The General RWC 2023 draw discussion thread

[Jimbo]

Tbh it seems like the world rankings paint a descent picture of top 4, I see very few teams able to live with them, if SA are really up for it I am not convinced anyone can live with their physicality. It's hard to judge Aus as a hole based off that game they were utterly dominated but who knows if EJ is holding back a thing or two (struggling to see them coming close to winning it but confident they will be better then that game), as for Argentina they are a bit like Scotland capable of being brilliant one off games but maintaining it throughout a tournament is unlikely.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

Tbh it seems like the world rankings paint a descent picture of top 4, I see very few teams able to live with them, if SA are really up for it I am not convinced anyone can live with their physicality. It's hard to judge Aus as a hole based off that game they were utterly dominated but who knows if EJ is holding back a thing or two (struggling to see them coming close to winning it but confident they will be better then that game), as for Argentina they are a bit like Scotland capable of being brilliant one off games but maintaining it throughout a tournament is unlikely.

You only really have to maintain for three games. Actually, it's more important that you handle the mental side of things better than your opposition. Three weeks of high anxiety leads to a fatigued and erratic brain.

That's where the likes of the wallabies and england with low expectations may have a massive advantage

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Just from watching the football World Cup I realise just how much has to come together in order for a team to go all the way. Look at how Argentina lost to Saudi Arabia in their first Group game and then from there it seemed to galvanise them to go all the way. Of course it helped having a 30 game odd unbeaten run before the WC behind them.

A little luck with the draw helps as we saw with the Boks last RWC losing to ABs and then becoming the first team to lose in the pool stages and still win after facing Japan and squeaking past Wales and then not believing their luck having to face England.

Really looking forward to the opener France v ABs. Seeing how nervous the French will be and how they react to it. Pressure all on them being their home World Cup. Wouldn't be surprised if this also ends up being the final.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

I'm really not sure what to expect from any of the teams in pool C TBH.

Australia were crap yesterday but they'll definitely improve between now and the RWC. Even if they have a poor RC, they're playing strong sides in a serious competition which is better than fairly meaningless 'warm up' games.

I don't think Gatland's second stint will be anywhere near as successful as the first, but he'll bring a fit, well prepared side and even if the game plan is limited it will probably see them qualify.

Fiji have a strong squad and could be a genuine threat. I thought that last time out too though so I'm really not sure.

Georgia are motivated and hard to beat. They already know they can beat Wales and if they drag Fiji in to an arm wrestle, they could win that too I reckon.

You'd have to think Georgia beating wales hasn't really helped their World Cup chances though, as now no one will take them for granted.

 

[BPM]

Just from watching the football World Cup I realise just how much has to come together in order for a team to go all the way. Look at how Argentina lost to Saudi Arabia in their first Group game and then from there it seemed to galvanise them to go all the way. Of course it helped having a 30 game odd unbeaten run before the WC behind them.

A little luck with the draw helps as we saw with the Boks last RWC losing to ABs and then becoming the first team to lose in the pool stages and still win after facing Japan and squeaking past Wales and then not believing their luck having to face England.

Really looking forward to the opener France v ABs. Seeing how nervous the French will be and how they react to it. Pressure all on them being their home World Cup. Wouldn't be surprised if this also ends up being the final.

What kind of biased BS is that? Sure they didn't show up in the final, but the Boks would surely have been wary, or at least respectful after England dismantled NZ in the SF.

 

[BPM]

You'd have to think Georgia beating wales hasn't really helped their World Cup chances though, as now no one will take them for granted.

Possibly, but people are still only really talking about Australia, Wales and Fiji as contenders.

I don't think Georgia will qualify, but I think they can make it uncomfortable for the others and pull off a result or two.

It's also worth considering that they're enough of a threat to stop the other teams rotating which may impact them come the QFs.

 

[Jimbo]

What kind of biased BS is that? Sure they didn't show up in the final, but the Boks would surely have been wary, or at least respectful after England dismantled NZ in the SF.

I get where he is coming from, England had a pretty descent lead in all 3 games when touring SA slightly pre WC and ended up losing two of them, they showed a lack of mental fortitude to be able to turn a games momentum, ABs are different in that the scoreline unless huge at the time was rarely a guarantee as they were capable of scoring in very quick succession so rarely down and out, I think many thought England blew their load in the semi final.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

What kind of biased BS is that?

the fact they smashed England's pack up. Boks also relish playing England in a RWC final as 2007 showed.

I would also add I think they were expecting to meet the ABs in the final. Not England.

 

[BPM]

Yes they did beat up our pack, but they didn't know for certain they were going to do that before the final.

England massively choked but to suggest the Boks were going in to the final thinking they were in for an easy game feels wildly inaccurate to me.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Yes they did beat up our pack, but they didn't know for certain they were going to do that before the final.

England massively choked but to suggest the Boks were going in to the final thinking they were in for an easy game feels wildly inaccurate to me.

Yeah, Boks were the favourites but not by much
After the NZ semi the odds shortened massively, I doubt the Boks watched that game and thought "Yep, **** easy"

 

[Which Tyler]

I further doubt that they took all that much comfort, in advance, from a result 12 years previously, with 1 returning player (Steyn); where the length of a blade of grass made such a huge difference.

I think the bias is looking back in retrospect, what actually did happen always looks more like it was always going to happen.

ETA: For anyone with the time / inclination; here's what was being said at the time: https://www.therugbyforum.com/threads/rwc2019-the-final-england-vs-south-africa-02-11-2019.44957/

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Yes they did beat up our pack, but they didn't know for certain they were going to do that before the final.

England massively choked but to suggest the Boks were going in to the final thinking they were in for an easy game feels wildly inaccurate to me.

I wouldn't say Boks thought they were in for an easy game but given a choice between facing ABs or England in the final I am pretty sure they fancied their chances way more v England. It's a mental thing at that level that can make the difference imo.

They relaxed more knowing they had a better game plan v England IMO than ABs who they'd lost to in the Pool stage and faced and lost to numerous times in the RC.

There's also the psychological aspect that Boks know they have yet to lose in the knockout stages to a NH side.

 

[saulan]

Yeah, Boks were the favourites but not by much
After the NZ semi the odds shortened massively, I doubt the Boks watched that game and thought "Yep, **** easy"

Hmm, not sure we were favourites. I distinctly remember not being favourites in that final and expecting the loss. I think we were more favourites pre the tournament kicked off, but by the time it got to the final England were favourites, especially after their win in the semis. But I don't think in any way were we looking at this game as an easy one.

Edit: A summary of the sentiment pre the final: https://www.theweek.co.uk/2019-rugb...p-japan-winner-predictions-webb-ellis-cup?amp

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Hmm, not sure we were favourites. I distinctly remember not being favourites in that final and expecting the loss. I think we were more favourites pre the tournament kicked off, but by the time it got to the final England were favourites, especially after their win in the semis. But I don't think in any way were we looking at this game as an easy one.

Edit: A summary of the sentiment pre the final: https://www.theweek.co.uk/2019-rugb...p-japan-winner-predictions-webb-ellis-cup?amp

Ah fair enough, I might be getting mixed up with pre-tournamnet and pre-game betting
I remembering predicting SA would win pre-tournament but it not being worth putting a bet on because the odds weren't great, think I was getting that mixed up with pre-final

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

I further doubt that they took all that much comfort, in advance, from a result 12 years previously, with 1 returning player (Steyn); where the length of a blade of grass made such a huge difference.

I think the bias is looking back in retrospect, what actually did happen always looks more like it was always going to happen.

ETA: For anyone with the time / inclination; here's what was being said at the time: https://www.therugbyforum.com/threads/rwc2019-the-final-england-vs-south-africa-02-11-2019.44957/

Thanks for nothing @Which Tyler. I've just read something some idiot wrote in that original thread along the lines of "Mentally I don't think the ABs game will have taken too much out of us as it wasn't knife edge".

That was the adrenaline of the moment, and it didn't take too long to realise with the benefit of 20-20 hindsight that I was 100% wrong. Even had Itoje not kneed Sinckler in the head, we'd simply played our final the week before and couldn't replicate that degree of intensity.

 

[BPM]

Yep. That's why I think there's the potential for an upset in the semi finals.

The QFs from pools A and B will be almost akin to finals in their own right and will undoubtedly come at a physical and mental cost. Whoever qualifies from C and D isn't going to be as good, but the difficulty of their opponents path to the semis might be a game changer.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

Thanks for nothing @Which Tyler. I've just read something some idiot wrote in that original thread along the lines of "Mentally I don't think the ABs game will have taken too much out of us as it wasn't knife edge".

That was the adrenaline of the moment, and it didn't take too long to realise with the benefit of 20-20 hindsight that I was 100% wrong. Even had Itoje not kneed Sinckler in the head, we'd simply played our final the week before and couldn't replicate that degree of intensity.

And @BPM.
Interesting you bring that up. I have been trying to work out how much nerves During The game versus during the week in build ups to games matter. I'm thinking it's more the latter. Easy wins can give you complacency, tough wins may be more nervy but in terms of the total nerve factor probably aren't that significant.

Actually for england last time around, the easy win over the all blacks might have just added more pressure on them during the next week in the lead up to the final due ti high expectations

 

[die_mole]

I think it's too hard to make generalizations just because there are so few world cups and each team has such different character profiles. I can totally see some locker rooms letting off the gas after a big knockout win against another heavyweight while other just treat it as one step in the ultimate goal.

One thing a former NFL player, Dominique Foxworth, said I thought was great along of the lines of "energy is a finite resource". Essentially you can only scrap your way to wins for so long until talent wins out.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Rugby World Cup warm-up matches to use shot clock and card review system

The shot clock is intended to speed up conversions and penalty kicks, while Hawk-Eye technology and body cameras for referees are also in place

www.theguardian.com

 

[Umaga's Witness]

Imagine having to play a quarterfinal against one of the top 4 teams in the world 5 weeks after you played anyone in the top 13 teams. That's france and NZ.