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RWC 2023 Predictions
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Brigantine
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If Scotland were on the other side of the draw, they'd be a shoo-in for bronze. As it stands they're a shoo-in for 3rd in group
What the rankings say:
QF 1: Fiji vs England
-------------------------------------SF 1: Fiji vs Ireland
QF 2: Ireland vs New Zealand
------------------------------------------------------------------------Final: Ireland vs France
------------------------------------------------------------------------Bronze: Fiji vs Argentina
QF 3: Argentina vs Australia
-------------------------------------SF 2: Argentina vs France
QF 4: France vs South Africa
What I say:
(hedging my bets on 3 games)
QF 1: Australia vs Argentina
-------------------------------------SF 1: Argentina vs Ireland(/France)
QF 2: Ireland vs France ?
------------------------------------------------------------------------Final: Ireland(/France) vs South Africa (Wild card: Scotland)
------------------------------------------------------------------------Bronze: ? England vs Argentina ------- (Wild card: Fiji via QF 1)
QF 3: England vs Fiji(/Wales)
-------------------------------------SF 2: England vs South Africa
QF 4: New Zealand vs South Africa
[EDIT: I'll add, I think Australia/Fiji/Wales end up with 3 wins each, and placement in group comes down to bonus points. Unless e.g. Fiji slips up vs Georgia]
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Oh no, not England vs SA !
That could be a severe thrashing. I seriously hope you have got that one wrong.
Brigantine
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I only give Argentina the edge for bronze on the basis their morale will be better. To your point, maybe it will be an even bigger factor than I considered
It could also be SF 2 England vs Scotland. Not likely but also not crazy
In a normal world cup, picking 3rd and 4th gets prohibitively messy with so many options.
Not so this time, given how things have developed since the draw
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Does anyone know who will control the big screen at the game?
Quarters:
Aus v Arg
RSA v Fra
Eng v Fij
NZ v Ire
Semis:
Aus v RSA
Eng v NZ
Final:
RSA v NZ
Winners = NZ
I've got Eng topping their pool as they always seem to shine at WCs. Pressure is off NZ, to an extent, and is on the Boks. You'd never throw a game and it's always good to hit a WC off the back of an unbeaten streak, but I can imagine a few AB players not too disappointed that the expectations are a bit lower than normal. Ireland have a great side, but they always struggle at WCs. I don't think this will be any different. France will also underachieve.
Aus v Arg
RSA v Fra
Eng v Fij
NZ v Ire
Semis:
Aus v RSA
Eng v NZ
Final:
RSA v NZ
Winners = NZ
I've got Eng topping their pool as they always seem to shine at WCs. Pressure is off NZ, to an extent, and is on the Boks. You'd never throw a game and it's always good to hit a WC off the back of an unbeaten streak, but I can imagine a few AB players not too disappointed that the expectations are a bit lower than normal. Ireland have a great side, but they always struggle at WCs. I don't think this will be any different. France will also underachieve.
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Boks for me. Monstrous pack, filthy bench, peaking at the right time and RWC pedigree.
France are quality but think they still have it in them to implode in the second half. They only just scraped past Scotland at home with a full strength 23.
France are quality but think they still have it in them to implode in the second half. They only just scraped past Scotland at home with a full strength 23.
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In terms of score line. If they struggled then there would be a question mark over their form. Like with any major tournament it is about it all coming together at the right time.
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I hope France. Just because.
I previously predicted the ABs. I'll nervously stick to that. Not the best team to come from NZ but better than they looked on Friday - and they did play half the game with 14. A hammering may also serve to focus minds.
The very safe bet is the Boks - horrible packs and decent backs although 10 may be an issue. Holders so know how to get across the line and no-one will get an easy ride against them.
Fri and Ire should be at the pointy end, but Ire don't have that experience and a big question will be how Fra respond to home team pressure. Hard to predict how either will cope with high stakes knock out rugby.
The uneven draw won't help, but contrary to everything we've seen over the last few years I think it's another for the SH.
I previously predicted the ABs. I'll nervously stick to that. Not the best team to come from NZ but better than they looked on Friday - and they did play half the game with 14. A hammering may also serve to focus minds.
The very safe bet is the Boks - horrible packs and decent backs although 10 may be an issue. Holders so know how to get across the line and no-one will get an easy ride against them.
Fri and Ire should be at the pointy end, but Ire don't have that experience and a big question will be how Fra respond to home team pressure. Hard to predict how either will cope with high stakes knock out rugby.
The uneven draw won't help, but contrary to everything we've seen over the last few years I think it's another for the SH.
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I think Ireland are too dependant on the health/fitness of 1 or 2 players; so whilst they can beat anyone on their day, can they get through a pool stage, and 2 knock-out matches to arrive at a final fit and firing? I'm not convinced.
NZ will be hurting after that match with SA; we can't know yet if they collapse under that, or if they come back looking for blood - I strongly suspect the latter, and I wouldn't like to be France taking the backlash - I don't think they would be able to sustain a backlash through to a final, however.
So France v South Africa in the final. From there, heart says France, head says South Africa.
I think both have the depth to cope with absences, and the strength to go all the way, even if they lose a pool match.
Of course 2 of the top 4 will be losing a pool match, 2 of the QFs will be matches worthy of the final (unlike any of the SFs)
My bias - France have been my 2nd team since the late 80s, it was that team (and the Bath team of that era) that had me fall in love with rugby. Given England's last 12 months, I may even be supporting France more strongly than I support England this Autumn.
NZ will be hurting after that match with SA; we can't know yet if they collapse under that, or if they come back looking for blood - I strongly suspect the latter, and I wouldn't like to be France taking the backlash - I don't think they would be able to sustain a backlash through to a final, however.
So France v South Africa in the final. From there, heart says France, head says South Africa.
I think both have the depth to cope with absences, and the strength to go all the way, even if they lose a pool match.
Of course 2 of the top 4 will be losing a pool match, 2 of the QFs will be matches worthy of the final (unlike any of the SFs)
My bias - France have been my 2nd team since the late 80s, it was that team (and the Bath team of that era) that had me fall in love with rugby. Given England's last 12 months, I may even be supporting France more strongly than I support England this Autumn.
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For me SA have to be the safe money, they are proven WC winners and currently look the most ominous team out there.
France and Ireland are very strong contenders for obvious reasons, Ireland are the unknown and Saturdays game - while not a full representation of starting players, will have been noted by many - they won't scare the Boks IMO.
France have shown what they are capble of doing, although in both the 6N and in the warmups Scotland were not a walkover to the French, they need to hit some consistent form and disclipline which could easily come with tournament mentality.
NZ are my 4th favourites currently, they will have not taken Fridays game well and no doubt some soul searching will be underway. Can never write them off.
Scotland need to do something spectacular in the groups, meeting Ireland last could be backs to the wall for both teams and maybe with a bit of local support maybe an upset? It's within them to do it but the scale of the task is huge.
France and Ireland are very strong contenders for obvious reasons, Ireland are the unknown and Saturdays game - while not a full representation of starting players, will have been noted by many - they won't scare the Boks IMO.
France have shown what they are capble of doing, although in both the 6N and in the warmups Scotland were not a walkover to the French, they need to hit some consistent form and disclipline which could easily come with tournament mentality.
NZ are my 4th favourites currently, they will have not taken Fridays game well and no doubt some soul searching will be underway. Can never write them off.
Scotland need to do something spectacular in the groups, meeting Ireland last could be backs to the wall for both teams and maybe with a bit of local support maybe an upset? It's within them to do it but the scale of the task is huge.
TopTen2003
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Have had a suspicion all along but think Australia to reach a final and then it all comes down to raising their game for that one off 80 mins.
I think of all the teams outside of the Top 4 world ranked sides who are being touted as contenders, they are the one who have the ability to strike and at their best can give anyone of those a game.
It sounds ridiculous on paper given they are winless under Eddie, but they win their group easily IMO and then they likely play Japan or England in the QF which again I think they have too much for either of those sides at the moment- suddenly you're looking at an EJ team who go from 0-6 to 6-6, the belief will be coming and at the SF stage they will face a top 4 (or 5, counting Scotland who you never know could knock out Ireland or SA), who have had intense group games.
It is not inconceivable that Eddie has a fresh, more confident Aussie side facing a slightly wounded top 4 nation in the Semi Final, perhaps similar to ENG-NZ in 2019? Where they peak and surprise?
I don't see any other side doing it, but that Aussie side has some quality in there and for me are the only lively outsider worth considering.
I think of all the teams outside of the Top 4 world ranked sides who are being touted as contenders, they are the one who have the ability to strike and at their best can give anyone of those a game.
It sounds ridiculous on paper given they are winless under Eddie, but they win their group easily IMO and then they likely play Japan or England in the QF which again I think they have too much for either of those sides at the moment- suddenly you're looking at an EJ team who go from 0-6 to 6-6, the belief will be coming and at the SF stage they will face a top 4 (or 5, counting Scotland who you never know could knock out Ireland or SA), who have had intense group games.
It is not inconceivable that Eddie has a fresh, more confident Aussie side facing a slightly wounded top 4 nation in the Semi Final, perhaps similar to ENG-NZ in 2019? Where they peak and surprise?
I don't see any other side doing it, but that Aussie side has some quality in there and for me are the only lively outsider worth considering.
Booboobang
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France and NZ walk the group despite italy looking decent in losses and uruguay being a surprise package with how well they play. I think home soil and coaching puts france above NZ for me.
Again, SA and ireland are the class of this group for me, but there was part of me tempted to take scotland over one of them just as a bolter since they look great when they are in full flow, but they always seem to choke and not live up to the hype when lights are on, how WR let a group like this happen is beyond me. Either way RSA over ireland for me just because they look better and ireland look rusty.
May be overly reactionary on england because emotions, but nothing they have done over the past 2 years fills me with any hope they magically turn it on come world cup with it seeming to get actively worse the closer we get. Argentina walk that group for me, leaving england, samoa, japan. Samoa had the beating of Japan in the pacific cup and they are solid at the set piece and forward play under mapasua as well as putting up a decent attack so I could easily see them taking england. Hot takes though, so more than willing to get egg on my face if it plays to expected with england winning out.
Wales look a mess to me and cant see them doing much at all. I think Australia take this group mostly because their attack looks decent and scrum looks good. I think them catching Fiji a week after back to back wins against T1 teams means they could edge it, plus their scrum looked ot be bullying frances last night, thats scary.
Quarters:
Australia v samoa - step to far for samoa, tight game but australia get it done.
RSA v NZ - RSA dominate the forward game and get NZ playing their game
Argentina v Fij - depth at key spots and cohesion catches up with fiji. Would be praying for a fiji win if this draw did happen though.
France v Ire - Ireland do an ireland, failing to fully shake of the cobwebs we have seen so far, and missing key players with injury replacements dont quite make up for it, close game but france take it.
Semis:
Aus v RSA - a true demolition, RSA sweep
France v Argentina - not particularrly close, france are just better
Final:
RSA v France - all time classic final with all the drama of a host nation coming from behind to win it in the dying minutes for the first win in their history.
Winner:
France
And with that, I am prepared to be completly wrong on everything. Scotland shock the world and make it out of the strongest pool I can ever remember, australia continue to lose every game under eddie including georgia and portugal. Ireland go on a storm, dominating a group of death, stomping on french hearts in teh quarters on teh way to the final. And Finally England really were just playing incompetent as master chef steve was cooking up a masterclass in training, it clickes, he unleashes the plan of all plans and **** houses his way past everyone in sight on way to a second web ellis, as I delete every post on this forum I have made about him in recent weeks adorning a mask of his beautiful face in celebraton as an always believer.
Again, SA and ireland are the class of this group for me, but there was part of me tempted to take scotland over one of them just as a bolter since they look great when they are in full flow, but they always seem to choke and not live up to the hype when lights are on, how WR let a group like this happen is beyond me. Either way RSA over ireland for me just because they look better and ireland look rusty.
May be overly reactionary on england because emotions, but nothing they have done over the past 2 years fills me with any hope they magically turn it on come world cup with it seeming to get actively worse the closer we get. Argentina walk that group for me, leaving england, samoa, japan. Samoa had the beating of Japan in the pacific cup and they are solid at the set piece and forward play under mapasua as well as putting up a decent attack so I could easily see them taking england. Hot takes though, so more than willing to get egg on my face if it plays to expected with england winning out.
Wales look a mess to me and cant see them doing much at all. I think Australia take this group mostly because their attack looks decent and scrum looks good. I think them catching Fiji a week after back to back wins against T1 teams means they could edge it, plus their scrum looked ot be bullying frances last night, thats scary.
Quarters:
Australia v samoa - step to far for samoa, tight game but australia get it done.
RSA v NZ - RSA dominate the forward game and get NZ playing their game
Argentina v Fij - depth at key spots and cohesion catches up with fiji. Would be praying for a fiji win if this draw did happen though.
France v Ire - Ireland do an ireland, failing to fully shake of the cobwebs we have seen so far, and missing key players with injury replacements dont quite make up for it, close game but france take it.
Semis:
Aus v RSA - a true demolition, RSA sweep
France v Argentina - not particularrly close, france are just better
Final:
RSA v France - all time classic final with all the drama of a host nation coming from behind to win it in the dying minutes for the first win in their history.
Winner:
France
And with that, I am prepared to be completly wrong on everything. Scotland shock the world and make it out of the strongest pool I can ever remember, australia continue to lose every game under eddie including georgia and portugal. Ireland go on a storm, dominating a group of death, stomping on french hearts in teh quarters on teh way to the final. And Finally England really were just playing incompetent as master chef steve was cooking up a masterclass in training, it clickes, he unleashes the plan of all plans and **** houses his way past everyone in sight on way to a second web ellis, as I delete every post on this forum I have made about him in recent weeks adorning a mask of his beautiful face in celebraton as an always believer.
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Its a difficult RWC to predict!
I don't read too much into NZ's record loss and our winning that one just as I didn't read too much into our loss in NZ where we were blitzed but showed enough to indicate we can turn it around. The same counts here in that small margins and NZ would be right back in it though they sorely missed Frizzell and Retallick and then on top of those S Barrett and Lomax earlyish. They'll be back.
France looked good as well and despite the narrow scoreline Ireland have been the most consistent side since the last RWC...
But we know the draw means it's not these 4 that are going to be contesting the semi's so you have to cast the net wider but it'd be considered an upset if a team from the other side of the draw took a semi but stranger things have happened.
I really can't split it so I won't be trying to rationalize my picks and will simply go with my heart and say SA takes the final and I don't care who the opposing team is but lets call it NZ. I just feel it in my gut that this is the stage being set. I'd hate to see NZ or France lift the trophy so if it can't be us I'd cheer for either a new champ in Ireland as fair payback for their consistency or an underdog story and another ***le not looked for from an underdog England.
For me its the rivalry for RWC ***les with NZ on top of bad blood for our Super rugby exclusion and I don't want to see France take it because I feel cheated out of SA hosting this event and we probably won't see the tournament here again.
I don't read too much into NZ's record loss and our winning that one just as I didn't read too much into our loss in NZ where we were blitzed but showed enough to indicate we can turn it around. The same counts here in that small margins and NZ would be right back in it though they sorely missed Frizzell and Retallick and then on top of those S Barrett and Lomax earlyish. They'll be back.
France looked good as well and despite the narrow scoreline Ireland have been the most consistent side since the last RWC...
But we know the draw means it's not these 4 that are going to be contesting the semi's so you have to cast the net wider but it'd be considered an upset if a team from the other side of the draw took a semi but stranger things have happened.
I really can't split it so I won't be trying to rationalize my picks and will simply go with my heart and say SA takes the final and I don't care who the opposing team is but lets call it NZ. I just feel it in my gut that this is the stage being set. I'd hate to see NZ or France lift the trophy so if it can't be us I'd cheer for either a new champ in Ireland as fair payback for their consistency or an underdog story and another ***le not looked for from an underdog England.
For me its the rivalry for RWC ***les with NZ on top of bad blood for our Super rugby exclusion and I don't want to see France take it because I feel cheated out of SA hosting this event and we probably won't see the tournament here again.
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Booboobang
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When it comes to picking between the top 4 for me, it came down to, coaching, squad, winning experience.
All 4 have issues when it comes to at least one of those metrics.
Ireland - WC voodoo, injuries to some quality players, but top coaching ,strong squad, winning machine.
France - Injuries to key players, looked not peak so far in warm ups, but top coaching, squad is amazing even with the injuries, won a lot recently.
NZ - top squad, seem to have found form after hiring good assistants, but foster is still levels below the rest of the top guys.
SA - Top squad but some odd choices like only going with libbock at flyhalf a guy with less than 10 caps and shaky kicking, top coaching even if rassie is a dick, and won the thing last time.
The top 4 are a cut above the rest, but all are flawed in some way, personally think the final will be very good this year.
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A good summary and one that gets me very excited and anticipating a fair few upsets. I just hope it doesn't start with Scotland beating us. One step at a time.
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I said RSA in the other thread. What makes the difference in my book is the simplicity of their plan. Ireland's (could use another team but they are a good example) style is amazing to watch but it is quite sophisticated and I see a lot of things that could go wrong. And sure, they get it right more often than not, but the WC format doesn't favour them.
I came across a rather eloquent video about this on soc med. It basically expressed my thoughts in a very succinct way. I'll see if i can find it.
I came across a rather eloquent video about this on soc med. It basically expressed my thoughts in a very succinct way. I'll see if i can find it.
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The General RWC 2023 draw discussion thread
Post comments on thoughts on the how you think the draw will pan out.
www.therugbyforum.com
Posted this two months ago and I have changed my opinion somewhat since. I didn't think SA were that good, definitely didn't think they had a performance of Friday's standard in them and that strangling their way through the knockouts and relying on other teams fading was their only hope. I don't think that now. I also think the ease at which NZ were nullified indicates that they continue to have the weaknesses of the 2021 and 2022 teams and I honestly don't know how anyone is backing them to beat both France and Ireland, I'm pretty confident one of those sides will get them if not both.
SA and France at about 30% each
Ireland 20%
NZ 15%
Argentina 3%
Anyone else 2%
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I'll probably stick to my RSA prediction but after re-reading this thread i have to ask: Arent we underestimating NZ a bit? I mean, they are a bit off here and there but they don't need to perform head and shoulders above their average to beat anyone. I think pressure tends to be their worst enemy and this thread (just as a sample) kinda suggests they dont have that pressure anymore. And sure, RSA tore them a new one, but a) they beat them in the TRC not that long ago and b) they tend to do their homework and correct mistakes.
