Tbh it seems like the world rankings paint a descent picture of top 4, I see very few teams able to live with them, if SA are really up for it I am not convinced anyone can live with their physicality. It’s hard to judge Aus as a hole based off that game they were utterly dominated but who knows if EJ is holding back a thing or two (struggling to see them coming close to winning it but confident they will be better then that game), as for Argentina they are a bit like Scotland capable of being brilliant one off games but maintaining it throughout a tournament is unlikely.
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You only really have to maintain for three games. Actually, it's more important that you handle the mental side of things better than your opposition. Three weeks of high anxiety leads to a fatigued and erratic brain.
That's where the likes of the wallabies and england with low expectations may have a massive advantage
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Just from watching the football World Cup I realise just how much has to come together in order for a team to go all the way. Look at how Argentina lost to Saudi Arabia in their first Group game and then from there it seemed to galvanise them to go all the way. Of course it helped having a 30 game odd unbeaten run before the WC behind them.
A little luck with the draw helps as we saw with the Boks last RWC losing to ABs and then becoming the first team to lose in the pool stages and still win after facing Japan and squeaking past Wales and then not believing their luck having to face England.
Really looking forward to the opener France v ABs. Seeing how nervous the French will be and how they react to it. Pressure all on them being their home World Cup. Wouldn’t be surprised if this also ends up being the final.
A little luck with the draw helps as we saw with the Boks last RWC losing to ABs and then becoming the first team to lose in the pool stages and still win after facing Japan and squeaking past Wales and then not believing their luck having to face England.
Really looking forward to the opener France v ABs. Seeing how nervous the French will be and how they react to it. Pressure all on them being their home World Cup. Wouldn’t be surprised if this also ends up being the final.
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What kind of biased BS is that? Sure they didn’t show up in the final, but the Boks would surely have been wary, or at least respectful after England dismantled NZ in the SF.
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Possibly, but people are still only really talking about Australia, Wales and Fiji as contenders.
I don’t think Georgia will qualify, but I think they can make it uncomfortable for the others and pull off a result or two.
It’s also worth considering that they’re enough of a threat to stop the other teams rotating which may impact them come the QFs.
I get where he is coming from, England had a pretty descent lead in all 3 games when touring SA slightly pre WC and ended up losing two of them, they showed a lack of mental fortitude to be able to turn a games momentum, ABs are different in that the scoreline unless huge at the time was rarely a guarantee as they were capable of scoring in very quick succession so rarely down and out, I think many thought England blew their load in the semi final.
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Yes they did beat up our pack, but they didn’t know for certain they were going to do that before the final.
England massively choked but to suggest the Boks were going in to the final thinking they were in for an easy game feels wildly inaccurate to me.
England massively choked but to suggest the Boks were going in to the final thinking they were in for an easy game feels wildly inaccurate to me.
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I further doubt that they took all that much comfort, in advance, from a result 12 years previously, with 1 returning player (Steyn); where the length of a blade of grass made such a huge difference.
I think the bias is looking back in retrospect, what actually did happen always looks more like it was always going to happen.
ETA: For anyone with the time / inclination; here's what was being said at the time: https://www.therugbyforum.com/threads/rwc2019-the-final-england-vs-south-africa-02-11-2019.44957/
I think the bias is looking back in retrospect, what actually did happen always looks more like it was always going to happen.
ETA: For anyone with the time / inclination; here's what was being said at the time: https://www.therugbyforum.com/threads/rwc2019-the-final-england-vs-south-africa-02-11-2019.44957/
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I wouldn’t say Boks thought they were in for an easy game but given a choice between facing ABs or England in the final I am pretty sure they fancied their chances way more v England. It’s a mental thing at that level that can make the difference imo.
They relaxed more knowing they had a better game plan v England IMO than ABs who they’d lost to in the Pool stage and faced and lost to numerous times in the RC.
There’s also the psychological aspect that Boks know they have yet to lose in the knockout stages to a NH side.
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Hmm, not sure we were favourites. I distinctly remember not being favourites in that final and expecting the loss. I think we were more favourites pre the tournament kicked off, but by the time it got to the final England were favourites, especially after their win in the semis. But I don’t think in any way were we looking at this game as an easy one.
Edit: A summary of the sentiment pre the final: https://www.theweek.co.uk/2019-rugb...p-japan-winner-predictions-webb-ellis-cup?amp
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Ah fair enough, I might be getting mixed up with pre-tournamnet and pre-game betting
I remembering predicting SA would win pre-tournament but it not being worth putting a bet on because the odds weren't great, think I was getting that mixed up with pre-final
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Thanks for nothing @Which Tyler. I’ve just read something some idiot wrote in that original thread along the lines of “Mentally I don’t think the ABs game will have taken too much out of us as it wasn’t knife edge”.
That was the adrenaline of the moment, and it didn’t take too long to realise with the benefit of 20-20 hindsight that I was 100% wrong. Even had Itoje not kneed Sinckler in the head, we’d simply played our final the week before and couldn’t replicate that degree of intensity.
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Yep. That’s why I think there’s the potential for an upset in the semi finals.
The QFs from pools A and B will be almost akin to finals in their own right and will undoubtedly come at a physical and mental cost. Whoever qualifies from C and D isn’t going to be as good, but the difficulty of their opponents path to the semis might be a game changer.
The QFs from pools A and B will be almost akin to finals in their own right and will undoubtedly come at a physical and mental cost. Whoever qualifies from C and D isn’t going to be as good, but the difficulty of their opponents path to the semis might be a game changer.
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And @BPM.
Interesting you bring that up. I have been trying to work out how much nerves During The game versus during the week in build ups to games matter. I'm thinking it's more the latter. Easy wins can give you complacency, tough wins may be more nervy but in terms of the total nerve factor probably aren't that significant.
Actually for england last time around, the easy win over the all blacks might have just added more pressure on them during the next week in the lead up to the final due ti high expectations
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I think it's too hard to make generalizations just because there are so few world cups and each team has such different character profiles. I can totally see some locker rooms letting off the gas after a big knockout win against another heavyweight while other just treat it as one step in the ultimate goal.
One thing a former NFL player, Dominique Foxworth, said I thought was great along of the lines of "energy is a finite resource". Essentially you can only scrap your way to wins for so long until talent wins out.
One thing a former NFL player, Dominique Foxworth, said I thought was great along of the lines of "energy is a finite resource". Essentially you can only scrap your way to wins for so long until talent wins out.
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Imagine having to play a quarterfinal against one of the top 4 teams in the world 5 weeks after you played anyone in the top 13 teams. That's france and NZ.
And Ireland, South Africa and potentially Scotland
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No,within that 5 week period: scotland would have played Ireland 1 week from the qf, South Africa would have played Ireland 3 from the qf, And accordingly for Ireland playing two games in that period.
Put that another way: you could say that scotland, Ireland, and South Africa (assuming france and New Zealand both make the quarterfinals and so do two of Ireland, South Africa and scotland) are the only teams that will have previously played a top 5 team less than 5 weeks from having to play a top 5 team in a playoff fixture.
Poor Argentina, if they make the semifinals, would not have played a top 5 opposition in 11 weeks. For England and Wales it would be 9, for Australia 8.
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I kind of like the draw for France and New Zealand. They aren’t going to be concerned about who they play in the quarterfinals as it’s going to be a tough match no matter what. You just need three weeks starting October 14th where everything is absolutely rolling. 2 games you’ll need to be at your best and the semi-final you can be at 80%.
South Africa and Ireland have to worry about Finn Russell and the merry pranksters. They should be good but I could also see Scotland getting a scalp.
South Africa and Ireland have to worry about Finn Russell and the merry pranksters. They should be good but I could also see Scotland getting a scalp.
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My main interest as ever, is whether a Tier 1 will finish 4th in their group and thereby miss auto-qualification for 2027 (which would mean they would have to rub shoulders with Tier2 oppostion more and encourage a proper qualification tournament). With that in mind, and factoring in that I am generally a fan of world ranking scores as an estimate of team strength, this is my take.
Group A - Uruguay finishing ahead of Italy is unlikely. But will Crowley be all that motivated since he has been royally underappreciated by the Italian union and got his retirement coaching job in the Japanese league. Uruguay are 8 points behind Italy in the rankings. The same gap as Scotland and England to the top 4. I'd give them a 5-10% chance of pulling off such a history making result.
Group B - horrible for Tonga and Romania. Both decent sides with decent coaches but they need a miracle to finish 3rd or higher
Group A - Uruguay finishing ahead of Italy is unlikely. But will Crowley be all that motivated since he has been royally underappreciated by the Italian union and got his retirement coaching job in the Japanese league. Uruguay are 8 points behind Italy in the rankings. The same gap as Scotland and England to the top 4. I'd give them a 5-10% chance of pulling off such a history making result.
Group B - horrible for Tonga and Romania. Both decent sides with decent coaches but they need a miracle to finish 3rd or higher
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Group C - the true gift from World Rugby where they may have shot themselves in the foot with the early draw (although Wallabies qualify as hosts for 2027, so its Wales I'll be rooting against most). The top 4 in the group are currently ranked 8-11 in the rankings with just 3.5 ranking points separating them (the same as the gap between Ireland and SA).
However, Fiji lost Vern Cotter earlier this year and both Georgia and Fiji will have had very little exposure to top teams this year. Wales should also be more consistent with Gatland. However, Fiji and Georgia have built excellent depth in their 23s and have some real flair to unlock a defence, so I will be glued to this.
I don't fancy Portugal's chances as despite their backs being superb, their front row is ancient (as is their scrumhalf) and their flyhalf doesn't do it for me personally. Even if Fiji and Georgia bring their A game to the Tier1 matches it'll probably be something infuriating like Wallabies finishing 4th (and autoqualifying) or Portugal then getting a win over Fiji or Georgia. I'd rate the chances of Wales finishing 4th as less than 5% despite World Rugby's best accidental efforts with the draw.
Group D - on paper this is 6th, 7th, 12th and 13th, with just 6 ranking points covering them (same gap as Scotland and England to SA). So upsets should be possible, right? Jamie Joseph is a wizard and Samoa have Leilifano and Sopoaga as their 10s (although the latter still hasn't played due to visa issues). I'm just not remotely smelling an upset here though for matches played in a French autumn rather than humid Japan or somewhere hot. Japan's supply of forwards eligible under residency is drying up/ageing and they've not really had a convincing performance that I can remember since RWC 2019. Plus Joseph has been given the bullet which cannot help his motivation.
England can suffocate these sides at the set piece and Argentina will be more fluent in the backs (and always thrash Japan). If either Tier1 gets a red card though Japan and Samoa should be good enough to make it squeaky bum time. A tragically awful draw for Chile. If they can score 2 tries in the whole tournament they will be doing well.
However, Fiji lost Vern Cotter earlier this year and both Georgia and Fiji will have had very little exposure to top teams this year. Wales should also be more consistent with Gatland. However, Fiji and Georgia have built excellent depth in their 23s and have some real flair to unlock a defence, so I will be glued to this.
I don't fancy Portugal's chances as despite their backs being superb, their front row is ancient (as is their scrumhalf) and their flyhalf doesn't do it for me personally. Even if Fiji and Georgia bring their A game to the Tier1 matches it'll probably be something infuriating like Wallabies finishing 4th (and autoqualifying) or Portugal then getting a win over Fiji or Georgia. I'd rate the chances of Wales finishing 4th as less than 5% despite World Rugby's best accidental efforts with the draw.
Group D - on paper this is 6th, 7th, 12th and 13th, with just 6 ranking points covering them (same gap as Scotland and England to SA). So upsets should be possible, right? Jamie Joseph is a wizard and Samoa have Leilifano and Sopoaga as their 10s (although the latter still hasn't played due to visa issues). I'm just not remotely smelling an upset here though for matches played in a French autumn rather than humid Japan or somewhere hot. Japan's supply of forwards eligible under residency is drying up/ageing and they've not really had a convincing performance that I can remember since RWC 2019. Plus Joseph has been given the bullet which cannot help his motivation.
England can suffocate these sides at the set piece and Argentina will be more fluent in the backs (and always thrash Japan). If either Tier1 gets a red card though Japan and Samoa should be good enough to make it squeaky bum time. A tragically awful draw for Chile. If they can score 2 tries in the whole tournament they will be doing well.
Just a note. You got A and B the wrong way round
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I'm starting to warm to fiji despite then losing cotter and Ryan. I think they are still holding some of the lessons they had learnt from these coaches, as well as mick beirne at the drua, and the various coaches in Europe that these players play for.
Their set piece has been pretty good in their games so far this year, muntz is playing the percentages well, and although their discipline hasn't been great they still have glen jackson as an assistant coach.
That, combined with getting warm up matches against france and england could put them in good stead to take game 1 against wales, after which they might sharpen up as a quarterfinal opportunity becomes more realistic.
That extra sharpness along with good depth should ensure they don't drop a game they are expected to win like they did against Uruguay last time around, although Georgia will be a tough game.
Their set piece has been pretty good in their games so far this year, muntz is playing the percentages well, and although their discipline hasn't been great they still have glen jackson as an assistant coach.
That, combined with getting warm up matches against france and england could put them in good stead to take game 1 against wales, after which they might sharpen up as a quarterfinal opportunity becomes more realistic.
That extra sharpness along with good depth should ensure they don't drop a game they are expected to win like they did against Uruguay last time around, although Georgia will be a tough game.
My general thoughts
Pool A - France and NZ obviously to go through. Gut feeling is France to win that first match. If they play to their maximum, especially at home, i can’t see anyone stopping them - even the ABs will have their work cut out.
Pool B - I think people are writing Scotland off prematurely. I always think they have points in them these days and on their day they could beat South Africa or Ireland. I think depth could kill the Scots but if their key players stay fit who knows. The Springboks to win the group, they just know how to get it done in the World Cup. Ireland to edge Scotland for 2nd.
Pool C - A bit of a shambles this pool but a poor Australia side to win it. Really want to say Fiji will get through and they can beat Wales but I think the Welsh will just do enough. Georgia could throw a curveball in somewhere along the line as well.
Pool D - Japan are not the force they were and they won’t get the same boost as they did last time through the home crowds. England and Argentina will get through but it really depends on what Pumas team turns up in Marseille in game 1. If they play to their best level I would, sadly, tip them to finish ahead of England.
QFs
1 - France to beat Ireland - France with the home advantage are the better team and will have a mental edge with finishing top of their group ahead of NZ.
2 - New Zealand to beat South Africa - The ABs seem to have discovered the template to cut this Springbok blitz defence to pieces. SA will have to go full throttle to win their group and I think NZ would be the fresher of the two sides.
3 - England to beat Australia - Forward dominance will do for Eddie’s boys. England are a limited team but direct rugby has troubled this Aussie team for 4/5 years. Also, if England aren’t good enough to win, then Aus will do it for us with poor discipline/errors.
4 - Argentina to beat Wales - The Pumas are the better team and would be very confident in this match-up. Wales are mediocre.
Semi-Finals
1 - France to beat Argentina - Would the ghosts of 07 haunt the French?. No.
2 - New Zealand to beat England - 2019 revenge, and it would be served very cold.
Final
France to beat New Zealand - Won with an Antoine Dupont/Romain Ntamack special (ala top 14 final) in the 80th minute with the scores level.
Pool A - France and NZ obviously to go through. Gut feeling is France to win that first match. If they play to their maximum, especially at home, i can’t see anyone stopping them - even the ABs will have their work cut out.
Pool B - I think people are writing Scotland off prematurely. I always think they have points in them these days and on their day they could beat South Africa or Ireland. I think depth could kill the Scots but if their key players stay fit who knows. The Springboks to win the group, they just know how to get it done in the World Cup. Ireland to edge Scotland for 2nd.
Pool C - A bit of a shambles this pool but a poor Australia side to win it. Really want to say Fiji will get through and they can beat Wales but I think the Welsh will just do enough. Georgia could throw a curveball in somewhere along the line as well.
Pool D - Japan are not the force they were and they won’t get the same boost as they did last time through the home crowds. England and Argentina will get through but it really depends on what Pumas team turns up in Marseille in game 1. If they play to their best level I would, sadly, tip them to finish ahead of England.
QFs
1 - France to beat Ireland - France with the home advantage are the better team and will have a mental edge with finishing top of their group ahead of NZ.
2 - New Zealand to beat South Africa - The ABs seem to have discovered the template to cut this Springbok blitz defence to pieces. SA will have to go full throttle to win their group and I think NZ would be the fresher of the two sides.
3 - England to beat Australia - Forward dominance will do for Eddie’s boys. England are a limited team but direct rugby has troubled this Aussie team for 4/5 years. Also, if England aren’t good enough to win, then Aus will do it for us with poor discipline/errors.
4 - Argentina to beat Wales - The Pumas are the better team and would be very confident in this match-up. Wales are mediocre.
Semi-Finals
1 - France to beat Argentina - Would the ghosts of 07 haunt the French?. No.
2 - New Zealand to beat England - 2019 revenge, and it would be served very cold.
Final
France to beat New Zealand - Won with an Antoine Dupont/Romain Ntamack special (ala top 14 final) in the 80th minute with the scores level.
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I can see France losing their first pool game v NZ but meeting them in the final and winning. Nerves on the first night but them to grow into the tournament because they will qualify from Pool A. It’ll be typical of the French to do it that way.
