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[COVID-19] General Discussion

duncanb

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Of course that’s why they are holding so many sporting events like the premiership, with so many crowds, Glastonbury and Wimbledon. Oh wait they are not. Of course it’s about risk and being closely packed outside is still more risk than indoors. But behaviour when outside matters and no I don’t agree that there was social distancing on that beach in Bournemouth no matter how many different camera angles.

Spikes will happen and there were peeps traveling from Birmingham. You cannot say they certainly did not catch it and spread it when they return home. That is the point there isn’t enough evidence yet. It doesn’t mean ergo no evidence we can go about are daily lives as normal and “each to their own.” There is still a duty of care we owe to each other not to become careless because whilst a Majority who catch it may not suffer the effects of it badly there are those who will or do I have to remind you of that? And it is is those more vulnerable people we should not forget because too many have died or suffering long term lung damage which is only beginning to be understood.
Comparing impromptu out door gatherings to organized events is apple's and pears.
Why because Glasto etc shared toilets etc, singing shouting + logistics of cancellation has to be made months in advance.
WHO our own Virologist from Cambridge uni have also said as all viruses the chance of contacting are minimal outside as natural ventilation disperses it quickly.
Of course that’s why they are holding so many sporting events like the premiership, with so many crowds, Glastonbury and Wimbledon. Oh wait they are not. Of course it’s about risk and being closely packed outside is still more risk than indoors. But behaviour when outside matters and no I don’t agree that there was social distancing on that beach in Bournemouth no matter how many different camera angles.

Spikes will happen and there were peeps traveling from Birmingham. You cannot say they certainly did not catch it and spread it when they return home. That is the point there isn’t enough evidence yet. It doesn’t mean ergo no evidence we can go about are daily lives as normal and “each to their own.” There is still a duty of care we owe to each other not to become careless because whilst a Majority who catch it may not suffer the effects of it badly there are those who will or do I have to remind you of that? And it is is those more vulnerable people we should not forget because too many have died or suffering long term lung damage which is only beginning to be understood.
I guess we just agree to disagree on this.
I've posted numerous times or should I on behalf of Mrsduncanb that unfortunately this virus Harvested the old and vulnerable both of us aren't going to disagree on this.
2015 saw 40,000 flu related deaths to exact same category as covid19 I UK alone.
I fully respect your choice to be indoors to protect the vulnerable , however I believe we really need to get back up and going and yes live with this virus.
On a salutary note sometimes we have to except that death is part of life, no life is risk free, each individual makes there own choices wether it effects others or not.
In end the masses will decide not elected bodies.
I fully respect your stance once again however can't except it personally.
NB. old fart ex heart attack so in theory I should be more worried than most but then grew up seeing people who were inflicted by Polio now that is scary.
 

TRF_Olyy

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2015 saw 40,000 flu related deaths to exact same category as covid19
Such a **** comparison

40k in a year vs 43k deaths....in three months...WHILE ON LOCKDOWN
 

duncanb

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Of course that’s why they are holding so many sporting events like the premiership, with so many crowds, Glastonbury and Wimbledon. Oh wait they are not. Of course it’s about risk and being closely packed outside is still more risk than indoors. But behaviour when outside matters and no I don’t agree that there was social distancing on that beach in Bournemouth no matter how many different camera angles.

Spikes will happen and there were peeps traveling from Birmingham. You cannot say they certainly did not catch it and spread it when they return home. That is the point there isn’t enough evidence yet. It doesn’t mean ergo no evidence we can go about are daily lives as normal and “each to their own.” There is still a duty of care we owe to each other not to become careless because whilst a Majority who catch it may not suffer the effects of it badly there are those who will or do I have to remind you of that? And it is is those more vulnerable people we should not forget because too many have died or suffering long term lung damage which is only beginning to be understood.
Comparing impromptu out door gatherings to organized events is apple's and pears.
Why because Glasto etc shared toilets etc, singing shouting + logistics of cancellation has to be made months in advance.
WHO our own Virologist from Cambridge uni have also said as all viruses the chance of contacting are minimal outside as natural ventilation disperses it quickly.
Of course that’s why they are holding so many sporting events like the premiership, with so many crowds, Glastonbury and Wimbledon. Oh wait they are not. Of course it’s about risk and being closely packed outside is still more risk than indoors. But behaviour when outside matters and no I don’t agree that there was social distancing on that beach in Bournemouth no matter how many different camera angles.

Spikes will happen and there were peeps traveling from Birmingham. You cannot say they certainly did not catch it and spread it when they return home. That is the point there isn’t enough evidence yet. It doesn’t mean ergo no evidence we can go about are daily lives as normal and “each to their own.” There is still a duty of care we owe to each other not to become careless because whilst a Majority who catch it may not suffer the effects of it badly there are those who will or do I have to remind you of that? And it is is those more vulnerable people we should not forget because too many have died or suffering long term lung damage which is only beginning to be understood.
I guess we just agree to disagree on this.
I've posted numerous times or should I on behalf of Mrsduncanb that unfortunately this virus Harvested the old and vulnerable both of us aren't going to disagree on this.
2015 saw 40,000 flu related deaths to exact same category as covid19 I UK alone.
I fully respect your choice to be indoors to protect the vulnerable , however I believe we really need to get back up and going and yes live with this virus.
On a salutary note sometimes we have to except that death is part of life, no life is risk free, each individual makes there own choices wether it effects others or not.
In end the masses will decide not elected bodies.
I fully respect your stance once again however can't except it personally.
NB. old fart ex heart attack so in theory I should be more worried than most but then grew up seeing people who were inflicted by Polio now that is scary.
Such a **** comparison

40k in a year vs 43k deaths....in three months...WHILE ON LOCKDOWN
Just pointing out that certain viruses Harvest vulnerable groups have done and will do ad fin itum .
You mat find it hard to except but its been on for ions bury your head in sand or except that the reason they are called vulnerable is because that's what they are.
I've lost both parents to Harvesting as I know now so in no way a flippant comment.
 

TRF_Olyy

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You don't seem to be able to grasp that we've exceeded the flu quota in 25% of the time and during the most widespread lockdown since...the blitz?

This isn't normal times we're living in and this virus won't just go away because you want it to.
 

The_Blindside

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Comparing impromptu out door gatherings to organized events is apple's and pears.
Why because Glasto etc shared toilets etc, singing shouting + logistics of cancellation has to be made months in advance.
WHO our own Virologist from Cambridge uni have also said as all viruses the chance of contacting are minimal outside as natural ventilation disperses it quickly.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...phere-was-ugly-bournemouth-aghast-beach-chaos

yeh nothing like doing a **** and a **** on the beach. No need for months of planning needed.

I guess we just agree to disagree on this.
I've posted numerous times or should I on behalf of Mrsduncanb that unfortunately this virus Harvested the old and vulnerable both of us aren't going to disagree on this.
2015 saw 40,000 flu related deaths to exact same category as covid19 I UK alone.
I fully respect your choice to be indoors to protect the vulnerable , however I believe we really need to get back up and going and yes live with this virus.
On a salutary note sometimes we have to except that death is part of life, no life is risk free, each individual makes there own choices wether it effects others or not.
In end the masses will decide not elected bodies.
I fully respect your stance once again however can't except it personally.
NB. old fart ex heart attack so in theory I should be more worried than most but then grew up seeing people who were inflicted by Polio now that is scary.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53200834

Surge in cases in 16 USA states . Not hard to imagine this happening here again.
 

Which Tyler

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https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/23/fauci-nih-white-house-bat-study-336452
The White House directed the National Institutes of Health to cancel funding for a project studying how coronaviruses spread from bats to people, the government's top infectious disease expert said Tuesday.

“Why was it canceled? It was canceled because the NIH was told to cancel it," said Anthony Fauci, director of the NIH's National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, in response to a question during a House Energy & Commerce Hearing. "I don’t know the reason, but we were told to cancel it.”

ARTICLE CONTINUES
 

duncanb

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https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...phere-was-ugly-bournemouth-aghast-beach-chaos

yeh nothing like doing a **** and a **** on the beach. No need for months of planning needed.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53200834

Surge in cases in 16 USA states . Not hard to imagine this happening here again.
Its pointless having a reasonable debate as you have one mindset only.
Yet again I respect your view but why post about America when we are discussing the UK.
I once again agree to disagree and feel your compassions are apple's and pears.
Let's just walk away with different views.
I don't believe yours .
You don't believe mine end of.
 

duncanb

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You don't seem to be able to grasp that we've exceeded the flu quota in 25% of the time and during the most widespread lockdown since...the blitz?

This isn't normal times we're living in and this virus won't just go away because you want it to.
I don't think it will go away but as someone old enough to remember and live through things like Polio and flu in 60s 70s when figures weren't collected in any meaningful way.
Of course I respect all others opinions but if I choose to disagree why not
I'm in a vulnerable group as old, had a heart attack a male but frankly I'm far more worried about my 30 yr old children and my 3 grandchildren who will suffer the consequences of this financially for a decades to come.
I feel you wont agree , but maybe you should think not of the old but the future and what damage is being done to younger generations .
NB yes it will come back in winter cause it's a virus.
 

The_Blindside

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Its pointless having a reasonable debate as you have one mindset only.
Yet again I respect your view but why post about America when we are discussing the UK.
I once again agree to disagree and feel your compassions are apple's and pears.
Let's just walk away with different views.
I don't believe yours .
You don't believe mine end of.
A reasonable Debate about a pandemic? Sorry didn’t realise viruses and once a 100 year pandemics could be reasonably debated about what will happen. Neither of us are epidemiologists. My one mindset is a second wave/ spikes could happen if people’s behavior returns to the mindset that this pandemic is over? Not really that unreasonable.

And USA is just an example of a country reopening too soon and the consequences and cases increasing. It’s not pointless to show it could happen here.
 

Which Tyler

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Leading causes of death; 5-year average (2014-2018) for England & Wales (all genders, all ages):
62,633 - Dementia and Alzheimer disease (F01,F03,G30)
58,360 - Ischaemic heart diseases (I20-I25)
32,858 - Cerebrovascular diseases (I60-I69)
31,310 - Chronic lower respiratory diseases (J40-J47)
30,294 - Malignant neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung (C33-C34)
27,955 - Influenza and pneumonia (J09-J18)
1 Quarter of 2020 (March 14th to June 12th)
48,213 - COVID-19 (U07.1 and U07.2)
11,111 - Other Excess Deaths compared to 5-year average



Sources:
Leading Deaths: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/datasets/leadingcausesofdeathuk (have to select all genders and all ages)
COVID-19: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending12june2020#deaths-registered-in-the-uk (data downloaded from point 3)
 
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The_Blindside

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Yep , Leicester has a 21% Asian community and BAMEs are more susceptible to catching it and dying from and we still don’t understand why this group are. But hey, each to their own right and let’s just live with the virus and return to behaviour pre lock down and to hell with the vulnerable whether they’re old, have pre-existing conditions or are BAME. As life is about risk and you can’t tell people how to live their lives, especially the young who have the right to party, go to the beach as they won’t die from it only increase the risk of spreading it to those who are :rolleyes:.
 

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Well the drive in to Leicester was actually busier than normal this morning.
 

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https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1277960114251526144



Startling stuff in this FT piece regarding the lack of data distilled down to a local level (text copied from elsewhere as it's behind a paywall)
https://www.ft.com/content/301c847c-a317-4950-a75b-8e66933d423a
The ability of local leaders to manage new coronavirus outbreaks in the UK is being hampered by gaps in the reporting of infection data for cities and regions, according to analysis by the Financial Times.

The government publishes a UK-wide figure for Covid-19 cases every day that includes tests from hospitals and those processed by commercial laboratories, including samples taken at home. But at a subnational level the total of new daily cases contains only hospital tests. The result is that hundreds of local authorities across the country are unable to see a timely picture of what is happening in their communities or compare that with other cities and regions of the UK.

This gap in the subnational and regional data has been cited by local political leaders and health officials in Leicester as one reason for a delay in locking down the east Midlands city, where virus cases have spiked. “For weeks we have been trying to get information about the level of testing in the city and the results of that testing in the city,” Peter Soulsby, mayor of Leicester, told the BBC on Tuesday. According to published data for Leicester, the city recorded just 80 new positive tests between June 13-26. But health secretary Matt Hancock revealed that there were in fact 944 as he announced the decision to tighten the lockdown in Leicester, closing non-essential shops and ordering schools to shut to all non-key worker pupils by Thursday.

Public Health England publishes a weekly breakdown of the two categories: tests from hospitals, known as pillar 1, and from commercial labs that process at-home and drive-through tests, known as pillar 2. While PHE releases full data for England’s nine main regions with a two-week delay, the areas are too big to give local authorities a useful picture of the situation in their communities.

Leicester city council’s public health department only received the elevated infection numbers cited by Mr Hancock last Thursday. They could not compare with places elsewhere because the so-called pillar 2 figures are only made available to officials in their own local authority area if they have signed the Data Protection Act. “I would wish that they had shared that [data] with us right from the start,” said Sir Peter, Leicester’s mayor. “And I wish they had taken a more speedy decision rather than leaving it 11 days. That's a long gap and a long time for the virus to spread.”
This is a thoroughly ridiculous way to manage a public health crisis and it boggles my mind at the lack of shared data and shared decision making going on here.
 
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Tallshort

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More areas looking at local lockdowns. Looks like the BML protests have put us back a month.
 

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More areas looking at local lockdowns. Looks like the BML protests have put us back a month.
Why are you blaming solely BLM? Surely the scenes at beeches (some before the BLM protests) and other mass gatherings also had a huge impact.

Honestly whats putting us back is opening up too quickly relative to our actual position the number weren't as low as other countries and out government have pursued opening up the country quicker than the alert levels allows.
 

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Why are you blaming solely BLM? Surely the scenes at beeches (some before the BLM protests) and other mass gatherings also had a huge impact.

Honestly whats putting us back is opening up too quickly relative to our actual position the number weren't as low as other countries and out government have pursued opening up the country quicker than the alert levels allows.
Mainly yes. There was a big BLM in Leicester over 2 weeks ago and this along with opening of religious buildings and also the lack of responsibility from some employers has caused this spike.
 

The Alpha Bro

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Why are you blaming solely BLM? Surely the scenes at beeches (some before the BLM protests) and other mass gatherings also had a huge impact.

Honestly whats putting us back is opening up too quickly relative to our actual position the number weren't as low as other countries and out government have pursued opening up the country quicker than the alert levels allows.
I follow a few techno pages on social media and the amount of illegal raves and house parties going on over there is mad, (there's a few here too) no chance you come out of a rave without COVID if someone brought it in. I think there's so many things contributing.
 
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