2011 Squad Predictions

[Aedaphon]

Although it may be a bit premature given the start of Super 15 next month and the (ever shortening) stretch of time till the RWC, but what would TRF's predictions for International starting XVs/22s be at this moment in time?
(Though this is directly based on current squads I'm curious to see the debate from people with a better knowledge of the state of their national side)

I'll start with the likely England XV

1. Andy Sheridan
2. Dylan Hartley
3. Dan Cole
4. Courtney Lawes
5. Tom Palmer
6. Tom Croft
7. Lewis Moody
8. Nick Easter
9. Ben Youngs
10. Toby Flood
11. Mark Cueto
12. Shontayne Hape
13. Mike Tindall (As much as I would love Habanahan )
14. Chris Ashton
15. Ben Foden

Just seeing who wants to put in their two cents.

 

[Draggs]

Lawes, Croft, and Moody are out for the first few weeks.
Any news on Ashton?

 

[TRF_Olyy]

You mean for the World Cup?

Exactly as I expect it to be.
I also expect the bench to be:

16. Thompson
17. Wilson
18. Shaw
19. Haskell/Fourie (I expect Haskell to get a lot of game time during the 6N due to Croft being out, so he may overtake Fourie)
20. Care
21. Hodgson
22. Banahan (if Armitage misses any 6N - if not it's 50/50)


My ideal team though:
1. Sheridan (scrum has been good with him, despite it being his weak point - his carrying and rucking keeps him in)
2. Hartley
3. Cole
4. Lawes
5. Palmer
6. Croft
7. Armitage
8. Dowson
9. Youngs
10. Flood
11. Cueto
12. Barritt
13. Waldouck
14. Ashton
15. Foden

16. Thompson
17. Wilson
18. Attwood
19. Robshaw
20. Simpson
21. Hodgson
22. Abendanon (I think, not entirely certain - He's a great counter attacker, but I'm not 100% convinced. Foden is head and shoulders above any other English 15, the rest sort of blur together in his shadow)

 

[King_D'Arcy]

I think he mite mean squads for the world cup...


Bearing that in mind:

1. Healy
2. Cronin
3. Ross
4. Cullen
5. O'Connell
6. Ferris
7. O'Brien
8. Heaslip
9. O'Leary (Assuming Stringer loses form)
10. Sexton
11. Earls
12. D'Arcy
13. O'Driscoll
14. Bowe
15. Fitzgerald

 

[Draggs]

Ah, got it.

Wales

01 Gethin Jenkins
02 Matthew Rees (C)
03 Adam Jones
04 Alun Wyn Jones
05 Bradley Davies
06 Dan Lydiate
07 Sam Warburton
08 Gareth Delve/Andy Powell
09 Mike Phillips
10 James Hook
11 Shane Williams
12 Jamie Roberts
13 Gavin Henson
14 Leigh Halfpenny/George North
15 Lee Byrne/Leigh Halfpenny

16 Ken Owens
17 Paul James
18 Ryan Jones
19 Josh Turnbull (?)
20 Richie Rees/Dwayne Peel
21 Rhys Priestland/Jason Tovey
22 Jonathan Davies

 

[TIG]

^^^^ that Sam Warburton is a damn good prospect for Wales, seen him play a couple of games and he's impressed me every time. For Australia, Giteau should be in the squad for experience but NOT in the first XV or even starting 22 unless he has a stellar Super Rugby season. He's been out of form since 2008, can't kick goals anymore and throws tantrums when he doesn't play well. Cooper and Barnes should have been the starting 10 and 12 all year for the Wallabies and Anthony Fainga'a and a couple others deserve a bench spot more than Gits does. Julian Salvi should be in the squad providing he plays well this year, he was always an unsung hero at Super level and he tore it up in England and can cover all three back row positions with aplomb. Digby Ioane needs to be in the 22. We need to find a decent back-up to Will Genia because Burgess just isn't producing quality minutes. Wycliff Palu should not just walk into the side, he's been there or thereabouts for the last three or four years but never consistently made an impact. Peter Kimlin should get a look in for a spot at lock as no-one besides Nathan Sharpe really performed at a high level all year. The bottom line, and my message to the Australian selectors is, STOP PICKING GITEAU!!!

 

[dullonien]

This is what I'd like to see, not necessarily what we will see:

01 Gethin Jenkins
02 Matthew Rees
03 Adam Jones
04 Alun-Wyn Jones / Ryan Jones (Ryan's been playing very well there, and he adds an increased workrate over Alun-Wyn)
05 Bradley Davies / Ian Evans (Dependant on Ian Evans form, but his lineout prowess is sorely missed)
06 Dan Lydiate / Josh Turnbull (Similar players imo. Turnbulls workrate is better, but tends to burn out by 60ish mins)
07 Sam Warburton (Really is progressing nicely, quickly becoming a very important player for us, please no more injuries)
08 Andy Powell / Gareth Delve / Toby Faletau (Problem position, strong ball carryer needed basically)

09 Dwayne Peel (With a strong pack that can provide quick ball, Phillips isn't necessary imo. Peel will use that quick ball and sypply it better to the backline)
10 James Hook (The modern game suits his style. He'll be playing 10 in the run up to the comp with his new club. His form is semingly gone, but I'm sure it'll return by the WC)
11 Shane Williams
12 Jamie Roberts (If Henson returns to his best, then I'd have him here, but not expecting him to tbh)
13 Jonathan Davies (Roberts, if Henson 12)
14 Leigh Halfpenny / George North
15 Lee Byrne / Leigh Halfpenny

16 Ken Owens / Richard Hibbard (If Hibbard can sort his throwing, then him, but Ken Owens' all round game is better)
17 Paul James / Duncan Jones (If Jones' form continues to improve, his open field game is better than Paul James')
18 Simon Gardiner / Craig Mitchell / Eifion Lewis-Roberts / Scott Andrews (Whoever proves himself by then, though Roberts is unlikely given that he's out)
19 Ryan Jones / Alun-Wyn Jones
20 Josh Turnbull / Dan Lydiate (Though Lydiate isn't a great bench option, as he really only covers blindside)
21 Mike Phillips
22 Stephen Jones
23 George North / Rhys Priestland (Maybe North will be tried at centre for the Scarlets when he returns, so could cover centre aswell)

Not sure about a couple of the bench spots. Mainly who's the best backrow cover if Turnbull starts (he's good cover if he doesn't), and who would make the best utility back to cover centre and wing. Halfpenny or Roberts would be fullback cover if needed.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Probably premature but for SA:

1 Guthro Steenkamp with Tendai Mtawarira as back up
2 Its going to be between Bismarck du Plessis and John Smit.
3 Jannie du Plessis is the incumbent. It's probably CJ van der Linde to be back up but I think there is scope for someone new. Probably not so close to RWC though.
4 Bakkies Botha, Danie Rossouw with Flip van der Merwe
5 Victor Matfield and Andries Bekker
6 Between Brussow, Burger and Willem Alberts as
7 Juan Smith has 7 all wrapped up
8 Pierre Spies probably
9 Fourie du Preez and Francois Hougaard with Pienaar as cover for 9 and 10. PdV seems to have gotten over his Ricky januarie crush and the latter needs to get into serious shape to start for the Stormers and possibly become an option for the Bokke again.
10 Morne Steyn and it will be interesting to see if Lambie/Jantjies gets another crack; probably depends on their respective forms in the S15. Butch James seems to be in PdV's backmind. Pity Grant didn't get a shot last year as he probably won't get a look in this year.
11 Brian Habana is the incumbent but needs to find form or lose out to either Lwazi Mvovo, Bjorn Basson, JP Pietersen, Gio Aplon or even Lionel Mapoe if he gets back to his former form back from injury. Possibly Jongi Nokwe but he seems out of favor.
12 Jean de Villiers
13 Jacque Fourie and Juan de Jongh to cover both centers.
14 One of the other wingers
15 Here is where I have no idea. Would prefer Frans Steyn but he is playing overseas. Conrad Jantjes is back from injury and although solid falls into the same category as Zane Kirschner; limited. Gio Aplon is an option but size and a lack of a kicking game counts against him and Lambie seems set to play fly half. Don't be surprised to see Louis Ludik from the Sharks get a look in if he continues as he has during the latter parts of 2010.

Injury to our thin spread of centres would probably see Steyn, Olivier or Jacobs in. None of which inspire much confidence in me. I would prefer Lambie at 12 but then there is the risk of him becoming another Brent Russell, Steyn or Pienaar. Probably best to let him focus on a position.

We have experienced depth in most positions and great talent but the backbone of our squad is ageing and for us it will be a question of whether we can find form towards the RWC (and whether we can find a gameplan).

 

[nickdnz]

My pick for the 30 man RWC squad (what I'd like) for the AB's.

1. Tony Woodcock
2. Kevin Mealamu
3. Owen Franks
4. Brad Thorn
5. Sam Whitelock
6. Jerome Kaino
7. Richie McCaw
8. Kieren Read
9. Peri Weepu
10. Daniel Carter
11. Hosea Gear
12. Ma'a Nonu
13. Conrad Smith
14. Sitivini Sivivatu
15. Cory Jane

16. Andrew Hore
17. John Afoa
18. Chris Jack
19. Victor Vito
20. Alby Mathewson
21. Aaron Cruden
22. Mils Muliaina

R. Hika Elliot
R. Ben Franks
R. Ali Williams
R. Daniel Braid
R. Jimmy Cowan
R. Colin Slade
R. Richard Kahui
R. Joe Rokocoko

 

[Teh Mite]

I know it's still a good many months yet, but dropping Mils to the bench? Really?

 

[nickdnz]

I know it's still a good many months yet, but dropping Mils to the bench? Really?

I'm not his biggest fan. He's a very good player, but I think Cory Jane is better, and lately Mils has been playing a bit selfishly and making a few stupid decisions that people seem to ignore. He kicked constantly during the EoYT, often aimlessly down field, when there were players for counter attacking. Cory Jane doesn't make those kind of mistakes. It's a matter of opinion, and I expected to be caught out on it, but I do prefer Jane. Mils also can play centre if need be, so there is also that advantage.

I left out Israel Dagg, Robert Fruean, Liam Messam, Isaia Toeava and Sonny Bill Williams which I also expect there will be a few disagreements. They're all good enough to be in the squad, but I prefer their replacements.

 

[ranger]

I'm not his biggest fan. He's a very good player, but I think Cory Jane is better, and lately Mils has been playing a bit selfishly and making a few stupid decisions that people seem to ignore. He kicked constantly during the EoYT, often aimlessly down field, when there were players for counter attacking. Cory Jane doesn't make those kind of mistakes. It's a matter of opinion, and I expected to be caught out on it, but I do prefer Jane. Mils also can play centre if need be, so there is also that advantage.

I left out Israel Dagg, Robert Fruean, Liam Messam, Isaia Toeava and Sonny Bill Williams which I also expect there will be a few disagreements. They're all good enough to be in the squad, but I prefer their replacements.

Exactly what i was thinking. 9 times out of 10 he would just tuck the ball away and run it back all by himself. Hes nowhere near the best runner in the squad so it was just criminal that he was hogging all those attacking opportunities, his pass/run ratio would be shocking.
It was frustrating reading in the paper and hearing people talking about how Mills was back to his best, if you run it everytime you get near the ball youre bound to make a break eventually..

I disagree on the rest of your outside backs though. I know how much you love Joe and Hosea; but Sivi, Hosea and Joe are too similar to take all three. Dagg has to go, he is magic everytime he touches it, he would be my pick for 15 with Jane at 14.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

My pick for the 30 man RWC squad (what I'd like) for the AB's.

1. Tony Woodcock
2. Kevin Mealamu
3. Owen Franks
4. Brad Thorn
5. Sam Whitelock
6. Jerome Kaino
7. Richie McCaw
8. Kieren Read
9. Peri Weepu
10. Daniel Carter
11. Hosea Gear
12. Ma'a Nonu
13. Conrad Smith
14. Sitivini Sivivatu
15. Cory Jane

16. Andrew Hore
17. John Afoa
18. Chris Jack
19. Victor Vito
20. Alby Mathewson
21. Aaron Cruden
22. Mils Muliaina

R. Hika Elliot
R. Ben Franks
R. Ali Williams
R. Daniel Braid
R. Jimmy Cowan
R. Colin Slade
R. Richard Kahui
R. Joe Rokocoko

Israel Dagg ahead of Rokocoko and I would pick the same except maybe Isaia Toe'ava ahead of Kahui but that is moot.

 

[nickdnz]

Exactly what i was thinking. 9 times out of 10 he would just tuck the ball away and run it back all by himself. Hes nowhere near the best runner in the squad so it was just criminal that he was hogging all those attacking opportunities, his pass/run ratio would be shocking.
It was frustrating reading in the paper and hearing people talking about how Mills was back to his best, if you run it everytime you get near the ball youre bound to make a break eventually..

I disagree on the rest of your outside backs though. I know how much you love Joe and Hosea; but Sivi, Hosea and Joe are too similar to take all three. Dagg has to go, he is magic everytime he touches it, he would be my pick for 15 with Jane at 14.

Well, Sivivatu was the best outside back of 2009 with Cory Jane, and Hosea Gear was arguably the best of 2010. I can see why anyone would pick Dagg over Joe, I just would love to see Joe score 4 more tries in his career, and then I'd be happy to replace him. I think he's still got a bit more magic left in him. I guess my brain says Dagg but my heart says Rokocoko.

Thank you for agreeing with me on Mils, I was feeling pretty alone on this during the AI's. Don't see why everyone thought he was doing so great, short of his test tally going up.

 

[Aedaphon]

This has just highlighted how many international standard backs the All Blacks can field, I have a feeling that the selection process will be pretty dependent on form in the Super 15 though.

Much as I love the Nonu-Smith centre pairing with Sonny Bill playing crusaders this season the Carter-Williams 10-12 pairing could be a popular option for the selectors. Having said that I have no doubt both Nonu and Williams will be in the squad and quite possibly alternated as they were in the AIs.
My choice for back 3 would have to be:
11. Gear
14. Dagg
15. Muliaina

But Toeava, Sivivatu, Jane, Rokocoko, Guildford will all be strong competition.

 

[Amobokoboko]

My pick for the 30 man RWC squad (what I'd like) for the AB's.

1. Tony Woodcock
2. Kevin Mealamu
3. Owen Franks
4. Brad Thorn
5. Sam Whitelock
6. Jerome Kaino
7. Richie McCaw
8. Kieren Read
9. Peri Weepu
10. Daniel Carter
11. Hosea Gear
12. Ma'a Nonu
13. Conrad Smith
14. Sitivini Sivivatu
15. Cory Jane

16. Andrew Hore
17. John Afoa
18. Chris Jack
19. Victor Vito
20. Alby Mathewson
21. Aaron Cruden
22. Mils Muliaina

R. Hika Elliot
R. Ben Franks
R. Ali Williams
R. Daniel Braid
R. Jimmy Cowan
R. Colin Slade
R. Richard Kahui
R. Joe Rokocoko

I really like your selection, but regarding Siva. I would like to see him play a couple of games in super rugby ( wasn't he out with an injury, can't remember him playing the ITM Final)

 

[nickdnz]

This has just highlighted how many international standard backs the All Blacks can field, I have a feeling that the selection process will be pretty dependent on form in the Super 15 though.

Much as I love the Nonu-Smith centre pairing with Sonny Bill playing crusaders this season the Carter-Williams 10-12 pairing could be a popular option for the selectors. Having said that I have no doubt both Nonu and Williams will be in the squad and quite possibly alternated as they were in the AIs.
My choice for back 3 would have to be:
11. Gear
14. Dagg
15. Muliaina

But Toeava, Sivivatu, Jane, Rokocoko, Guildford will all be strong competition.

Interesting to see how Dagg has seemed to feature as much as Cory Jane. Dagg has played three good games, with roughly a total of 120minutes on the field, but Jane is possibly the best outside back in the world. I think people are jumping the gun a little bit on Israel Dagg. He looks really promising, but I wouldn't say he's earned a starter position.

I really like your selection, but regarding Siva. I would like to see him play a couple of games in super rugby ( wasn't he out with an injury, can't remember him playing the ITM Final)

Yeah, he was selected for the EoYT, but then got another injury after his second game back, before Waikato got to the final. I can't see him being left out though, but if he can't find his form, I'd chuck Dagg in to replace him.

 

[woodward]

I would keep Dagg away from the wing, I would've given him more gametime last year. Hopefully he gets a chance this year.

 

[ranger]

Interesting to see how Dagg has seemed to feature as much as Cory Jane. Dagg has played three good games, with roughly a total of 120minutes on the field, but Jane is possibly the best outside back in the world. I think people are jumping the gun a little bit on Israel Dagg. He looks really promising, but I wouldn't say he's earned a starter position.

The way i look at it, the 11 jersey should be reserved for all out running attacking weapons (Joe, Hosea, Ranger, Sivi, Savea possibly) but ONLY the 11 jersey. The other wing should be exclusively Corey Jane and guys who play his sort of game (Ben Smith, Jared Payne, Guildford maybe). Hes a great fullback, but NZ has so much fullback depth its ridiculous, it doesn't make any sense moving him when he is just as effective at 14 and there aren't as many good options to replace him there.

Then as you brought up, Mills is looking a bit average. If Jane stays at 14 then Dagg should be first in line for starting fullback. He may have only played 120 minutes of All Black rugby, but he has never had a bad game at any level. He has been the Highlanders and Hawkes Bays best player by some distance over the past few years. Assuming Jane stays at 14 and Mills gets dropped, who is more deserving of the starting 15 jersey?

 

[nickdnz]

The way i look at it, the 11 jersey should be reserved for all out running attacking weapons (Joe, Hosea, Ranger, Sivi, Savea possibly) but ONLY the 11 jersey. The other wing should be exclusively Corey Jane and guys who play his sort of game (Ben Smith, Jared Payne, Guildford maybe). Hes a great fullback, but NZ has so much fullback depth its ridiculous, it doesn't make any sense moving him when he is just as effective at 14 and there aren't as many good options to replace him there.

Then as you brought up, Mills is looking a bit average. If Jane stays at 14 then Dagg should be first in line for starting fullback. He may have only played 120 minutes of All Black rugby, but he has never had a bad game at any level. He has been the Highlanders and Hawkes Bays best player by some distance over the past few years. Assuming Jane stays at 14 and Mills gets dropped, who is more deserving of the starting 15 jersey?

Sure, I have no problem with Dagg as a 2nd choice fullback, but I do think Jane is better there than anyone. But I suppose it's better to have Jane in the team somewhere, than no where. What did you think of Toeava being played on the right wing, over Cory Jane during the EoYT? Think he's even an option there? I personally wasn't a big fan, but some people are now saying that is where he belongs.