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The General RWC 2023 draw discussion thread

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I expect England to win our group and face Wales in the quarters. If so, we make the semis. If we play Australia then we’re going home, but I think the semifinalists from our side of the draw will be England and Australia.

The other side of the draw is harder to call. NZ might just take advantage of first night French nerves and end up winning that group. In Pool B I’m not sure that Ireland will wear a favourite’s tag brilliantly, whereas the Springboks have proven World Cup pedigree, so on neutral territory the Boks might just edge that group.

So I’m going:

QFs:

3 England to beat Wales

1 Australia to beat Argentina

4 New Zealand against Ireland will be a tough call. The head and heart both insist Ireland, yet I have a sneaky feeling that the All Blacks might just pull something out of the bag. And there’s also the whole QF thing for Ire to put out of their heads.

2 I am backing France to have found their stride by the time they face the Boks. But you can never discount the Boks and a win for them wouldn’t be a total shock.

SF:

1 France to beat Australia easily enough.

2 ABs to exact 2019 revenge on England, also with a bit to spare.

Final:

Another 2011 nervy job. I’d like to think France but if the ABs don’t let them get out of sight, nerves will kick in. I really didn’t think I’d be saying this, but NZ to win, probably courtesy of a Wayne Barnes decision that sees him afraid to set foot in France ever again, while giving him the freedom of Rotorua.

You heard it here first!
 
Wales getting properly written off, with both Fiji and now Gerogia preferred by some. I think that's fair enough given recent results and retirements/injuries though.

Puts us in a great position though. We'll be going in with a very young/inexperienced pack (Faletau aside), but one which could shock many. Feels a little 2011 again, but that might be wishful thinking!
 
Exciting RWC. Feel like France are favourites but only have at most a ~30% chance of winning, feel like NZ have been at 50% or better since 2007 and England clear favourites in 03.

At risk of displaying horrendous maths, I'd have Ireland and NZ around as likely as each other to win at about 20% with SA slightly behind but somewhere in the 15%-20% range. Oz and Eng to split the leftover 10% and everyone else will be looking for upsets here and there but won't have a final say.

With every team more likely to lose the cup than win, we should be in for a treat. Can't wait.
 
A/b is exciting drama while c/d is messy drama.

I don’t want wales to screw it up but the camp is falling apart. If Australia were to lose to Fiji or Georgia it’d be up there with my best sporting memories.

A and B will result in two very strong sides going home early and I’d bet on Ireland and New Zealand being those teams right now.
 
dullonien said:
Wales getting properly written off, with both Fiji and now Gerogia preferred by some.
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Much as that would be highly entertaining to me as an Englishman, I’d still be amazed if Wales don’t get out of the group.

Seeing your AWJ and Owensless scrum splintered by the Georgians could be a tournament high though 😀.
 
I think most premiership club sides would best Japan so there is zero chance of England losing to them.

Although I think recently some club sides would probably beat England.
 
Jimbo said:
Tbf 2015 pretty much trumps any WC low imaginable.
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Maybe. Context is important here. 2015 was most disappointing because it was at home. Had it been overseas, an average England team coming third to two good sides who ended up as finalists and semi finalists wouldn't have been anywhere near as embarrassing.

Losing to Argentina and Japan and going out in the group stage would be considerably worse IMO.

The sequence of the games could be a blessing or a curse for England. Having the hardest games (on paper) means there’s no chance to build momentum going in to them, but winning them would be an immediate momentum creator that also allows for rotation in the later group games.

Rankings aside, Argentina are probably a better side and definitely a more settled side than Borthwick's England and I think there's every chance they could win that first game. OTOH, no-one really knows what to expect from England right now. If Borthwick gets the camp and the squad selection right, we could surprise Argentina. I think Japan are a bit overrated based upon a home performance in 2019. A lot of their better players than are no longer available or past their best. I wouldn’t dismiss them as a threat, but I think England should beat them.

The optimist in me says we win the group. The realist says we qualify in second. It’s definitely possible we crash out but I don’t think it will happen.
 
BPM said:
Maybe. Context is important here. 2015 was most disappointing because it was at home. Had it been overseas, an average England team coming third to two good sides who ended up as finalists and semi finalists wouldn't have been anywhere near as embarrassing.

Losing to Argentina and Japan and going out in the group stage would be considerably worse IMO.

The sequence of the games could be a blessing or a curse for England. Having the hardest games (on paper) means there’s no chance to build momentum going in to them, but winning them would be an immediate momentum creator that also allows for rotation in the later group games.

Rankings aside, Argentina are probably a better side and definitely a more settled side than Borthwick's England and I think there's every chance they could win that first game. OTOH, no-one really knows what to expect from England right now. If Borthwick gets the camp and the squad selection right, we could surprise Argentina. I think Japan are a bit overrated based upon a home performance in 2019. A lot of their better players than are no longer available or past their best. I wouldn’t dismiss them as a threat, but I think England should beat them.

The optimist in me says we win the group. The realist says we qualify in second. It’s definitely possible we crash out but I don’t think it will happen.
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Very much depends on your perspective, Wales fans will constantly remind us of being heavy contributors to making England the only nation to not make it out of the knockout stages in their own WC.

Arg beat England at twickers last time out, I don’t think there is much to separate them, I agree Japan on paper should not have enough to beat England on neutral ground.
Unless somehow a solid amount of cohesion happens between now and knocks out stages it’s hard to see England lining up against the top nations as anything but training, whilst I like a lot of Bothers selection there is still some pretty uninspiring ones, I still don’t understand how Spencer has not got more opportunity or him being sent back after making initial camp, clearly it’s a position where very few have any descent quantity of caps, he does however have vast experience competing at top club levels which is the next best thing.
 
I disagree a bit on Spencer. I do rate him, but on paper, he has exactly the style of play Eddie or Borthwick would have wanted from their 9 yet neither quite fancied him. I have to wonder why? Also worth pointing out that he was second choice for the majority of his time at Saracens too, so I’m not sure how vast his experience is at the highest levels of the club game. I mean, he was there, but he wasn’t a truly key player in the same way his Saracens contemporaries were. It basically suggests he’s good, but not quite good enough IMO.

Re. England ‘lining up against the top nations’, I do agree. However, this is where the draw and the sequence of games comes into play. If England beat Argentina and Japan, we have a good chance to hit our stride across the remaining games and then a likely QF with opponents who are good, but not top opponents. Win a QF and then we face off with a top team who has just come out on the right side of a brutal game. The comparison I’d make is that England essentially played their final in the semis last time round and were spent for the final. This time round, any of the QFs on the other side of the draw are the equivalent level of a final. England’s best chance is that whoever succeeds in making it through the QFs is really counting the cost in the SF.

England could be crap, or we could make the final. Either feels quite likely!
 
Old Hooker said:
I expect England to win our group and face Wales in the quarters. If so, we make the semis. If we play Australia then we’re going home, but I think the semifinalists from our side of the draw will be England and Australia.

The other side of the draw is harder to call. NZ might just take advantage of first night French nerves and end up winning that group. In Pool B I’m not sure that Ireland will wear a favourite’s tag brilliantly, whereas the Springboks have proven World Cup pedigree, so on neutral territory the Boks might just edge that group.

So I’m going:

QFs:

3 England to beat Wales

1 Australia to beat Argentina

4 New Zealand against Ireland will be a tough call. The head and heart both insist Ireland, yet I have a sneaky feeling that the All Blacks might just pull something out of the bag. And there’s also the whole QF thing for Ire to put out of their heads.

2 I am backing France to have found their stride by the time they face the Boks. But you can never discount the Boks and a win for them wouldn’t be a total shock.

SF:

1 France to beat Australia easily enough.

2 ABs to exact 2019 revenge on England, also with a bit to spare.

Final:

Another 2011 nervy job. I’d like to think France but if the ABs don’t let them get out of sight, nerves will kick in. I really didn’t think I’d be saying this, but NZ to win, probably courtesy of a Wayne Barnes decision that sees him afraid to set foot in France ever again, while giving him the freedom of Rotorua.

You heard it here first!
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You’re probably right but what would be your thoughts on a England V Fiji qtr final?

To be honest, as **** as we are England aren’t much better so if we do face you in the qtr final I think it’s far from certain that you win that game. I’d have you as favourites but I’d imagine it would be a relatively close game.
 
dullonien said:
Wales getting properly written off, with both Fiji and now Gerogia preferred by some. I think that's fair enough given recent results and retirements/injuries though.

Puts us in a great position though. We'll be going in with a very young/inexperienced pack (Faletau aside), but one which could shock many. Feels a little 2011 again, but that might be wishful thinking!
Click to expand...
Being totally written off is about the best thing we have going for us at this WC. They’ll be a bit of an unknown quantity about us as well. I’m really torn between facing the reality of being way off where we need to be and therefore not thinking we’ll get out the group and also believing in a lot of the payers we still have and also recognising we’re on the easy side of the draw. The potential of facing Argentina and a way below par England in a qtr final is mouth watering really and we should be looking to get to a semi regardless of recent form.
 
Welsh Exile said:
You’re probably right but what would be your thoughts on a England V Fiji qtr final?

To be honest, as **** as we are England aren’t much better so if we do face you in the qtr final I think it’s far from certain that you win that game. I’d have you as favourites but I’d imagine it would be a relatively close game.
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To be fair, I think with Borthwick being new and Gatland yet to play a game in his second stint, both teams are fairly unknown quantities. What we’ve seen recently hopefully won’t be what we see come the RWC.

As I see it, England currently have the better players and more experience on the park, whereas Wales have way more experience from a coaching POV. Gatland has a good record at RWCs and arguably had Wales over-performing for the majority of his tenure. Borthwick has very little experience to draw upon as a head coach.

A one-off knock out game, it really could go either way and I’d prefer to avoid Wales if possible.

The big questions for me are 1) can Borthwick raise England’s performance levels and get the team playing to the sum of its parts? 2) How much of Wales’ previous success was down to Gatland/is he anywhere near as good without Edwards next to him? 3) Will either team even qualify for the QFs?
 
Welsh Exile said:
Being totally written off is about the best thing we have going for us at this WC. They’ll be a bit of an unknown quantity about us as well. I’m really torn between facing the reality of being way off where we need to be and therefore not thinking we’ll get out the group and also believing in a lot of the payers we still have and also recognising we’re on the easy side of the draw. The potential of facing Argentina and a way below par England in a qtr final is mouth watering really and we should be looking to get to a semi regardless of recent form.
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I agree, but I think the same pretty much applies to England. The only reason we’re even being looked at as a dark horse is the relative ease of our pool.
 
BPM said:
To be fair, I think with Borthwick being new and Gatland yet to play a game in his second stint, both teams are fairly unknown quantities. What we’ve seen recently hopefully won’t be what we see come the RWC.

As I see it, England currently have the better players and more experience on the park, whereas Wales have way more experience from a coaching POV. Gatland has a good record at RWCs and arguably had Wales over-performing for the majority of his tenure. Borthwick has very little experience to draw upon as a head coach.

A one-off knock out game, it really could go either way and I’d prefer to avoid Wales if possible.

The big questions for me are 1) can Borthwick raise England’s performance levels and get the team playing to the sum of its parts? 2) How much of Wales’ previous success was down to Gatland/is he anywhere near as good without Edwards next to him? 3) Will either team even qualify for the QFs?
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I agree with much of this but what do Englands parts actually add up to? at some point we probably need to consider we have a lot of pretty solid players to pick between but very few if any which you could even make an argument for being anywhere near a world 15, maybe it’s just where we are, hopefully there are a few young gems to be unearthed but when you look at the top 4 or so sides they all have a few.
 
Welsh Exile said:
You’re probably right but what would be your thoughts on a England V Fiji qtr final?

To be honest, as **** as we are England aren’t much better so if we do face you in the qtr final I think it’s far from certain that you win that game. I’d have you as favourites but I’d imagine it would be a relatively close game.
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The organisation (in theory), resources and time spent together should make Eng favourites, but I’d be watching from behind the sofa.

No, we’re not much better, but I do think we have a better group of players if only the coaches could get a bloody tune out of them. Jones had, but lost, the dressing room and I don’t think Borthwick will even prise the door open. My only glimmer of light is 07 where the players effectively deposed Ashton mid tournament, but I don’t think our current dressing room has that degree of spine or free thinking.

But if we *knew* what was going to happen we wouldn’t watch sport. It could be Arise Sir Warren of Gatlandshire for all I know.
 
Old Hooker said:
The organisation (in theory), resources and time spent together should make Eng favourites, but I’d be watching from behind the sofa.

No, we’re not much better, but I do think we have a better group of players if only the coaches could get a bloody tune out of them. Jones had, but lost, the dressing room and I don’t think Borthwick will even prise the door open. My only glimmer of light is 07 where the players effectively deposed Ashton mid tournament, but I don’t think our current dressing room has that degree of spine or free thinking.

But if we *knew* what was going to happen we wouldn’t watch sport. It could be Arise Sir Warren of Gatlandshire for all I know.
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I think it’s 50-50 whether we even get out of the group so you won’t be seeing me saying we’re favourites against England if we play each other in the quarterfinals. I’ll fancy us against Argentina but only very slightly, that will be a 50-50 game if it happens.

I do think if Fiji can beat us in the opening game they can really build momentum and get to a semi final. I obviously hope wales get as far as we can but if we go out at the expense of Fiji doing well I can live with that.
 
Jimbo said:
I agree with much of this but what do Englands parts actually add up to? at some point we probably need to consider we have a lot of pretty solid players to pick between but very few if any which you could even make an argument for being anywhere near a world 15, maybe it’s just where we are, hopefully there are a few young gems to be unearthed but when you look at the top 4 or so sides they all have a few.
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Maybe. Although I think picking a World XV right now is tricky. IMO, there aren’t loads of blindingly obvious candidates and with the exception of France (who have 3 or 4), no one side has several very obvious picks in it. That’s partly why this RWC is so open.

Sides like Ireland and SA are stand out teams but have less individuals who’d be clear contenders for a World XV in their position IMO. Also, a lot of players who might have been obvious in the past are no longer at their peak - Sexton, de Klerk and Vermeulen would spring to mind for example.

Personally, I think winning this RWC is going to be more about maximising a decent amount of good resources rather than just individual star quality. England have a punchers’ chance IMO.
 
BPM said:
Maybe. Although I think picking a World XV right now is tricky. IMO, there aren’t loads of blindingly obvious candidates and with the exception of France (who have 3 or 4), no one side has several very obvious picks in it. That’s partly why this RWC is so open.

Sides like Ireland and SA are stand out teams but have less individuals who’d be clear contenders for a World XV in their position IMO. Also, a lot of players who might have been obvious in the past are no longer at their peak - Sexton, de Klerk and Vermeulen would spring to mind for example.

Personally, I think winning this RWC is going to be more about maximising a decent amount of good resources rather than just individual star quality. England have a punchers’ chance IMO.
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Punchers’ chance? So that’s why Marler’s in the squad.

Another angle is where the key man risk lies.

Ire aren’t winning without Sexton and probably Fra aren’t without Dupont.

Who else is totally critical to their team and will be wrapped in cotton wool? No Englishmen, obvs.
 
NZ have some good alternatives, but I’d argue that Ardie Savea is the heartbeat of their team. Same for Hooper for Australia. Kerevi and Koroibete make a massive difference for them too.
 
Pollard is pretty important for SA, they miss a lot of points off the tee without him and those points are crucial for SA.

Whatever about standouts I think we have 9 guys in a World XV convo, although some directly in competition with each other. Sheehan, Doris and Ringer walk in for me based on the past season tbh, probably Keenan too.
 
Sheehan definitely. ‘Ringer’, Keenan and Doris would definitely be in the conversation but I’m not sure about ‘walk in’. Aldritt would definitely be competing hard with Doris and Fickou with Ringrose for example.
 
Unfortunately, being in the group with 1st, 4th and 5th ranked in the world I'm hopeful but not confident at all for Scotland going through.

But, anything is possible.
 
This is the point though isn’t it, very rarely will you get universal acceptance that an individual is out and out the best in the world in that position, you will however find that it’s a conversation between 1-3 men in that position with little to choose sometimes it’s as simple as game plan would suit x, I’m really struggling to think of an England player if I was picking a world 15 tomorrow I’d even confidently consider.
 

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