Discussion in 'Rugby World Cup 2019' started by Dropkick1, May 10, 2017.
Department of Water & Environment Regulation?
oh no Faletau is out. d4m, Wales chances have just plummeted
Yeah it’s massively disappointing... I think the whole of Wales needs to start chipping in to send Taulupe to Germany for stem-cell treatment.
definitely. i thought that would be one of the first things the Wales RFU would do.
why send him all the way to Germany? surely there must be this kind of treatment closer.
owenFranks got his stemcell treatment in NZ
From my limited knowledge on the subject, their the best of the best... better than all the rest etc.
Gutted! We've managed well without him, but the guy's world class.
He's gone from one of the most durable players out there to one of the most injury prone, hopefully this will be the end of his bad luck!
Plummeted is a bit much.
A fit Faletau would improve pretty much any team and I’d agree that losing a player of his class could be the difference between doing well and going all the way.
However, let’s not forget that Wales have just won a Grand Slam without him and injuries have meant that he’s not really been a part of their winning run.
It looks like Ellis Jenkins will be out too, but Gatland still has a very good stock of back row players to choose from and Shingler being fit could be a big boost. I’d imagine that it’s probably Tipuric, Navidi, Moriarty, Shingler and Wainwright on the plane now.
RWC pool games, ranked from least predictable to most predictable:
Pool B Game 10 Namibia vs Canada - Chance for Namibia win 46%, draw 3.0%, Canada win 51%
Pool A Game 10 Japan vs Scotland - 45%, 3.0%, 52%
Pool C Game 10 USA vs Tonga - 53%, 3.0%, 44%
Pool D Game 6 Georgia vs Fiji - 36%, 2.5%, 61%
Pool C Game 1 France vs Argentina - 62%, 2.5%, 35%
Pool A Game 3 Russia vs Samoa - 27%, 2.5%, 70%
Pool C Game 8 Argentina vs USA - 71%, 2.2%, 27%
Pool D Game 1 Australia vs Fiji - 74%, 2.0%, 24%
Pool B Game 1 New Zealand vs South Africa - 75%, 2.0%, 23%
Pool C Game 4 Argentina vs Tonga - 76%, 2.2%, 22%
Pool C Game 9 England vs France - 83%, 1.6%, 15%
Pool C Game 5 France vs USA - 83%, 1.4%, 15%
Pool D Game 9 Australia vs Georgia - 86%, 1.2%, 13%
Pool C Game 7 France vs Tonga - 88%, 1.2%, 11%
Pool D Game 5 Australia vs Wales - 11%, 1.0%, 88%
Pool A Game 2 Ireland vs Scotland - 90%, 1.0%, 9.0%
Pool A Game 4 Japan vs Ireland - 7.0%, 1.0%, 92.0%
Pool D Game 4 Georgia vs Uruguay 92.5%, 0.8%, 7.0%
Pool C Game 6 England vs Argentina - 93.0%, 0.8%, 6.5%
Pool A Game 7 Japan vs Samoa - 96.0%, 0.4%, 3.5%
Pool B Game 3 Italy vs Canada - 96.0%, 0.3%, 3.5%
Pool A Game 5 Scotland vs Samoa - 97.0%, 0.2%, 3.0%
Pool B Game 2 Italy vs Namibia - 97.0%, 0.3%, 2.5%
Pool D Game 3 Fiji vs Uruguay - 97.8%, 0.2%, 2.0%
Pool D Game 8 Wales vs Fiji - 99.2%, <0.1%, 0.8%
Pool B Game 6 South Africa vs Italy - 99.7%, <0.1%, 0.3%
Pool C Game 3 England vs USA - 99.7%, <0.1%, 0.2%
Pool A Game 1 Japan vs Russia - 99.9%, 0%, 0.1%
Pool A Game 8 Scotland vs Russia - 99.9%, <0.1%, <0.1%
Pool D Game 2 Wales vs Georgia - >99.9%, 0%, <0.1%
Pool C Game 2 England vs Tonga - >99.9%, 0%, <0.1%
Pool D Game 7 Australia vs Uruguay - >99.9%, -, -
Pool A Game 6 Ireland vs Russia - 100%, -, -
Pool A Game 9 Ireland vs Samoa - 100%, -, -
Pool B Game 4 South Africa vs Namibia - 100%, -, -
Pool B Game 5 New Zealand vs Canada - 100%, -, -
Pool B Game 7 New Zealand vs Namibia - 100%, -, -
Pool B Game 8 South Africa vs Canada - 100%, -, -
Pool B Game 9 New Zealand vs Italy - 100%, -, -
Pool D Game 10 Wales vs Uruguay - 100%, -, -
Is this your odds? And are you taking bets?
It's based on the WR Rankings as of tomorrow, and no... but which ones are you suggesting would be good value? Japan vs Samoa? or Australia vs Wales maybe?
yeah those ones. maybe russia to beat japan more than 1 in every 1000 matches. maybe even namibia to beat italy more than 5 in every 2000 games. not sure, probably a few toward the top seem too one-sided but it's hard to conceptualise those numbers.
Could USA achieve a shock win like Japan did against RSA in 2015?
As i said before, Argentina play usa 4 days after the england game, given a game between these 2 will be hugely physical what is their depth like to take on a USA team thats had a week to recover from the France game.
So yes they could. As could japan over Scotland. Argentina and scotland still favorites in them games but by no means safe.
Those numbers are depressing. All they say is that we might as well go straight to the Quarter Finals. Obviously interesting to see who finishes 1st and 2nd in the pools as that affects the knock out fixtures. But in terms of QF composition the only real point of interest is which of Eng, Fra or Arg will horse up worst. My money's on Arg.
I have Scottish blood, but it would be massive for the tournament if Japan could beat Scotland.
@Brigantine I'm interested by the Japan vs Scotland probabilities. Are they based on Japan being a home team? Obvioulsy they are, but I suspect that this is less of a factor than in regular test matches given the time that the opposition has had time to prepare. Outside of that, I'm struggling to understand why your model says it's so close, can you explain why please?
So you think that England and Argentina are favourites?
With France's form they have to be below England and Argentina.
The WR Rankings give the home team a 3 RP bonus. In RWC Finals the results have double weighting, but it's still +3 RP for home advantage.
To 'handicap' the home side, we treat them as though they are three points stronger than their current rating, which means that they will tend to pick up fewer points for winning, and give away more points for losing
My model blindly follows World Rugby on that point. Maybe that isn't the right level of home advantage to predict RWC games. Maybe it's wrong even for normal test matches. But 3 of the 8 RWCs to date have been won by host countries.
Japan have just had wins against Fiji and Tonga these last 2 weekends bringing them up to 76.62 RP (just a hair below Argentina). With the 3 RP for home advantage factored in, they are on 79.62 RP, in between Scotland and France. Every 0.2 RP difference makes for a 1pp change in win probability. Two evenly matched teams would each have a 48%/49% chance, so the 0.55 RP gap brings Scotland up about 3pp from there, and Japan down about 3pp from there.
WR Rankings are quite volatile too, If Japan lose big to USA this weekend, that Japan vs Scotland game will look more like 35%, 2.5%, 63%. (and Argentina vs USA might be 59%, 2.5%, 39%).
You expect surprising things to show up one game, and then subside a few games later.
For comparison, my first predictions back in May 2017 gave Scotland a 75% chance vs Japan.
Are these based on both teams putting out a full strenth squad? As many of these sides will put out a 2nd team for the tier 2 games. So these numbers would be out.
Separate names with a comma.