All Blacks squad for the Lions named on the 8th... predictions?

[bredowski]

New Zeland have very good talent in the backline.Who do you think will make the team?I think these are the options atm:
-9: TJ Perenara /Aaron Smith /Kerr Barlow
-10:Beauden Barret (he is just amazing) /Aaron Cruden
-11:Julian Savea /Naholo
-12: Sonny Bill Williams /Jordie Barret / Lienert Brown
-13:Fekitoa /Ioane
-14: Dagg /Vince Aso (really good with the hurricanes till now)/Milner- Skudder
-15:Ben Smith /Damien Mckenzie

Some players can play in more than one position.I think there should be a combination of young blood and experience.
What do you think?

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

9. Smith/Perenara. Unless those 2 are injured then K-B has no chance and I'd have thought Pulu's still ahead of him.

10. Barrett/Cruden. I prefer Sopoaga to Cruden but Hansen doesn't. Barrett hasn't been in as electric form lately so it'll be interesting to see if Cruden's goal kicking puts him ahead.

12/13. SBW, Crotty, ALB, Moala, J. Barrett, Laumape, Fekitoa, Ioane. Some seriously hard choices in there and I'd have thought the pairing is going to rely hugely on form due to that. Personally would go with ALB-Fekitoa. I'm sure some agree and many disagree.

11/14. Savea, Dagg, Naholo, Smith, Aso, NMS. Again, seriously hate decision to make here. Personally would go Naholo-NMS if fit, if not then Dagg.

15. Smith. Easy

 

[TheSaffycen]

9.Perenara, TKB is playing very well ATM, Smith is also playing well. Any of them would be the lions starter imo.
10.Barrett, he is scary good. Only goal kicking is a problem but he's crazy good everywhere else. Cruden is also very good and is more than a match for most teams.
12.Crotty was very underrated for a long while but now he's getting alot more credit. I'd say he should start as he's very smart and safe. ALB is a class player, he and SBW are both game winners. Doesn't really matter which one you pick.
13.ALB at 13, he or Fekitoa are dangerous. If JJ and Henshaw are playing I'd pick ALB as his offloading will be more of a threat than Fekitoas power.
11.Savea, i think in the big game he will score tries. NMS is possibly the best winger in the world so he'd be on the other side. Anyone they have would be dangerous.
15.Smuth
9.Perenara 10.Barrett 11.Savea 12.Crotty 13.ALB 14.NMS
15.Smith
21.Smith 22.Cruden 23.Fekitoa

 

[Makos]

1st test I'm expecting to see continuity from last year. 2nd and 3rd test might be a few alterations.

9.Aaron Smith will start, with TJ coming on later. Pulu could probably get a call up over TKB & rightly so.
10.Barrett with Cruden/McKenzie on the bench, Sopoaga 4th choice
11.Savea starts & 2nd choice is Naholo
12.ALB & Crotty sharing the spot.
13.ALB/SBW/Moala/Fekitoa take your pick depending on what you want. I'd like to see a ALB & SBW/Fekitoa with Moala as bench impact combination.
14.NMS when he's fit is the best 14 in the world, might see R.Ioane get some game time here & Dagg.
15.B.Smith & Dagg, McKenzie might see a bit of game time

In the first test injuries permitting;

9.A.Smith
10.B.Barrett
11.J.Savea
12.Crotty
13.ALB
14.NMS
15.B.Smith

Res; TJ, Cruden, Fekitoa/SBW/Moala

Moala might have an edge this season, being able to play wing & with Barrett & NMS & Dagg all being able to slip back into fullback. So a bench looking like this won't surprise me; TJ, Cruden, Moala

SBW is a difficult one, he brings a lot of experience & a killer offload, but our centres have been developing well and coming into their own & to drop one of them down the pecking order would be tough. I think SBW Blues form might play a large part in whether Hansen wants to continue to push forward with him. I think his cool head & experience is valuable though & he should 100% be in the frame.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

SBW as a centre/13? Has he ever played there for the ABs? I've only seen him play 12.

 

[bredowski]

SBW as a centre/13? Had he ever played there for the ABs? I've only seen him play 12.

Never saw SBW at 13 too... i think a pairing of SBW and Fekitoa would be perfect.SBW creating the breaks with his offload ability, then Fekitoa with his power and plenty of space...

 

[BobbyM]

I'd much prefer seeing TJ at half-back over Smith. I feel he's been more consistent over the last 12 months, and assuming Murray is the 9, is able to match his opposite number physically. I also like his link-up with BB.

Centre partnership wise I doubt we'll get any sort of consensus before the tests. So many players could fit into those 2 positions and perform well. Wings Savea and whoever is making the most line breaks. Do people think Damien Mackenzie should be in the 23 for one of the tests? Would love to see him continue his AB exposure

 

[Caitlyn Jenner]

I'm pretty sure this is the preferred line-up, if all are available:

9. Smith
10. Barrett
11. Savea
12. SBW
13. ALB
14. NMS
15. Smith

21. Perenara
22. Cruden
23. Dagg / Moala

While Perenara has been awesome for a long period now, if Smith is playing like we know he can then he is a lock-in. His direction and especially his quickness are second-to-none and we all know how highly Shag rates him. He also looks like he's now getting back the form he had prior to the incident, so I think he's a safe bet to be the preferred 9.

Barrett needs no explanation really. He did have a slightly slow start to the season, but has put that behind him now and there's no doubt he's the best first-five, just such a freak. Cruden's a great player too and his experience could be vital towards the end of a tight game, hence why he's on the bench. It's also pretty clear that Shag favours him to Sopoaga.

The most contentious area of this line-up is the centers. SBW and ALB are both great offloaders with good game sense and all-round skillset, so are great for creating opportunities, but they don't have the raw physical x-factor of others. The main 2 guys who do have this are Laumape and Moala. People may argue Fekitoa too, but he is overrated imo. He doesn't have the size or speed of the other two, nor does he have the game sense and his skillset is on par at best. The only area where he may have the edge is defence, but the other two are good enough defenders, so Fekitoa is out of the equation for me. Some would also say Ioane, but he's certainly not on that level yet. He's only just turned 20 and while he has awesome natural attributes, he doesn't have the all-round game to be an ABs center yet. His best bet at test level would be the wing, but I don't see any room for him there. The other guy in the midfield fold is Crotty, but I honestly don't see him getting a run during the series. There's just too much talent there now and unfortunately, for all his experience and consistency, he doesn't offer as much as the others.
So, for me, the 4 main contenders are SBW, ALB, Laumape and Moala. Ideally you'd have a combo of one playmaker (SBW or ALB) and one x-factor runner (Laumape or Moala) for the sake of balance. Given their personal positions, this would therefore mean either a combo of Laumape 12, ALB 13 or SBW 12, Moala 13. The problem is that SBW and ALB are our proven two best midfielders, so I don't see either one them not being picked, meaning we'll have two guys awesome at creating opportunities but neither of them will have that punch of x-factor to take full advantage of it. This isn't really an issue though, as we have more than enough raw x-factor in the rest of that backline.
Of course this may change as the season progresses. I am a massive fan of Laumape and he is the form midfielder in the comp atm. If he keeps it up and SBW doesn't get up to speed for the Blues, then we may well see a young pairing of Laumape/ALB going up against the Lions, which would be pretty exciting but also slightly worrying lol. Same goes for Moala vs ALB. Still, I don't really see it happening and am pretty sure it'll be 12. SBW, 13. ALB.

The wings could also be debated a bit, but if Savea and NMS are fit and playing like they should, then they are the best wingers in the world. It's tough on Dagg because he was awesome last year and was awesome this year before he got injured. You just can't look past a fit and firing NMS on the right wing though, he's too good. As for the left, the top contenders to Savea are Naholo and arguably Lowe, but the selectors seem to want a blockbusting X-factor left winger, so probs just Naholo, though I am a big fan of Lowe. Savea has been back to top form this year and Naholo got injured (again) early, so Savea is pretty much a lock-in at this point. Personally, I always thought Naholo was a bit overrated anyway. There's also the possibility that Dagg could be considered as a left wing too, but as long as Savea keeps playing well, the left wing is his.

Ben Smith = fullback.

- - - Updated - - -

Do people think Damien Mackenzie should be in the 23 for one of the tests? Would love to see him continue his AB exposure

I would love to see him in there too, he's such a talent, is in awesome form and is only getting better. Unfortunately there's just no room for him in the top 23 atm. If it comes to the 3rd test and we're 2-0 up then I think giving him a run would be a good option but, as much as I like him, he shouldn't in the top 23.

 

[Buffalomu]

9. Smith
10. B.Barrett
11. Savea
12. Laumape
13. ALB
14. Smith
15. J.Barrett

21. Perenara
22. Crotty
23. Dagg

 

[Maverick1987]

It looks like our centres are going to be Roberts and Teo so as long as you put someone at centre who can tackle and don't worry about our wingers .... they won't see the ball anyway ....

 

[Five Meters Out]

My thinking is the All Black selectors will use SBW as a sub just as they did in the World Cup Final. He's just so good as an impact player. He's also a better player when he has Cruden inside of him, so I'd fancy Cruden to come on in tandem middle of 2nd half.
Jordie Barrett has the look of a 'Milner-Skudder - 2015 World Cup' type about him. He is just so multi talented and can cover many positions. I really feel he will get selected ahead of Damien McKenzie as a utility sub. However there is likely no room for either in the First Test.
Having just made a case for a roughy, the AB coaches are loyal, so I largely agree with the team Makos selected. However Milner Skudder looks most unlikely to be fit, so it's
9. A Smith
10. B Barrett
11. J Savea
12. R Crotty
13. A Lienert-Brown
14. I Dagg
15. B Smith

Subs. TJ Perenara, A Cruden, SB Williams,

 

[Larksea]

9, Perenara - Smith
10, BBarrett - Cruden
11, Naholo - Savea
12, SBW (hes looking ok but needs to improve, should come with gametime) - Crotty/JBarrett
13, ALB - Moala
14, Dagg - Duffie
15, B. Smith - Mckenzie

I think Perenara remains ahead of Smith, and with the established combination he has with Barrett I would start him. TKB is also in phenominal form and may have a role to play, he has signed overseas which may count against him. But with Weber injured that probably assures him selection. Pulu has been very good but needs some work on his kicking and option taking IMO. So much tallent at 9, I dont think NZ has ever had this much depth.
Barrett is a no brainer, Cruden is playing very well. If Sopoaga hadn't spent so much time injured I would have liked to pick him on loyalty. Though his defence is not quite up to the standard of Barrett/Cruden.
In a straight shootout between Naholo and Savea I would take Naholo for his consistency and ability to create, Savea is more of an "end of the backline" winger IMO, Naholo gets involved and makes things happen and hes just as good at finishing.. When you are dominating a team Savea can be punishing. When you need to regain mommentum in a game Naholo is the guy you want - I think that is much more important.
SBW is looking ok but needs to improve to secure his spot, he just looks a bit rusty/unsure of himself. Jordie Barrett is an attractive option because of his overall skillset, utility and goal kicking. jordie looks like the type of player that will just slot straight into test rugby no worries, he has taken to super rugby so easily and performed pretty much flawlessly. Crotty is a dependable option.
ALB, well he had an amazing year last year, fantastic transition to test footy. He has been good this year without really making the impact he did last season. But I still think he has it in him to perform for the AB's when needed. Moala has been brilliant for the blues again. Most consistent blues back for the last 3 or so years. I rate him ahead of Fekitoa.
Dagg provides good balance to having Naholo or Savea on the other wing. he has been injured though, not sure what state he is in?
I really like what I see from Matt Duffie, the guy is brilliant at returning the ball, has all the skills great vision and finishing, even some really nice kicks. he's very tall which I think is a huge asset in test rugby, Aso has scored a lot of tries but IMO Duffie has been NZ's form 14 this year in super rugby. NMS is a great player but I think he has holes in his game, he is also quite short and importantly he has spent a lot of time injured so we really haven't been able to see how he is developing.
Ben Smith goes without saying really. he is the leader in the backline for the AB's, on Raw form McKenzie has overtaken him but Smiths experience and cool head are vital.
McKenzie - I think its safe to say without a doubt that McKenzie is the form 15 in super rugby, maybe in world rugby. His stats are amazing, this year he has complemented his superb attacking game with pretty much flawless high ball work, defense and positioning. The All Blacks pioneered the 23 man game and I hope McKenzie is heavily involved, I cant see the lions being prepared to contain him.

Overall I think the depth and talent we have to work with is amazing, we well and truely have the players to tear the Lions to bits. My concern is that we have kinda been very unsettled, we have not been able to establish a first choice backline since the last WC. Mostly due to injuries. SBW was out for a long time, Crotty got injured for a while, Moala seems to get injured soon after we see how much potential he has at test level. Savea & Fekitoa's form has been up and down. Naholo has been injured, Dagg has been injured, NMS has been injured. Aaron Smith had his off-field issues. Combined with the rise of two undeniable talents in McKenzie and Jordie Barrett has all kinda prevented the all blacks backline from settling post WC.

in 2015 the #1 backline picked itself:
smith, carter, savea, nonu, smith, ????, Smith

now its:
????, Barrett, ????, ????, ????, ????, Ben Smith

Conservative option?:
Smith, Barrett, Savea, Crotty, Fekitoa, Dagg, Smith

Super Rugby Form Option?:
TKB, Barrett, Lowe, Laumape, Moala, Duffie, McKenzie

shout out to James Lowe, hes been without question the form 11 in NZ rugby for about 4 years now and improved every year without fail. He will surely go down as the best 11 NZ has produced to not get to play for the All Blacks. Can't really blame him for signing overseas. He's won super rugby ***les with the chiefs, all that is left for him is to make the AB's yet for him it seems being the best hasn't been good enough to get the call. Despite being in awesome form again this year the chance of him finally getting selected for the lions tour are slim to none unfortunately.

 

[Five Meters Out]

In regard to Lienert-Brown - I like those players who have proven themselves at Test level and just seem to be doing enough in Super Rugby. He could be the new Nonu. If so expect him to really step up when he returns to the All Blacks.

 

[Larksea]

I do think ALB will come good for the AB's, I think part of the reason he hasn't made the same impact for the chiefs is that midfield has been unsettled, started with Faauli at 12 and it didn't really work, ALB moved to 12 for a game and things looked much better. Donald has been used at 12 and while at least he did a brilliant job on defense and had a very good workrate it kinda struggled to fit into the high tempo running game used by the likes of ALB, McKenzie, Stephenson etc... Now McNicol has been used at 13... The chefs midfield has changed almost every game.

I actually think Moala is like that as well, we know the blues have a problem at 10 Ionae looked amazing in the season opener at 13 but has genuinely struggled since, give Moala a chance to play outside a world class 10 in a quality back line with the AB's and he shines. he is a better player than the Blues form in general suggests. Heck can you imagine Moala playing outside Cruden and inside ALB at the Chiefs????? That would be an insane backline...

 

[Caitlyn Jenner]

My thinking is the All Black selectors will use SBW as a sub just as they did in the World Cup Final. He's just so good as an impact player. He's also a better player when he has Cruden inside of him, so I'd fancy Cruden to come on in tandem middle of 2nd half.

Actually a very valid point. It's yet to be seen how SBW would work with Barrett and he certainly would be a good tandem sub with Cruden. I still get the feeling though that if SBW is fit and playing well, he's just a better player than Crotty and thus has to be picked. Your thinking makes a lot of sense though so it wouldn't durprise me if the selectors went this way, though I hope they don't.

Jordie Barrett has the look of a 'Milner-Skudder - 2015 World Cup' type about him. He is just so multi talented and can cover many positions. I really feel he will get selected ahead of Damien McKenzie as a utility sub.

McKenzie is arguably having a better season than Jordie, So I doubt this will happen. Also Milner-Skudder was clearly the best player in a postion where we didn't have many people putting their hands up. This certainly isn't the case with Jordie.

 

[Caitlyn Jenner]

In a straight shootout between Naholo and Savea I would take Naholo for his consistency and ability to create, Savea is more of an "end of the backline" winger IMO, Naholo gets involved and makes things happen and hes just as good at finishing.. When you are dominating a team Savea can be punishing. When you need to regain mommentum in a game Naholo is the guy you want - I think that is much more important.

I tend to disagree. For sure Naholo has a better work rate, but I don't think he's as a good a finisher, which is probs the most important attribute for our left winger. I also think Savea has better ball skills and (usually) makes better decisions. There may be a bit of bias in this though because I've always been a big Savea fan and genuinely never rated Naholo lol, he just doesn't do it for me. Same goes for Fekitoa actually.

ALB, well he had an amazing year last year, fantastic transition to test footy. He has been good this year without really making the impact he did last season. But I still think he has it in him to perform for the AB's when needed. Moala has been brilliant for the blues again. Most consistent blues back for the last 3 or so years. I rate him ahead of Fekitoa.

SPOT ON!

Dagg provides good balance to having Naholo or Savea on the other wing. he has been injured though, not sure what state he is in?
I really like what I see from Matt Duffie, the guy is brilliant at returning the ball, has all the skills great vision and finishing, even some really nice kicks. he's very tall which I think is a huge asset in test rugby, Aso has scored a lot of tries but IMO Duffie has been NZ's form 14 this year in super rugby. NMS is a great player but I think he has holes in his game, he is also quite short and importantly he has spent a lot of time injured so we really haven't been able to see how he is developing.
Ben Smith goes without saying really. he is the leader in the backline for the AB's, on Raw form McKenzie has overtaken him but Smiths experience and cool head are vital.
McKenzie - I think its safe to say without a doubt that McKenzie is the form 15 in super rugby, maybe in world rugby. His stats are amazing, this year he has complemented his superb attacking game with pretty much flawless high ball work, defense and positioning.

Dagg is expected back early May so will have time to prove himself, but will need to get straight back into his work!
Again I completely agree with pretty much everything you've said. Duffy, along with Laumape, is the guy who has come from nowhere an impressed me the most this year. There's just nothing to not like about his game, and he's playing awesome and I'm sure he'd do well at test level. Unfortunately I don't see him getting a go given all the established back 3 depth we have, but if he did get picked it would be a pleasant surprise!
Also, McKenzie has been awesome. I've seen a few suggestions that he will/should be dropped for Jordie which, imo, are stupid. No doubt Jordie is exciting but with the form he's in right now and what he offers, McKenzie picks himself.

shout out to James Lowe, hes been without question the form 11 in NZ rugby for about 4 years now and improved every year without fail. He will surely go down as the best 11 NZ has produced to not get to play for the All Blacks. Can't really blame him for signing overseas. He's won super rugby ***les with the chiefs, all that is left for him is to make the AB's yet for him it seems being the best hasn't been good enough to get the call. Despite being in awesome form again this year the chance of him finally getting selected for the lions tour are slim to none unfortunately.

Yes! It's honestly such a shame that he hasn't and probably never will be an All Black. He has more than deserved it.

 

[The Jones Boy]

With SBW I also feel that size matters.
Crotty is still a small guy in a backline where the 9 and 10 are small guys. SBW brings a massive hulking frame to the backline and he can hold two defenders and get away an offload. His defence is stellar and if there's too many small guys you know that Gatland will keep running the channel between 9 and 12 all game long with enormous beasts if they play Crotty outside Barrett. SBW brings a safety factor against that kind of approach.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

My thoughts;

(#) (player) ('certainty factor)
9 Smith 1 / Perenara 1 / Kerr-Barlow 1
10 Barrett 3
11 Savea 3 (I have Lowe out because of his immanent departure- what a player not to be playing on the international arena!)
12 Lienert-Brown 1 / Crotty 1 / Laumape 1 I don't think the Blues centers will be in line for the centers everything considered, t least not starting. That said I also doubt Hansen wil give Laumape a debut in the first match but I wouldn't be surprised if he played in game 3 assuming the Lions don't make it a series decider.
13 Lienert-Bronwn 1 / Fekitoa 1
14 Dagg 1 / NMS (will he be fit though?) 1 / take your pick.. I like the look of Aso et al but think with block busters elsewhere across the park Hansen will go for a wing cum fullback at 14. Might we even see Smith or McKenzie here? Probably not.
15 Smith 2 / McKenzie 2

I dont think the uncertainty surrounding the centres means there isn't clear choices, more that the fringe players have just been pushing so hard and there is crazy depth there. Its a coin toss IMO to say who might be up for it on the day more so than any other option.

 

[BobbyM]

Interestingly no chat about Vince Aso. He's been slicing through defences this season, can cover multiple positions (both centres, both wings) and is only 22.

 

[Larksea]

I think Aso, Laumape and Proctor have all been very good but at the same time they have had the advantage of playing outside Bauden Barrett who is absolutely on fire this season. Hes cutting defenses to shreds and coming up with 3, 4, 5+ odd try assists a game.

Of course that doesn't mean that that should automatically be ruled out... just when comparing them to other players it needs to be put in perspective. Rather than focusing on their highlight reels you kinda need to look at their skill sets and focus on how they perform under pressure, the decisions they make and the skills they use. When I do that I see more good signs from proctor & Jordie barrett than Aso & Laumape. I think right now Aso & Laumape seem to rely more on pure physicality which can be harder to transfer to the test arena.

All that aside, going straight into a lions tour may not be a good calling for Aso or Laumape as an introduction to test rugby... Proctor has a lot more experience at this level to call on and Jordie Barrett while very young did go on tour with the AB's and just looks made for test rugby.

i think its well known that players can often have a big first year on the scene when they are fresh and kinda unknown so defenses aren't prepared for them, then struggle when oppositions adjust and the pressure comes on. I think you do need to wait and see with Aso & Laumape. They are young and if they keep this up they will both get their chance.

That for me is another reason why Damien McKenzie is an even more attractive option. He had a great freshman/debut year last year, had a big workload and had a huge amount of attention around him, Made the All Blacks and get his test debut. Yet while oppositions teams know him now and he is in that dreaded sophomore period when the honeymoon is over. yet he is playing better than ever, hes just as dynamic on attack and he has smoothed out the weak points in his game. he was brilliant last year but still behind Ben Smith as NZ's premier fullback. This year there is no doubt McKenzie is the #1 form fullback.

the thing is with McKenzie that it seems pretty certain his future lies at 10. Cruden will finish with the chiefs this year and Damien will surely take over, it is his preferred position and he is bloody good there too. maybe he will be seen like Barrett as a guy who can play 10 and 15, yet right now because he hasn't had many chances to play at 10 its unlikely he will play there for the AB's..