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With the latest iteration of Super Rugby on our doorsteps it's that time again where we analyse the competition to pick out who is likely to make the step up from Super Rugby player to international super star.
2016 is an interesting year for all involved because it marks the first year in a World Cup cycle (with the Lions tour to NZ just around the corner too). When Hansen took over as head coach of the All Blacks in 2012 he blooded a number of new players immediately, with the likes of Brodie Retalick, Sam Cane, Aaron Smith and Beauden Barrett cementing themselves as world class players as the years went on. In all likelihood we'll see something similar in the first squad of 2016 with young players likely to be introduced to the mix. We probably won't see quite as many new caps, but there are definitely some areas where youth will be injected to bolster the squad and try to cover the losses of players such as McCaw and Nonu.
Guaranteed
Hookers (2) - Dane Coles, Codie Taylor
Props (4) - Owen Franks, Charlie Faumuina, Joe Moody, Wyatt Crockett
Locks (3) - Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Patrick Tuipulotu
Loose Forwards (3) - Kieran Read, Jerome Kaino, Sam Cane
Halfback (2) - Aaron Smith, Tawera Kerr-Barlow
First Fives (2) - Aaron Cruden, Beauden Barrett
Centres (1) - Malakai Fekitoa
Outside Backs (4) - Ben Smith, Julian Savea, Waisake Naholo, Nehe Milner-Skudder
Hookers
Contenders - James Parsons, Nathan Harris, Hika Elliot, Liam Coltman, Ash Dixon
Dane Coles is the incumbent, and Codie Taylor probably did enough during the World Cup to guarantee himself a spot in the first squad of the year. Nathan Harris is likely the next cab off the ranks. He was selected ahead of the other contenders back in 2014, and were it not for an injury suffered in his debut start he likely would have been at the World Cup ahead of Taylor. Even though Hika Elliot was arguably the top NZ hooker in Super Rugby last year he was ranked behind Taylor, and one can't help but think that the selectors simply don't see him as a viable option. Liam Coltman has been touted as a potential All Black for a while now, without ever really pressing ahead. It's likely this is his last chance to grab a spot, as there will be other promising players come through the ranks now. Ash Dixon is a bit of a wild card, as is James Parsons. They do the basics well, but you would have to think that the other options would trump them on potential.
Props
Contenders - Ofa Tu'ungafasi, Mitchell Graham, Pauliasi Manu, Reggie Goodes, Jeffery Toomaga-Allen,
Wildcard - Alex Hodgman
The usual brigade will likely be selected for the first squad, potentially with room for one more prop. Pauliasi Manu was brought into the All Blacks at the last minute at the last World Cup, while Toomaga-Allen hsa been capped before and Tu'ungafasi has trained with the squad in the past. Goodes had a strong season last year but I'm not sure if many see him as a realistic shot at making the squad. Alex Hodgman is my wild card pick, purely on the basis that he's a Crusader and they churn out props out of nowhere.
Locks
Contenders - Scott Barrett, Dominic Bird, James Broadhurst, Luke Romano
Luke Romano may be the incumbent, but he has never truly convinced as an All Black. Scott Barrett had a great debut season last year and is likely to push on, especially with regular starts. Dominic Bird has shifted north to the Chiefs but an injury will delay his Chiefs debut. Potentially a new home will bring out the best in him and his combination with Retallick will be great to see. Broadhurst earned his first cap last year but is struggling with concussion at the moment. If he can right himself then he will push hard. This is one of the most hotly contested spots.
Loose Forwards
Contenders - Steven Luatua, Akira Ioane, Brad Shields, Victor Vio, Ardie Savea, Blade Thomson, Matt Todd, Jordan Taufua, Elliot Dixon, Liam Squire
Akira Ioane and Ardie Savea will be All Blacks, the question is whether they will make the step up now or if Hansen will wait another season or two until they have fewer commitments (see: Sevens). Ioane in particular is an absolute ***an and if he can replicate his form for Auckland with the Blues then he will be hard to look past. Vito has likely played his last match for the All Blacks, given he will be heading overseas soon. Almost certainly we'll see someone selected to back up Cane, and that person is likely to be Matt Todd. With room for another loose forward, the last spot will likely be a shoot out between Ioane, Squire and Shields, though Luatua could slip in as a lock/loose forward cover depending on how he plays this year.
Halfbacks
Contenders - TJ Perenara, Brad Weber
Wildcard - Bryn Hall
Injury crises aside, it's hard to see someone other than Perenara or Weber being selected. Perenara may have the inside running, but given the way Weber has played over the last two years it will be a touch choice between the two. Perenara has an advantage given that he'll be starting week in and week out, but Weber's impact off the bench may be exactly what the All Blacks need.
First Fives
Contenders - Lima Sopoaga
Wildcard - Damian McKenzie
If the All Blacks want a third first five then it's hard to see Sopoaga missing selection. There's even a chance he'll make the cut ahead of Barrett. McKenzie will be an All Black at some point, but he's probably a year or two away from selection yet.
Centres
Contenders - George Moala, Rene Ranger, Charlie Ngatai, Seta Tamanivalu, Ryan Crotty
This is one of the most interesting selections. Nonu and Smith have been rocks in the midfield for the last eight years so we will be seeing a brand new combination at play. Crotty is a safe option but given it's the start of a new cycle you would have to think he will miss out to players with more potential. Charlie Ngatai, should he stay injury free, will make the cut. He has a different skill set to the other contenders and has improved consistently over the last couple of years. Depending on how his combination goes with Tamanivalu, we could see both of them make the cut. Moala made his debut last year while Ranger has been in and out of the squad for a number of reasons since he made the squad for the first time a few years back.
Outside Backs
Contenders - James Lowe, Israel Dagg, Patrick Osborne
Between Smith, Milner-Skudder and Barrett there is plenty of cover in the team at fullback, meaning Lowe and Osborne probably have the advantage over Dagg. With Savea and Naholo offering physical presences, Lowe may be a whisker ahead of Osborne. Were it not for injury last year he may well have earned his first cap at one point or another. His left boot certainly offers him a point of difference. Cory Jane's time at the highest level is likely over with younger players ready to take over.
Possible Squad
Hookers (3) - Dane Coles, Codie Taylor, Nathan Harris
Props (5) - Owen Franks, Charlie Faumuina, Joe Moody, Wyatt Crockett, Ofa Tu'ungafasi
Locks (4) - Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Patrick Tuipulotu, Dominic Bird
Loose Forwards (5) - Kieran Read, Jerome Kaino, Sam Cane, Akira Ioana, Matt Todd
Halfback (3) - Aaron Smith, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, TJ Perenara
First Fives (3) - Aaron Cruden, Beauden Barrett, Lima Sopoaga
Centres (3) - Malakai Fekitoa, Charlie Ngatai, Rene Ranger, George Moala
Outside Backs (5) - Ben Smith, Julian Savea, Waisake Naholo, Nehe Milner-Skudder, James Lowe
2016 is an interesting year for all involved because it marks the first year in a World Cup cycle (with the Lions tour to NZ just around the corner too). When Hansen took over as head coach of the All Blacks in 2012 he blooded a number of new players immediately, with the likes of Brodie Retalick, Sam Cane, Aaron Smith and Beauden Barrett cementing themselves as world class players as the years went on. In all likelihood we'll see something similar in the first squad of 2016 with young players likely to be introduced to the mix. We probably won't see quite as many new caps, but there are definitely some areas where youth will be injected to bolster the squad and try to cover the losses of players such as McCaw and Nonu.
Guaranteed
Hookers (2) - Dane Coles, Codie Taylor
Props (4) - Owen Franks, Charlie Faumuina, Joe Moody, Wyatt Crockett
Locks (3) - Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Patrick Tuipulotu
Loose Forwards (3) - Kieran Read, Jerome Kaino, Sam Cane
Halfback (2) - Aaron Smith, Tawera Kerr-Barlow
First Fives (2) - Aaron Cruden, Beauden Barrett
Centres (1) - Malakai Fekitoa
Outside Backs (4) - Ben Smith, Julian Savea, Waisake Naholo, Nehe Milner-Skudder
Hookers
Contenders - James Parsons, Nathan Harris, Hika Elliot, Liam Coltman, Ash Dixon
Dane Coles is the incumbent, and Codie Taylor probably did enough during the World Cup to guarantee himself a spot in the first squad of the year. Nathan Harris is likely the next cab off the ranks. He was selected ahead of the other contenders back in 2014, and were it not for an injury suffered in his debut start he likely would have been at the World Cup ahead of Taylor. Even though Hika Elliot was arguably the top NZ hooker in Super Rugby last year he was ranked behind Taylor, and one can't help but think that the selectors simply don't see him as a viable option. Liam Coltman has been touted as a potential All Black for a while now, without ever really pressing ahead. It's likely this is his last chance to grab a spot, as there will be other promising players come through the ranks now. Ash Dixon is a bit of a wild card, as is James Parsons. They do the basics well, but you would have to think that the other options would trump them on potential.
Props
Contenders - Ofa Tu'ungafasi, Mitchell Graham, Pauliasi Manu, Reggie Goodes, Jeffery Toomaga-Allen,
Wildcard - Alex Hodgman
The usual brigade will likely be selected for the first squad, potentially with room for one more prop. Pauliasi Manu was brought into the All Blacks at the last minute at the last World Cup, while Toomaga-Allen hsa been capped before and Tu'ungafasi has trained with the squad in the past. Goodes had a strong season last year but I'm not sure if many see him as a realistic shot at making the squad. Alex Hodgman is my wild card pick, purely on the basis that he's a Crusader and they churn out props out of nowhere.
Locks
Contenders - Scott Barrett, Dominic Bird, James Broadhurst, Luke Romano
Luke Romano may be the incumbent, but he has never truly convinced as an All Black. Scott Barrett had a great debut season last year and is likely to push on, especially with regular starts. Dominic Bird has shifted north to the Chiefs but an injury will delay his Chiefs debut. Potentially a new home will bring out the best in him and his combination with Retallick will be great to see. Broadhurst earned his first cap last year but is struggling with concussion at the moment. If he can right himself then he will push hard. This is one of the most hotly contested spots.
Loose Forwards
Contenders - Steven Luatua, Akira Ioane, Brad Shields, Victor Vio, Ardie Savea, Blade Thomson, Matt Todd, Jordan Taufua, Elliot Dixon, Liam Squire
Akira Ioane and Ardie Savea will be All Blacks, the question is whether they will make the step up now or if Hansen will wait another season or two until they have fewer commitments (see: Sevens). Ioane in particular is an absolute ***an and if he can replicate his form for Auckland with the Blues then he will be hard to look past. Vito has likely played his last match for the All Blacks, given he will be heading overseas soon. Almost certainly we'll see someone selected to back up Cane, and that person is likely to be Matt Todd. With room for another loose forward, the last spot will likely be a shoot out between Ioane, Squire and Shields, though Luatua could slip in as a lock/loose forward cover depending on how he plays this year.
Halfbacks
Contenders - TJ Perenara, Brad Weber
Wildcard - Bryn Hall
Injury crises aside, it's hard to see someone other than Perenara or Weber being selected. Perenara may have the inside running, but given the way Weber has played over the last two years it will be a touch choice between the two. Perenara has an advantage given that he'll be starting week in and week out, but Weber's impact off the bench may be exactly what the All Blacks need.
First Fives
Contenders - Lima Sopoaga
Wildcard - Damian McKenzie
If the All Blacks want a third first five then it's hard to see Sopoaga missing selection. There's even a chance he'll make the cut ahead of Barrett. McKenzie will be an All Black at some point, but he's probably a year or two away from selection yet.
Centres
Contenders - George Moala, Rene Ranger, Charlie Ngatai, Seta Tamanivalu, Ryan Crotty
This is one of the most interesting selections. Nonu and Smith have been rocks in the midfield for the last eight years so we will be seeing a brand new combination at play. Crotty is a safe option but given it's the start of a new cycle you would have to think he will miss out to players with more potential. Charlie Ngatai, should he stay injury free, will make the cut. He has a different skill set to the other contenders and has improved consistently over the last couple of years. Depending on how his combination goes with Tamanivalu, we could see both of them make the cut. Moala made his debut last year while Ranger has been in and out of the squad for a number of reasons since he made the squad for the first time a few years back.
Outside Backs
Contenders - James Lowe, Israel Dagg, Patrick Osborne
Between Smith, Milner-Skudder and Barrett there is plenty of cover in the team at fullback, meaning Lowe and Osborne probably have the advantage over Dagg. With Savea and Naholo offering physical presences, Lowe may be a whisker ahead of Osborne. Were it not for injury last year he may well have earned his first cap at one point or another. His left boot certainly offers him a point of difference. Cory Jane's time at the highest level is likely over with younger players ready to take over.
Possible Squad
Hookers (3) - Dane Coles, Codie Taylor, Nathan Harris
Props (5) - Owen Franks, Charlie Faumuina, Joe Moody, Wyatt Crockett, Ofa Tu'ungafasi
Locks (4) - Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Patrick Tuipulotu, Dominic Bird
Loose Forwards (5) - Kieran Read, Jerome Kaino, Sam Cane, Akira Ioana, Matt Todd
Halfback (3) - Aaron Smith, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, TJ Perenara
First Fives (3) - Aaron Cruden, Beauden Barrett, Lima Sopoaga
Centres (3) - Malakai Fekitoa, Charlie Ngatai, Rene Ranger, George Moala
Outside Backs (5) - Ben Smith, Julian Savea, Waisake Naholo, Nehe Milner-Skudder, James Lowe
