A Political Thread pt. 2

[ncurd]

Can only assume it is an optics thing and that's all. It would look odd if he just didn't say anything all day and he'd have the classic crowds calling him a russian asset or smth but im not sure, but then surely just move commons business around and move 5pm up? Maybe waiting to coordinate with Washington etc so can't be earlier.

No idea, just have to wait ig

They'll still call him an asset. A public written statement followed by televised briefing would of been fine.

Guess he wanted to be first saying something or the like.....but what the point to say nothing.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

UVDL confirming at NATO summit that the sanctions will be signed off by the UK, US, EU, Canada, Norway, Japan and Aus later today so that confims why the Commons is at 5pm

 

[Which Tyler]

You don't actually think he thinks it's wonderful?

Out of interest, how do you translate Turmp's quote of "We could use that on our Southern border"?

 

[Yulia]

I hope your family stay safe.

Thank you very much!

So, I talked to the only one aunt in Lvov (but that doesn't matter, she's in contact with the rest).
What's going on in Ukraine now:
In Lvov everything is pretty ok, but there are loud alarms. My relatives are still calm,but didn't go to work.. nothing is working normally...there are HUGE queues in shops and atm machines.
It seems I'm more in panic than my relatives but I can't stop panic tbh..I was trying to stay calm and turn off emotions last week, to keep a "cold head", but I'm tired to be scared.. can't sleep normally in the nights..I hope everything stops with destruction of military objects and "independent" Donbas. Please, please.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Out of interest, how do you translate Turmp's quote of "We could use that on our Southern border"?

That hes a bit of a *** that wants to use tanks to scare off immigrants, not that he wants to invade Mexico if that's what you were thinking lol

 

[Which Tyler]

if that's what you were thinking lol

I was asking your opinion, not putting words in your mouth.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Crazy how much footage already of things on Reddit.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Good job we have a government that quashes reports into Russian interference in our democracy and doesn’t enact a single recommendation from said report. Not to mention the donations and appointing sons of ex KGB operatives into the House of Lords. You couldn’t make it up.

 

[ncurd]

Surprising no one

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Crazy how much footage already of things on Reddit.

Yeah all over tiktok. Enjoying the "If this keeps escalating, I'm going to have to intervene" comments.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Crazy how much footage already of things on Reddit.

Mental

 

[Welsh Exile]

The worry for me is how this already, by our inaction, is being normalised. Ukraine is ****** and it seems no one really wants to do anything about it. Can’t have it effecting our bottom lines can we. Even though Johnson is the biggest joke in UK political history it’s a collective problem. There’s people already saying “he won’t go any further” I mean, this is crazy to me whether he does or doesn’t.

Oh well, as I say, at least we have the most corrupt, incompetent useless piece of **** as a prime minister.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

It's one of the issues of mutually assured destruction
Putin has his finger on the nuke button saying if the West intervene he will nuke everyone - so NATO has to just accept regular warfare as the lesser of two evils and let it play out, while trying to starve Russia of funds instead

 

[Welsh Exile]

I mean, this is one ****** up game of poker but Putin ain’t nuking ****

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

The worry for me is how this already, by our inaction, is being normalised. Ukraine is ****** and it seems no one really wants to do anything about it. Can’t have it effecting our bottom lines can we. Even though Johnson is the biggest joke in UK political history it’s a collective problem. There’s people already saying “he won’t go any further” I mean, this is crazy to me whether he does or doesn’t.

Oh well, as I say, at least we have the most corrupt, incompetent useless piece of **** as a prime minister.

Wait who is normalising this sorry?

Also, if we had nuclear power plants everywhere rn I'd be a million times more confident as to the success of sanctions - it's exactly why Germany has been so impotent as well.


Nuclear in the long term, fracking in the mean time - energy indpendence is key and has been for a long time but everyone seems more interested in rhetoric over actually making good policy

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I mean, this is one ****** up game of poker but Putin ain’t nuking ****

Yeah, I don't expect it to ever reach that far, but the threat of it will definitely put the dampeners on any military intervention by the west

"Whoever tries to hinder us, and even more so, to create threats to our country, to our people, should know that Russia's response will be immediate.
"And it will lead you to such consequences that you have never encountered in your history.
"We are ready for any development of events. All the necessary decisions have been made in this regard. I hope that I will be heard."

Doesn't leave much to the imagination

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Wait who is normalising this sorry?

Also, if we had nuclear power plants everywhere rn I'd be a million times more confident as to the success of sanctions - it's exactly why Germany has been so impotent as well.


Nuclear in the long term, fracking in the mean time - energy indpendence is key and has been for a long time but everyone seems more interested in rhetoric over actually making good policy

The stupid thing is people have been saying we need to move away from oil and gas reliance for geo-political reasons as well as global warming, but governments as usual have all been lethargic.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Wait who is normalising this sorry?

Also, if we had nuclear power plants everywhere rn I'd be a million times more confident as to the success of sanctions - it's exactly why Germany has been so impotent as well.


Nuclear in the long term, fracking in the mean time - energy indpendence is key and has been for a long time but everyone seems more interested in rhetoric over actually making good policy

We are. The west. As said it’s a collective thing because, take the Tories for example, are so far up Russia’s arse it’s not even funny. I remember you taking a very nonchalant view to that report being suppressed but got your back up when the voter ID debate came up. But yeah, it’s a collective problem.

 

[Welsh Exile]

Yeah, I don't expect it to ever reach that far, but the threat of it will definitely put the dampeners on any military intervention by the west

"Whoever tries to hinder us, and even more so, to create threats to our country, to our people, should know that Russia's response will be immediate.
"And it will lead you to such consequences that you have never encountered in your history.
"We are ready for any development of events. All the necessary decisions have been made in this regard. I hope that I will be heard."

Doesn't leave much to the imagination

No it doesn’t and it is very worrying times but it’s a bluff. He knows no one is going to do anything. He knows it.

Good job we have a really competent, strong, stable government making these decisions for us. Maybe we could bung them a few quid through some back channels to keep the money flowing.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

I imagine Russia will avoid direct ground conflict wherever possible (you risk losing life in a 'fair fight') and simply use complete air superiority to bomb from the skies and move in when a target area is rubble and possible resistance is minimised. As per Russia and US tactics in Syria; US and British in Iraq etc. This way you can maintain public support by keeping your casualties at well below 1% of the foes while dismantling their military and giving them a good old dose of 'collateral damage' and 'shock and awe' from the skies . It means progress will be slower, but Putin has all the time in the world as nobody will come to Ukraine's aid.

Ukraine must devote resources on the separatist border but, if things go badly, pull back to the heartland (Kyiv) before they risk having those forces cut off. Then be realistic about next steps and focus on a protracted guerrilla war in urban areas. They must also keep a channel open to Poland to allow refugees and potentially a de Gaulle like government-in-exile. Russia will soon show if the priority is Eastern Ukraine or the entire country and Ukraine must take serious decisions in response about their own priorities. Better 15 million people ripped out of a law abiding democratic life than 41 million.

I doubt Putin is doing this simply to extend gains in Eastern Ukraine (Kharkiv) but I wouldn't completely rule that out yet. To have the entire world denounce you and do this you must be thinking big in terms of full regime change and territorial merger with eastern Moldova and (current worst case scenario over the longer term) Kaliningrad, the latter of which would entail NATO territory. But he can take his time and evaluate his options with little rush.

The democratic world must effectively remove Russia from the global trade system, pressurise China to limit their assistance and give Ukraine as much support as possible in terms of supplies, military advice, housing of refugees and medical assistance. It must also bolster the hell out of the NATO border and discuss matters urgently with non NATO nations like Finland and Sweden, to offer them the option of membership.

I thought I would see these sorts of lawless days in the 2030s, not in the 2020s. I hope Ukraine can give Putin a bloody nose to force a reconsideration of present and future military goals. But with no airforce and seemingly limited air defences it is hard to see how this can be achieved.

The UK media complaining that wheat prices might rise and the cost of pasta might go up tells you everything about the level of ignorance, discourse and general empathy for our fellow man here. Overall I think we have leaders at present in most other major democratic nations to create a reasonably coherent response, but if you are in Eastern Europe and not within NATO territory you should be very nervous.

We must accept US intelligence has been proven accurate and that they were not crying wolf. If so, that means full invasion, death lists of pro-democracy figures and a puppet regime with someone like this fellow.

Yevhen Murayev - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Incredibly bleak times.