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[COVID-19] General Discussion

Our health minister (useless pile of shite but sure look) has said that recent cases have notably fewer close contacts as a result of social distancing. Not much, but something.
Social distancing doesn't mean people don't get the disease its about slowing spread rather than stopping, you only know if that work by knowing viral models on spread of this kinds of disease (its tad more complex than just looking at rate of cases, although that is a number us as joe public would like to see). there were a couple of good graphs using some basic bouncing balls models that show why extreme isolation isn't helpful as in all likely hood you'll have exactly the same problem when you lift restrictions.

All governements actually need an exit strategy and extreme lockdown such as China only really has until there is 'vaccine'
 
Our health minister (useless pile of shite but sure look) has said that recent cases have notably fewer close contacts as a result of social distancing. Not much, but something.

That's where you'll see the lockdown etc start to have effect.

Fewer 2nd stage cases, which leads to even fewer 3rd stage cases and very reduced 4th stage cases, rinse and repeat.

That'll flatten the curve.

In a country that has perfectly isolation/lockdown/social distancing, that'd also mean the virus peters out within a few more generations - i.e. spreads through each household its already in and goes no further.

Realistically, it'll give ICUs a chance to breathe. If the breakout points from each household can be kept very low, again then, the virus will wither out.



So, in summary - the rate of change of cases won't slow much *quite yet*. But in 2 weeks the Republic should see the beginnings of a sizeable drop-off.
 
I think Trump, Johnson and a lot on the right have a lot to answer for. For years they have been hammering away saying the media and establishment cannot be trusted, it's all "project fear", all "fake news", they have been priming people to ignore anything that does not fit their pre-conceived views. Now we have a crisis and everyone does anything EXCEPT what the actual advice is. People need to be held to account for the war that was waged against official sources. I heard people dismissing this as media hype to just get at Johnson / Trump too many times. Even as the crisis started to hit in the USA, Trump was trying to politicise it saying the fall in the markets was down to fear of Democrats, the numbers were lies, it's all fake news and will go away.

The whole ******* thing has been politicised
 
All governements actually need an exit strategy and extreme lockdown such as China only really has until there is 'vaccine'

If mortality is low, I'd expect they'll "throttle" the lockdown/distancing/shutdown to try and run critical cases to the NHS threshold.

If mortality is higher than expected, then that might change.


But with science Cummings running the show, who the f**k knows?
 
I think Trump, Johnson and a lot on the right have a lot to answer for. For years they have been hammering away saying the media and establishment cannot be trusted, it's all "project fear", all "fake news", they have been priming people to ignore anything that does not fit their pre-conceived views. Now we have a crisis and everyone does anything EXCEPT what the actual advice is. People need to be held to account for the war that was waged against official sources. I heard people dismissing this as media hype to just get at Johnson / Trump too many times. Even as the crisis started to hit in the USA, Trump was trying to politicise it saying the fall in the markets was down to fear of Democrats, the numbers were lies, it's all fake news and will go away.

The whole ******* thing has been politicised
Whilst there are obviously things to be accounted for. It is telling to me Sturgeon/Corbyn (and other leaders) are backing the government currently. There are checks and boundaries where they are pushing and they want more open information to the public but they aren't using this to jump on the government and vice versa. Out political class on the face of it aren't playing politics when we get to the end of it and it starts coming out in the wash they will but for this present time they are seemingly working together.

Trump and the USA is completely different story but at least out healthcare system isn't as one of my American friends was calling it 'nightmare dystopia'. I genuinely worry a lot of whats going to happen there because of this as they appear to have zero plan what so ever.
 
Breaking news Boris Johnson will be addressing the nation at 20:30, ITV to suspend programming. Suggest people might want to pay attention.

Seen on Kunnesberg and Preston's twitter feeds.
 
My friend is working as a doctor at a hospital in the Northern Cape. He believes a sharp spike might be the best way to deal with the virus. The hospitals are filled to capacity in most cases anyhow, and yes a spike might lead to more loss of life because people can't find the beds they need or the ventilators to support them. He believes that the yearly bunch who need hospitalization for the flu will get the Coronavirus and they will probably struggle (to put it lightly).

So why does he think that the government just allowing it to spike might be a feasible option? Especially considering the fact that much more people will die as opposed to trying to flatten the curve?
It's weighing the economic impact and the related famine and food shortages of a prolonged economic shutdown that South Africa won't be able to deal with vs the extra deaths of a spike.

Medical professionals don't want to get into a situation where they choose what sick person gets a bed and who does not (Who will die), so you can try and flatten the curve and let it go over a few months. This equals fewer deaths in the short term from the virus and allows the countries medical system to better deal with it.

To flatten the curve with such a contagious virus, an economic shutdown of all businesses is needed now, self-isolation mandatory. For everyone.
Our economy is already between a rock and a hard place, the debt of our state-owned electricity producer is already causing the interest of their debt to be more than their entire income.
The famine and deaths that will be caused by an economic meltdown in South Africa will far outweigh the deaths of a spike in cases. Businesses here can't afford to not work, workers can't afford not to work, they live on a day to day basis to feed their families.

Most Europeans can afford to panic buy, most Africans cant. They need to make enough money to buy basic food supplies such as Maize meal. Our economy might be irreparable for close to two years dealing with the aftereffects and we might be looking at millions dead from the economic after-effects. The unemployment number could jump from the current 24% (46+- youth unemployment) to levels never seen before.

If they let it spike now then the long term economic death toll could be mitigated, with the short term cost of life, unfortunately, this is the situation. People WILL die, the question is how do we minimize it long term?

Im not steadfast in my opinion, if someone brings forward a valid argument of why a spike would be much more catastrophic than the economic aftereffects than I am willing to listen. I would appreciate input from different schools of thought.
Just keep in mind that im referring to an African perspective of dealing with the virus. In Europe, I think flattening the curve is good because the people and government are better equipped to deal with the economic aftereffects. In Africa people will be let go from their work the public hospitals here are anyways filled to the brim and has bad service even without the Corona virus, if they dont let it spike then over the long terms poor citizens will anyway get the virus and most probably we still wont be able to deal with the populace at public hospitals but in addtion food shortages and inability to support their families might cause much worse effects. Lets not even mention the potential for riots in the case of an economic meltdown.

Not trying to fearmonger, just trying to brainstorm whether Africa does infact need a Africa centric sollution instead of just copying and pasting what the Europeans and Asians have been doing.

"Like" is completely the wrong sentiment but you've obviously put some thought into that post. As I've stated before (up-thread) I'm not an epidemiologist but I have been following this closely since it emerged in China. In my opinion the west have been slow to recognise the threat and slower still do do anything about it.

"Flattening the curve" is only a really viable strategy if you can scale a health service to deal with it and are willing to employ draconian measures to control the populace (and that the idiots listen). Additionally you have to be able to roll-out significant economic and social support to avoid dangerous social upheaval. Demographics also plays a massive part as does the overall health of the population. South Africa also has a relatively young society compared to the U.K for example. This is a disease that by and large is killing older weaker citizens. There also seems to be a correlation with things like obesity / diabetes etc. The U.S. and U.K. will pay a heavy toll on that front.

I'd say it's a far more balanced position in South Africa than most of Europe. Politically the likes of Boris couldn't back a policy that ended up with lorries full of dead elderly being buried en masse. Even if it were likely to lead to a better overall result.

As it happens the U.K's initial approach was to let this run its course (whilst protecting the most vulnerable) and emerge on the other side with herd immunity. This was only scuppered when the real world experience didn't tally with the models being used. Those being that Italy's experiencing a 5% + case fatality rate. If that experience were mirrored in the U.K rather than 510,000 deaths predicted by Imperial College (modeled at 0.9% IFR) you'd be looking somewhere north of 2 million. I doubt our political class would survive that politically or potentially physically. The U.K. cannot for example use the same capabilities as Singapore as our social model is significantly different and judging by our behaviour over the weekend people aren't capable of complying with "advice".

The "let it burn approach" will lead to lots of dead people (but so will unworkable alternatives). The actual risk of fatality for an individual only really being apparent after the event or post mortem. However, if the alternatives cannot be managed i.e. healthcare won't cope anyway and social and economic support can't be given then it may be the only viable option. Best strategy in that case is probably isolation for a long period for the frail (where possible) and securing vital infrastructure whilst the epidemic runs its course. Additionally you'll need some efficient services to deal with the bodies of those who succumb to avoid secondary health issues. You'd also need a strong government that was willing to stay the course. Once you embark down this road, there's no turning off it. Finally some difficult decisions about alleviating suffering will need to be made. I'd dearly love to live in a society where this is possible but the U.K. is very cautious about delegating life and death decisions (understandably so to a degree). But if you're dealing with mass casualties with no way of caring for them adequately then mercy seems like a good option to me.

I suspect there are no really good options unless someone pulls a rabbit out of their hat. To date despite some bluster the U.S. seem to be in serious trouble as do some advanced European nations.

Good luck. Everyone is going to need it I fear.
 
Breaking news Boris Johnson will be addressing the nation at 20:30, ITV to suspend programming. Suggest people might want to pay attention.

Seen on Kunnesberg and Preston's twitter feeds.

so total lockdown is coming.
 
Close enough. No gatherings of more than 2 peeps unless in the same household.
Aye I'm hoping for more that way as it will allow me outside a Chinese style approach doesn't grant that.

Workwise it could be very complicated.
 
Nope only shutting down places of work open to the public. Wording is 'travel to work, only if absolutely necessary and you can't work from home'.
A bit wishy-washy but surely to be clarified later? Like @Which Tyler say I imagine "absolutely necessary" will he defined as an approved list of jobs.

On a lighter note, I spoke to a Rec2Rec today (that's a recruiter who recruits recruiters), apparently she had more than one recently redundant recruitment consultant today ask in all seriousness if they counted as a "key worker". Some people's level of self-absorption is staggering.

A good move, exactly what I've been hoping for, but my worry is there's too much wiggle room. How can anyone disprove you aren't out for a walk as your one bit of daily exercise?
 
On a lighter note, I spoke to a Rec2Rec today (that's a recruiter who recruits recruiters), apparently she had more than one recently redundant recruitment consultant today ask in all seriousness if they counted as a "key worker". Some people's level of self-absorption is staggering.

Lol, that is hilarious. :confused::D

The limit of going out for one exercise a day - how the hell are they going to enforce that?
 
Who exercises more than once a day? I suppose walkers.

Yeh, I'm a walker i do about 3-5km a day if I can on a good day. What are we gonna have police monitor how many times you've gone out to exercise or they'll demand to see the health app on your phone to see how many forms of exercise you've done and then issue an on the spot fine if you've been out twice? :rolleyes::confused:

I get that this is serious and has been, but this one form of exercise allowed is unenforceable in practical terms. Well until Martial law/Curfew is imposed and you have the army and police patrolling the streets and peeps only allowed out at certain hours.
 
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