A Political Thread pt. 2

[Ragey Erasmus]

Thats kinda how invasions work. I not condoning Putin but this is how this **** goes down, its that or he keeps advancing and takes the whole nation. you objective is to call his bluff or not do you give up some territory in the hope he'll stop permently or give time so you build adequate defences. Or do you hold out hope they don't have the stomach and will lose more than they are asking for.

There's always the possibility that Putin will simply invade again in the future of course. Such a deal would be essentially worthless as it would give Ukraine zero protections and explicitly prevent them from doing the one thing that could protect them.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Thats kinda how invasions work. I not condoning Putin but this is how this **** goes down, its that or he keeps advancing and takes the whole nation. you objective is to call his bluff or not do you give up some territory in the hope he'll stop permently or give time so you build adequate defences. Or do you hold out hope they don't have the stomach and will lose more than they are asking for.

My question is if I could ask Putin is how even after “conquering” Ukraine how the hell does he expects to hold onto it and win back the Ukrainian majority population? Just subjugate them like he does the rest of the Russian population?

No doubt even if Ukraine signed such an agreement he would keep Russian troops in some form or other in Crimea/Independent states to ensure Ukraine kept their end of any bargain.

All I can see is some kind of Guerilla war fare/ Terrorist separatist organisation evolving from a ruptured Ukraine. This doesn’t end well regardless - another Palestine/Israel/ NI/Ireland.

 

[Which Tyler]

Well - you know those evacuation corridors Russia agreed to, for the refugees to flow?

They're only allowed, and will only go unbombed, if they head towards Russia.

Where the corridors have been sewn with Russian landmines.

It's almost like he doesn't actually want a ceasefire, and isn't interested in humanitarianism.

Almost

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60635927?%20Red%20Cross%20says%262022-03-07T08%3A47%3A05.732Z&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:db771701-6dc4-4ec6-80c5-bf4be97ab054

 

[Which Tyler]

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Confirmed reports on Russian terms. So not even wanting Kharkiv?

Russia will stop 'in a moment' if Ukraine meets terms - Kremlin

Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt military operations "in a moment" if Kyiv meets a list of conditions, the Kremlin spokesman said on Monday.

www.reuters.com

Ukraine should agree to this if the following can be agreed in writing:

- full indefinite sanctions against Russia with no easing caused by 'peace' to ensure they cannot strengthen enough to attack again
- Ukraine can militarise fully as a neutral state
- economic and military regeneration of Ukraine by NATO states to make it a powerful buffer
- accelerated EU membership for Ukraine.

And the following is understood but unwritten:

- the agreement is at gunpoint and can be ripped up and renegotiated when Putin is replaced in exchange for a lifting of sanctions (after all, Russian disregard for the 1994 Bucharest agreement recognising Ukrainian boundaries has been disregarded)

Given the appalling level of assault ongoing these are mild Russian terms. Almost showing weakness. If this was the genuine objective of the military action then Putin is even more of a pillock than I thought. Destroy your economy and diplomatic reputation for a bit more Donetsk and Luhansk and increased security from the fantasy of NATO aggression? Leaving Russian speakers elsewhere in Ukraine under the thumb of the Jewish Nazis aligned to Islamic terrorism? Leaving Russian Kaliningrad surrounded on all sides by NATO and EU states. Leaving Ukraine to develop nukes!?

What a complete knob of a human being. Really, this is the most pathetic bit of diplomatic activity in the 21st century. And its had some stiff competition. This position reduces the threat of world war, so let's cling to that.

I won't blame Ukraine if they accept or reject this, but if I'm Zelensky I try and secure the above and quickly accept. He should use this as a negotiating tool to extract a Marshall Plan out of the US and EU as that is the only way he'll be able to sell defeat domestically so early into the war.

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

I feel like Ukraine has to accept. I was thinking that NATO would have to step in at some point to meet Russia outside of NATO territory. IDK how much you can trust Russia but at some point this becomes more of a negotiation between NATO and Russia than Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine is in a really tough spot.

 

[Amiga500]

The Russians are fcked. Putin is trying for peace now from a position of relative strength.

Wind on another week and they'll be outta diesel. Probably artillery rounds too.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Re-reading it I don't even think they want more territory in Donbas, just independence for the 2014 breakaway borders. It is the weakest offer Russia could make without domestic humiliation and I cannot believe they've made it public. There must be something they aren't saying (like Ukraine can't join EU and must remain demilitarised) that would ensure Ukraine would be an emasculated nation. Or it must be conditional on all sanctions being lifted (which shouldn't happen and isnt Ukraine's gift to give).

Ukraine must insist on Donbas not being able to merge with Russia so that it can be won back in future (hopefully via economic incentives offered by a prosperous Ukraine). Some economic or military top brass have been bending Putin's ear methinks about widespread unhappiness because the military gains are accelerating east of Kyiv and into Donbas also, so the purely military case remains strong.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

The Russians are fcked. Putin is trying for peace now from a position of relative strength.

Wind on another week and they'll be outta diesel. Probably artillery rounds too.

I'd be tempted to give it a week or two (conditional on Polish jets and the prospect of a counterattack) because now Russia have put these comparatively modest (but still horrible) terms on the table they can't just change their diplomatic position next week and say 'actually, we want Kyiv after all'. That would make them look even worse and more stupid. There is a reason you negotiate behind closed doors.

But I suppose they could say we want the entire Donbas next week and militarily they won't be far off it by then (see AlJazeera map below). Horrible decision to make for Ukraine but much less unreasonable than the rumoured 'we take everything east of Dnieper and install puppets in the west'.

Latest Ukraine updates: UN urges safe passage for civilians

Russia-Ukraine news from March 7: Kyiv says Russian shelling is preventing evacuation of civilians and delivery of aid.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Welsh Exile]

The Russians are fcked. Putin is trying for peace now from a position of relative strength.

Wind on another week and they'll be outta diesel. Probably artillery rounds too.

Agree. Their demands are slipping and by the next round will fall further. The longer this goes on the worse for Russia. Just a shame that its coming at a horrible cost for the Ukranian people.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

The suggestion is that complete demilitarisation of Ukraine as an ongoing status is a condition. If so, it's not a serious offer at all and just playing to the gallery.

It might explain why Zelensky was talking about multinational troops based in Ukraine (including China!) as a security guarantee from repeat invasion if NATO is off the table.

Russia managed to annoy its ally Iran today (for hijacking the Iranian nuclear talks with personal concerns) and Russia's other ally Hungary has agreed for weapons to pass through its territory for use in Ukraine against Russia as long as it passes through another NATO nation first. Those two are more pro Russia than China is any day of the week but are hacked off, so the mind boggles what China is saying behind the scenes.

 

[Amiga500]

so the mind boggles what China is saying behind the scenes.

I think when the Russians mooted the idea of the Chinese bank acting as an interface from them to the rest of the world, they were told something that rhymes with "fukk off".

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Russian gymnast with ‘Z’ symbol on podium next to Ukrainian faces long ban

Gymnastics’ governing body has condemned the ‘shocking behaviour’ of Russian gymnast Ivan Kuliak, who now faces a lengthy ban for wearing a symbol in support of the invasion of Ukraine at a World Cup event

www.theguardian.com

What a ******.

 

[BPM]

Yep. I’m amazed the Ukrainian guy didn’t smack him.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Coming third in gymnastics and doing that, no wonder the start of their invasion has been a pile of shite. The Russians have gone soft.

 

[Which Tyler]

 

[Amiga500]

I see the lads in the pale have declared a Holy Jihad on the Russians.

Warriors bearing the latest in sophisticated Ecclesiastical equipment assaulted the Russian embassy earlier.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I see the lads in the pale have declared a Holy Jihad on the Russians.

Warriors bearing the latest in sophisticated Ecclesiastical equipment assaulted the Russian embassy earlier.

The motivation is yet to be confirmed, we'll have to wait for Confirmation.

 

[Amiga500]

The motivation is yet to be confirmed, we'll have to wait for Confirmation.

Has there been a confession yet?

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

In weirder news there is an imminent election in South Korea. The opposition Conservatives got their stuffy candidate livened up by making an AI deepfake version of him with charisma and punchy delivery, and getting that scripted video version of him to do various adverts and even answer questions.

The rival from the ruling Liberal party responded with a deepfake version of himself spouting localised campaign pledges and a campaign promise to reduce the cost of hair loss treatments.

The Conservative AI guy is winning over the hair loss champion. 'Sir' Keir needs to get an AI version pronto.

South Korea candidates woo young voters with 'deepfakes,' hair insurance

South Korean presidential candidate Yoon Suk-yeol got a boost on Thursday when a rival dropped out, but if the conservative former prosecutor wins next week, it may also be thanks to "deepfake" avatars and viral short videos.

www.reuters.com