The General RWC 2023 draw discussion thread

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

This is the point though isn’t it, very rarely will you get universal acceptance that an individual is out and out the best in the world in that position, you will however find that it’s a conversation between 1-3 men in that position with little to choose sometimes it’s as simple as game plan would suit x, I’m really struggling to think of an England player if I was picking a world 15 tomorrow I’d even confidently consider.

Curry is the only one and maybe Watson (form depending). Also underhill when fit and Lawes.

Ironically loads of coaches would say Farrell but not us fans at large although I must saying his form recently has been class.

For me though if we had all our players on form you’d actually have quite a few in that discussion it’s just their England form and some cases club form have been rubbish.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

For me though if we had all our players on form you’d actually have quite a few in that discussion it’s just their England form and some cases club form have been rubbish.

Genuinely who?

Without thinking further I’d pick the whole French front row ahead of ours regardless of form.

Itoje of several years ago would have been in the conversation but even if he recovered his peak form now the competition is better and I think he’d fall short. Etzebeth has one of the shirts in perpetuity. Skelton maybe.

An on fire Curry might make the squad although VdF is the current world player of the year so bench at best. Underhill of 4 years ago, probably but that feels like ancient history now. Alldritt probably has 8, 6 possibly depends on what style you want to play. Savea with a strong claim to be in there somewhere.

9 er……

10 Farrell might be in the squad if he could reproduce his club form on the international stage, but he hasn’t really. N’tamack probably with Russell as the bench wild card.

Centres. Manu of 10 years ago, but current crop not even in the conversation. Might be tempted to go with a proven combination here so possibly a French or Irish flavour.

Wings. May and Watson in the past. Watson should still be a no brainer choice for England, but Penaud has one spot nailed down and there’s plenty of competition to join him. Kolbe possibly, McVdM if you want a bit of muscle. If you’re after out and out gas then LRZ might be a punt. Current Watson is probably just outside that conversation.

If the match was going to be a kick fest in howling wind and lashing rain Steward might get the nod, but Keenan’s also good in the air with a better all round game.

 

[Quel Carreleur]

A] It'll depend on your definition of "World Class"
B] the phrase "if we had all our players on form" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.

I'd say that, on their best form, Genge, Sinkler, Itoje, Curry, Underhill, one of Ford/Farrell depending on personal preference, Tuilagi, Watson and May could all be in the conversation for world class (especially if we use a reasonably loose definition).
Currently, only Curry is actually in the conversation, and beyond him, only Watson stands a realistic chance of joining him there this year. If the stars all align, Itoje and Underhill might get there again at some point.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

A] It'll depend on your definition of "World Class"
B] the phrase "if we had all our players on form" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.

I'd say that, on their best form, Genge, Sinkler, Itoje, Curry, Underhill, one of Ford/Farrell depending on personal preference, Tuilagi, Watson and May could all be in the conversation for world class (especially if we use a reasonably loose definition).
Currently, only Curry is actually in the conversation, and beyond him, only Watson stands a realistic chance of joining him there this year. If the stars all align, Itoje and Underhill might get there again at some point.

I think we’re talking World XV i.e the very best rather than the broader world class which might cover the top 3 or 4 in each position?

Either way, there wasn’t a single English player in the fans 2023 6N Team of the Tournament - in either the 1st or 2nd XV! And that’s before you add in another hemisphere. Given our results over the last few years that feels about right.

Unquestionably, many of our players haven’t lived up to their potential, but there are very very few of the current crop who I would expect to show sustained world class, let alone world leading, performances in future. Even if they did so in the past.

 

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

A] It'll depend on your definition of "World Class"
B] the phrase "if we had all our players on form" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.

I'd say that, on their best form, Genge, Sinkler, Itoje, Curry, Underhill, one of Ford/Farrell depending on personal preference, Tuilagi, Watson and May could all be in the conversation for world class (especially if we use a reasonably loose definition).
Currently, only Curry is actually in the conversation, and beyond him, only Watson stands a realistic chance of joining him there this year. If the stars all align, Itoje and Underhill might get there again at some point.

100% this. I was basing it on players being on form internationally and between 1-3 players in their position, so a world class player rather than a world 15.

A lot of the players above have been tainted by englands coaches but the potential is there in all those players above.

 

[BPM]

I also think it’s hard to shine individually when your team is in a really poor run of form.

With the exception of Tom Curry, I don’t think any England player is genuinely in contention to be in the top 3 for their position right now. However, I do feel that there are several that have the ability to be if they have a good World Cup - specifically Itoje, Curry, Willis, Watson and Steward.

Ironically, Mercer’s probably in the conversation at 8 along with Aldritt, Doris and Savea. If he had been playing for England, who knows?

 

[Jimbo]

I also think it’s hard to shine individually when your team is in a really poor run of form.

With the exception of Tom Curry, I don’t think any England player is genuinely in contention to be in the top 3 for their position right now. However, I do feel that there are several that have the ability to be if they have a good World Cup - specifically Itoje, Curry, Willis, Watson and Steward.

Ironically, Mercer’s probably in the conversation at 8 along with Aldritt, Doris and Savea. If he had been playing for England, who knows?

Mostly agree, not sure Steward ever really enters top spot conversations, he’s great under the high ball, even more noticeable considering how vulnerable England were previously, but that’s still pretty much bread and butter for a FB, he’s not bad defensively but no means is he anywhere near the best in the world, unless he gets his positioning spot on he’s likely to get done for pace frequently.

 

[BPM]

Maybe not now, but if he can continue build his game, I don’t see why he can’t be in the conversation. He is still very young.

The other consideration is who he’d be competing with. A lot of those who might have been the obvious choices a couple of years ago are definitely in the winters of their careers. I’m probably missing someone, but Keenan and Ramos are the only top contenders I can think of under 30.

 

[Jimbo]

He is but unless your in an eara which is pretty average or weak in your position I think you will struggle to be considered for top mentioning without some USP, he could potentially be considered on the grounds of size for other counter parts but is pretty slow both out and out and on the turn. Tyrone green and bouthier, I’d probably place ahead of him just in terms of raw attributes neither being established, pretty sure there will be countless others post WC.

 

[BPM]

Tyrone Green? OK … I’m a Quins fan and I’m a massive fan of Green at club level, but he’s not at Steward’s level IMO. Great, elusive runner, but tactically a wee bit naive.

Steward’s ‘SP’s aren’t unique, but he is excellent under the high ball and is underrated in an attacking capacity. His try scoring rate at test level is already decent, but he runs good lines and if England can start finding him a bit more, he could become a lot more of an asset. If he maximises those two areas, he’ll be there or thereabouts in the next couple of years IMO.

 

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

Steward isn’t as good under the highball as everyone makes out. He drops the ball from most of the England games and tigers that I’ve seen this year.

 

[Jimbo]

Tyrone Green? OK … I’m a Quins fan and I’m a massive fan of Green at club level, but he’s not at Steward’s level IMO. Great, elusive runner, but tactically a wee bit naive.

Steward’s ‘SP’s aren’t unique, but he is excellent under the high ball and is underrated in an attacking capacity. His try scoring rate at test level is already decent, but he runs good lines and if England can start finding him a bit more, he could become a lot more of an asset. If he maximises those two areas, he’ll be there or thereabouts in the next couple of years IMO.

TG, probably isn’t quite at that level due to injury, what he is though is quick, (pretty strong for his size) and has some pretty nice hands, he’s lethal on the counter, my point is I just think he’s more gifted and has a higher ceiling.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

Ireland has a great draw to at least win their quarterfinal. They play South Africa then a break then scotland then quarterfinal. That's a good time to knockout france or New Zealand who wouldnt have had a tough game for 6 weeks. they may start to tire after the quarter though.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

Exciting RWC. Feel like France are favourites but only have at most a ~30% chance of winning, feel like NZ have been at 50% or better since 2007 and England clear favourites in 03.

At risk of displaying horrendous maths, I'd have Ireland and NZ around as likely as each other to win at about 20% with SA slightly behind but somewhere in the 15%-20% range. Oz and Eng to split the leftover 10% and everyone else will be looking for upsets here and there but won't have a final say.

With every team more likely to lose the cup than win, we should be in for a treat. Can't wait.

For your information; Since and including 1999 the all blacks have only been given a greater than 50% Probability by the bookies once - in 2007. I don't know about before 1999.

 

[BPM]

Ireland has a great draw to at least win their quarterfinal. They play South Africa then a break then scotland then quarterfinal. That's a good time to knockout france or New Zealand who wouldnt have had a tough game for 6 weeks. they may start to tire after the quarter though.

Yes and no. I think finishing the pool stage with tougher games is probably better preparation for a QF. However, Scotland are a decent threat these days. If Ireland were to lose to SA, the Scotland game then becomes a big banana skin.

Other than that scenario, there isn’t an obvious advantage to coming first or second in either pool A or B. The QF will be almost equally hard either way and a bit like SA in 2019, I can easily see a runner up from A or B making the final.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

For your information; Since and including 1999 the all blacks have only been given a greater than 50% Probability by the bookies once - in 2007. I don't know about before 1999.

I'd be interested to see those, whilst not quite 50% I'd be surprised if they weren't getting "Tiger Woods v the Field" type odds.

Yes and no. I think finishing the pool stage with tougher games is probably better preparation for a QF. However, Scotland are a decent threat these days. If Ireland were to lose to SA, the Scotland game then becomes a big banana skin.

Other than that scenario, there isn’t an obvious advantage to coming first or second in either pool A or B. The QF will be almost equally hard either way and a bit like SA in 2019, I can easily see a runner up from A or B making the final.

As the third seeds go I think Italy are the only ones who would be a bigger surprise escaping the group than Scotland.

 

[BPM]

I don’t actually expect Scotland to beat Ireland (or SA) but if it’s a crunch, winner takes all game to qualify, I think ‘banana skin’ is a fair description.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

Other than that scenario, there isn’t an obvious advantage to coming first or second in either pool A or B. The QF will be almost equally hard either way and a bit like SA in 2019, I can easily see a runner up from A or B making the final.

i actually think coming second is an advantage. Losing always sharpens you. I always said ahead of '07 that there was a reasonable chance the all blacks would lose the quarterfinal. My reasoning was this:

we would be undercooked and be playing second place in by far the toughest pool: a pool with three teams in the top 6 at the time - france, Ireland, and Argentina. Second in that pool would have had the advantage of two tough games and the advantage of having lost one of them. Note too that back then there were 16 teams and no rest week so the pool stage took 3 weeks not 5; that meant whatever the order in which teams played their matches they were more likely, come quarterfinal time, to have recently played tough matches. Nowadays, in terms of how good your draw is, the order of your pool games is very important.

To your other point, I'll take that an adjust my previous statement: Ireland is set up well to win the quarterfinal if they make the quarterfinals. (But especially if they lose one of their games in the process)

 

[BPM]

I agree with the concept that losing can sharpen a team but not ‘always’. I think a lot depends on the mentality of the team in question. Ireland need to break their QF hoodoo and while losing to SA in the pool is unlikely to be terminal, it might put a badly-timed seed of doubt in to the players minds. Particularly when you consider the majority of the side have just lost crunch games with Leinster.

I want Ireland to do well, but can’t help but think their history of QF exits and the draw aren’t helpful.

I also agree that the sequence of games can be important. Having the big games later in the pool schedule probably favours the pool B teams come QF time.

From and England POV, having the big games first up is a bit of a double-edged sword. Given where we’re at, we probably would have benefitted from having the lower ranked teams first to build up a bit of momentum. At the same time, if Borthwick can get a couple of decent scalps in the first couple of rounds, it could be the confidence boost we need. Also having a much improved Samoa side in the final game means we’d have a competitive game to sharpen us before the QFs.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

2 months to go.

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

Australia Fiji Wales is gonna be a great group

 

[Welsh Exile]

Australia Fiji Wales is gonna be a great group

Georgia too.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Japan barely mustered a whimper vs NZ a this morning,
Argentina look worse than they've ever looked,
England are ****

Samoa will be eyeing up a quarter final with their recent injection of converts

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I think Argentina have potential to be decent to be honest, they've had some very good phase play but are the opposite of clinical today.

Today has only strengthened my prediction that the gap to the top 4 is insurmountable for the rest prior to the RWC.

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

I think Argentina have potential to be decent to be honest, they've had some very good phase play but are the opposite of clinical today.

Today has only strengthened my prediction that the gap to the top 4 is insurmountable for the rest prior to the RWC.

The second half of your comment makes up for your first.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

Georgia too.

Especially if teams play not quite their top teams against them

 

[BPM]

I’m not sure they can afford to be that complacent TBH. It’s not that long ago that they beat Wales, so they’d be foolish to take them lightly.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

The second half of your comment makes up for your first.

Probably fair, I just thought that they showed a bit of structure ball in hand, better than the Aussies there from the bits I saw and better than England and Wales in the 6n. Being a great defensive team in International rugby is very very hard, being a good defensive team isn't though. The challenge of taking a side who look like they know how to attack but are completely ill-disicplined and disorganised like Argentina yesterday is easier than what Borthwick or Gatland have to do imo, probably Jones too although I'll give him next week before judging.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Especially if teams play not quite their top teams against them

I don’t think we’ll risk anything if we can avoid it. Georgia beat us last time out and there’s not much difference between our first and 2nd choice in most positions anyway, even in positions we’ve got good depth in (back row) and positions we’re weak in (front 5)

Having said all that, while I have big respect for Georgia and have no doubt the coaching staff and players will be super motivated in that Georgia game, if we beat Fiji in our opening game(big if), then I think we beat Georgia comfortably in the end though it should still be a decent game

Goes without saying that I’ll be in no way shocked if they do us again though.

 

[BPM]

I’m really not sure what to expect from any of the teams in pool C TBH.

Australia were crap yesterday but they’ll definitely improve between now and the RWC. Even if they have a poor RC, they’re playing strong sides in a serious competition which is better than fairly meaningless ‘warm up’ games.

I don’t think Gatland’s second stint will be anywhere near as successful as the first, but he’ll bring a fit, well prepared side and even if the game plan is limited it will probably see them qualify.

Fiji have a strong squad and could be a genuine threat. I thought that last time out too though so I’m really not sure.

Georgia are motivated and hard to beat. They already know they can beat Wales and if they drag Fiji in to an arm wrestle, they could win that too I reckon.