Rugby World Cup 2019 predictions

Discussion in 'Rugby World Cup 2019' started by Dropkick1, May 10, 2017.

  1. FrenchFan

    FrenchFan First XV

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2013
    Messages:
    2,186
    Location:
    Ville rose
    Country Flag:

    France

    Club or Nation:

    Toulouse

  2. Forum Ad Advertisement

  3. bushytop

    bushytop First XV

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2011
    Messages:
    2,333
    Location:
    Here be dragons!
    Country Flag:

    Wales

    Club or Nation:

    London Welsh

  4. Brigantine

    Brigantine Bench Player

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    697
    Location:
    Auckland
    Country Flag:

    New Zealand

    Club or Nation:

    Japan

    Sounds like someone's salty about not being in the top 10!

    If he's got a problem with Argentina only playing against stronger opponents, he could maybe organize some more Pumas vs T2 action. Just a thought! No ranking system is going to favour a team that loses all the time.

    EDIT: There is some truth to the idea that the best/worst team within a silo will be over/under-rated by the rankings. That's because there aren't enough games between teams in different silos to bring the RP levels into a full equilibrium the same way (as the RP gaps between teams within the same silo). This is especially relevant outside of T1.

    Part of the answer to that is the 2x weighting on RWC finals tournaments, which could afford to be extended to more inter-silo tests. Another part is simply arranging more competitive-ish games between silos. The other is taking the ranking positions with a grain of salt and using the quantitative RP gap when you interpret them.

    (e.g. the current top 5 are essentially all on the same level, Australia is close/competitive, then the next group is way down. Argentina are closer to Scotland than to Italy. Japan/Fiji/Georgia are essentially on the same level. Italy will only beat France/Scotland in about 1 in 10 matches)

    It's a quantitative, probablistic model. Just because journalists don't understand it very well doesn't mean it's flawed!
     
    • Like Like x 1
    Last edited: Aug 30, 2019
  5. TRF_Olyy

    TRF_Olyy English Arrogance

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2008
    Messages:
    33,936
    Location:
    Lichfield(ish), UK
    Country Flag:

    England

    Club or Nation:

    Sale

    If Pichots against it it probably means it's a good thing
     
    • Like Like x 1
  6. The Alpha Bro

    The Alpha Bro Fat Boi

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2010
    Messages:
    11,382
    Location:
    Concussed or something...
    Country Flag:

    Ireland

    Club or Nation:

    Leinster

    Argentina clearly deserve to be number one because they'd have won 20 6 nations by now if we let them in after the 2007 world cup.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  7. Leinster Fan

    Leinster Fan First XV

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,633
    Location:
    Dublin
    Country Flag:

    Ireland

    Club or Nation:

    Leinster

    He thinks it's too "mathematical." Like wtf is the alternative?
     
    • Like Like x 2
  8. bushytop

    bushytop First XV

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2011
    Messages:
    2,333
    Location:
    Here be dragons!
    Country Flag:

    Wales

    Club or Nation:

    London Welsh

    Guesstimates?
     
  9. The_Blindside

    The_Blindside First XV

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2013
    Messages:
    4,248
    Country Flag:

    England

    Club or Nation:

    British Irish Lions

    It's a shame this wasn't the RWC final in 1999:



    Instead of this:

     
    • Like Like x 1
  10. The Oggmonster

    The Oggmonster Bench Player

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2017
    Messages:
    977
    Country Flag:

    Sweden

    Club or Nation:

    Glasgow

    Good old fashioned bribery and corruption.
     
  11. Brigantine

    Brigantine Bench Player

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    697
    Location:
    Auckland
    Country Flag:

    New Zealand

    Club or Nation:

    Japan

    Penultimate update using rankings instead of actual RWC Pool Game results.

    Only 6 teams exchanged RP this week. The top 5 teams still very close. (statistically, any of them might actually be best in the world right now - and just unlucky)
    1. 89.40 New Zealand
    2. 88.87 Ireland (+1.51)
    3. 88.13 England
    4. 87.92 Wales (-1.51)
    5. 86.82 South Africa
    6. 84.05 Australia
    7. 81.00 Scotland (+1.13)
    8. 79.72 France
    9. 77.43 Fiji (+0.45)
    10. 77.21 Japan
    11. 76.29 Argentina
    12. 73.29 Georgia (-1.13)
    13. 72.04 Italy
    14. 71.94 USA
    15. 71.04 Tonga (-0.45)
    16. 69.08 Samoa

    RWC Projections Box-Whisker-Weighted-Interpolation 2019-09-02_SD3.gif
    For comparison: 2019-08-26, 2019-08-19 (There's also a small change to the algorithms since last week)

    This one to show more visually how close the top teams are:
    RWC Projection Pie Chart 2019-09-02_SD3.png
     
    • Like Like x 2
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2019
  12. The_Blindside

    The_Blindside First XV

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2013
    Messages:
    4,248
    Country Flag:

    England

    Club or Nation:

    British Irish Lions

    • Like Like x 1
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2019
  13. Reiser99

    Reiser99 First XV

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2015
    Messages:
    1,536
    Country Flag:

    England

    Club or Nation:

    Leicester

    Don't get Irish hopes up like that. They might actually start believing they can get past the quarterfinal. Cruel *******!
     
  14. TRF_Olyy

    TRF_Olyy English Arrogance

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2008
    Messages:
    33,936
    Location:
    Lichfield(ish), UK
    Country Flag:

    England

    Club or Nation:

    Sale

    We average over 50 caps per player??
    Genuinely surprised at that!


    Edit: only 8 players with over 50 caps but some of them have 80 odd so it brings the number up I guess
     
  15. Old Hooker

    Old Hooker First XV

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Messages:
    2,633
    Country Flag:

    England

    At the point of squad announcement the combined caps were 1007 averaging out at 32 each.

    Cole, Launch, Marler and Lawes account for 275 of those and are likely to be bench at best. Ford and Jospeh possibly too and they’ve got nearly 100 between them.
     
  16. ragerancher

    ragerancher First XV

    Joined:
    Sep 20, 2011
    Messages:
    4,721
    Country Flag:

    England

    Club or Nation:

    Bath

    Funnily enough the only "solution" to the rankings would be to make it even more complicated mathematically. Kinda annoying hearing people in a position of authority and power whinging about how something isn't good enough but then not putting forward a viable alternative...
     
  17. The_Blindside

    The_Blindside First XV

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2013
    Messages:
    4,248
    Country Flag:

    England

    Club or Nation:

    British Irish Lions



    This is the 1014 video referred to in the stuff article. Corrected my earlier post to remove Scotland, as they don’t meet their criteria.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  18. The Oggmonster

    The Oggmonster Bench Player

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2017
    Messages:
    977
    Country Flag:

    Sweden

    Club or Nation:

    Glasgow

    Sounds like the NIrish backstop :)
     
  19. The_Blindside

    The_Blindside First XV

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2013
    Messages:
    4,248
    Country Flag:

    England

    Club or Nation:

    British Irish Lions

    And so we reach the most dramatic and for England fans most memorable Rugby World Cup final of the 8 so far:

     
  20. Umaga's Witness

    Umaga's Witness Bench Player

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2012
    Messages:
    775
    Country Flag:

    New Zealand

    Club or Nation:

    Hurricanes

    clearly they were woefully wrong for a few weeks there, but they look about right now
     
    • Like Like x 1
  21. The_Blindside

    The_Blindside First XV

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2013
    Messages:
    4,248
    Country Flag:

    England

    Club or Nation:

    British Irish Lions

Enjoyed this thread? Register to post your reply - click here!

Share This Page