[2013 ITM Cup] Premiership Final: Canterbury v Wellington

[ABs2011]

Thought I'd start a thread.

Just seen Canterbury team named.

Canterbury: Tom Taylor, Patrick Osborne, Adam Whitelock, Ryan Crotty, Johnny McNicholl, Tyler Bleyendaal, Andy Ellis, Nasi Manu, George Whitelock (c), Luke Whitelock, Luke Katene, Joel Everson, Nepo Laulala, Ben Funnell, Joe Moody. Reserves: Marcel Cummings-Toone, Paea Fa'anunu, Dominic Bird, Jordan Taufua, Willi Heinz, Rob Thompson, Colin Slade.

Pretty good side! When you have All Blacks (Bird and Slade) on the bench you know you are doing OK.

Also note the inclusion of Tom Taylor at full back, Crotty at 12, Ellis starts at 9, and Moody starting. Pretty good Canterbury team but are they going to be good enough on the day to beat the form side of the comp??

And now Wellington named as well.

Wellington: Charlie Ngatai, Matt Proctor, Tim Bateman, Shaun Treeby, Alapati Leiua, Lima Sopoaga, Frae Wilson, Victor Vito (capt), Ardie Savea, Brad Shields, Api Naikatini, Mark Reddish, Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, Motu Matu'u, John Schwalger. Reserves: Reggie Goodes, Eric Sione, Kaipati Gaualofa, Faifili Levave, Adam Hill, Tomasi Palu, Joe Hill


EDIT: Added L Whitelock @ 6 & added Paea Fa'anunu on the bench.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

It's amazing how many injuries this side has had this season, especially at hooker!

Can't see Wellington taking it, to be honest. Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but I doubt it.

It will be nice to see some of the fringe All Blacks playing - Whitelock and Shields going head to head, and obviously Savea and Vito in the loose forwards as well. I'm expecting a big game out of McNicholl.

 

[Darwin]

Thought I'd start a thread.

Just seen Canterbury team named.
Canterbury: Tom Taylor, Patrick Osborne, Adam Whitelock, Ryan Crotty, Johnny McNicholl, Tyler Bleyendaal, Andy Ellis, Nasi Manu, George Whitelock (c), Luke Katene, Joel Everson, Nepo Laulala, Ben Funnell, Joe Moody. Reserves: Marcel Cummings-Toone, Dominic Bird, Jordan Taufua, Willi Heinz, Rob Thompson, Colin Slade.

Pretty good side! When you have All Blacks (Bird and Slade) on the bench you know you are doing OK.

Also note the inclusion of Tom Taylor at full back, Crotty at 12, Ellis starts at 9, and Moody starting. Pretty good Canterbury team but are they going to be good enough on the day to beat the form side of the comp??

Either Canterbury is going in with only 14 players or Luke Whitelocks name is missing from that team list (the reserve prop - Fa'anunu - is also missing) Not a bad looking side - I will wait until I see the Wellington lineup before I make any predictions though.

 

[ABs2011]

It's amazing how many injuries this side has had this season, especially at hooker!

Can't see Wellington taking it, to be honest. Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but I doubt it.

It will be nice to see some of the fringe All Blacks playing - Whitelock and Shields going head to head, and obviously Savea and Vito in the loose forwards as well. I'm expecting a big game out of McNicholl.

Yeah, I'm struggling to get my head round who I think will win this one.

Form tells me Wellington, Home advantage goes to Wellington, but big game know how is with the Red and Blacks. IF the game were in Canterbury I would for sure tag them as favourites but these Wellington lads have been sublime at home this year. I really like the way their loosies in particular have just dominated their opposition. I also have a pretty heft return riding on a Canterbury win. I've been slowly but surely hedging on Wellington this week!

My Gut says Wellington win this one.

What are other peoples thoughts??

 

[ABs2011]

Either Canterbury is going in with only 14 players or Luke Whitelocks name is missing from that team list (the reserve prop - Fa'anunu - is also missing) Not a bad looking side - I will wait until I see the Wellington lineup before I make any predictions though.

Haha, didn't notice that!!

Changed the team above. Stuff still got it wrong though!

EDIT: Seem to be short on reserves as well!!

 

[ABs2011]

Wellington team named.

Wellington: Charlie Ngatai, Matt Proctor, Tim Bateman, Shaun Treeby, Alapati Leiua, Lima Sopoaga, Frae Wilson, Victor Vito (capt), Ardie Savea, Brad Shields, Api Naikatini, Mark Reddish, Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, Motu Matu'u, John Schwalger. Reserves: Reggie Goodes, Eric Sione, Kaipati Gaualofa, Faifili Levave, Adam Hill, Tomasi Palu, Joe Hill

That is a pretty mean line up. Full strength side bar ABs. Love their loosies, backs are as dangerous as ever. I think they win this one!

 

[Darwin]

Pretty strong looking Wellington side - should be a cracker of a match (assuming the weather is ok). There are some great match-ups all over the park.

The front rows are pretty evenly matched, though I suspect Canterbury will have a slight edge at scrum-time. Moody v Toomaga-Allen with be great to watch, as in my opinion these are the form LH & form TH of the competition. Moody will want to show why the All Blacks selectors are interested in him, as there are many people questioning his selection. Both sides have solid - if unspectacular - locking combinations, though I expect Bird to make an impact when he comes on as he did lack weekend.

If there is one area where I feel Wellington have a clear edge it is in the loose forwards. It is not that Canterbury are poor in this area, just that the Wellington trio is exceptional. Luke Whitelock has a lot to prove, especially as many (myself included) consider the likes of Brad Shields & Victor Vito (and Nasi Manu for that matter) more worthy of a spot in the AB's. One of his primary roles will be stopping the Wellington loosies making metres close to the breakdown (which is no easy task!). Savea has a massive advantage in speed and athleticism over George Whitelock - if it is a very open game the speed of the Wellington loose-forward trio as a whole will give them an advantage at the breakdown. George Whitelock is an experienced player though, so if it turns into a tight forward-oriented contest he could have the edge. Both Vito and Manu have been in great form, and are key ball runners for their sides. Manu is particularly important for Canterbury as he is the only really strong ball runner in their pack (at least until Taufua comes on) - I expect he will make twice as many runs as any of the other Canterbury forwards in the match.

Canterbury have the advantage in the halves in my opinion. Ellis was almost unstoppable last weekend, while Heinz is a pretty handy player to bring off the best - both are clearly better players than Wilson (or Palu). Bleyendaal may not have yet lived up to initial hype, but his continually improving - he is a dependable defender, kicks well, and we are seeing far more of his running game this season. Sopoaga has been good for Wellington, and is certainly a threat with ball in hand, but I still worry about his defense, and his goal-kicking is still very average. If it comes down to a kicking contest Wellington are in big trouble, as Tom Taylor is probably the best goal-kicker in the country, while Bleyendaal is also a much better kicker than Sopoaga.

The Midfield battle is pretty evenly matched. Treeby will run straight and hard all day, but I suspect he will be well contained by Crotty and Bleyendaal. Crotty himself has been in great form - I suspect he will run quite a bit at Sopoaga. Bateman has impressed for Wellington this season (after a pretty dire Hurricanes season), while Adam Whitelock is always solid (if unspectacular) at this level.

Both teams have plenty of fire power out wide. Osbourne vs Leuia will be a great match-up, as both a big powerful guys. Osbourne will certainly be a key weapon for Canterbury in attack, but I feel Wellington will look to target him on attack (either with ball in hand or in the air), as he is notoriously shaky in defense. I'm a massive fan of McNicholl, but I do rate Proctor too, so that should be an great match-up too. Wellington will be happy to have Ngatai back at fullback as he bring another dimension to their attack with his size and pace, and also offers a massive boot from the back. Likewise Canterbury will be happy to have Taylor back, as he has proven he can really step-up in the big games.

Overall I find this a really hard game to call. On paper I give a slight edge to Wellington, but given Canterbury's history of winning the NPC in recent years (and Wellington's history of stumbling at the final hurdle) I'm going to have to pick Canterbury to win a close one.

 

[ABs2011]

Cant argue with anything you have said there mate! Except the final pick I REALLY hope you are right though!!
In saying that, the one thing that will swing this more towards Canterbury IMHO is the weather. A tight, scrapy, rubbish weather game, will play to Canterbury's advantages in the halves and kicking (in game and goal kicking).
Weather is absolutely rubbish here in Wellington now; wind and rain and more is forecast for tomorrow night!

 

[ABs2011]

Wild Weather Set to Play It's Part in Final

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Well, that was pretty anticlimactic in the end... Canterbury running out relatively comfortable winners, dominating territory hugely.

Wellington's loose forwards were pretty ineffective, bar Vito, who would have been close to man of the match. Savea and Shields didn't have much impact, Savea in particular didn't seem to have much of an effect on the game. Luke Whitelock was also almost non-existent.

Congratulations to Canterbury, possibly the best team in the world at sewing up finals.

 

[Darwin]

Surprise surprise. Canterbury win ***le 378 in a row. It was pretty comprehensive in the end (15 points!). Canterbury arguably had the better of the first half playing into the wind (despite being just behind on the scoreboard), and they really dominated that second half with the wind behind them.

Patrick Osbourne stood out early on, while I thought all three Whitelock's had pretty good games, along with Ryan Crotty & Ben Funnell (a couple of shaky lineout throws aside). Vito impressed in the air but he (along with the rest of the Wellington side) were in general very well contained by Canterbury.

Well, that was pretty anticlimactic in the end... Canterbury running out relatively comfortable winners, dominating territory hugely.

Wellington's loose forwards were pretty ineffective, bar Vito, who would have been close to man of the match. Savea and Shields didn't have much impact, Savea in particular didn't seem to have much of an effect on the game. Luke Whitelock was also almost non-existent.

Congratulations to Canterbury, possibly the best team in the world at sewing up finals.

I actually thought he had a pretty solid game (probably one of the better games I have seen him play!). He did some good work at the breakdown, was accurate in defense, and made a couple of ok runs with ball in hand. I would go as far as to say that, based on that game alone, he may be good enough to play Super Rugby one day

 

[Chikwa]

Surprise surprise. Canterbury win ***le 378 in a row. It was pretty comprehensive in the end (15 points!). Canterbury arguably had the better of the first half playing into the wind (despite being just behind on the scoreboard), and they really dominated that second half with the wind behind them.

Patrick Osbourne stood out early on, while I thought all three Whitelock's had pretty good games, along with Ryan Crotty & Ben Funnell (a couple of shaky lineout throws aside). Vito impressed in the air but he (along with the rest of the Wellington side) were in general very well contained by Canterbury.

George was outstanding.Adam was solid.Luke was non existent .Why oh why is he an all black? Even George must be asking that question ?

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Probably the most interesting thing to come out of the match is that Joe Moody may be injured...

 

[Darwin]

Probably the most interesting thing to come out of the match is that Joe Moody may be injured...

Yeah, that was disappointing to see. He looked in a bit of pain when he went of the field. If he is out I imagine Ben Afeaki will be the next prop in line (followed by Toomaga-Allen) - I can't see them calling up another LH prop, as they were possibly scrapping the bottom of the barrel as it was with Moody

Forgot to mention that Andy Ellis had another great game (as he usually does). He is a pretty average passer, isn't overly quick or strong, but boy does he read the game well. He is still close to the best halfback in the country in my opinion (not that I would probably select him...).

 

[Chikwa]

George was outstanding.Adam was solid.Luke was non existent .Why oh why is he an all black? Even George must be asking that question ?

Magnificent Scott Robinson breakdancing! And good to see robbie fruen joining in the celebrations!

 

[smartcooky]

Meh. People criticise Luke Whitelock for the same reasons they used to criticise Reuben Thorne.

They call him useless because he doesn't make 253 tackles, 157 line-breaks and 2576 running metres in the game, and they completely undervalue the work be does that is usually only seen by experienced rugby analysts when they focus on the players and their personal workrate for the entire game.

FWIW, I thought Luke Whitelock was pretty good tonight in most aspects of the game. For sure, I don't see in him what the All Blacks coaches do, but then, I'm not a Test Rugby Coach who has gone two years now without losing a game in the Rugby Championship.

 

[smartcooky]

Interesting to note...

Tasman won the Championship

Mid-Canterbury won the Meads Cup

Canterbury won the Premiership

Tomorrow, South Canterbury play Buller in the Lochore Cup final

No matter what happens in that match, the National Provincial Championships for 2013 are going to be a Crusaders clean sweep!

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Meh. People criticise Luke Whitelock for the same reasons they used to criticise Reuben Thorne.

They call him useless because he doesn't make 253 tackles, 157 line-breaks and 2576 running metres in the game, and they completely undervalue the work be does that is usually only seen by experienced rugby analysts when they focus on the players and their personal workrate for the entire game.

FWIW, I thought Luke Whitelock was pretty good tonight in most aspects of the game. For sure, I don't see in him what the All Blacks coaches do, but then, I'm not a Test Rugby Coach who has gone two years now without losing a game in the Rugby Championship.

Reuben Thorne DID make a large number of tackles though, and he also hit a huge number of breakdowns. Luke Whitelock doesn't make nearly as many tackles as Thorne did, and although he may hit a decent number of breakdowns, he's very rarely in the top five in the team. His carrying is almost completely ineffective. He's basically the forward version of Adam Whitelock.

I've never been a huge fan of Vito, but he's been absolutely immense this season. At the start of the game they showed a few stats to compare between him and Whitelock, and Vito won in every single stat except for errors made, where he lost out by a couple. Now if the stats were very close, but Whitelock had a slightly better work rate, I'd be tempted to opt for him, but Vito won in a landslide. With Messam and Luatua covering six, we don't particularly need a a third player, we need an out and out 8 - which Vito is. If Read was injured I'd pick Vito over Whitelock in a heartbeat.

Just my opinion, but there are only so many things a player can do in a match, so I don't know what extra things the selectors are seeing that everyone else can't see. Whitelock hasn't even spent much time in in Super Rugby (he's somehow amassed 28 caps, but I'd wager in at least 75% of these matches he's spent less than 20 minutes on the field, so I don't really know what else there is that he's doing...

 

[smartcooky]

Just my opinion, but there are only so many things a player can do in a match, so I don't know what extra things the selectors are seeing that everyone else can't see. Whitelock hasn't even spent much time in in Super Rugby (he's somehow amassed 28 caps, but I'd wager in at least 75% of these matches he's spent less than 20 minutes on the field, so I don't really know what else there is that he's doing...

...and can you tell me who the last All Black was who was selected on the form for his Provincial side having played even less Super Rugby than Luke Whitelock?

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

...and can you tell me who the last All Black was who was selected on the form for his Provincial side having played even less Super Rugby than Luke Whitelock?

Oh it's not the fact he's being selected out of the NPC, it's the combination of his lack of experience at Super level alongside his (ostensible) relative ineffectiveness at NPC level (i.e. a lack of any evident form). He's actually only played 20 odd games for Canterbury also, I've just realised.

To answer your question, I have no idea. Toeava had little experience/form and was selected, but I feel like that's not the answer you're looking for