Premiership 24/25 - Round 16

[Flankers' paradise]

Unfortunately that is the difference in this league. if we had the money for 14 internationals we'd probably be fighting higher up the table, as it is we could only field 3 and the quality showed. That said mind you i thought we were worth the TBP and some of the rugby at times is high quality so credit to our staff for getting a lot out of not very much

 

[Ddanno]

High tackle on Wade is such a misnomer

 

[Reiser99]

Interesting results, think the playoffs will go to the wire, and then there is the question of fatigue will then decide the playoff matches.

I feel like Leicester are now guaranteed. Bristol and Sale have each other next and Leicester have Bath who have the Challenge Cup final the following week. Bath only need a point (Or are they basically guaranteed through pts difference?) to secure top spot and they can probably get that against Sarries on the final weekend in preparation for the playoffs. Leicester also have Falcons last and realistically if they are second and want to win the ***le they should win that with 5pts. That would put them on 61 then the lowest they could finish is 3rd.

That leaves:
3. Bristol (52pts) - Sale (A) & Quins (H)
4. Sale (49pts) - Bristol (H) & Exeter (A)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5. Saracens (49pts) - Saints (A) & Bath (H)
6. Gloucester (46pts) - Newcastle (A) & Saints (H)
7. Quins (43pts) - Exeter (H) & Bristol (A)
8. Saints (38pts) - Exeter (A), Saracens (H) & Gloucester (A)

3 & 4: Bristol v Sale is a huge game next week. If Bristol win they will pretty much have qualified, definitely with a BP win (I think if Bristol don't get the BP against, Sale get 2LBP and Sarries win, then if Bristol lost with no BP on the final weekend and Sale won with a BP and Sarries won again then Sarries would finish on at least 57 pts, Sale on 56pts and Bristol on 56pts and then it would come down to pts difference which Sale are currently leading.) Honestly not sure who will win after the performances this weekend because Sale couldn't hold their lead and Bristol struggled to get into the game against a very weak Bath side. I'm going to stick my neck out and say Sale to win their last two games and qualify. I then think Bristol will beat Quins and finish on 58pts.

5: I think Sarries will beat Saints who will be focused on the Champions Cup final and then lose to Bath.
6: Gloucester will beast Falcons and then lose to Saints.
7. Quins will beat Exeter and lose to Bristol and drop below Saints on pts difference
8. Saints will beat Exeter and Gloucester with a BP, but lose to Sarries as they prepare for the Champions cup. (Technically, if Saints get 15 points from the last 3 games and everyone else pretty much loses the rest of their games with no BPs then Saints could still do it. They would need Bristol to either lose to Sale and Quins or if Bristol beat Sale and Sale loses the other game, Quins could beat Bristol and Saints still qualify)

My predicted table:
1. Bath - 71pts
2. Leicester - 65pts
3. Sale - 59pts
4. Bristol - 58pts
5. Sarries - 54pts
6. Gloucester - 51pts
7. Saints - 48pts
8. Quins - 48pts
9. Exeter - 21pts
10. Newcastle - 14 pts

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

I see Sarries getting 2 TBP wins tbh
Bristol I can see getting 7 points (2 BP v Sale and a TBP win v Quins at home)

 

[Which Tyler]

Have have been uncatchable at the top since Friday of last week

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Our play style matches up well against Bristol so I'd usually be confident but Warr went off injured and Raffi is playing terribly so that definitely knocks us a lot
TC I'd rest regardless of whether he's technically fit, BC with Dugdale on the bench is fine
LCD being injured would be a big concern, McElroy is solid but we've noone, realistically, Prem level behind that atm

 

[The Seeker]

Harlequins 38 Gloucester 19. I had the Cherry & Whites winning a close one. Oops!

 

[BPM]

I feel like Leicester are now guaranteed. Bristol and Sale have each other next and Leicester have Bath who have the Challenge Cup final the following week. Bath only need a point (Or are they basically guaranteed through pts difference?) to secure top spot and they can probably get that against Sarries on the final weekend in preparation for the playoffs. Leicester also have Falcons last and realistically if they are second and want to win the ***le they should win that with 5pts. That would put them on 61 then the lowest they could finish is 3rd.

That leaves:
3. Bristol (52pts) - Sale (A) & Quins (H)
4. Sale (49pts) - Bristol (H) & Exeter (A)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5. Saracens (49pts) - Saints (A) & Bath (H)
6. Gloucester (46pts) - Newcastle (A) & Saints (H)
7. Quins (43pts) - Exeter (H) & Bristol (A)
8. Saints (38pts) - Exeter (A), Saracens (H) & Gloucester (A)

3 & 4: Bristol v Sale is a huge game next week. If Bristol win they will pretty much have qualified, definitely with a BP win (I think if Bristol don't get the BP against, Sale get 2LBP and Sarries win, then if Bristol lost with no BP on the final weekend and Sale won with a BP and Sarries won again then Sarries would finish on at least 57 pts, Sale on 56pts and Bristol on 56pts and then it would come down to pts difference which Sale are currently leading.) Honestly not sure who will win after the performances this weekend because Sale couldn't hold their lead and Bristol struggled to get into the game against a very weak Bath side. I'm going to stick my neck out and say Sale to win their last two games and qualify. I then think Bristol will beat Quins and finish on 58pts.

5: I think Sarries will beat Saints who will be focused on the Champions Cup final and then lose to Bath.
6: Gloucester will beast Falcons and then lose to Saints.
7. Quins will beat Exeter and lose to Bristol and drop below Saints on pts difference
8. Saints will beat Exeter and Gloucester with a BP, but lose to Sarries as they prepare for the Champions cup. (Technically, if Saints get 15 points from the last 3 games and everyone else pretty much loses the rest of their games with no BPs then Saints could still do it. They would need Bristol to either lose to Sale and Quins or if Bristol beat Sale and Sale loses the other game, Quins could beat Bristol and Saints still qualify)

My predicted table:
1. Bath - 71pts
2. Leicester - 65pts
3. Sale - 59pts
4. Bristol - 58pts
5. Sarries - 54pts
6. Gloucester - 51pts
7. Saints - 48pts
8. Quins - 48pts
9. Exeter - 21pts
10. Newcastle - 14 pts

A lot depends on how much Saints care about their league position. There will be a fine balance between wanting to protect their frontline players for the final whilst also making sure that are match fit/sharp.

Exeter are currently so bad that Saints will still win playing their 2nd XV, but I could easily see them losing to Saracens and Gloucester.

We've already seen them take a very relaxed approach to the league this weekend so if really depends on how strong they choose to go in the remaining games.

Unless … Baxter being more hands on gets a reaction today?

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Yeah, it's an interesting game today considering it's a dead rubber
New(old) coach bounce vs Very rotated team without a flyhalf*


*though James did well playing there vs Sale tbf, it was only really kicking (especially penalties to touch) that is was an issue

 

[BPM]

Well if you're Baxter, it's an easy team talk. "Saints think they can rock up with a second string side and no fly half and beat us … we can't let them disrespect us like that."

It won't have a bearing on the top 4 but I could definitely see Exeter turning them over.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Saints making a decent fist of it, probably deserved to be level at half time rather than two tries down

Be interesting to see if conditioning comes into it later on - a lot of players with minimal senior/pro level experience
Saints probably should've had a few more seniors on the bench, I know it doesn't mean anything in the grand course of the season but this is winnable

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Similar game to Bristol Bath tbh,
Don't think Saints will be overly upset with that result, a lot of players put in good performances

 

[Scotty]

Well if you're Baxter, it's an easy team talk. "Saints think they can rock up with a second string side and no fly half and beat us … we can't let them disrespect us like that."

It won't have a bearing on the top 4 but I could definitely see Exeter turning them over.

Exeter 42 - 14 Saints, I'll take that. Must have been a good team talk.

I'm glad we didn't just edge it and actually showed up. Nothing is going to turn around overnight but least it's a positive going into the last couple of rounds.

 

[Ddanno]

Well if you're Baxter, it's an easy team talk. "Saints think they can rock up with a second string side and no fly half and beat us … we can't let them disrespect us like that."

It won't have a bearing on the top 4 but I could definitely see Exeter turning them over.

Never 'appy is he

"Our big problem is the crowd are quite happy we've got a five-point win today, I was fuming, absolutely fuming, it shows how much we have to cut out, of what's wrong in what we're doing and improve some very, very poor basics."

 

[West Country Wail]

Never 'appy is he

"Our big problem is the crowd are quite happy we've got a five-point win today, I was fuming, absolutely fuming, it shows how much we have to cut out, of what's wrong in what we're doing and improve some very, very poor basics."

He's completely right

 

[Ddanno]

He's completely right

My point remains valid

 

[Scotty]

Never 'appy is he

"Our big problem is the crowd are quite happy we've got a five-point win today, I was fuming, absolutely fuming, it shows how much we have to cut out, of what's wrong in what we're doing and improve some very, very poor basics."

This is a real test for Baxter because he is credited fully(and rightly) for leading Chiefs from the Championship to winning the prem to winning the champions cup, he's taken a step back things have gone from bad to worse.

He is now starting again as the main man in the position with a young team at the bottom end of the prem, can he replicate it now he's taking control again.

 

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

I mean they beat a really young saints C team with a load of debutants, Baxter quite rightly should not be happy with that performance. 5 points doesn't really tell the true picture for Exeter.

 

[Ddanno]

What does he expect after 1 week as coach, and what the hell has he been doing as DoR? It's really **** to bash them publicly (and quite viciously) given the circumstances.

 

[Flankers' paradise]

It really feels like it's an 'anyone but me' approach from baxter on what's going wrong when he probably needs to take some accountability for the only constant being himself