A Political Thread

[Ragey Erasmus]

I think a large chunk of those who did vote leave saw it a giant middle finger to the establishment that they feel has left them behind time and time again, probably not helped by David Cameron being in the Remain camp.

Problem is they've probably stuck it to the wrong establishment...

Be interesting to see how this affects the polls in Wales, especially with Plaid appearing to be on the up in the latest polls.

It wasn't helped that the supposed leaders of remain had been making the EU the scapegoat for the past few years, it made their claims that the EU was actually good sound very hollow.

 

[Amiga500]

I see BMW and Toyota now warning of the dangers of no-deal Brexit. Strong & Steady at the tiller keep steering for the big whirlpool ahead though.


Cue the windy lickers arriving in with their usual rebuttal; #ProjectDelusion

 

[Reiser99]

Apparently May has actually got some sort of legal deal on the backstop. Not 100% sure what it is exactly and if it is enough to get the deal through parliament, but it's more than I ever expected.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47533164

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Doesn't a backstop mean she's lost the DUP now?
So would need the entirety of the conservative party plus a handful of labour/snp to pass something?
I can't see that happening


Edit:
Starmer saying nothing has really changed, May just spinning it

 

[Reiser99]

No idea yet tbh. I think you're right about the DUP if they stick to what they said. They want no backstop at all.

Apparently people are waiting for the attorney general's opinion on how legally binding it is.

 

[General Melchett]

I think the crux of it is that there is now wording to ensure that the UK won't be trapped in the backstop indefinitely (and thus tied to the EU) like was the potentially the case with the last deal.

Word is that the EU absolutely won't enter into more negotiations after this and so if it doesn't get through tonight then it's No deal or Article 50 extension to buy more time. I reckon it will still get rejected but by a reduced margin.

 

[ncurd]

I still think it will struggle through, it basically amounts to an agreement we can take them to court if they try to keep us in the backstop indefinitely.

The problem is if we don't propose something that satisfies the Good Friday Agreement I suspect that will take precedent.

Basically I think it will take some MP's claiming it's something it's not as way angling their way to vote for it.

 

[ncurd]

Word is that the EU absolutely won't enter into more negotiations after this and so if it doesn't get through tonight then it's No deal or Article 50 extension to buy more time. I reckon it will still get rejected but by a reduced margin.

Does anyone know when No Deal get voted down tomorrow if the MP's don't vote for an extension on Thursday what the F happens?

 

[ncurd]

https://twitter.com/jonsnowC4/status/1105379846752854016

Because that ended well for Tony Blair

 

[Which Tyler]

https://twitter.com/jonsnowC4/status/1105379846752854016

Because that ended well for Tony Blair

Well, when the prime minister does it, that means that it is not illegal

 

[General Melchett]

Does anyone know when No Deal get voted down tomorrow if the MP's don't vote for an extension on Thursday what the F happens?

We're into the abyss. It depends on the wording of the ruling out No deal motion and the sequence upon which the motions are voted on. I think the only way out is to combine the Article 50 extension v No Deal option into one motion so that it's either one or the other otherwise no-one will know which option trumps the other.

 

[Dai Yorkshire]

Does anyone know when No Deal get voted down tomorrow if the MP's don't vote for an extension on Thursday what the F happens?

no deal is the law even if it gets voted down, no deal will still be on the table.

 

[General Melchett]

no deal is the law even if it gets voted down, no deal will still be on the table.

Not if they pass new legislation (on the back of a successful motion) that overrides the current default position of no deal.

 

[Which Tyler]

In a move that will surprise nobody, the ERG have decided that, as the deal hasn't changed one iota; nor has their position on it - urging it's members to vote against.

It really is All or Nothing for them!

ETA: Looks like DUP have said much the same - so no way on earth that this passes.
So the only question left, is will the motion be rejected, or will May decide not to have a vote after all, and run the clock down some more.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

100% run down the clock.

 

[Which Tyler]

Of course, another question has just ocurred to me - Phillip May has arrived in the Commons Gallery - might she actually step down if defeated this time?

100% run down the clock.

Playing it safe then Tigs. Certainly what the form book suggests

 

[General Melchett]

The Government under May are basically paralysed now that the ERG have taken advantage of her reduced majority and are voting against her at will. It basically wipes out the slim majority gained through the confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP. I have a feeling she might quit in the next day or two with a quick leadership election and general election following on from Article 50 being extended. Her final two finger salute to the ERG who ousted her would be to jeopardise Brexit and extend article 50.

 

[Which Tyler]

Talk of a general election being her preferred "get of jail free" card - to restart the paralysis and up-fuckery in another 6 weeks.
6 weeks of can kicking I hear? never!

 

[ncurd]

Yup GE throughout the Conservative party I hear, Labour will back them.

So I suspect the following,

Deal Voted down tonight
No Deal Voted down tommorow.
Article 50 extended Thursday, May resigns.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Great......................

Can't wait to have another **** show of a vote.....