nonu, Smith
Outside Back - Dagg, Smith, Piutau, Savea
That's 22 players, leaving room for eight more in the standard sized squad (I'm sure there'll be a few extras on the end of year tour, given the fact that we're likely to see some sort of exhibition match in the USA). With all certainty there will be a third hooker in the squad, a third lock, a fifth loose forward and probably one more prop. Of the four remaining spots, one will likely be taken up by another outside back, at least one will go to a halfback (though more likely we'll see three halfbacks in a squad of 30), and the final spot will probably go to one more back (a centre, I'd imagine).
There are multiple competitors for each spot, and some are likely very close to being included within the 'safe' contingent.
Hooker - Coltman, Marshall
These two are the only realistic options for filling in the third hooking berth. Both will be starting for their respective teams in the foreseeable future and therefore have the inside running over guys like Parsons and Funnell. Coltman has the most experience of the two and will likely be selected to back up Mealamu and Coles.
Prop - Franks, Moody, Toomaga-Allen, Afeaki
The most contested position (due to no one putting their hand up last year and cementing a spot), the props will be watched very closely by the selectors this year. Moody would have toured with the team last year were it not for a late injury and will therefore likely be top of the props at least to begin with. Franks has had a lot of time with the All Blacks and has yet to really prove himself while Afeaki's progress has been spoiled by injury. Toomaga-Allen could be considered a bit of a dark horse, even given his selection last year, as he can supposedly cover both sides of the scrum.
Lock - Romano, Bird
Injuries permitting, the third locking spot will certainly go to one of the above. Romano has a bit more experience, but Bird is viewed as a better long term option by most and is a better physical specimen. There is definitely a chance that both will make the cut, but with Luatua's likely inclusion in the squad the selectors may see three locks as all that's required. Romano is arguably a better complement to Whitelock and Retallick, so may get the go ahead on those grounds.
Loose Forward - Luatua, Kaino
Luatua is one of the borderline 'safe' candidates. He showed enough promise last year to be included in the group, the only mitigating factor being the return of 2011's player of the year. Six loose forwards will likely be seen as a luxury the All Blacks can't afford, and with Luatua's greater utility value he will probably make the cut. At this point in time Kaino is a complete unknown - sure he was fantastic a couple of years ago, but who knows whether or not his time in Japan has done him any good. Some people will expect to see Savea in the squad, but given that McCaw and Cane are definites, I don't think there will be room for a third openside flanker.
Halfback - Perenara, Kerr-Barlow
Self explanatory, really.
Centre - Saili, Crotty
Whilst there are other candidates that may fill this position, given the fact that these two are already capped and have spent time with the squad I think they will be the two contesting the final back spot. Crotty is more reliable whilst Saili has greater promise and a better all round game, but is still rough around the edges. If Saili can form a strong partnership in the midfield with Nonu at the Blues I think he will be selected. If it falls apart then Crotty will get the tap on the shoulder.
Outside Backs - Jane, Halai, McNicholl, Marshall
Much will depend on whether or not Jane looks back to his normal self this season. He's an easy selection if that's the case, and would likely be in the 'safe' squad were it not for his lack of game time last year. I personally think Halai won't push on, and like the look of McNicholl for the Crusaders. His ability to play both wing and fullback is also in his favour. Marshall is a bit of a left field call, but like McNicholl has a wide range of skills and could be a great bench player for the All Blacks.
All that really remains then is to have a look at what the likely squad for the matches against England will look like.
Hooker - Mealamu, Coles, Coltman
Prop - Franks, Woodcock, Crockett, Faumuina, Moody
Lock - Whitelock, Retallick, Romano
Loose Forward - McCaw, Read, Messam, Cane, Luatua
Halfback - Smith, Kerr-Barlow, Perenara
First Five - Cruden, Barrett
Centre - Nonu, Smith, Saili, Taylor
Outside Back - Dagg, Smith, Piutau, Savea, Jane
During the season I'll do a catch up every few weeks to see how the possibles are tracking along - I think we're in for a very exciting year of Super Rugby.
We're two seasons away from the next World Cup, meaning that although there's still time to force your way into selection, you've leaving it quite late to make yourself a realistic competitor for a 2015 jersey.
With the retirement of Andrew Hore and the emigration of Rene Ranger the picture is not quite as clouded as it was last year - there are fewer places available and fewer proven players to take up spots in the squad, so there won't be as many new caps as there were in 2013.
I think there are a large number of players who can be assured selection this year, injury permitting, regardless of form.
Safe:
Hooker - Mealamu, Coles
Prop - Franks, Woodcock, Crockett, Faumuina
Lock - Whitelock, Retallick
Loose Forward - McCaw, Read, Messam, Cane
Halfback - Smith
First Five - Carter, Cruden, Barrett
Centre - Nonu, Smith
Outside Back - Dagg, Smith, Piutau, Savea
That's 22 players, leaving room for eight more in the standard sized squad (I'm sure there'll be a few extras on the end of year tour, given the fact that we're likely to see some sort of exhibition match in the USA). With all certainty there will be a third hooker in the squad, a third lock, a fifth loose forward and probably one more prop. Of the four remaining spots, one will likely be taken up by another outside back, at least one will go to a halfback (though more likely we'll see three halfbacks in a squad of 30), and the final spot will probably go to one more back (a centre, I'd imagine).
There are multiple competitors for each spot, and some are likely very close to being included within the 'safe' contingent.
Hooker - Coltman, Marshall
These two are the only realistic options for filling in the third hooking berth. Both will be starting for their respective teams in the foreseeable future and therefore have the inside running over guys like Parsons and Funnell. Coltman has the most experience of the two and will likely be selected to back up Mealamu and Coles.
Prop - Franks, Moody, Toomaga-Allen, Afeaki
The most contested position (due to no one putting their hand up last year and cementing a spot), the props will be watched very closely by the selectors this year. Moody would have toured with the team last year were it not for a late injury and will therefore likely be top of the props at least to begin with. Franks has had a lot of time with the All Blacks and has yet to really prove himself while Afeaki's progress has been spoiled by injury. Toomaga-Allen could be considered a bit of a dark horse, even given his selection last year, as he can supposedly cover both sides of the scrum.
Lock - Romano, Bird
Injuries permitting, the third locking spot will certainly go to one of the above. Romano has a bit more experience, but Bird is viewed as a better long term option by most and is a better physical specimen. There is definitely a chance that both will make the cut, but with Luatua's likely inclusion in the squad the selectors may see three locks as all that's required. Romano is arguably a better complement to Whitelock and Retallick, so may get the go ahead on those grounds.
Loose Forward - Luatua, Kaino
Luatua is one of the borderline 'safe' candidates. He showed enough promise last year to be included in the group, the only mitigating factor being the return of 2011's player of the year. Six loose forwards will likely be seen as a luxury the All Blacks can't afford, and with Luatua's greater utility value he will probably make the cut. At this point in time Kaino is a complete unknown - sure he was fantastic a couple of years ago, but who knows whether or not his time in Japan has done him any good. Some people will expect to see Savea in the squad, but given that McCaw and Cane are definites, I don't think there will be room for a third openside flanker.
Halfback - Perenara, Kerr-Barlow
Self explanatory, really.
Centre - Saili, Crotty
Whilst there are other candidates that may fill this position, given the fact that these two are already capped and have spent time with the squad I think they will be the two contesting the final back spot. Crotty is more reliable whilst Saili has greater promise and a better all round game, but is still rough around the edges. If Saili can form a strong partnership in the midfield with Nonu at the Blues I think he will be selected. If it falls apart then Crotty will get the tap on the shoulder.
Outside Backs - Jane, Halai, McNicholl, Marshall
Much will depend on whether or not Jane looks back to his normal self this season. He's an easy selection if that's the case, and would likely be in the 'safe' squad were it not for his lack of game time last year. I personally think Halai won't push on, and like the look of McNicholl for the Crusaders. His ability to play both wing and fullback is also in his favour. Marshall is a bit of a left field call, but like McNicholl has a wide range of skills and could be a great bench player for the All Blacks.
All that really remains then is to have a look at what the likely squad for the matches against England will look like.
Hooker - Mealamu, Coles, Coltman
Prop - Franks, Woodcock, Crockett, Faumuina, Moody
Lock - Whitelock, Retallick, Romano
Loose Forward - McCaw, Read, Messam, Cane, Luatua
Halfback - Smith, Kerr-Barlow, Perenara
First Five - Cruden, Barrett
Centre - Nonu, Smith, Saili, Taylor
Outside Back - Dagg, Smith, Piutau, Savea, Jane
During the season I'll do a catch up every few weeks to see how the possibles are tracking along - I think we're in for a very exciting year of Super Rugby.
I agree with the names mentioned, and I think Brad Shields is not far behind. Matt Todd played well last season, but would require an injury to Cane or McCaw to get a look in (assuming Savea hasn't overtake him). Luke Braid would look good in Black, but he is a fair way down the pecking order. I still believe Victor Vito is easily the 2nd best 8 in the country, but there doesn't seem to be any room for him (especially if Kaino plays well at 8 for the Blues).
