[RWC2019][Pool B] Round 3 - Japan vs. Samoa (05/10/2019)

[TRF_heineken]

Venue: City of Toyota Stadium
Time: 12:30 CAT (SA, GMT+2)​

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Samoa were fully in the game with Scotland today until a slightly unfortunate try decision against them. But overall they looked so poor that even if Japan develop nerves, as against Russia, you have to think the win is automatic. A winning BP is far from certain.

37 year old Tusi Pisi (if selected) will be completely exhausted against his high octane former Sunwolves teammates.

 

[sigesige00]

How likely would Samoa do an upset against Japan?

 

[donmcdazzle]

How likely would Samoa do an upset against Japan?

Zero chance based on how they’re playing so far. They’re awful and have gone backwards.

 

[mania]

Zero chance based on how they’re playing so far. They’re awful and have gone backwards.

Samoa need to be a lot smarter to beat japan. they have the brawn

 

[donmcdazzle]

Samoa need to be a lot smarter to beat japan. they have the brawn

Agreed, they run out of ideas after 1 phase it seems.

 

[Kapa O Pango]

Pretty sure Japan got this, but it could be closer match then we expect.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Japan effectively going with their same side as against Ireland, but replacing the injured Mafi. I think they will win this as a result, probably with the BP from what I've seen of Samoa so far (although their struggles against Russia have been put into context a but today).

Japan by 13

 

[Brigantine]

How likely would Samoa do an upset against Japan?

Over in the predictions thread:

Projections of remaining pool games:
(Stuff has their own win/loss/draw game forecasts)

Match 26: Japan vs Samoa

• Japan to win: 97.0% (L2)
• Japan BP win: 93.5% (L2)
• Samoa loss w/o BP: 95.0% (L2)
  • Japan to get at least a losing BP: 99.6% (L4)
  • Samoa to not get BP win: 99.6% (L4)

 

[Crags]

Wonder if Samoa could just bring them down a bit and really level the pool out a bit. I am not too confident of that happening. Think it might be close though.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Over in the predictions thread:

I think this is one where the stats dont match the reality, maybe skewed by the double ranking points for the Ireland victory? Samoa are heavy dogs, but Japan aren't 97% favourites against any Tier2 side. I'd make it 80-20% at worse for Samoa.

This is a must watch contest for everyone given the potential implications. If Japan choke or Samoa turn up then the entire knockout stage is blown wide open again.

 

[Brigantine]

I think this is one where the stats dont match the reality, maybe skewed by the double ranking points for the Ireland victory?

I haven't been using the double weightings in RWC games to update team strength. In the RP table used in the model, Japan gained 1.69 RP from that game.
Still, the P6N this year Japan beat Fiji, while Samoa lost to USA, so there's still more room for Samoa to over-perform their ranking than under-perform it.

Samoa are heavy dogs, but Japan aren't 97% favourites against any Tier2 side. I'd make it 80-20% at worse for Samoa.

Fair enough, the model doesn't consider everything and there's plenty of room for opinion. Stuff has it at 91% - 8%, and this is a game I'm nervous about so I feel 8% is about right, subjectively.

This is a must watch contest for everyone given the potential implications. If Japan choke or Samoa turn up then the entire knockout stage is blown wide open again.

True, in terms of 'which side of the table will Ireland go into?' this is a significant game.

Considering Samoa qualified as play-off winner as #19 seed in the tournament, an upset over the hosts would be very interesting, but even if they win here Samoa still need either a win vs Ireland, or for Russia to beat Scotland, or some funky draw or double-BP result.

Japan need the BP win here though, in case they lose to Scotland by 7 or less. Obviously they'd prefer to win everything and top the pool, but their stated goal is to reach a QF, any QF, and for that a BP here would be valuable insurance.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Yup Samoa, yuuuuuuup.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

27mins to get to morrisons, get a shop done, get home

LET'S GO

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

27mins to get to morrisons, get a shop done, get home

LET'S GO

Odds on what Olyy forgets to get:
Butter 6/4
Milk 7/1
Bread 10/1
Extra small condoms for posh wanks 100/1
Arrogance 140/1

 

[big ginger 8]

Odds on what Olyy forgets to get:
Butter 6/4
Milk 7/1
Bread 10/1
Extra small condoms for posh wanks 100/1
Arrogance 140/1

Curry 200/1

 

[ncurd]

Well this might be an interesting match.

Go Japan!

 

[bushytop]

Odds on what Olyy forgets to get:
Butter 6/4
Milk 7/1
Bread 10/1
Extra small condoms for posh wanks 100/1
Arrogance 140/1

I’m not touching that until it rises a smidge!

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Tamara with sneaky hands on two teammates arses. Player.

 

[Reiser99]

Japan playing with intent, just what we want to see.