[ITM Cup] Round 2

[TRF Mr Fish]

ROUND 2

21/08 - North Harbour v Southland

North Harbour: Robbie Robinson, David Raikuna, Nafi Tuitavake, Pita Ahki, Tevita Li, Matt McGahan, Bryn Hall (c), Jim Tuitaviti, Zak Judge, Jordan Manihera, Hayden Triggs, Mike Farmer, Sione Mafileo, James Parsons, Greg Pleasants Tate. Reserves: Ray Niuia, Franck Fricconet, Brandon Nansen, Mario Ozich, David Bason, Daniel Halangahu, Luke Devcich.

Southland: Junior Ngaluafe, Lolo Loco, Cardiff Vaega, Willis Halaholo, Mark Jackman, Lima Sopoaga, Scott Eade, Tim Boys, Elliot Dixon, Bill Fukofuka, Michael Fatialofa, Josh Bekhuis, JP Koen, Tua Tuapati, Jamie Mackintosh (c). Reserves: Bryan Milne, Jamie Verran, Tayler Adams, Alex Taylor, Michael Stewart, Tony Keresoma, Dillan Halaholo.

22/08 - Waikato v Canterbury

Waikato: Albert Nikoro, Declan O'Donnell, Jordan Payne, Anton Lienert-Brown, Joe Webber, Damian McKenzie, Brad Weber (c), Adam Burn, Zak Hohneck, Whetu Douglas, David Morgan, Nick Ross, Ben Tameifuna, Brayden Mitchell, Loni Uhila. Reserves: Hame Faiva, James McGougan, Josh Tyrell, Marty Holah, Harrison Levien, Wharenui Hawera, Shayne Anderson.

Canterbury: Richie Mo'unga, Patrick Osborne, Adam Whitelock, Rob Thompson, Johnny McNicholl, Tyler Bleyendaal, Willi Heinz (c), Luke Whitelock, Jed Brown, Matt Todd, Scott Barrett, Matt Symons, Nepo Laulala, Codie Taylor, Alex Hodgman. Reserves: Ben Funnell, Siate Tokolahi, Joel Everson, Tom Sanders, Mitchell Drummond, Jack Goodhue, Milford Keresoma.

22/08 - Hawke's Bay v Taranaki

Hawke's Bay: Ryan Tongia, Richard Buckman, Robbie Fruean, Andrew Horrell, Mikey Vuicakau, Ihaia West, Chris Eaton, Gareth Evans, Brendan O'Connor (c), Tony Lamborn, Mark Abbott, Michael Allardice, Jason Marshall, Ash Dixon, Brendon Edmonds. Reserves: Ged Robinson, Adrian Barone, Tom Parsons, Trent Boswell-Wakefield, Ellery Wilson, Jason Shoemark, Matt Berquist.

Taranaki: Codey Rei, Seta Tamanivalu, Charlie Ngatai, James Marshall (c), Waisake Naholo, Marty McKenzie, Jamison Gibson-Park, Blade Thomson, Berny Hall, Mitchell Crosswell, James Broadhurst, Riki Hoeata, Angus Ta'avao, Rhys Marshall, Mitchell Graham. Reserves: Timo Tutavaha, Sione Lea, Leighton Price, Doug Tietjens, Warwick Lahmert, Jackson Ormond, Beaudein Waaka.

23/08 - Northland v Wellington

Wellington: Jason Woodward, Ambrose Curtis, Ope Peleseuma, Shaun Treeby, Tau Mamea, James So'oialo, Frae Wilson, Brad Shields (c), Adam Hill, Pau Halafihi, Vaea Fifita, Kaipati Gaualofa, Eric Sione, Motu Matu'u, Reggie Goodes. Reserves: Tolu Fahamokioa, Taniela Koroi, James Wall, Henry Stowers, Sheridan Rangihuna, Fa'atonu Fili, Chase Tiatia.

23/08 - Counties Manukau v Otago (RS)

Otago: Trent Renata, Jayden Spence, Michael Collins, Teihorangi Walden, Fa'asiu Fuatai, Hayden Parker, Josh Renton, Charlie O'Connell (c), James Lentjes, Lee Allan, Tom Franklin, Joe Latta, Hisa Sasagi, Liam Coltman, Aki Seiuli. Reserves: Sam Anderson-Heather, Donald Brighouse, Jackson Hemopo, TJ Ioane, Nick Ealey, Peter Breen, Marshall Suckling.

24/08 - Manawatu v Auckland

Manawatu: Nehe Milner-Skudder, Newton Tudreu, Jason Emery, Hamish Northcott, Willia Paia'aua, Jade Te Rure, Papa Wharewera, Antonio Kiri Kiri, Callum Gibbins (c), Heiden Bedwell-Curtis, Nick Crosswell, Keepa Mewett, Ma'afu Fia, Rob Foreman, Hubert Buydens. Reserves: Nick Grogan, Chris Eves, Fraser Stone, James Oliver, Kayne Hammington, Otere Black, Jaxon Tagavaitau.

24/08 - Bay of Plenty v Tasman

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Following ABs2011's lead from the last round...

North Harbour @ $2.45
Hopefully they'll have Ahki back this week, but regardless I think they'll do a lot better than they did against Otago, providing the weather is okay.

Canterbury @ $1.25
This is one ruthless team, I expect to see a decent score racked up by Canterbury. Hopefully I'm wrong!

Hawke's Bay @ $1.62
I think this will be quite a close match, though I'm expecting to see quite a few tries.

Wellington @ $1.16
Northland will likely end up bottom of the log this season, can't see them really pushing this young Wellington side.

Counties Manukau @ $1.45
Though I think Otago looked good this weekend, I think Counties will benefit from a few changes in the starting XV and should close out the match.

Auckland @ 1.27
They'll bounce back strongly after their poor performance against Canterbury.

Tasman @ $1.37
Too good for a very average BOP side.

 

[Darwin]

Looks like we have a Ranfurly Shield challenge After our glorious 1 week reign last season we are pumped to get it back again....

 

[ABs2011]

Following ABs2011's lead from the last round...

North Harbour @ $2.45
Hopefully they'll have Ahki back this week, but regardless I think they'll do a lot better than they did against Otago, providing the weather is okay.

Canterbury @ $1.25
This is one ruthless team, I expect to see a decent score racked up by Canterbury. Hopefully I'm wrong!

Hawke's Bay @ $1.62
I think this will be quite a close match, though I'm expecting to see quite a few tries.

Wellington @ $1.16
Northland will likely end up bottom of the log this season, can't see them really pushing this young Wellington side.

Counties Manukau @ $1.45
Though I think Otago looked good this weekend, I think Counties will benefit from a few changes in the starting XV and should close out the match.

Auckland @ 1.27
They'll bounce back strongly after their poor performance against Canterbury.

Tasman @ $1.37
Too good for a very average BOP side.

Morning! Good on ya mate! I've only just had a look at the matchups (and odds) and to be honest nothing jumps out at me as "value". I'll have a bit more of a think about it and get back with my picks. Going on historical results though, we should probably expect another big upset or 2 one would think.

From week one I do think that Otago will have a great shot at the shield, Waikato & Tasman look like they are on track to punch above their weight, the disappointments (and ones to possibly stay away from until they can show something more) are Taranaki, Counties, and Auckland, & of course Canterbury looks as strong as ever.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Harbour's team has been announced, and I think it's stronger than last week's.

1. Greg Pleasants Tate
2. James Parsons
3. Sione Mafileo
4. Mike Farmer
5. Hayden Triggs
6. Jordan Manihera
7. Zak Judge
8. Jim Tuitaviti
9. Bryn Hall ©
10. Matt McGahan
11. Tevita Li
12. Pita Ahki
13. Nafi Tuitavake
14. David Raikuna
15. Robbie Robinson
16. Ray Niuia
17. Franck Fricconet
18. Brandon Nansen
19. Mario Ozich
20. David Bason
21. Daniel Halangahu
22. Luke Devcich

 

[Darwin]

Harbour's team has been announced, and I think it's stronger than last week's.

1. Greg Pleasants Tate
2. James Parsons
3. Sione Mafileo
4. Mike Farmer
5. Hayden Triggs
6. Jordan Manihera
7. Zak Judge
8. Jim Tuitaviti
9. Bryn Hall ©
10. Matt McGahan
11. Tevita Li
12. Pita Ahki
13. Nafi Tuitavake
14. David Raikuna
15. Robbie Robinson
16. Ray Niuia
17. Franck Fricconet
18. Brandon Nansen
19. Mario Ozich
20. David Bason
21. Daniel Halangahu
22. Luke Devcich

That backline could be devastating!

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

No changes to the Waikato 22, which is understandable! I was worried Lienert-Brown wouldn't be fit given his injury in the last game.

 

[ABs2011]

That backline could be devastating!

Yup, although I thought that about Auckland last week Classic example of how a quality backline can be rendered pretty much useless if the big boys are getting dominated.....

I might give N Harbour one last chance this week. I was pretty disappointed with them against Otago, it was mainly their D which I thought indicated they would not be much hope this year. That being said week one can be a bit of a toss up, so let's see how they improve in week 2 (playing at home should help as well).

The addition of Robinson is pretty big. Let's see if he can be a bit more direct and control things a bit.

What do you think Darwin?

 

[ABs2011]

No changes to the Waikato 22, which is understandable! I was worried Lienert-Brown wouldn't be fit given his injury in the last game.

Good to see. I'm really looking forward to their game!

I watched up until 13 -11 in the first half in their first game, left at that time thinking Wellington looked like they were getting on top after Waikato had jumped out to a bit of an early lead. Then turned on the TV again when I arrived home (not that long later) to see the score had stretched out to 30 - 11 - guess they ran in 3 tries pretty darn quick!!

Big test vs Canterbury, but at least they will have the game at home and should go in with a world of confidence!! You give them much of a chance Fish?

 

[Darwin]

Yup, although I thought that about Auckland last week Classic example of how a quality backline can be rendered pretty much useless if the big boys are getting dominated.....

I might give N Harbour one last chance this week. I was pretty disappointed with them against Otago, it was mainly their D which I thought indicated they would not be much hope this year. That being said week one can be a bit of a toss up, so let's see how they improve in week 2 (playing at home should help as well).

The addition of Robinson is pretty big. Let's see if he can be a bit more direct and control things a bit.

What do you think Darwin?

I haven't been betting on the ITM Cup this season, but in the past (when I used to bet quite frequently) I had two policies:
(1) Don't bet on a match involving Otago (I struggle to be objective in such matches)
(2) Never bet on North Harbour. They always look good on paper but never fail to disappoint!

Looking at the two sides, and given the fact North Harbour is at home, you would think $2.45 is great money for them. On paper they are clear favourites in my eyes. I wouldn't bet on them though I'm sure that doesn't help you in the slightest....

 

[ABs2011]

I haven't been betting on the ITM Cup this season, but in the past (when I used to bet quite frequently) I had two policies:
(1) Don't bet on a match involving Otago (I struggle to be objective in such matches)
(2) Never bet on North Harbour. They always look good on paper but never fail to disappoint!

Looking at the two sides, and given the fact North Harbour is at home, you would think $2.45 is great money for them. On paper they are clear favourites in my eyes. I wouldn't bet on them though I'm sure that doesn't help you in the slightest....

Haha, yeah, I used to bet a lot, and I had various rules similar to yours - never bet against the ABs and always bet against the Warriors, the Blackcaps, and N Harbour.
I have to admit Ive been having a think about this weeks games and it is a very tough week; only one weeks worth of form to go on which makes it really tough (tougher than no form to go on IMHO). I thought Southland looked good in week one, and Harbour looked average - maybe that is enough to say I should back Southland - but the home field advantage and the fact that Harbour lost to a pretty good team in Otago, while Southland beat what I think will turn out to be one of the poorer teams in BOP.... gona be a tough call - maybe you are right and the "value" is with the $2.45 on Harbour.

Also should point out that the TAB is offering pretty good "specials" on the ITM cup betting. From memory there are various specials, which are dedicated to certain days. I.e. on one day you get your money back if you team scores 20 but loses, on another you get your money back if your team is winning with 10min to go but they end up losing....Things like that which could put the odds in your favour a bit more IF you know what you are doing.......

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

I think Harbour's success tonight could depend on how well Robinson plays. He has been terrible for Southland over the years, so I'm not sure if he'll be any better for Harbour. That being said, he was pretty terrible for the Highlanders too, and it wasn't until he got a change of scenery that he started to flourish at Super level. Perhaps the move to Harbour will do him good? Regardless, presumably Harbour won't be kicking the ball as much as they were last week, so hopefully we will see some nice attacking play from them (it's a windy day, but if we're lucky the rain will stay away).

I can't see Waikato being able to stand up to Canterbury, to be honest. I think they'll have scraps of possession to work with, and although their young guys are all very good attackers, I'm not as confident in their defence. Taylor being out is a bonus for Waikato, they will have an advantage at goal kicking time, at least. We'll probably see a score of 25-15, or something similar.

 

[ABs2011]

Awesome mate, was just about to post some team sheets and realized you've been doing it in the first post - very helpful, good on ya!

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Awesome mate, was just about to post some team sheets and realized you've been doing it in the first post - very helpful, good on ya!

Cheers - it'd be nice if every team actually posted their team list though! Southland only publicised theirs because it had been unofficially floating around, and Hawke's Bay seem pretty secretive about theirs too.

 

[ABs2011]

Cheers - it'd be nice if every team actually posted their team list though! Southland only publicised theirs because it had been unofficially floating around, and Hawke's Bay seem pretty secretive about theirs too.

Yeah it's a real shame there is not a central website for the ITM cup....Surely it wouldn't take that much of an effort to come up with something....


Right, I'm gonna have to make my picks I guess....just to reiterate, my picks are based on expected return (i.e. odds value) vs who I actually think is gonna win the game. 2nd disclaimer is, unlike last week, I have yet to put any real bets down on these picks, and last disclaimer is I may change some of these once teams are announced.

Harbour @ $2.45 (via the "heartbreak special", i.e. bet is refunded should Harbour be winning at 70mins but go on to lose) - I was pretty stumped on this game, and still am to be honest. I give Harbour about a 40% chance of winning, inflated by the fact they are at home, they have good inside backs (thought Hall was particularly good v Otago), and I felt they had the tougher of the matchups in week 1. Southland look a bit more solid all round the park, but maybe Harbour can utilize those outside backs a bit more this week.

Canterbury @ $1.25 (via the 20+ point special) I actually think the TAB have made a bit of a mistake by offering these specials by Day as opposed to offering them on a game by game basis. Reason being, I believe this is a game where both teams may well score 20+. I'm going to take the safer option here and take Canterbury as (1) I'm not sure Waikato will hold them to less than 20 and (2) I think they are a pretty good chance of winning this game. They showed vs a pretty good looking Auckland team (on paper) that they are solid right across the park and seem big favourites to me to win an 8th straight ***le. Waikato looked really impressive against Wellington (B), but until I see more of them, I will keep that result in context as the first of the season against a Wellington side decimated by injuries. I hope Waikato continues to be a surprise this year though!!

HB @ $1.62 (again with the 20+ special) I really rate Tasman so am putting HBs week 1 loss in context. Their team is now out as well, and looks to be pretty solid. Last year they were tough at home, I expect the same again. Good inside backs with West and Eaton, some talent in the forwards with Evans, O'Connor, Abbot, Dixon, and some quality backs in Horrell, Fruean (who I hope will be much improved from week 1) and the Barracuda Taranaki were rubbish in week 1 as well (all be it in crappy conditions).

Wellington @ $1.16 (void if they lose by 3 or less) to be honest I don't think Ill go anywhere near this one with real money. Wellington are in trouble with injuries (although they have made some good changes for this week) and Northland look to be one of the worst teams in the comp. I'm nervous about Wellington having to travel, but otherwise they should in this by 13+ comfortably.

Counties @ $1.45 I really am completely undecided on this one. I was very unimpressed by Counties in week 1 - and don't think they deserved the draw. That being said this game is back on home ground where they proved last year they could step up to defend the Shield. Its also a day game which suits their style of play. On the other hand Otago looks better this year than last.....Ill keep thinking but am going to go with Counties for now.

Auckland @ $1.27 I want to see their team sheet, but Auckland should win this easily.

Tasman @ $1.37 BOP aren't much chop, Tasman I really like - enough said, Tasman to win!!

And there we have it...After all that I realise Ive picked exactly the same as Fish, but managed to blabber on for half a page


Oh and running total from week 1 is + $272

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Yeah it's a real shame there is not a central website for the ITM cup....Surely it wouldn't take that much of an effort to come up with something....


Right, I'm gonna have to make my picks I guess....just to reiterate, my picks are based on expected return (i.e. odds value) vs who I actually think is gonna win the game. 2nd disclaimer is, unlike last week, I have yet to put any real bets down on these picks, and last disclaimer is I may change some of these once teams are announced.

Harbour @ $2.45 (via the "heartbreak special", i.e. bet is refunded should Harbour be winning at 70mins but go on to lose) - I was pretty stumped on this game, and still am to be honest. I give Harbour about a 40% chance of winning, inflated by the fact they are at home, they have good inside backs (thought Hall was particularly good v Otago), and I felt they had the tougher of the matchups in week 1. Southland look a bit more solid all round the park, but maybe Harbour can utilize those outside backs a bit more this week.

Canterbury @ $1.25 (via the 20+ point special) I actually think the TAB have made a bit of a mistake by offering these specials by Day as opposed to offering them on a game by game basis. Reason being, I believe this is a game where both teams may well score 20+. I'm going to take the safer option here and take Canterbury as (1) I'm not sure Waikato will hold them to less than 20 and (2) I think they are a pretty good chance of winning this game. They showed vs a pretty good looking Auckland team (on paper) that they are solid right across the park and seem big favourites to me to win an 8th straight ***le. Waikato looked really impressive against Wellington (B), but until I see more of them, I will keep that result in context as the first of the season against a Wellington side decimated by injuries. I hope Waikato continues to be a surprise this year though!!

HB @ $1.62 (again with the 20+ special) I really rate Tasman so am putting HBs week 1 loss in context. Their team is now out as well, and looks to be pretty solid. Last year they were tough at home, I expect the same again. Good inside backs with West and Eaton, some talent in the forwards with Evans, O'Connor, Abbot, Dixon, and some quality backs in Horrell, Fruean (who I hope will be much improved from week 1) and the Barracuda Taranaki were rubbish in week 1 as well (all be it in crappy conditions).

Wellington @ $1.16 (void if they lose by 3 or less) to be honest I don't think Ill go anywhere near this one with real money. Wellington are in trouble with injuries (although they have made some good changes for this week) and Northland look to be one of the worst teams in the comp. I'm nervous about Wellington having to travel, but otherwise they should in this by 13+ comfortably.

Counties @ $1.45 I really am completely undecided on this one. I was very unimpressed by Counties in week 1 - and don't think they deserved the draw. That being said this game is back on home ground where they proved last year they could step up to defend the Shield. Its also a day game which suits their style of play. On the other hand Otago looks better this year than last.....Ill keep thinking but am going to go with Counties for now.

Auckland @ $1.27 I want to see their team sheet, but Auckland should win this easily.

Tasman @ $1.37 BOP aren't much chop, Tasman I really like - enough said, Tasman to win!!

And there we have it...After all that I realise Ive picked exactly the same as Fish, but managed to blabber on for half a page
and Finally Manawatu @ $1.87 (Both teams will be donw the bottom of the table one would think, but I reckon the Turbos will be better prepared than Northland for week 1)

Oh and running total from week 1 is + $272

Re: Canterbury v Waikato.

Surely putting money on both teams would be a good idea, if you think both are going to score 20 or more points? It's like the ultimate hedged bet.

 

[ABs2011]

Wow - 2 things that were very obvious in that one:
1 Harbour are the same team they have been for some time and have not improved. Im not impressed!
2 That ref was WAY out of his depth.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Wow - 2 things that were very obvious in that one:
1 Harbour are the same team they have been for some time and have not improved. Im not impressed!
2 That ref was WAY out of his depth.

Had to fast forward through the game, what was wrong with the ref?

It was good to see Robinson looking sharp - better than he's looked for Southland. I think Southland won the match on the strength of their scrum.

 

[ABs2011]

Re: Canterbury v Waikato.

Surely putting money on both teams would be a good idea, if you think both are going to score 20 or more points? It's like the ultimate hedged bet.

Yeah, for sure, if you definitely felt both teams would soccer 20+. I think its possible, but more likely that at the least Canterbury will score 20. I'm not so certain Waikato will, and even if they do, not sure they can/will win.

But yeah, would be the right strategy if you were confident it was going to be a high scoring game.

 

[ABs2011]

Had to fast forward through the game, what was wrong with the ref?

It was good to see Robinson looking sharp - better than he's looked for Southland. I think Southland won the match on the strength of their scrum.

He looked like he was getting manipulated a bit, particularly at scrum time. I recall one scrum that led to 3 points where the Southland prop popped up out of the scrum several seconds before he awarded a penalty to Southland which I found od. Also, in real time at the end of the game when he awarded a scrum to Southland, it looked very much to be that NH had not lost the ball, rather it had been stripped by Southlan and therefore should have ben play on. The subsequent last scrum was a disaster as well, I thought he didn't have control at all there and awarded a bit of a strange free kick to NH....Anyway, from what I could see he looked a bit jittery, looked like he was feeling the pressure, was awarding penalties and free kicks on momentum and pressure from the players rather than making each call independently. No doubt he will get better, and maybe Im a little annoyed at losing that one, but from what I could see he very much looked like a ref having his first game.