A Political Thread pt. 2

[TRF_Olyy]

It's harder as the war goes on for invading forces traditionally, especially with the economic sanctions in place.

Europe/NATO have a vested interest in keeping Ukraine fed, watered and fully stocked, as well
If the people fighting don't lose hope in their cause then they won't be short on supplies anytime soon, whereas there's plenty of reports of Russian vehicles running out of diesel and having to be abandoned, soldiers begging for food and water from locals because rations have run out etc.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I don't think anyone believes Ukraine can win in a straight fight. It's whether Russia can hold onto Ukraine and govern it peacefully.

Why Vladimir Putin has already lost this war | Yuval Noah Harari

The Russians may yet conquer Ukraine. But Ukrainians have shown that they will not let them hold it, says historian and author Yuval Noah Harari

www.theguardian.com

I think that is the point this historian is making. The majority of Ukrainians will not want to live peacefully under any regime imposed on them by Putin,

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Ukraine crisis: Fifa and Uefa suspend all Russian clubs and national teams

Russian football clubs and national teams have been suspended from all competitions by Fifa and Uefa after the country's invasion of Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

About bloody time.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Seen a video doing the rounds of a young Russian soldier sobbing as Ukrainian civilians berate him. Cannot confirm how true these are but must remember that a large chunk of the Russian army is made up of conscripted 17 and 18 year olds, a large chunk I imagine have no desire to be in Ukraine or even in the army. Russia may have much larger numbers on paper but it's a question of how many are professionals and how many are conscripts. Ultimately the Russian army has enough manpower and material to win the conventional war but their slower than expected progress may be due to the large contingent of young conscripts who don't want to be there.

The Ukrainian irregulars, whilst completely untrained, are likely to have more resolve to fight.

Depending on what information they get, I'm sure many Russian citizens don't like the idea of being the evil guy on the world stage after years of being told they are actually the good guys.

 

[General Melchett]

Ukraine crisis: Fifa and Uefa suspend all Russian clubs and national teams

Russian football clubs and national teams have been suspended from all competitions by Fifa and Uefa after the country's invasion of Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

About bloody time.

The headlines in Russian media will be "Western countries bully FIFA into unjust ban of Russian teams"

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Seen a video doing the rounds of a young Russian soldier sobbing as Ukrainian civilians berate him. Cannot confirm how true these are but must remember that a large chunk of the Russian army is made up of conscripted 17 and 18 year olds, a large chunk I imagine have no desire to be in Ukraine or even in the army. Russia may have much larger numbers on paper but it's a question of how many are professionals and how many are conscripts. Ultimately the Russian army has enough manpower and material to win the conventional war but their slower than expected progress may be due to the large contingent of young conscripts who don't want to be there.

The Ukrainian irregulars, whilst completely untrained, are likely to have more resolve to fight.

Depending on what information they get, I'm sure many Russian citizens don't like the idea of being the evil guy on the world stage after years of being told they are actually the good guys.

Some pretty brutal texts from a Ukrainian soldier to his mum were read out at the UN. No way of knowing it was real obvs but I'd assume it is.

Gut wrenching

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Seen a video doing the rounds of a young Russian soldier sobbing as Ukrainian civilians berate him. Cannot confirm how true these are but must remember that a large chunk of the Russian army is made up of conscripted 17 and 18 year olds, a large chunk I imagine have no desire to be in Ukraine or even in the army. Russia may have much larger numbers on paper but it's a question of how many are professionals and how many are conscripts. Ultimately the Russian army has enough manpower and material to win the conventional war but their slower than expected progress may be due to the large contingent of young conscripts who don't want to be there.

The Ukrainian irregulars, whilst completely untrained, are likely to have more resolve to fight.

Depending on what information they get, I'm sure many Russian citizens don't like the idea of being the evil guy on the world stage after years of being told they are actually the good guys.

Saw this earlier, phone taken off of a dead Russian soldier:

Mom: Lesha, why are you taking so long to answer, are you actually at military training?

Lesha: I’m not in Crimea anymore mom and not at training

Mom: Where?? Dad is asking can we send you a package

Lesha: which package mom I just want to hang myself (not literally, a common expression that means I feel like ****)

Mom: what are you talking about? What happened??

Lesha: mom I’m in Ukraine. There is an actual war. I’m scared, we are shooting everyone, even the peaceful. Everyone. They told us they are gonna welcome us but they are throwing themselves under the tanks and not letting us pass. They call us fascists. Mom it’s really hard

 

[Which Tyler]

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Definitely. And it’s become even more clearer that ultimately Putin’s Russia were behind:
Salisbury, MH17, Sochi, no doubt helping Trump get into office and contributing to Brexit. He was hiding in plain sight all along and the West appeased him, including the UK, FIFA to helped give the World Cup in Russia. Hitler’s antics but in the modern age.

Ukraine help: What can people in the UK do?

Aid charities are working in Ukraine while grassroots groups are ready to support refugees.

www.bbc.co.uk

Ukraine invasion: Russians feel the pain of international sanctions

Russians are starting to feel the effect of sanctions aimed at punishing the country for invading Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Russia seem to be ramping up the East how and it looks like they are far more willing to inflict collateral damage. Pootin is likely to get his goals militarily but this could be a massive blunder in the long term. He's going to have to occupy a country that really don't want the Russians there

 

[ncurd]

Russia seem to be ramping up the East how and it looks like they are far more willing to inflict collateral damage. Pootin is likely to get his goals militarily but this could be a massive blunder in the long term. He's going to have to occupy a country that really don't want the Russians there

Whilst completely isolating his nation economically. It certainly feels he'll take Ukraine although a lot harder than he probably invisioned but he'll deal with constant mess.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Whilst completely isolating his nation economically. It certainly feels he'll take Ukraine although a lot harder than he probably invisioned but he'll deal with constant mess.

And isolating is putting it very mildly. Their economy is very likely to completely implode. Their economy wasn’t exactly super strong prior to all this. How’s he even going to keep Russia functioning let alone fund a multi billion dollar war machine? It’s not really in their interests to take Ukraine anymore.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Definitely. And it’s become even more clearer that ultimately Putin’s Russia were behind:
Salisbury, MH17, Sochi, no doubt helping Trump get into office and contributing to Brexit. He was hiding in plain sight all along and the West appeased him, including the UK, FIFA to helped give the World Cup in Russia. Hitler’s antics but in the modern age.

Ukraine help: What can people in the UK do?

Aid charities are working in Ukraine while grassroots groups are ready to support refugees.

www.bbc.co.uk

Ukraine invasion: Russians feel the pain of international sanctions

Russians are starting to feel the effect of sanctions aimed at punishing the country for invading Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

And Banks. You couldn’t make up our involvement with the Russians for the last 8 years or so. I’m glad the action the west has taken now but we, and more profoundly the Ukrainians, are really suffering the consequences of our actions over the last few years from Brexit to Trump to suppressing the report into Russian interference etc etc.

 

[General Melchett]

And isolating is putting it very mildly. Their economy is very likely to completely implode. Their economy wasn’t exactly super strong prior to all this. How’s he even going to keep Russia functioning let alone fund a multi billion dollar war machine? It’s not really in their interests to take Ukraine anymore.

Some media reports were claiming that China will be their economic insurance policy (they will keep buying their oil, gas etc) but surely China has them by the balls now that the rest of the world won't touch them with a bargepole. I also wonder what China thinks about having a crack at Taiwan now it has seen the world's reaction.

With the airspace bans, sanctions and security risks it's hard to imagine Russian politicians being able to travel overseas again apart from say Belarus.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Some media reports were claiming that China will be their economic insurance policy (they will keep buying their oil, gas etc) but surely China has them by the balls now that the rest of the world won't touch them with a bargepole. I also wonder what China thinks about having a crack at Taiwan now it has seen the world's reaction.

With the airspace bans, sanctions and security risks it's hard to imagine Russian politicians being able to travel overseas again apart from say Belarus.

I’m not sure that will be enough economically tbh. Having said that I can barely add up and don’t know my times tables so wtf do I know.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Isn’t Russia’s trade deal with China worth $140 billion? Not Sure if that is total or annually.

 

[General Melchett]

Isn’t Russia’s trade deal with China worth $140 billion? Not Sure if that is total or annually.

Not sure. I know that Russia doesn't really export much other than vodka/caviar and that oil/gas is it's main source of income. China on the other hand manufactures a lot more.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Just don’t see a way out for Russia other than a dead, or removed, Putin. Even if Sanctions were lifted today confidence in Russia whether that be investment/economic, political or anything else is almost beyond repair and will take many many years to get back to where they were.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Based James Cleverly

 

[ncurd]

That might be the most sensible thing I've ever seen him tweet/say must of been an aide.