[COVID-19] General Discussion

[ncurd]

Unless you believe that (i) the current case numbers are incorrect or (ii) there will be a change in infection rates due to some reason (please feel free to outline it) then its a matter of days from sh|t hitting the fan.

If we are a matter of days from the **** hitting the fan, these events will be cancelled before the weekend but they'll have limited X days of true panic. Because lets be honest the great soap and toilet roll shortages of 2020 is nothing when this stuff truly escalates.

But that also assumes the **** will hit the fans in terms of complete uncontrolled infection rate.

Lets look at us V Italy,

Italy were at 320 cases on 25th Feb about 2 weeks ago, however that was after 5 days of insane growth from 3. Where as the growth in the UK has been far more steady taking over a month (31 days) to go from the level Italy was to what it was 2 week ago.

On very surface level analysis (and I'd like to repeat I'm not an expert I have no idea how these models work) that suggests the virus is being controlled to some degree. We've just had the lowest confirmed increase in % for a week, whilst Italy haven't hot that low since their crisis started.

Now of course Italy's obviously were too slow to respond only really reaccting this weekend. We know if the UK waits too long we'll be in the same situation as Italy, I'm definitely expecting restrictions and advise at some point but I'm unsure if we need to hit the panic button yet.

 

[ncurd]

To give a tiny bit more context the first confirmed cases in Italy and the UK were the same day.

 

[allyson dalyon]

Self explanatory.

Sporting events being cancelled all over the place. Two Pro14 games for this weekend have been cancelled. Numerous Serie A games have been cancelled.

Hard to see how the Italy v England game can go ahead in Rome.

Could they move it to Twickenham? Is that still advisable - or are the chances of folks from Italy unknowingly carrying the virus to UK too high?


I suppose most recent parallel would be foot n mouth - but IIRC the whole tournament was shifted - not just one match.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

To give a tiny bit more context the first confirmed cases in Italy and the UK were the same day.

TAB Hypothesis: Three cheek kisses briefly makes you immune to the Coronavirus.

Rationale: In Italy they kiss twice as a greeting and they're ******, France they kiss three times and they're considerably less ******.

Stats

 

[AlRums]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51800564

 

[Amiga500]

Lets look at us V Italy,

Italy were at 320 cases on 25th Feb about 2 weeks ago, however that was after 5 days of insane growth from 3. Where as the growth in the UK has been far more steady taking over a month (31 days) to go from the level Italy was to what it was 2 week ago.

UK trend
Date: nCases
2020-02-27: 15
2020-02-28: 20
2020-02-29: 21
2020-03-01: 35
2020-03-02: 39
2020-03-03: 51
2020-03-04: 85
2020-03-05: 115
2020-03-06: 163
2020-03-07: 209
2020-03-08: 273
2020-03-09: 368

Yesterday was a 35% increase, which was higher than all but 6th, 4th & 1st March. Average is 35% growth day on day.

The UK avoided, probably more through luck than design, the fast explosion Italy had at the start, but since then growth is similar (from 23rd March onward, Italy's average growth has been 36% day on day).

If the UK had severe and strictly enforced quarantine, we might have kept it at the low levels seen initially.

I'm definitely expecting restrictions and advise at some point but I'm unsure if we need to hit the panic button yet.

I'd rather have a degree of panic and get on top of it early than try to avoid absolute panic and disaster later.

 

[ncurd]

Where did you get 368 from? Its 319....

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Templ...break_data/United_Kingdom_medical_cases_chart

Anyway a week ago you were saying extreme measures weren't required you just wanted sporting events cancelled.

Plus how is 319 cases anything but low levels? Its 0.000004% of the population and there are no concentrated areas.

Seriously get a grip, there's going to be a point where more extreme measures are required but at the moment they'd probably be an overeaction.

 

[Reiser99]

My issue is that there has been contradictory information from the authorities about whether there is community transmission or not. Clearly there is with people infected who haven't left the country, but it's not widespread yet. I don't think expert advice is unanimous at all. However it's a difficult job balancing protection and not causing panic. Time will tell if the government gets it right.

 

[ncurd]

My issue is that there has been contradictory information from the authorities about whether there is community transmission or not. Clearly there is with people infected who haven't left the country, but it's not widespread yet. I don't think expert advice is unanimous at all. However it's a difficult job balancing protection and not causing panic. Time will tell if the government gets it right.

Has there been contradictory information? I thought the government through Matt Hancock had confirmed it.

Unaminous is incorrect terminology to what I'm saying nobody (as far as I'm aware) who could considered an expert is openly saying the government should be taking more extreme measures at this present time. That's very different to them agreeing with the current stance taken, at the moment it appears as a collective they have agreed to show a united front. I would not expect that to last forever but until it does even if they think the government is wrong they clearly do not feel it is that urgent to be the first to speak out.

I think short term critical thing to look out for are the 500 case and 1000 case mark, how soon they occur or if they sudden spike in a condensed area. Those are potential trigger points.

 

[ncurd]

My issue is that there has been contradictory information from the authorities about whether there is community transmission or not.

So not Hancock but the UK's Chief Medical Officer
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51683428.html

 

[Amiga500]

Where did you get 368 from? Its 319....

That is a good question! I was flummoxed till I realised this is the 9th - I have erred in putting it up, it should have stopped at the 8th. Which was a growth of 31%, which was indeed lower than most days so far.


My figure for today is based on an extrapolation from ongoing trends. 319 might be the number right now, but it won't be the figure at midnight tonight.

Anyway a week ago you were saying extreme measures weren't required you just wanted sporting events cancelled.

Quote me where I said I just wanted sporting events cancelled please.
I was, and still am, in favour of much more drastic measures than currently taken being implemented.

Plus how is 319 cases anything but low levels? Its 0.000004% of the population and there are no concentrated areas.
Seriously get a grip, there's going to be a point where more extreme measures are required but at the moment they'd probably be an overeaction.

Its not linear. The more have it, the faster it spreads.

273 had it yesterday. At current rates:
7 days ~2,200
14 days ~18,000
21 days ~150,000
28 days ~1,200,000
35 days ~10,000000
42 days ~everyone


The current rate cannot be allowed to continue. Even if they manage to drop it to 20% a day, that still means in a month ~65,000 people have it and in 2 months 15.5 million have it.

 

[FLOBALOB]

I'm confused.
"It is now accepted the virus will spread in a "significant way" in the UK, a spokesman for the PM says.
Yet absolutely nothing is being done to try to slow it down, which means more people will die a lot quicker.
What am i missing?

 

[ncurd]

and I'm not exactly hiding away nor supporting extreme isolation - but there is a leap from that to advocating mass gatherings.

Anyway, yes your numbers are correct if rates stay the same but that assumes a couple of things.

1) The rates will stay the same and any measures including awareness of washing hands, self-isolation etc. have little effect on infection rate. Of which we have little data as a public to know if it is having an effect as they'll be a delay between measures being taken and it effecting the rate of infection.

2) The government won't take more extreme measures that will slow down the rate.

3) That we actually have enough people infected to actually work out a decent rate of infection within the UK we are talking an extremely small sample size.


You saw the diagram posted earlier? They'll almost certainly have a plan where on the curve do certain things need to happen to slow down the extreme out of control scenario.

I think the coming days are key and as noted I'm expecting more extreme measures to be taken at some point I just don't think 319 cases is anywhere near enough.

 

[FLOBALOB]

I think the coming days are key and as noted I'm expecting more extreme measures to be taken at some point I just don't think 319 cases is anywhere near enough.

I'm not sure how many you think is enough but its not in line with what the WHO have said;

"We need to remember that with decisive, early action, we can slow down the #coronavirus and prevent infections. Among those who are infected, most will recover."

 

[Amiga500]

Anyway, yes your numbers are correct if rates stay the same but that assumes a couple of things.

1) The rates will stay the same and any measures including awareness of washing hands, self-isolation etc. have little effect on infection rate. Of which we have little data as a public to know if it is having an effect as they'll be a delay between measures being taken and it effecting the rate of infection.

2) The government won't take more extreme measures that will slow down the rate.

3) That we actually have enough people infected to actually work out a decent rate of infection within the UK we are talking an extremely small sample size.


You saw the diagram posted earlier? They'll almost certainly have a plan where on the curve do certain things need to happen to slow down the extreme out of control scenario.

I think the coming days are key and as noted I'm expecting more extreme measures to be taken at some point I just don't think 319 cases is anywhere near enough.

By extreme isolation I literally mean everyone hiding in their room for 6 weeks! I do not view stopping air travel to infected countries as extreme isolation!!


My whole rationale was based on stopping it getting to rates beyond which the NHS can cope. That means (or meant, its probably at least 2 weeks too late now) strict quarantine for anyone coming in from the likes of Italy - and not a measly 2 week quarantine either.

You mentioned earlier about the Italian explosion early on - that was I believe caused by someone with mild symptoms moving around several hospitals and spreading it.

Even with it in country now, if they took drastic measures* now they could get very lucky and pull it back down to more or less just those entering the country, with perhaps a small pocket here or ther. In a weeks time, that won't be an option, instead we'll be faced with anything between 6-18 months of mass infection.

*measures include:
- ban on mass gatherings,
- triaged quarantine centres for those with contact history with those who have contacted known infected (i.e. a 2nd layer to immediate contacts); self-isolation is going to work as there are too many idiots in the country [for evidence, the current PM was voted in by majority]
- ban on travel to Italy, China, South Korea and soon most of Europe

 

[ncurd]

I'm not sure how many you think is enough but its not in line with what the WHO have said;

"We need to remember that with decisive, early action, we can slow down the #coronavirus and prevent infections. Among those who are infected, most will recover."

That's fair, my simple retort is what does WHO constitute as early and decisive? just because you don't think the UK's current response is decivie or early enough doesn't mean it is not. Can someone actually quote me an actual expert that is saying the UK is not responding sensibly?

Some very basic maths that I have no idea this is actually statistically significant because I don't know what I;m talking about, still interesting thought exercise but lets look at 3 day average since the UK announced its plans (03/03/2020).

1st - 3rd: 36.33%
2nd to 4th: 36%
3rd to 5th: 44%
4th to 6th: 47.6%
5th to 7th: 34.3%
6th to 8th: 33%
7th to 9th: 24.6%

Now I'm not stupid enough to suggest it will keep going down I honestly don't think the data is meaningful enough.


On your measures you are absolutely right some idiots won't self isolate. But are enough people heeding that advise? Remember the goal isn't to stop people getting infected because that is considered currently impossible but to slow down the rate enough.
Same with travel known hotspots have advisements to stop all non essential travel, you are advocating a step above but is what is doing enough?
Mass gatherings, honestly I think mass transit in public systems are way more problematic.

 

[FLOBALOB]

. Can someone actually quote me an actual expert that is saying the UK is not responding sensibly?

I don't think you need to be any sort of expert .
.Just applying common sense , a basic grasp of simple maths, and an understanding of whats happened in Italy is all that is needed.

 

[ncurd]

I don't think you need to be any sort of expert .
.Just applying common sense , a basic grasp of simple maths, and an understanding of whats happened in Italy is all that is needed.

So like Amiga you know better than experts in their field.

Why do you think scientists consistently speak out against Brexit, Climate Change etc. but you can't find me a single person with expertise warning against the governments current course of action.

I'm really not asking a lot here guys I could easily scare myself with Maths and looking at Italy but my basic smell test of if the response is wrong of seeing what experts are saying there is barely a whiff.

 

[FLOBALOB]

So like Amiga you know better than experts in their field.

Why do you think scientists consistently speak out against Brexit, Climate Change etc. but you can't find me a single person with expertise warning against the governments current course of action.

I'm really not asking a lot here guys I could easily scare myself with Maths and looking at Italy but my basic smell test of if the response is wrong of seeing what experts are saying there is barely a whiff.

On the contrary .I'm in agreement with the WHO regarding early and decisive action.

 

[ncurd]

On the contrary .I'm in agreement with the WHO regarding early and decisive action.

But what are WHO describing as early and decisive action? I've had a brief look at their website and read the twitter feed from their press conference which you quoted one sentence from (https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1237049720259952641) there is nothing to suggest the UK are not taking the measures required at the present time.

In fact they list the USA by name as being prepared and taking actions which honestly sounds far more far-fetched than the UK.

Italy is a precautionary tale of not acting quickly or decisively enough absolutely but we have no evidence to suggest the UK is not. We'll probably see in two weeks to a month.