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[COVID-19] General Discussion

Amiga500

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So like Amiga you know better than experts in their field.
So far, the "experts in their field" aren't doing a very f**king good job are they?

Right now, there is absolutely nothing to suggest we are not on the same trajectory as Italy.

Meanwhile, its more of the same from the "experts in their field" because its worked so stunningly well to date.


If they change their record, I might change my opinion.
 

ncurd

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Yeah that's it's I've argued in good faith far longer than I should have but now your just being an arrogant twat who thinks he knows better. No better than a climate change denier.
 

TommiG88

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So far, the "experts in their field" aren't doing a very f**king good job are they?

Right now, there is absolutely nothing to suggest we are not on the same trajectory as Italy.

Meanwhile, its more of the same from the "experts in their field" because its worked so stunningly well to date.


If they change their record, I might change my opinion.
Hope you’ve stocked up on toilet rolls.
 

FLOBALOB

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The fact that 'experts' think that not cancelling Cheltenham is a good idea doesn't inspire confidence that they know what they're doing IMO.
 

ncurd

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The fact that 'experts' think that not cancelling Cheltenham is a good idea doesn't inspire confidence that they know what they're doing IMO.
Honestly the Cheltenham thing is baffling due to being a international event and one case in Cheltenham itself. No different to Italy matches etc. But I haven't seen a reasoned arguement other than 'I think I know better' and none of it from anyone with credentials in this area of science.

I know this is age of the internet and lots of people like to know a lot of things. But this is really an area where we as the general public are ignorant like I say I'm looking out dissenting opinion from people who do know what they are talking about. Rather than idiots buying loo roll.
 

Yoshimitsu

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One of the protagonists on this thread is going to be wrong. Personally I hope it's everybody but ncurd.

However, there are dissenting voices like this bloke:


and this bloke


The lack of measures to manage travel to / from Italy is at the very least worrying. Seriously we're training flight crew to look out for Covid-19..... At worst? Negligent in my opinion. The decisions of the political class are balancing things that matter to them.

Public health
Economic panic
Supply chains
Social cohesion

Virologists are only of any real use for the first of these and even then within bounds they understand. I suspect in this day and age anyone contracted to advise the government is also obliged not to release data / information to the contrary into the public arena.

People in the U.K are now dying of Covid-19 (actually that's not 100% true people are dying that have it). The message currently is carry on as normal and wash your hands more often. Should this go pear shaped when Boris says "there's nothing more that could have been done" just remember what actually was and when. There's a balance playing out here and it's £ vs human life.

As I said. Here's hoping that ncurd's experts are right and we're all worrying over nothing (or not the apocalypse at least). Currently the mortality rate in Italy is over 3% and their ICU capability is overwhelmed. I really don't want to see that in the U.K.
 
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ncurd

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I'll take a proper watch later but just wanted to say thank you. I'm not against dissenting opinion just I get frustrated with well their wrong because I have a calculator. So sharing links of other people who do what they are talking is absolutely is fair enough and all I asked for.


I should state the people I know and seen absolutely think this a serious and it's going to get worse than where we are currently. They just aren't saying the government needs to ramp up what they are doing in regards to current situation. It's difference between saying lock everything down now and lock everything down once it's out of control like Northern Italy. They are just of opinion those measures aren't required yet.
 

Amiga500

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Hope you’ve stocked up on toilet rolls.
Nah, that panic will subside fairly quickly over the next week or two when the world doesn't stop.

Its probably mid to end April when the sh|t will hit the fan.
 

ncurd

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Reality is the current question is at 319 cases would taking more extreme measures make enough of a discernable impact proportional to the disruption caused.

I don't know and I'm plucking numbers out of thin air but at the moment those measures could be put in place and predicted people who wouldn't get the infection could be like 2. It could be a lot more you might be able to halve the infection rate. And that's the data none of us have.

Sure they could people minds at ease but more likely cause further panic. It's risk V reward and I simply can't pretend to make an informed decision without knowing the facts.
 

Amiga500

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Yeah that's it's I've argued in good faith far longer than I should have but now your just being an arrogant twat who thinks he knows better. No better than a climate change denier.
Better to be able to look at numbers and spot that "this isn't working" than be a sheep and blindly follow the flock.



edit: The first acknowledged community transmission was on 1st March.

Safe to say it hasn't been decreasing day on day since!


editedit: Israel has now done what the UK should have at the least done. Blanket 14 day quarantine for all travellers into the country. Self quarantine, which ain't ideal, but a better step than symptoms only.
 

Amiga500

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https://twitter.com/silviast9/status/1236933818654896129

Silvia Stringhini

@silviast9


1/ I may be repeating myself, but I want to fight this sense of security that I see outside of the epicenters, as if nothing was going to happen "here". The media in Europe are reassuring, politicians are reassuring, while there's little to be reassured of. #COVID19 #coronavirus

2/This is the English translation of a post of another ICU physician in Bergamo, Dr. Daniele Macchini. Read until the end "After much thought about whether and what to write about what is happening to us, I felt that silence was not responsible.

3/ I will therefore try to convey to people far from our reality what we are living in Bergamo in these days of Covid-19 pandemic. I understand the need not to create panic, but when the message of the dangerousness of what is happening does not reach people I shudder.

4/ I myself watched with some amazement the reorganization of the entire hospital in the past week, when our current enemy was still in the shadows: the wards slowly "emptied", elective activitieswere interrupted, intensive care were freed up to create as many beds as possible.

5/ All this rapid transformation brought an atmosphere of silence and surreal emptiness to the corridors of the hospital that we did not yet understand, waiting for a war that was yet to begin and that many (including me) were not so sure would ever come with such ferocity.

6/ I still remember my night call a week ago when I was waiting for the results of a swab. When I think about it, my anxiety over one possible case seems almost ridiculous and unjustified, now that I've seen what's happening. Well, the situation now is dramatic to say the least.

7/ The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. But now that need for beds has arrived in all its drama. One after the other the departments that had been emptied fill up at an impressive pace.

8/ The boards with the names of the patients, of different colours depending on the operating unit, are now all red and instead of surgery you see the diagnosis, which is always the damned same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia.

9/ Now, explain to me which flu virus causes such a rapid drama. [post continues comparing covid19 to flu, link below]. And while there are still people who boast of not being afraid by ignoring directions, protesting because their normal routine is"temporarily" put in crisis,

10/ the epidemiological disaster is taking place. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.

11/ Cases are multiplying, we arrive at a rate of 15-20 admissions per day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the E.R. is collapsing.

12/ Reasons for the access always the same: fever and breathing difficulties, fever and cough, respiratory failure. Radiology reports always the same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia. All to be hospitalized.

13/ Someone already to be intubated and go to intensive care. For others it's too late... Every ventilator becomes like gold: those in operating theatres that have now suspended their non-urgent activity become intensive care places that did not exist before.

14/ The staff is exhausted. I saw the tiredness on faces that didn't know what it was despite the already exhausting workloads they had. I saw a solidarity of all of us, who never failed to go to our internist colleagues to ask "what can I do for you now?"

15/ Doctors who move beds and transfer patients, who administer therapies instead of nurses. Nurses with tears in their eyes because we can't save everyone, and the vital parameters of several patients at the same time reveal an already marked destiny.

16/ There are no more shifts, no more hours. Social life is suspended for us. We no longer see our families for fear of infecting them. Some of us have already become infected despite the protocols.

17/ Some of our colleagues who are infected also have infected relatives and some of their relatives are already struggling between life and death. So be patient, you can't go to the theatre, museums or the gym. Try to have pity on the myriad of old people you could exterminate.

18/ We just try to make ourselves useful. You should do the same: we influence the life a
d death of a few dozen people. You with yours, many more. Please share this message. We must spread the word to prevent what is happening here from happening all over Italy."

20/ I finish by saying that I really don't understand this war on panic. The only reason I see is mask shortages, but there's no mask on sale anymore. We don't have a lot of studies, but is it panic really worse than neglect and carelessness during an epidemic of this sort?
 

FLOBALOB

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One of the protagonists on this thread is going to be wrong. Personally I hope it's everybody but ncurd.

However, there are dissenting voices like this bloke:


and this bloke


The lack of measures to manage travel to / from Italy is at the very least worrying. Seriously we're training flight crew to look out for Covid-19..... At worst? Negligent in my opinion. The decisions of the political class are balancing things that matter to them.

Public health
Economic panic
Supply chains
Social cohesion

Virologists are only of any real use for the first of these and even then within bounds they understand. I suspect in this day and age anyone contracted to advise the government is also obliged not to release data / information to the contrary into the public arena.

People in the U.K are now dying of Covid-19 (actually that's not 100% true people are dying that have it). The message currently is carry on as normal and wash your hands more often. Should this go pear shaped when Boris says "there's nothing more that could have been done" just remember what actually was and when. There's a balance playing out here and it's £ vs human life.

As I said. Here's hoping that ncurd's experts are right and we're all worrying over nothing (or not the apocalypse at least). Currently the mortality rate in Italy is over 3% and their ICU capability is overwhelmed. I really don't want to see that in the U.K.

Both very good watches from 2 people putting across points in a controlled professional manner.

ncurd- The number of carriers will be a lot higher than 319 .
 

themole25

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Im with amiga and flob here. The nerds are just getting their revenge here by lying about the virus. They want all us alphas getting sick at the rugby so they can pick each other first in gym class.
 

ncurd

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Yup that's why it's really important that the UK (and other countries) strategy succeeds. The entire point is to get out the winter season and also stretch out cases so they don't overwhelm the NHS. The other part is so they can be far better prepared to handle a crisis the longer. There is also a faint chance a vaccine or less intrusive containment methods could be found that's being hopeful.

We aren't going to know if it succeeds for some time yet.
 

Yoshimitsu

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O.K. I hope people will take this in the spirit it's meant. I have no "facts" to offer over those presented up thread. I am however old enough to have seen governments sell the Falklands war, Iraq war 1, Iraq war 2, Afghanistan whilst not forgetting Kosovo and things like "the troubles" etc..

There is no single truth that would ever have allowed objective analysis at the time. General Belgrano? Either a significant threat or an ageing asset that could have been safely ignored. Bloody Sunday? Mass murder by British soldiers or reaction to armed agitators who shot at them? Gulf war 1 an answer to aggression by Saddam Hussein or an attempt to secure oil for future adventures / economic reasons? Gulf war 2 WMD or further imperialism / Bush's ego etc. etc.

With what we're currently facing it's not unreasonable to compare and contrast the actions of various governments. China locked down 11 million people (that's not insignificant). Having reacted slowly they clearly recognised an existential threat and imposed draconian measure to try and contain it. South Korea are on a war footing and have deployed significant resources to try and contain it (it looks like they are winning today). Italy are currently failing. Their infection growth curve is almost perfectly exponential and they seriously messed up their lockdown. They have now introduced measures to try and avoid that. Anyone with a passing knowledge of exponentiality knows that time is not your friend. Small numbers become big numbers very fast indeed. Simply doubling from 1 gives you over 1 million by day 20. Now it can't run like that because of many factors but you get the idea.

It's not beyond the realms of possibility that given the magnitude of the challenge that decisions have already been made. Shutting things down / cancelling events may indeed slow the rate of infection. However, flattening the curve only matters to the degree which you can ramp up resources to deal with it. If there's nothing you can do that will have any material affect then why do it? In fact given the fact that panic will reign should the truth become known then a convenient pretence of doing "something" might serve a greater purpose than actually doing anything.

I'm not saying that's what's happening here. However, the chances of me taking anything the government have to say at face value are practically zero at this point. Last week contradictory statements were made about where we were in terms of "containment" vs "delay". This week we've got Whitty stating that all respiratory issues should be subject to 7 day isolation (coming soon). We have people saying that mass gathering events aren't an issue yet other countries have already shut these down. Madrid being the latest to impose significant restrictions. We still have flights to the U.K. returning from Milan with zero screening. It's like no one cares.

As I stated previously waiting until things get really bad seems a poor strategy to me. I'm not willing to put my safety in the hands of the state and have prepared to a reasonable degree (loo roll smallest of problems)...

I sincerely hope that ncurd is right and the Government have judged this correctly in accordance with expert advice that's primarily based on the welfare of human beings.
 

Reiser99

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Has there been contradictory information? I thought the government through Matt Hancock had confirmed it.

Unaminous is incorrect terminology to what I'm saying nobody (as far as I'm aware) who could considered an expert is openly saying the government should be taking more extreme measures at this present time. That's very different to them agreeing with the current stance taken, at the moment it appears as a collective they have agreed to show a united front. I would not expect that to last forever but until it does even if they think the government is wrong they clearly do not feel it is that urgent to be the first to speak out.

I think short term critical thing to look out for are the 500 case and 1000 case mark, how soon they occur or if they sudden spike in a condensed area. Those are potential trigger points.
I believe it was last week when cases started to spike more than before and the first infections from no clear source started to occur. The chief medical officer said community transmission was occurring and the chief science officer (I believe) told the health select committee that it wasn't. It's inevitable that it will spread rapidly and be widespread, the question is how quickly. Based on increasing number of cases and the fact that people spread this without symptoms or before symptoms show, my gut feeling is that the government won't delay this until the summer.
 

Amiga500

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I sincerely hope that ncurd is right and the Government have judged this correctly in accordance with expert advice that's primarily based on the welfare of human beings.
I will never be more delighted to have been so utterly wrong than in this instance if it happens!
 

ncurd

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All fair, just to be clear I'm not saying the government is correct. They could be massively ******* it up, just my smell test of are they ignoring advice or heeding it says they are listening currently. That advice could be wrong but until I think they are actively ignoring advice or they hearing what they want to hear ala Iraq.

That said I'm expecting the situation to change in terms of UK response in days. This is a very real situation and Italy have shown what happens if you massively screw it up.
 
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