Rugby World Cup 2019 predictions

Discussion in 'Rugby World Cup 2019' started by Dropkick1, May 10, 2017.

  1. The_Blindside

    The_Blindside International

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    Different conditions. In the heavier conditions of Northern Europe compared to playing France and Argentina in the harder grounds, humidity of Japan. Plus I expect France and Argentina to be better prepared and fresher in Japan when we meet.
     
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  3. Leinster Fan

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    England have the worst draw, not because of the competition, but playing France and Argentina last is very tough. That's five Tier 1 games they need to win in 5 weeks, in contrast in Pool A/B the top two seeds are playing each other first and then get to rotate and rest players the rest of the way through (especially NZ/SA).
     
  4. FrenchFan

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    Lower T1 sides though and England have 2 easy games to build momentum in pool while Fra (notorious slow starter) and Arg have to hit the ground running in 1st game. Quality of opposition and momentum are more telling factors IMO.
     
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    Last edited: Sep 13, 2019
  5. The Oggmonster

    The Oggmonster First XV

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    Very true. Scotland can send out their second string side to play Russia four days before they round things off against Japan in a potentially winner takes all game. They couldn't have asked for a better fixture sequence as they'll also be able to have a crack at Ireland in the opener with an almost fully fit (Skinner aside) squad.
     
  6. VusoRSA

    VusoRSA Academy Player

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    Win or lose the 1st match against the ABs, I'm confident we can win this one, in 2011 we lost because of our own mistake to the wallabies playing our golden oldies from the previous WC, in 2015 we lost to an all conquering ABs team, by a few points, but this time we have a mix of both experience and youth!, and hopefully luck will be on our side too. Goodluck to every Nation though, and may the best one win. Go Bokke!
     
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  7. Dave Davies

    Dave Davies Academy Player

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    Ok. Getting totally psyched. I have a few remaining questions for all you experts out there...

    1. The weather conditions are going to play a big role. Which team (besides Japan) benefits most from this, and which has the biggest disadvantage?

    2. The world rankings changed again, but nobody, including the Irish from what I can tell, believe in them. Will the winner of the RWC solve that argument for a while, at least?

    3. As the Pro14 gets going, the best teams will have theoretically lost the most players for the RWC. Which team(s) will seek to benefit from this early on to get some easy league table points?

    4. Which referees worry you the most? I.e., who would you least like to see in charge of your country’s biggest match?

    Thanks y’all!
     
  8. Umaga's Witness

    Umaga's Witness First XV

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    To me there are 6 teams with realistic chances of winning the world cup. The biggest factors will be
    1. not needing to win more than 3 tough games in a row
    2. before a tough knockout game, having played a tough game in the last 2 weeks. The winner of pool B and D get a relatively easy QF, but still tough, so wouldn't have needed a tough game in the last 2 weeks of pool play.
    3. before a tough knockout game, having had 2 tough games during the world cup.

    Australia has their two hardest pool games in the first weeks. IF they win both, they at least get an easy QF. For the semi they'll be well placed, as they would only have had one tough game in the 2 weeks prior. IF they win the semi they'll be perfectly placed for the final. IF they don't win both their tough pool games, they won't be in such a good position for their QF.

    Wales is in the same position as Australia.

    New Zealand only have one tough game in the pool, but IF they win will have a relatively easy QF. For the semi they'll be well placed, as they would only have had one tough game in the 2 weeks prior. IF they win the semi they'll be perfectly placed for the final. IF they don't win their tough pool game, they won't be in such a good position for their QF.

    South Africa is in the same position as NZ

    But the loser of the NZ SA game will play Ireland in the QF. So let's see how good Ireland's drw is.

    Ireland have one tough game first up, and two semi tough games at other points, one just prior to the QF. They won't be particularly prepared for the QF either, but slightly more so than their opposition. IF they win their QF, they are a good chance to win the semi. Now, for the final, the same semi tough game that gave them an advantage over their QF opposition will hinder their chances, as they have had 3 almost tough games in a row. can't have it both ways.

    If England play a second string team against France in their last pool game, they will meet all the criteria all the way through.


    So, based on these criteria alone

    QF1 England will beat The loser of Aus vs Wales
    QF2 Winner of NZ v SA will beat Scotland
    QF3 Winner of Aus v Wales will beat winner of Frn v Arg
    QF4 Ireland will beat loser of NZ v SA
    SF1 England v winner of NZ v SA is anyones game
    SF2 Ireland v winner of Wal v Aus is anyones game
    Final won't be won by Ireland. is anyone elses game.

    I'd say England is probably better placed for the SF than their opposition
    Ireland is probably best placed for the other semi.

    So perhaps England to beat Ireland in the final.

    But noone has particularly worse draws, except it will be tough for Ireland to go all the way.


    they could easly beat argentina and france with second string teams though, s they don't haev to play their full strength team for 5 games in a row. especillay f they can afford to lose one of thise games.
    i think having a recent tough game before your quarterfinal is a massive advantage. as is having a tough pool in general. i had predicted the all blacks would lose the quarterfinal, whoever they were to come up against, prior to the 2007 world cup for this very reason. They would likely play second place in an incredibly tight pool between agentina, france, and ireland, with Those pool games just prior to the quarterfinla. My other reasonign being second place would have lost a game in their pool and had something to work on.

    At the same time, I think winning several tough games in a row is difficult. more than 3, I'd say. So the ideal draw would be to have more two tough pool games, as your second and third to last games in your pool.

    Also, Teams that can afford to play second string teams for 2 or 3 of their pool games have a massive advantage in being able to win the world cup.
    i think the weather will only be a factor in the pool stages, particularly the early pool stages, as the weather later in the tournament will be pretty good. Ireland I think will make best use of the conditions. they have the kicking to put the other teams under pressure and the catching to nullify the opposing threat. but, for them, it won't matter. they are just as well off if they come first or second in their pool anyway, and will find it very easy to get to at least second regardless.

    the world cup affords the winners bragging rights but doesn't tell you who the best team in the world is.
     
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    Last edited: Sep 14, 2019
  9. The_Blindside

    The_Blindside International

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    Well, not sure we could just beat both France and Argentina with our 2nd teams. I am sure we will certainly use the full 31 squad across the games, whilst retaining the key players like George, Sinckler, Itoje, Binny, Farrell, Tuilagi, May.

    Also France and Argentina will raise their game against us, especially the French who we have a great rivalry with and whose players should be better rested and more cohesive after a few games at the World Cup.

    Still it’s a tough schedule to go all the way to the final and win it.
     
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  10. BPM

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    Yep. Any team from pool C would effectively need to beat 5 tier 1 opponents to win the RWC.

    For England, the schedule means that these 5 would be on the trot. In a way, it could work in our favour as the games get progressively more difficult, but it’s a tough ask.

    As The Blindside has just said, teams have a particular desire to beat England which means we can’t afford to be anything less than fully switched on.
     
  11. The Alpha Bro

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    I wouldn't be surprised if England have the pool wrapped up by their 3rd game, they'll definitely have qualification guaranteed too so I'd be nearly certain we'll see rotation v France.

    That last paragraph is a bit of a tired narrative too, especially in terms of this world cup where you're likely to play France, Argentina and Australia who are routinely awful v England. With the exception of Wales and Scotland I don't think it applies. Ireland's best performance of the year is usually v a Southern Hemisphere side - I reckon 2012 was the last time it was England, you could argue 2017 but beating South Africa by 35 points sticks out that year. New Zealand and South Africa both care more about their Tri nations rivalries too. England definitely brings other nations more provocative fans (to put it nicely) out but I don't think it translates to on pitch performance at all at all.
     
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  12. FrenchFan

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    I don't believe les Bleus will find their cohesion. Too late for that. Hey they've had 4 years! This is what you get when you don't have a consistent selection policy outside of les musical chairs.
    Easy run for England ahead of bigger games.
     
  13. Umaga's Witness

    Umaga's Witness First XV

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    i think it will be tough if you play your full strength team against France, for sure. I reckon it's worth the risk to play a second string team. Do you particularly care if you lose that one? the quarterfinal will likely be tough whoever it is you face.
    i think you'll find teams have a particular desire to win any world cup game.
    sad but true
     
  14. The_Blindside

    The_Blindside International

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    Of course I’d care losing to France; it’s like saying would NZ care about losing to Australia (Trans Tasman derby being more akin to the trans channel derby) if they were in the same pool or even v SA when they do meet. Both NZ and SA will reach the quarters, but they would still care about that first game .

    Don’t want to lose v Argentina either. Winning both would give the squad massive confidence boost heading into the quarters. Can’t control who England face in the quarters, whether it be Australia, Wales or Fiji.
     
  15. mdaclarke

    mdaclarke Bench Player

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    Don't agree with this, Ireland will get beaten by the loser of NZ v SA (in my opinion)
    Winner of Ireland v NZ/SA quarter will beat Wal or Aus
     
  16. Leinster Fan

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    1. Don't really know much about weather conditions in Japan, apprently the pitches will be very fast which should theoretically suit Scotland.
    2. The world rankings are so close at the moment that who's actually changes every week. RWC games are very heavily weighted though the rankings will be very different coming out of the tournament. They're only actually relevant once every four years (for RWC pool seedings) and that's years away so they don't actually matter.
    3. Leinster usually do very well in these periods cause of depth. The Italian and Scottish teams tend to suffer the most.
    4. All of them except Barnes and a few of the French guys if I'm honest.
     
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  17. Umaga's Witness

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    It was just based on those criteria alone, the criteria that i think determines whether yiu have a good draw or not. It assumed each of the top 6 teams are equally good.
     
  18. The_Blindside

    The_Blindside International

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    Last but not least, the rugby world cup final 2015, which I was very lucky to attend.



    Richie McCaw's last walk as an All black's player to Twickenham stadium.



    All black Haka at the final complete with backing from their fans.



    McCaw becomes the first captain in world cup history to lift the trophy on consecutive occasions.



    Winning team celebrating in front of fans.

    Who will be the captain and team to lift the trophy on 2 November 2019?
     
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    Last edited: Sep 16, 2019
  19. Bull

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    I don't think any specific team will benefit from the humid weather but I do believe that the Bokke will be the most familiar to the humidity apart from Japan.

    The French, they make me a bit nervous.
     
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    Last edited: Sep 17, 2019
  20. Bull

    Bull Bench Player

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    The Aussies should also be used to humidity.

    Coming back to the French refs though, Jerome Garces was absolutely correct in his handling of the red card to Barrett in the clash with Australia. What I also think will play a part is that apart from Japan there won't be any home crowd advantage when possibly dishing out cards, as we've seen in previous tournaments.
     
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    Last edited: Sep 17, 2019
  21. The_Blindside

    The_Blindside International

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    The drop goal is going to play a big part in this World Cup.
     
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