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Rugby World Cup 2019 predictions

RugbyUSA

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I'm cheering for the USA of course, but I think New Zealand will win the 2019 Rugby World Cup.
 
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ratsapprentice

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I think Russia could get beaten by 100+ points.
 

ratsapprentice

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They've gone backwards in the last 10 years, it seems.

Although I'll admit I haven't followed t2 rugby closely in a long time.
 

TRF_Olyy

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They've gone backwards in the last 10 years, it seems.
Since Steve Diamond left.

That's not with Sale tinted glasses or anything, but he was heavily involved in every aspect of Russian rugby from grassroots to their (semi?) Pro League to their national side and got them to their first ever world cup.
Since he left they have guys they ship in to coach the national side for a few months a year while also moonlighting for other sides and they've gone to ****. They're never gonna be challenging the tier 1 sides but they've got the player base and talent to be on the level of the Canada's/America's out there.
Especially as their national sports are so physical they should mop up any athletes who grew up wrestling or playing ice hockey.
 

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Jacob Stockdale probably won't start against them but if he does I can see him wrapping the tournament top try scorer prize up in that game alone.
 

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Last update before the opening match.
Ireland go into the RWC holding the Raeburn Shield and ranked #1, but New Zealand still have the best chance of winning. (because they have a more favourable draw at the QF stage)

RWC Projection Pie Chart 2019-09-09.pngRWC Projections Box-Whisker-Weighted-Interpolation 2019-09-09.gif

Chances to earn automatic qualification for RWC 2023 (top 3 in pool):
  • 100% - Pool A - Ireland
  • 100% - Pool B - New Zealand
  • 100% - Pool C - England
  • 100% - Pool B - South Africa
  • >99.9% - Pool D - Wales
  • 98.8% - Pool D - Australia
  • 98.6% - Pool A - Scotland
  • 97.0% - Pool A - Japan
  • 95.0% - Pool B - Italy
  • 91.5% - Pool C - France
  • 75% - Pool D - Fiji
  • 69% - Pool C - Argentina
  • 26% - Pool D - Georgia
  • 23% - Pool C - USA
  • 16% - Pool C - Tonga
  • 4.0% - Pool A - Samoa
  • 2.5% - Pool B - Canada
  • 2.5% - Pool B - Namibia
  • 0.5% - Pool D - Uruguay
  • 0.1% - Pool A - Russia
Chances to progress to Quarterfinals (top 2 in pool):
  • 100% - Pool B - New Zealand
  • 99.8% - Pool B - South Africa
  • 99.5% - Pool C - England
  • 98.4% - Pool A - Ireland
  • 97.0% - Pool D - Wales
  • 87% - Pool D - Australia
  • 69% - Pool C - France
  • 59% - Pool A - Scotland
  • 43% - Pool A - Japan
  • 25% - Pool C - Argentina
  • 15% - Pool D - Fiji
  • 4.5% - Pool C - USA
  • 3.0% - Pool C - Tonga
  • 1.8% - Pool D - Georgia
  • 0.3% - Pool A - Samoa
  • 0.3% - Pool B - Italy
  • 0% - Pool D - Uruguay
  • 0% - Pool A - Russia
  • 0% - Pool B - Canada
  • 0% - Pool B - Namibia
Chances to top pool:
  • 91.5% - Pool C - England
  • 89% - Pool A - Ireland
  • 68% - Pool D - Wales
  • 60% - Pool B - New Zealand
  • 40% - Pool B - South Africa
  • 30% - Pool D - Australia
  • 7.5% - Pool A - Scotland
  • 7.5% - Pool C - France
  • 4.0% - Pool A - Japan
  • 1.6% - Pool D - Fiji
  • 1.0% - Pool C - Argentina
  • >0.1% - Pool D - Georgia
  • 0% - Pool C - USA
  • 0% - Pool B - Italy
  • 0% - Pool C - Tonga
  • 0% - Pool A - Samoa
Chances to progress to Semifinals:
  • 73% - Pool B - New Zealand _ (88% if 1st in pool, 51% if 2nd)
  • 72% - Pool D - Wales _______ (86% if 1st in pool, 46% if 2nd)
  • 69% - Pool C - England ______ (71% if 1st in pool, 51% if 2nd)
  • 57% - Pool A - Ireland _______ (60% if 1st in pool, 45% if 2nd)
  • 56% - Pool B - South Africa __ (81% if 1st in pool, 40% if 2nd)
  • 40% - Pool D - Australia _____ (75% if 1st in pool, 31% if 2nd)
  • 14% - Pool C - France _______ (~40% if 1st in pool, 19% if 2nd)
  • 9.0% - Pool A - Scotland _____ (~25% if 1st in pool, 13% if 2nd)
  • 4.0% - Pool A - Japan _______ (~20% if 1st in pool, 9.0% if 2nd)
  • 2.5% - Pool C - Argentina ____ (~20% if 1st in pool, 10% if 2nd)
  • 2.2% - Pool D - Fiji __________ (~50% if 1st in pool, 10% if 2nd)
  • 0.1% - Pool C - USA _________ (2% if 2nd in pool)
  • 0.1% - Pool D - Georgia _____ (10-90% if 1st in pool, ~3% if 2nd)
  • 0% - Pool B - Italy
  • 0% - Pool C - Tonga
  • 0% - Pool A - Samoa
Chances to place in top 3:
  • 64% - Pool B - New Zealand _ (1st 27%, 2nd 20%, 3rd 17%)
  • 55% - Pool C - England ______ (1st 18%, 2nd 17%, 3rd 20%)
  • 53% - Pool D - Wales ________ (1st 14%, 2nd 17%, 3rd 22%)
  • 51% - Pool A - Ireland _______ (1st 23%, 2nd 16%, 3rd 12%)
  • 44% - Pool B - South Africa __ (1st 14%, 2nd 16%, 3rd 14%)
  • 22% - Pool D - Australia _____ (1st 4.0%, 2nd 8.5%, 3rd 10%)
  • 4.5% - Pool A - Scotland _____ (1st 0.5%, 2nd 2.2%, 3rd 1.8%)
  • 4.5% - Pool C - France _______ (1st 0.4%, 2nd 1.6%, 3rd 2.5%)
  • 1.8% - Pool A - Japan ________ (1st 0.2%, 2nd 0.8%, 3rd 0.8%)
  • 0.6% - Pool D - Fiji ___________ (1st <0.1%, 2nd 0.2%, 3rd 0.3%)
  • 0.5% - Pool C - Argentina ____ (1st ----------, 2nd 0.2%, 3rd 0.3%)
 
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scotty507

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Jacob Stockdale probably won't start against them but if he does I can see him wrapping the tournament top try scorer prize up in that game alone.
Naa that will likly be an AB or SA wing with italy, nambia and Canada. They will likly give game time to the likes of reece/bridge and Kolbe. We seen what ABs put past tonga.
 

The Alpha Bro

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Jacob Stockdale probably won't start against them but if he does I can see him wrapping the tournament top try scorer prize up in that game alone.
Don't get me wrong, Ireland will most likely win that game, but I can't see them getting the BP... They lack a cutting edge you know, everyone's said it for years and it's always been true!
 

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Best home reffing final ever

The group that made the 2011 final were a team. They weren’t brilliant but they had men like William Servat, Thierry Dusautoir, Julien Bonnaire, Aurelien Rougerie, Lionel Nallet, Dimitri Yachvili who all stepped up and led from the front. Not like the current shower of prima donnas.

Les Bleus under Brunel don’t even qualify as a ‘team’.

Lose the first game v Argentina and les Bleus will be back on the plane pronto. Might as well leave the engine running. If the typhoon blows from east to west they’ll be home in a jiffy.
 
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FrenchFan

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I would contend England have the best pool to make it to the final

Pool A Ireland Scotland Japan are better than France and possibly Argentina for Japan
Pool B NZ and SA are way better than France and Argentina and both are title contenders while Fra and Arg aren't.
Pool D Wales Australia Fiji are better than France and possibly Argentina for Fiji. This is the most competitive pool.
 

The_Blindside

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I would contend England have the best pool to make it to the final

Pool A Ireland Scotland Japan are better than France and possibly Argentina for Japan
Pool B NZ and SA are way better than France and Argentina and both are title contenders while Fra and Arg aren't.
Pool D Wales Australia Fiji are better than France and possibly Argentina for Fiji. This is the most competitive pool.
Argentina and France back to back weeks and that’s even before talking about QF, semi and final. 5 matches versus tier 1 sides in a row. Tough ask for England to get to the final and win it on the back of that draw.

Of course, I hope I am wrong, but the pessimist in me and the fact I have doubts this England side can adapt to the game as it unfolds - see Scotland and Wales in this year’s 6 nations, plus a captain in Farrell who is still pretty new to the captaincy role for England and has his brain fart moments under pressure like not wrapping his arms around when tackling. Yeah, you can say I have my doubts.
 

TRF_Olyy

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Yeah, I think we've got the hardest group - Not necessarily in terms of team strength (Springboks and All Blacks having to play each other in the groups, for example) but no one else has three realistic teams fighting for the two spots.
 

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Yeah, I think we've got the hardest group - Not necessarily in terms of team strength (Springboks and All Blacks having to play each other in the groups, for example) but no one else has three realistic teams fighting for the two spots.
Yes pool A with Ire Sco Jap and pool D with Aus Wal Fij
 

The Alpha Bro

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Yeah, I think we've got the hardest group - Not necessarily in terms of team strength (Springboks and All Blacks having to play each other in the groups, for example) but no one else has three realistic teams fighting for the two spots.
Pool B and D have two teams fighting for top spot barring a massive **** up.

Pool A and C have two teams fighting for second save for a massive **** up by the top seed.

I think England have the second easiest group to top and the second toughest draw, 5 tier 1 games in a month if you pass the quarters.

Similarly Ireland have the easiest group to top, it wouldn't surprise me if we had it wrapped up before playing Samoa, but the toughest draw by virtue of facing an equally fresh NZ or SA in the QF.

The winner of the NZ SA game immediately becomes a strong tournament favourite in my opinion.
 

FrenchFan

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see Scotland and Wales in this year’s 6 nations, plus a captain in Farrell who is still pretty new to the captaincy role for England and has his brain fart moments under pressure like not wrapping his arms around when tackling. Yeah, you can say I have my doubts.
but Sco and Wal are better than the opposition in your pool. My whole point.
 
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