Who could claim an upset win?

[RichardRheeder]

With the minnow nations having really improved their standard of play the last two world cups, some of them giving the big boys a huge fright along the way; which matchup in this year's Rugby World Cup group stages do you think has the best chance of producing an upset result this time around?

 

[Wendigo7]

Georgia beating Argentina and Tonga is very conceivable

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Fiji beating Wales IMO could happen.

Ermmm

Japan V Scotland (depending on which Scotland turns up)

Samoa V SA could be interesting.

Canada V Italy

If an upset were to happen would go with these.

 

[ncurd]

As I've said before Wales Vs Fiji is one I have earmarked as most likely upset to happen conceivably they are a potential banana skin for anyone in the group though. The nature of the schedule says Wales are the most likely to fall foul and will likely be the game they are targeting the most (beyond trying to give England a bloody nose in the opener).

It has double whammy though if and it's a big if Wales do loose that game and they loose against Australia and England they'll likely be 4th and don't automatically qualify for 2019.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I think Fiji turning over one of the big boys would be the most likely 'big' upset. I mean, I can see Samoa tipping over SA on a good day or Scotland, France or Argentina going down to a 'smaller' team but I just think the games in pool A are so tight between the big three in there that they'll probably rest key players vs Fiji.. that could turn ugly for them as Fiji have it in them to win from nowhere even if a 2nd string Aus/Eng/Wales pack should still dominate proceedings.

 

[Cavemeister]

I think possible banana skins could be :

USA beating Scotland
Japan beating Scotland
Canada beating Italy
Romania beating Italy

I do not see Samoa beating SA as a banana skin as they are well capable of beating them.

The ULTIMATE banana skin of the tournament will be :

Argentina beating New Zealand

 

[Raggs]

Fiji beating Wales looks to be the most likely, with Fiji beating England close behind. I think England will stand firm in the opener, against Wales it may depend on just how much the Eng Vs Wal game has taken out of them.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

I can't see England losing to Fiji tbh Wales I think are more vulnerable to playing an open game against them and playing into Fijian hands where as England will prob just play to beast them up front and grind away at them.

 

[Jbobo]

I could see Samoa turning over SA, but it is still unlikely. Easily the best Pacific islands team.

I can't see Fiji winning against any of the bigger three teams, but I think if Fiji can compete in the forwards, they could conceivably challenge Australia as I think they have the weaker of the big there's packs, if Fiji throw it about and are very accurate, they could conceivably challenge Wales, as of the big three they have a bigger chance of being caught on the counter arguably with the most flat defense. And if Fiji manage to keep England out of their try line and are accurate in their attacks and limit their unforced mistakes, they could conceivably challenge England, as they have the less dangerous back line of the big three.

In my opinion, before the English jump me.

Still has to be said, if as many predict is the most likely (vehemently disagree) Wales lose to Fiji, It would be the biggest upset id ever have seen. Wales are being underestimated and the effect of playing England before overstated. I think people are still comparing this welsh team to re one in 2007. The current team is lightyears ahead on all facets, not least skill. On the big stage, they will thrive similarily to 2011. I love Fiji, but I expect Wales to win by at least 30. Maybe even more if Fiji don't play well like 4 years ago.

We shall see

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

IMO Wales have been overrated the last few years rather than underrated now.

Fiji only recently nearly beat Wales so who knows.

IMO If Wales put 2nd choice players in key areas they could well struggle esp if Bigger didn't start @ 10.

 

[Raggs]

Not sure I'd agree that England have the least dangerous backline. Only need to look at the try-scorers in the 6N, 15 tries scored by the English backs, 11 by the Welsh.

 

[ncurd]

Not sure I'd agree that England have the least dangerous backline. Only need to look at the try-scorers in the 6N, 15 tries scored by the English backs, 11 by the Welsh.

I'd agree if the game plan was to play Farrell @10 AND a making a completely dolali decision and drop Joseph.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Not sure I'd agree that England have the least dangerous backline. Only need to look at the try-scorers in the 6N, 15 tries scored by the English backs, 11 by the Welsh.

England like SA will always be called dull in the back despite what the numbers say. We should choose to see it as a complement to our packs in general rather than a slight to our backs but it does indeed get old.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

I don't believe Wales will lose to Fiji, but suggesting it could happen isn't about underrating Wales - it's based on a recent precedent of Wales going missing against Tier 2/3 sides who they are expected to beat. With regards to Fiji, each of the last 6 games have been exceptionally close aside from the 2011 RWC thrashing. There's a fairly similar story with Wales and Samoa, and obviously, there was the 2012 game..

 

[RedruthRFC]

Georgia beating Argentina and Tonga is very conceivable

Would the (current) world number 14 beating the world number 12 count as much of an upset? On that basis, it would be about on a par with Wales or Australia beating England, Scotland beating Samoa or Romania beating Canada. Italy's uber-losing streak has pushed them down to 15 in the world, a loss for them against Romania or Canada would fall into the category of against the odds, but not a massive upset for me.

As I said in another similar thread, given the horrible schedule that Fiji have playing against the two home nations on weird and wonderful dates I don't give Fiji that great a chance, although the point about the tier one nations being likely to rest players against them is a valid one.

The only other possibilities of a genuine upset to me are Scotland getting rolled over by Japan / USA or France losing to Italy. I think the Scots will have too much know how for the teams below them, meaning that the best chance of an upset for me is Italy turning France over in their opener at Twickenham, not that I'm saying it will happen given Italy's form, but they do at least have plenty of experience of playing on that kind of stage and could easily catch a curate's egg of a French side on the hop.

 

[goodNumber10]

And if Fiji manage to keep England out of their try line and are accurate in their attacks and limit their unforced mistakes, they could conceivably challenge England, as they have the less dangerous back line of the big three.

This is pretty rough but;
Top 10 try scorers in the 2015 6Nations:

6 englishmen - 5 backs 1 forward (total of 16 tries)
3 welsh men - all backs (8 tries)
2 italians - both backs (2 tries)
1 Scotsman - Back (2 Tries)
1 Irish man - forward (2 Tries)

Top 10 Try Scorers in the 2014 6Nations:
3 Englishman - all backs (8 tries)
3 irishmen - all backs (8 Tries)
2 Welshmen - all backs (5 Tries)
2 Italians - both backs (4 Tries)
1 Scotsman - Back (2 Tries)
1 Frenchman - Back (3 tries)

by that reckoning the least dangerous backline has topped the top 10 tries scored by backs stats for the last two years.... with 22 (england) - 16(wales) - 8 (ireland)

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I don't believe Wales will lose to Fiji, but suggesting it could happen isn't about underrating Wales - it's based on a recent precedent of Wales going missing against Tier 2/3 sides who they are expected to beat. With regards to Fiji, each of the last 6 games have been exceptionally close aside from the 2011 RWC thrashing. There's a fairly similar story with Wales and Samoa, and obviously, there was the 2012 game..

This, it would be a big upset and i'd be very surprised if they lost, but they have a history of not showing up for these games - in both the WC and the AI's.

 

[Every Time Ref]

England like SA will always be called dull in the back despite what the numbers say. We should choose to see it as a complement to our packs in general rather than a slight to our backs but it does indeed get old.

Amen to that, brother.

Feels weird having another nation's rugby fans sticking up for us.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I really can't see Wales losing.
Their quick turnaround will test their depth, but where that will hit them most is the front row: not somewhere Fiji will be battering them.

 

[psychic duck]

I really can't see Wales losing.
Their quick turnaround will test their depth, but where that will hit them most is the front row: not somewhere Fiji will be battering them.

I don't think Fiji will win either, but I do think they shouldn't be underestimated by Wales and could give a really tough game, as Gatlandball really hasn't been at its most effective against the Pacific Islands who can stand up to the likes of Roberts in bosh ball midfield collisions. Fiji weren't that far off with 14 men last November. That 2011 game is an irrelevance by the way, Fiji threw the towel in after getting knocked out and picked a second string.

 

[Jbobo]

This is pretty rough but;
Top 10 try scorers in the 2015 6Nations:

6 englishmen - 5 backs 1 forward (total of 16 tries)
3 welsh men - all backs (8 tries)
2 italians - both backs (2 tries)
1 Scotsman - Back (2 Tries)
1 Irish man - forward (2 Tries)

Top 10 Try Scorers in the 2014 6Nations:
3 Englishman - all backs (8 tries)
3 irishmen - all backs (8 Tries)
2 Welshmen - all backs (5 Tries)
2 Italians - both backs (4 Tries)
1 Scotsman - Back (2 Tries)
1 Frenchman - Back (3 tries)

by that reckoning the least dangerous backline has topped the top 10 tries scored by backs stats for the last two years.... with 22 (england) - 16(wales) - 8 (ireland)

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This, it would be a big upset and i'd be very surprised if they lost, but they have a history of not showing up for these games - in both the WC and the AI's.

Stats are pretty useless considering that most of England's tries are due to forward domination. I believe Australia and Wales have more devastating runners and have proven more so than England the ability to counter and score from their own half, this doesn't mean England can't do it, of course they can. I just believe that Aus and Wales are better at it.

On this subject of upsets, would it be fair to note that England have a pretty poor record of bottling it in the big matches? They have not won a Slam or even 6N ***le in 5 years, even though they have been until Ireland, the highest ranked team in the NH for the last 3 or so. The year they did (2011) they performed quite poorly in the WC. Is there not a significant chance that if Fiji play very well that England may find the challenge in their own World Cup, with all the pressure that this brings, a little too much on the day? I mean, 2013 anyone? Don't tell me this isn't significant or relevant, as it is just as or more relevant than the Fiji-Wales argument.

As i set out above, neither Wales, Aus or England can afford to take Fiji lightly. I am absolutely certain they will not. Points difference is almost a given for at least 2 of these teams. (i suspect all three).