The General RWC 2023 draw discussion thread

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

Steward isn't as good under the highball as everyone makes out. He drops the ball from most of the England games and tigers that I've seen this year.

 

[Jimbo]

Tyrone Green? OK … I'm a Quins fan and I'm a massive fan of Green at club level, but he's not at Steward's level IMO. Great, elusive runner, but tactically a wee bit naive.

Steward's 'SP's aren't unique, but he is excellent under the high ball and is underrated in an attacking capacity. His try scoring rate at test level is already decent, but he runs good lines and if England can start finding him a bit more, he could become a lot more of an asset. If he maximises those two areas, he'll be there or thereabouts in the next couple of years IMO.

TG, probably isn't quite at that level due to injury, what he is though is quick, (pretty strong for his size) and has some pretty nice hands, he's lethal on the counter, my point is I just think he's more gifted and has a higher ceiling.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

Ireland has a great draw to at least win their quarterfinal. They play South Africa then a break then scotland then quarterfinal. That's a good time to knockout france or New Zealand who wouldnt have had a tough game for 6 weeks. they may start to tire after the quarter though.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

Exciting RWC. Feel like France are favourites but only have at most a ~30% chance of winning, feel like NZ have been at 50% or better since 2007 and England clear favourites in 03.

At risk of displaying horrendous maths, I'd have Ireland and NZ around as likely as each other to win at about 20% with SA slightly behind but somewhere in the 15%-20% range. Oz and Eng to split the leftover 10% and everyone else will be looking for upsets here and there but won't have a final say.

With every team more likely to lose the cup than win, we should be in for a treat. Can't wait.

For your information; Since and including 1999 the all blacks have only been given a greater than 50% Probability by the bookies once - in 2007. I don't know about before 1999.

 

[BPM]

Ireland has a great draw to at least win their quarterfinal. They play South Africa then a break then scotland then quarterfinal. That's a good time to knockout france or New Zealand who wouldnt have had a tough game for 6 weeks. they may start to tire after the quarter though.

Yes and no. I think finishing the pool stage with tougher games is probably better preparation for a QF. However, Scotland are a decent threat these days. If Ireland were to lose to SA, the Scotland game then becomes a big banana skin.

Other than that scenario, there isn't an obvious advantage to coming first or second in either pool A or B. The QF will be almost equally hard either way and a bit like SA in 2019, I can easily see a runner up from A or B making the final.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

For your information; Since and including 1999 the all blacks have only been given a greater than 50% Probability by the bookies once - in 2007. I don't know about before 1999.

I'd be interested to see those, whilst not quite 50% I'd be surprised if they weren't getting "Tiger Woods v the Field" type odds.

Yes and no. I think finishing the pool stage with tougher games is probably better preparation for a QF. However, Scotland are a decent threat these days. If Ireland were to lose to SA, the Scotland game then becomes a big banana skin.

Other than that scenario, there isn't an obvious advantage to coming first or second in either pool A or B. The QF will be almost equally hard either way and a bit like SA in 2019, I can easily see a runner up from A or B making the final.

As the third seeds go I think Italy are the only ones who would be a bigger surprise escaping the group than Scotland.

 

[BPM]

I don't actually expect Scotland to beat Ireland (or SA) but if it's a crunch, winner takes all game to qualify, I think 'banana skin' is a fair description.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

Other than that scenario, there isn't an obvious advantage to coming first or second in either pool A or B. The QF will be almost equally hard either way and a bit like SA in 2019, I can easily see a runner up from A or B making the final.

i actually think coming second is an advantage. Losing always sharpens you. I always said ahead of '07 that there was a reasonable chance the all blacks would lose the quarterfinal. My reasoning was this:

we would be undercooked and be playing second place in by far the toughest pool: a pool with three teams in the top 6 at the time - france, Ireland, and Argentina. Second in that pool would have had the advantage of two tough games and the advantage of having lost one of them. Note too that back then there were 16 teams and no rest week so the pool stage took 3 weeks not 5; that meant whatever the order in which teams played their matches they were more likely, come quarterfinal time, to have recently played tough matches. Nowadays, in terms of how good your draw is, the order of your pool games is very important.

To your other point, I'll take that an adjust my previous statement: Ireland is set up well to win the quarterfinal if they make the quarterfinals. (But especially if they lose one of their games in the process)

 

[BPM]

I agree with the concept that losing can sharpen a team but not 'always'. I think a lot depends on the mentality of the team in question. Ireland need to break their QF hoodoo and while losing to SA in the pool is unlikely to be terminal, it might put a badly-timed seed of doubt in to the players minds. Particularly when you consider the majority of the side have just lost crunch games with Leinster.

I want Ireland to do well, but can't help but think their history of QF exits and the draw aren't helpful.

I also agree that the sequence of games can be important. Having the big games later in the pool schedule probably favours the pool B teams come QF time.

From and England POV, having the big games first up is a bit of a double-edged sword. Given where we're at, we probably would have benefitted from having the lower ranked teams first to build up a bit of momentum. At the same time, if Borthwick can get a couple of decent scalps in the first couple of rounds, it could be the confidence boost we need. Also having a much improved Samoa side in the final game means we'd have a competitive game to sharpen us before the QFs.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

2 months to go.

 

[die_mole]

Australia Fiji Wales is gonna be a great group

 

[Welsh Exile]

Australia Fiji Wales is gonna be a great group

Georgia too.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Japan barely mustered a whimper vs NZ a this morning,
Argentina look worse than they've ever looked,
England are ****

Samoa will be eyeing up a quarter final with their recent injection of converts

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I think Argentina have potential to be decent to be honest, they've had some very good phase play but are the opposite of clinical today.

Today has only strengthened my prediction that the gap to the top 4 is insurmountable for the rest prior to the RWC.

 

[die_mole]

I think Argentina have potential to be decent to be honest, they've had some very good phase play but are the opposite of clinical today.

Today has only strengthened my prediction that the gap to the top 4 is insurmountable for the rest prior to the RWC.

The second half of your comment makes up for your first.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

Georgia too.

Especially if teams play not quite their top teams against them

 

[BPM]

I'm not sure they can afford to be that complacent TBH. It's not that long ago that they beat Wales, so they'd be foolish to take them lightly.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

The second half of your comment makes up for your first.

Probably fair, I just thought that they showed a bit of structure ball in hand, better than the Aussies there from the bits I saw and better than England and Wales in the 6n. Being a great defensive team in International rugby is very very hard, being a good defensive team isn't though. The challenge of taking a side who look like they know how to attack but are completely ill-disicplined and disorganised like Argentina yesterday is easier than what Borthwick or Gatland have to do imo, probably Jones too although I'll give him next week before judging.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Especially if teams play not quite their top teams against them

I don't think we'll risk anything if we can avoid it. Georgia beat us last time out and there's not much difference between our first and 2nd choice in most positions anyway, even in positions we've got good depth in (back row) and positions we're weak in (front 5)

Having said all that, while I have big respect for Georgia and have no doubt the coaching staff and players will be super motivated in that Georgia game, if we beat Fiji in our opening game(big if), then I think we beat Georgia comfortably in the end though it should still be a decent game

Goes without saying that I'll be in no way shocked if they do us again though.

 

[BPM]

I'm really not sure what to expect from any of the teams in pool C TBH.

Australia were crap yesterday but they'll definitely improve between now and the RWC. Even if they have a poor RC, they're playing strong sides in a serious competition which is better than fairly meaningless 'warm up' games.

I don't think Gatland's second stint will be anywhere near as successful as the first, but he'll bring a fit, well prepared side and even if the game plan is limited it will probably see them qualify.

Fiji have a strong squad and could be a genuine threat. I thought that last time out too though so I'm really not sure.

Georgia are motivated and hard to beat. They already know they can beat Wales and if they drag Fiji in to an arm wrestle, they could win that too I reckon.