This is my opinion about the last 6 men to be selected.
First: looking at the initial squad of 25.
There is only one SH, and only one hooker, and I think we hardly are gonna see 3 SH and 3 HK in the final squad, like in the most 30-man squad; the Wallabies will be without TPN, there is no need of a third hooker whose only role would be warming the bench, they don't have enough time to try 3.
The same is for SH position, with the exception that if Toulouse will lose the semi-final, Burgess will be in Australia in 2 wks from now and he will be put straight into the match 23. If not, probably Phipps will be selected, due to his experience, in favour of Nic White.
I'm on Phipps side, many critics on him have been said in these years, but he has improved his game, and his background in 7s rugby is a good weapon in attack (ask England), his kicking game is worse than White's one, passing is quite the same, but you can't go into a Lions serie with a debutant 9.
Deans has only one backline in his head and is:
O'Connor
Ioane
12
Ashley-Cooper
Cummins
Barnes
The dilemma is in the 12 spot, with McCabe injured for a couple of weeks, Lealiifano inexperienced and Tapuai on poor form in recent game. I don't think he would put Rob Horne straight in the starting XV, though his good form and good partnership with AAC.
I think the only uncapped player can be here, Lealiifano of course, but IMO if Tapuai will regain some form, he should be called up in the final squad, Deans likes him, he's solid in defence and attack, and he has some playmaking skills.
In the front row he has chosen 1 LH specialist, and 3 props who can scrummage at both side, not great scrummagers, but with a high workrate (Slipper and Alexander): I think he will select a specialist TH, one between Palmer and Ryan, with the former a better scrummager, and the latter in a better form. Next SR rounds will tell us who will be the 5th prop.
Probably there're spots for another back, Beale if he can stay sober or Cooper if he can show a better attitute in contact.
And the final 2 spots are for lock/backrower. Douglas has done a great job with Wallaby jersey and in Super Rugby too, but he's gone through some big troubles recently (death of his mother and a concussion in the early minutes of Waratahs - Brumbies), if declared fit to play, he will be surely selcted.
The very last one is for Hugh McMeniman if he can do the same performances he produced early this year before the injury. He's the 4/6 Deans has desired in these years with Dennis, but more physical and faster than him.
Again if he could show his past form, he is much better than Dennis, he must be tried in the training camp.
So the final 6 IMO will be:
- Luke Burgess or Nick Phipps
- Paddy Ryan or Dan Palmer
- Ben Tapuai or Pat McCabe (respect for PMC, but I pray for Taps)
- Kane Douglas
- Hugh McMeniman if fit enough, else probably a winger (Mitchell)
- Kurtley Beale or Quade Cooper
