[COVID-19] General Discussion

[Bada-Bing!]

One issue is that you can't compare deaths until circumstances are similar. There is no point looking at flu deaths before the pandemic, because then the disease was pretty much allowed to go as it pleased barring people who had flu vaccinations. Covid deaths are occurring under circumstances that have never occurred when accurately measuring the impact of virus, No virus has ever been met with such a widespread, global response. Yes the conversation needs to happen, but comparing it to the flu now is pointless because it's not being treated like the flu.

You're right Covid is not like Flu. It Just gives us an easy comparison of a respiratory virus which also does kill people. Pre Covid annually this was between 23,500 and 10,500 so on average 17,000 deaths a year.

We are currently willing to accept around 36,500 deaths a year, if we are going by 100 deaths a day from Covid as normal and still have to factor in the complications of flu will add to this number, this winter.

 

[Reiser99]

Tbh I just think the government are doing their usual tactic of waiting for everyone to get apathetic and see it as normal. If the news and government are making a big issue of reporting it then it's not in people's minds and people very quickly move on. Unfortunately, one issue when it comes to humans is that they struggle to care or think about things in a big way if they don't directly affect them or regularly see it. They are relying on the majority of people caring more about getting back to normal and going on holiday than they do about deaths. As someone else said, it seems there is a number the government is willing to accept, but it's not a conversation happening wider in the public sphere.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Heard on the radio this morning that the NHS bods are recommending we go to "Plan B" (bring back masks, start using vaccine passports) before it's too late but the Government have said they'd rather bumble along and hope for the best...because that's worked so well in the past

 

[Reiser99]

Heard on the radio this morning that the NHS bods are recommending we go to "Plan B" (bring back masks, start using vaccine passports) before it's too late but the Government have said they'd rather bumble along and hope for the best...because that's worked so well in the past

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Covid: Bring back rules amid rising cases, urge NHS chiefs

But the business secretary says it is not time for "Plan B" and he wants to avoid further lockdowns.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I mean the way to avoid lockdowns would be to take measure now, and not wait until it's gotten too bad for minor adjustments to day-to-day life...?

It's not even like the suggestions are really outlandish - I believe NI still have the rules on mask wearing in a public place? And Wales and Scotland are both using vaccine passports?
Whereas England's cases are much worse and the Government guidelines are basically "If you see a dirty handrail, or toilet door handle - lick it!"

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Why take precautions to ensure no faecal matter is anywhere near a rapidly spinning air mover when you have the finest poo-off cleaning equipment, for those times when you really got a good spray.

 

[ncurd]

Someone's getting punchy

 

[Gavin]

I mean the way to avoid lockdowns would be to take measure now, and not wait until it's gotten too bad for minor adjustments to day-to-day life...?

It's not even like the suggestions are really outlandish - I believe NI still have the rules on mask wearing in a public place? And Wales and Scotland are both using vaccine passports?
Whereas England's cases are much worse and the Government guidelines are basically "If you see a dirty handrail, or toilet door handle - lick it!"

Yes, it's still a requirement that wear masks in shops, public transport etc in Northern Ireland.

Though think it's mainly down to the fact that the DUP and Sinn Féin can't agree on anything regarding Covid-19.

DUP are like the Conservatives, they want to open up everything

Sinn Féin (and other parties) are like Labour, they still want masks recommended and careful opening.

Nightclubs are only opening in Northern Ireland from 31st October

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Legitimate question for everyone who wants restrictions brought back - at what point do you stop, or do we just yo-yo for eternity?

If the endgame is eradication then that's the eternity option, so what is an acceptable level?

 

[TRF_Olyy]

so what is an acceptable level?

I'm not an expert, so I've got no idea - but I do know that the experts are freaking out over how quickly the rates are going up atm so I'd rather listen to their suggestions than the business secretary that the government wheeled out (because, as ncurd posted above, their science guys are not toeing the company line)
No one wants eternal restrictions, but everyone said at the time it looked like we were coming out of our restrictions to early and the science is now backing that up

The restrictions they're suggesting aren't anything major - England is the only country in the UK acting like everything is back to normal - with the exception of international travel I can't think of anything I can't do now that I couldn't do before the pandemic started

I'm not sure what restrictions are like elsewhere but I know my parents, in France, have far more restrictions atm (re: masks, covid passports) than we do, but have 10% the cases we do

 

[ncurd]

so what is an acceptable level?

Great question, no answer. From NHS related friends I get the feeling they are still in overworked stressed out environment and they've not really had a break from it even when numbers were further down than they currently are. One was saying that the pandemic is causing record numbers of people to leave healthcare entirely because of it. That's clearly not a sustainable model so we do need to drive numbers further down.

Where to I don't know and that's what my post was abut yesterday its up to leaders with far more knowledge than a bunch of random rugby fans to explain what acceptable numbers actually are.

As for yo-yoing, I think that's hear to stay we'll go through periods of restrictions and periods of none. Depending on what current levels are like the key thing is make those restrictions non-business/leisure limiting "work from home, if you can", masks, booster programs. That only works if you instigate them whilst numbers are low, the longer you wait the more restrictive the restrictions have to be.

We entered a lockdown on 4th January of this year for 2 months because the government wouldn't instigate enough restrictions the previous October for a shorter period of time. They also complete bungled Christmas for similar reasons.

I think some people do need accept the world has changed due to this and COVID isn't going away and to stop it going wildly out of control occasioanlly there will be some limitations on what you must do.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Legitimate question for everyone who wants restrictions brought back - at what point do you stop, or do we just yo-yo for eternity?

If the endgame is eradication then that's the eternity option, so what is an acceptable level?

Restrictions are aligned to case numbers rising, hospitalisations and deaths. And yes, if they keep rising you keep the restrictions until they come down.

For me personally I do not think, getting vaccinated, wearing a mask, ventilating buildings, keeping social distance and working from home (I am lucky that my work allows me to) i am in favour of covid passports, is that much of a sacrifice. We know how to mitigate it, just needs a collective effort.

Currently our case rates are unacceptable. 100+ deaths average leading to 36,500 deaths a year is more than double that when flu kills on average pre Covid, is unacceptable. People unvaccinated and blocking up ICU beds is unacceptable.

The flip question for anti vaxxers and anti lockdown is how do they propose mitigating/ reducing Covid?

We know now that there is no zero covid, even NZ have realised it.

But doesn't mean we can't have vaccination plus restrictions.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Legitimate question for everyone who wants restrictions brought back - at what point do you stop, or do we just yo-yo for eternity?

If the endgame is eradication then that's the eternity option, so what is an acceptable level?

I imagine it's getting to a stage where it isn't putting the healthcare system under too much strain. It seems in this country that we haven't learned that the sticking our head in the sand and reacting later is a really bad plan. What is happening now is a repeat of what happened before, namely opening up early and having the virus run rampant again. Perhaps we should put the effort into doing the job properly? I don't think we will eliminate Covid but I think the cavalier attitude of the people and government have not helped the situation 1 bit.

If refusing to take action until it was too late failed the first few times, why would it succeed now? Ultimately I don't see the motive for health professionals to suggest this if it wasn't deemed necessary. At some point we will have to learn to live with it though.

 

[ncurd]

Should note I went to a couple of live shows last week (and the cinema). We were asked to show our vaccination/test status at each through the NHS app, however there were still the following issues.

• Despite each place asking for masks to be worn, few people inside did, there was zero enforcement apart from some holding of signs.
• One place let us in despite my wife not bringing up her status on the app in time.
• Nobody scanned the QR code for verification, would be pretty easy to take screenshot and change names/dates.
• The cinema didn't check anything (actually been to four different ones since this began all with the same attitude).

Thankfully we didn't catch anything but it was obvious to anyone thinking our risk was high.

 

[ncurd]

 

[Reiser99]

Legitimate question for everyone who wants restrictions brought back - at what point do you stop, or do we just yo-yo for eternity?

If the endgame is eradication then that's the eternity option, so what is an acceptable level?

Problem is still that if there are zero restrictions, what will the death rate/hospitalisation rate be? As far as I'm aware it will still be far higher than the flu. The only reason that at times numbers have been as low or lower than flu deaths is when restrictions have been in place. As I said above, you can't compare the flu and covid directly because the response has been completely different. The other issue is that the vaccine while helping, is definitely not a magic bullet. Further there are still mutations to worry about.

For me the issue is of yo-yoing is the governments fault, because it rushes to open up to get the economy going and then waits until it has to lockdown leading to longer periods and the yo-yo effect. They still haven't put forward a long-term plan for how to live with covid. Instead they are adding or taking away restrictions and hoping things don't get bad. On top their message to the public has almost been that it's basically over and everything is back to normal, so of course people are not being as cautious as they should. This also makes it harder to bring back restrictions.

For me we need to accept that there will need to be some level of restrictions for the foreseeable future until we have more data on the virus and we have a clear system in place to keep cases low enough, what ever that level is that people find acceptable. However, this means putting a long term plan in place and realistically keeping minor restrictions like masks in place longer. Instead of focusing the blame on those who want restrictions back because things are getting worse, instead focus that blame on a government who has no clear, long-term strategy for how to live with the virus and whose decisions are responsible for the yo-yoing.

I'll echo @The_Blindside what is acceptable to you before restrictions have to be brought back? Are you happy to keep things open and see what happens when the virus is allowed to spread unchecked, because that's the other extreme to restrictions? It's clear we aren't at a point to just leave the virus to itself and just rely on vaccinations, so what would be your solution to have people out and about and also keep cases low?

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

It was announced yesterday that we're reducing restrictions further. Full stadia, clubs and late bars etc...

It essentially sounds like what the UK have now except we still have to wear masks on public transport, shops, communal office areas etc... We have a higher vaccine uptake but worse ICU facilities. Hopefully the dam doesn't burst and this is the beginning of relatively normal and free living with covid times.

 

[Which Tyler]

I'm sure I've posted this before; but there's a definite feeling of Deja Vu - even with vaccines reducing the severity of recommended actions (we're talking about mild restrictions, not lockdowns at the moment).

 

[Which Tyler]