Rugby World Cup 2019 predictions

[FrenchFan]

RWC pool games, ranked from least predictable to most predictable:

Pool B Game 10 Namb

this is the problem with world rankings. It's reliable up to a point. No question NZ are No1. But the FFR 8th? I dont think so. It doesn't give an accurate picture for every nation. If the FFR happens to beat Italy they stay in Top 10. This comedy has been going on for years.

In last 6N Italy were cleary the better side and dominated (mostly upfront). Italy lost the game more than the blue charade won it. Came down to a miraculous try saving tackle by Penaud. On form and results les Bleus are much closer to 14th (Italy's ranking) than 8th. Their current ranking is completely skewed.

Argentina with the Jaguares SR finalist (and going down to an ABs side disguised as the Crusaders) shud qualify. They're coached by Quesada and Ledesma who have spent virtually their entire playing career in Top 14. They'll have the Brunel brigade on toast.

The last Eng-Fra was over at half-time. Eng and Arg should go thru.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

As i said before, Argentina play usa 4 days after the england game, given a game between these 2 will be hugely physical what is their depth like to take on a USA team thats had a week to recover from the France game.

So yes they could. As could japan over Scotland. Argentina and scotland still favorites in them games but by no means safe.

Get your bets on now! Actually USA may be favourites if Argentina put out a second string team, as their second stringers would be pretty raw in comparison. But they probably won't play a fully second string team, depending on whether they've qualified already at that stage. I don't know when These games take place? And why japan over Scotland?

 

[Brigantine]

Are these based on both teams putting out a full strenth squad? As many of these sides will put out a 2nd team for the tier 2 games. So these numbers would be out.

It's based on actual results when different level teams play test matches, so IMO best to think of it as based on the squads each team would usually use in a test match against that opponent.

Every time an underdog pulls out an upset win against a 2nd string side from tier 1, that result influences the rankings. In the counterfactual where teams always used their best available squad, I'm sure there would be a bigger rankings gap between tier 1 and the rest.

 

[Cavemeister]

Taking into account external factors such as the Japanese heat and humidity, future injuries as a result of the gruelling warm up matches (4 is 1 too many IMO) this RWC will probably have the most "Too Close To Call" matches - And that is a good thing. Honestly, these are my TCC matches from the groups.

GROUP A.
IRE v SCO
SCO v JAP
SCO v SAM

GROUP B.
NZ v SA

GROUP C.
ENG v FRA
ENG v ARG
FRA v ARG

GROUP D.
AUS v WAL
AUS v FIJ

Thats 9 top tier matches where you have to honestly say, you cannot be sure of the outcome.

But for now, I must watch Ireland play 4 warm ups. 2 v Wales, 1 v England and 1 v Italy. I will not be watching the score, I will be watching each player and praying they get to their feet after each hit.

 

[Brigantine]

Samoa? Really? They couldn't even beat the USA Eagles.

Mind you, nor could Scotland in June 2018, so maybe you have a point.

 

[Welshdragon2000]

Samoa? Really? They couldn't even beat the USA Eagles.

Mind you, nor could Scotland in June 2018, so maybe you have a point.

Samoa have been terrible lately but they can suddenly come out with a great performance from nowhere. Therefore they'll beat Scotland and lose to Russia

 

[Brigantine]

A quick update to show the impact of the Wallabies win on the model. (With England vs Wales still to play this weekend)
I expect most big moves like this are an over-correction and that over time things move half way back to where they were, but that doesn't mean the new numbers are any more wrong than the old numbers.

The upshot is, the tournament is wide open. It isn't New Zealand vs the field any more.

Potential World Champions:

Wales - 33% +6 Chance (runner-up 19% -6)
New Zealand - 25% -19 Chance (and for runner-up 21% -3)
Ireland - 16% +3 Chance (runner-up 13% -2)
South Africa - 11% +4.0 Chance (runner-up 17% +2)
England - 9.5% +1.5 Chance (runner-up 14% NC)
Australia - 4.5% +4.0 Chance (runner-up 11% +7)

Scotland - 0.2% +0.1 Chance (runner-up 1.6% +0.2)
Japan - 0.2% +0.2 Chance (runner-up 1.6% +1.0)
France - 0.2% +0.2 Chance (runner-up 1.2% +0.2)
Fiji - <0.1% +<0.1 Chance (runner-up 0.1% NC)

And a 0.1% NC Chance the runner-up will be Argentina

Another thing - Scotland and Japan both have a 51% chance of qualifying for a QF.
Pool A is a pool of death! Ireland, Scotland and Japan are all individually more likely than not to progress, but one of them has to fall short.
(Ireland's chance of progressing is 98.2%, Samoa 0.3%)

EDIT: Potential World Champions post Eng v Wal
Changes are vs last week

We now have the top 5 teams within 2.23 RP of each other and each with a >10% chance to win.

New Zealand - 26% -18 Chance (and for runner-up 19% -5)
Wales - 25% -2 Chance (runner-up 20% -5)
Ireland - 18% +5 Chance (runner-up 14% -1)
England - 14% +6.0 Chance (runner-up 16% +2)
South Africa - 12% +5.0 Chance (runner-up 17% +2)
Australia - 5.0% +4.0 Chance (runner-up 10% +6)

Scotland - 0.3% +0.2 Chance (runner-up 1.6% +0.2)
France - 0.2% +0.2 Chance (runner-up 1.2% +0.2)
Japan - 0.2% +0.2 Chance (runner-up 1.2% +0.6)
Fiji - <0.1% +<0.1 Chance (runner-up 0.1% NC)

And a 0.1% NC Chance the runner-up will be Argentina

Also note that unless England has a draw vs Wales next week or Ireland the week after, one of those 3 will *officially* top the rankings table. NZ's position at the top couldn't be much more tenuous than that.
(HT @The Alpha Bro )

 

[General Melchett]

Pool A is a pool of death! Ireland, Scotland and Japan are all individually more likely than not to progress, but one of them has to fall short.
(Ireland's chance of progressing is 98.2%, Samoa 0.3%)

And look who is waiting for both 1st and 2nd place in the QFs. Bit like crossing a croc infested river to find two hungry lions waiting on the other side.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Likely to play the sexiest rugby: Eng

Likely to play the dumbest rugby: Eng

Most likely to blow a winning lead: Eng

Eng will: QF worst, SF best

If there's a NH winner it will be: Wal

NZ's chances depend on: Retallick

Most likely to underperform: Ire

Winners: Boks

Dark horses: Aus

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Most likely to underperform: Ire

Think we're the least likely side to lose a group game to be honest.

 

[Rinkadink]

Think we're the least likely side to lose a group game to be honest.

Yeah, of course. If Ireland were to lose a pool game it would be shameful given the comparative standard of opposition.

 

[unrated]

Not OC but had to post on this thread

 

[bushytop]

Likely to play the sexiest rugby: Eng

Likely to play the dumbest rugby: Eng

Most likely to blow a winning lead: Eng

Eng will: QF worst, SF best

If there's a NH winner it will be: Wal

NZ's chances depend on: Retallick

Most likely to underperform: Ire

Winners: Boks

Dark horses: Aus

Way to spread the love!

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Yeah, of course. If Ireland were to lose a pool game it would be shameful given the comparative standard of opposition.

Yeah, I was a bit short there. I think it's highly unlikely that Ireland will noticeably underperform, as long as we top our group and don't get ****** in the QF I don't think anyone will bat an eye. It'd obviously be disappointing but we're up against one of the bookies two favourites so a QF exit wouldn't be underperforming on its own.

 

[bushytop]

... a QF exit wouldn't be underperforming on its own.

Just par for the course eh Alf?

 

[Rinkadink]

Yeah, I was a bit short there. I think it's highly unlikely that Ireland will noticeably underperform, as long as we top our group and don't get ****** in the QF I don't think anyone will bat an eye. It'd obviously be disappointing but we're up against one of the bookies two favourites so a QF exit wouldn't be underperforming on its own.

For sure, I was only talking about pools. QFs and onwards is pretty much anyone's guess.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Just par for the course eh Alf?

Same old, same old!

 

[Brigantine]

Likely to play the sexiest rugby: Eng

Likely to play the sexiest rugby: Fiji. Honourable mention Japan

Likely to play the dumbest rugby: New Zealand. How many red cards will they get?

Most likely to blow a winning lead: England

France will: 4th in Pool worst, finalists best

If there's a SH winner it will be: South Africa

NZ's chances depend on: Whether it's a yellow or a red

Most likely to underperform: New Zealand. Not because they'll play worse, but because the expectations on them are higher

Winners: Wales. I said it back in 2017, I see no reason to change my mind now

Dark horses: France. Because the cup is so wide open the top 6 are all light horses. All Quiet on the Western Front

 

[Leinster Fan]

I don't see how we can underperform, so long as we beat Scotland and don't absolutely stink the joint out for the rest of it. If we win the pool, get to a qf and then lose to whoever of NZ/SA comes from that it'll be disappointing but not a failure given the standard of opposition. Wont stop the media painting it like one, we're nearly as bad as the English.

 

[Leinster Fan]

I still don't get why people talk about dark horses in rugby, there aren't enough teams for that. If there is one though it'll be France, they have talented enough backs to pull off a surprise somewhere but they aren't nearly good enough to win anything.