Only a few hours to go now before the Sevens starts up - I'm really looking forward to it. Just thought I'd breakdown who I think will go through the pool stages etc:
Group A (Canada, Guyana, New Zealand, Scotland): I'm obviously expecting New Zealand to win the pool, but the battle for second between Scotland and Canada will be interesting. Its good to see big Justin Mensah-Coker playing for Canada - I think he could do a lot of damage with his size and pace. I'm going to predict Canada to win beat Scotland in a close match, though wouldn't be surprised to see Scotland beat Canada.
Group B (India, South Africa, Tonga, Wales): South Africa were relatively disappointing in the Sevens world series this year (finishing sixth), and have quite a few players ruled out through injury (Frankie Horne, Mpho Mbiyozo, Neil Powell, Kyle Brown, Sampie Mastriet, Branco du Preez). However they do still have some quality sevens players such as Chase Minnaar, Paul Delport, and Ryno Benjamin, and as such should start as favourites to take out the group, however the likes of Wales or Tonga could cause an upset. The battle between Wales and Tonga will also be interesting - I'm not familiar with many names in the Tonga team, but they typically put out pretty strong teams for the commonwealth games. The Welsh team looks reasonably strong to me - Richie Pugh is a very good sevens player, and I will be interested to see how youngsters Tom Prydie and Kristian Phillips. I'm South Africa to take out the group, with Wales edging out Tonga for second place.
Group C (Kenya, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, Samoa): I'd expect Samoa to comfortably take out this group, with Kenya in second. Samoa will be missing their star playmaker Uale Mai, who is off playing professional rugby in Spain - he will be a huge loss to them. Despite this they still have a very strong team featuring the likes of Ofisa Treviranus and Simaika Mikaele in the forwards, with Lolo Lui and Mikkaele Pesamino (top try scorer on the sevens circuit this year) in the backs. Kenya has an experienced team, that should be too good for Papua New Guinea an Malaysia.
Group D (Australia, England, Sri Lanka, Uganda): Two horse race here, between Australia and England. Australia will probably start as slight favourites, however I have feeling England may get the better of them. The Australian team is loaded with attacking talent with the likes of Nick Cummins, Lachie Turner, Kimani Sitauti and Luke Morahan, however I don't think they have enough quality forwards to secure the ball. In their forwards they only really have two recognized 'fetchers' in Pat McCutcheon and Liam Gill - while these two are both exceptional sevens players, I think they would have befitted in having a few more forwards in their squad. In contrast I think the English squad is much better balanced, with established forwards such as Isoa Damudamu, James Rodwell, and Chris Cracknell, exceptional playmakers in Kevin Barrett and Ben Gollings, and some young talented backs such as Dan Caprice and Daniel Norton. I'm picking England to win the pool, with Australia in second.
Overall I'm picking New Zealand to win (beating Samoa in the final), but am not overly confident - indeed if Samoa had Uale Mai in their squad I'd actually pick them as favourites. Much will depend on whether the likes of Tamasi Cama and DJ Forbes are up to full fitness after recovering from their injuries. I'm picking England to beat South Africa in the play-off for bronze.
I think New Zealand will start the following team for the key matches:
Forbes, Raikabula, Messem, Cama, Smith/Arnold/Baker, Stowers, Gear.
Not sure yet who they will pick out of Smith, Arnold, and Baker - personally I'd choose Smith, but he lacks the sevens experience of the other two. Souness would be the unlucky one not to start, but I feel he would be a key man to come off the bench to replace either Messem or Forbes. Guildford, and the two of Smith/Arnold/Baker that don't start could also be key men off the bench against tiring defenses.
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