Premiership Rugby 20/21 - Rd 20

[Scotty]

Chiefs on 69...nice!

 

[Jimbo]

Hope Devoto is there this summer,
If EJ wants a playmaking 12 he's definitely the best option available


I don't think so,
I think we're the best set to defend against their power play, but they're so relentless on the goal line they will eventually get over, and I don't think our attack is where it needs to be to respond. Also our set piece can be shaky

I think Quins are the best bet: strongest set pieces and really good attack, but not sure their defensive structures are necessarily where they need to be atm (I might be getting influenced by the free for all vs Bath yesterday though)

I'd agree with that, mine was largely tongue in cheek, I think Sale have the pack to match but probably not the experience or backs.

 

[Jimbo]

That was a statement.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Slade delusional if he thinks he's still on the reserves list while refusing to be vaccinated

 

[Scotty]

Same total points in Quins vs Bath and Chiefs vs Falcons! Thats insane both 77 total.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

since someone asked Chiefs forwards tries
Simmonds 20
Ewers 6
Vermulean 4
Skinner 4
Gray 3
Williams 2
Hill 2
Yeandle 2
Capstick 1
Lonsdale 1
Francis 1
Kristen 1
Armand 1

Personally I partly reckon that Baxters target this season was to make Simmonds the all time try scorer to try and force Eddie's hand.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

LCD not scored a single one? Was it last season that he was regularly getting over from 5m taps? 19/20 and 20/21 have kind of blurred in to one

I have noticed that he's Chiefs' go-to-guy at the back of the maul, usually it's the hooker that has the ball there but it's usually Simmonds, and their maul is very strong

 

[FLOBALOB]

LCD has had a lot less minutes for Chiefs this season, but SS does seem to be thieving his tries from the maul recently

 

[Reiser99]

So looking ahead to last few games, what can we expect.

Bristol - Leicester (A), LI (H): Only need 3 points to get a home semi, which I can see them doing. How much game time do they want to give their players before the semis. I can see them possibly going hard at Leicester to secure the home semi, then resting against LI.

Exeter - Saints (A), Sale (H): Depending on the outcome of Sale vs Harlequins, Sale can still take second. A BP win against Saints would pretty much do it due to points difference. Again like Bristol, can see them going hard next week to secure home semi then have a rest on the final weekend. If they drop points against Saints though and Sake get BP win against Quins, then they'll have to win on the final weekend too.

Sale - Harlequins (H), Exeter (A): Playing two teams they could potentially end up playing in the play offs. Realistically need to beat both and hope Exeter drop points against Northampton to get a home semi. Can see them competing this match and then the match against Exeter will depend on the outcome of Exeter vs Saints.

Harlequins - Sale (A), Falcons (H): Would need to beat Sale and Falcons and Exeter to lose twice to get home semi. Could take 3rd and I think they'll go for it against Sale, if only to get a mental edge. Not sure about Falcons. With no break between play offs is it worth risking players. If they lose to Sale then they can rest anyway, but if they win then it'll be a tricky decision.

Saints - Exeter (H), Bath (A): Top 8 secure. Need 5 points from 2 games to secure 5th. I imagine they'll want to finish the season well and go strong in both games. Can't see them beating Exeter though, so depending on results they may have to go to Bath needing a BP win to secure 5th.

Tigers - Bristol (H), Wasps (A): Need 6 points to secure top 8. One win could be enough if results go their way. Tough game against Bristol, which I can see Bristol targeting to secure home semi. Then Wasps will also be competing for top 8, so both sides will need the win. Tough run in, especially as they don't get many BP's. Might well miss out on top 8 by the end.

LI - Wasps (H), Bristol (A): Beating Wasps would go a long way to securing top 8. They might face a weakened Bristol side on the final weekend, which could help. Wins could count against them if they are level on points.

Wasps - LI (A), Tigers (H): Have to beat the two teams directly above them to secure top 8. Fate is essentially in their own hands really. Tough games, but they are capable.

Bath - Gloucester (A), Saints (H): Capable of winning both games and easily capable of losing both games. Saints might be in no mans land come the final weekend and not as focused, which could help them. Need to beat Gloucester to be in contention of top 8.

Gloucester - Bath (H), Worcester (A). Again would need to win both games and hope those above slip up. Finding some form though, so could sneak into top 8.

Newcastle - Worcester (H), Harlequins (A): 4 points off top 8 and with Gloucester vs Bath they realistically need to get to 46 points if that match is a draw or Gloucester win. They would need to win both games convincingly and hope other results go their way. Think they'll miss out though as they would need a lot of luck to get 7 points and no one else get points too.

Worcester - Newcastle (H), Gloucester (A): Playing for pride, no relegation. Can they upset anyone in the race for top 8?

My prediction come the end.

Bristol
Exeter
Sale
Harlequins (Quins defence is too flaky and Sale already looking like they are in knockout mode)
Saints
Wasps (finding form at the right time)
Gloucester (Again finding a bit of form at the right time)
Leicester (Will survive based on other results)
Irish
Newcastle
Bath
Worcester

Anyone else want to try their hand?

 

[FLOBALOB]

Points difference is unlikely to come in to play as its games won that takes precedence, so assuming Chiefs and SAle get same points in next matches then SAle would have to beat Chiefs with Try BP and deny Chiefs any BP.

 

[higgik]

Hope Devoto is there this summer,
If EJ wants a playmaking 12 he's definitely the best option available


I don't think so,
I think we're the best set to defend against their power play, but they're so relentless on the goal line they will eventually get over, and I don't think our attack is where it needs to be to respond. Also our set piece can be shaky

I think Quins are the best bet: strongest set pieces and really good attack, but not sure their defensive structures are necessarily where they need to be atm (I might be getting influenced by the free for all vs Bath yesterday though)

Devoto also brings more physicality to the backline, which was sorely missed this year.

A midfield of Simmonds, Devoto, Slade would be a good start for EJ, with Marchant and Big Joe on wings. DeGlanville at FB

Then rotate and have
Smith, O'Connor, Odogwu, with OHC and Sleitholme on wings. Malins at FB.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

with Marchant and Big Joe on wings

How depressing would it be if we actually ended up with that, with all the options we've got to try

 

[BPM]

Devoto also brings more physicality to the backline, which was sorely missed this year.

A midfield of Simmonds, Devoto, Slade would be a good start for EJ, with Marchant and Big Joe on wings. DeGlanville at FB

Then rotate and have
Smith, O'Connor, Odogwu, with OHC and Sleitholme on wings. Malins at FB.

Why de Glanville? Good player, but there's several I'd pick ahead of him (Malins, Steward, Parton and Freeman have all been considerably more impressive IMO).

As for 'Big Joe'. I'm really not sure. He's got the potential to be excellent, but he's mostly looked ponderous and a bit flat a since he came back from injury.

I'd argue O'Conor has been quite a bit better than Devoto too.

 

[BPM]

How depressing would it be if we actually ended up with that, with all the options we've got to try

Agreed. Marchant is a great 13 but he's wasted on the wing. Cokanasiga just isn't up to it.

 

[duncanb]

Devoto also brings more physicality to the backline, which was sorely missed this year.

A midfield of Simmonds, Devoto, Slade would be a good start for EJ, with Marchant and Big Joe on wings. DeGlanville at FB

Then rotate and have
Smith, O'Connor, Odogwu, with OHC and Sleitholme on wings. Malins at FB.

Personally not for me,Exeter a great team but back line for me not the greatest to look at.
Simmonds a country mile behind Ford, Farrell and Smith.
Devoto a one trick pony like Jamie Roberts good players but no variety.
Slade needs to step up to 2019 level as fell off a tad , Big Joe just no can't get in his club side a regular basis let alone international team.
Marchant is a centre who can only get a game on the wing for his club struggled to get a game in poorest super rugby team in NZ.
Slidghtholme is a work in progress no ready for next step just yet but a game off bench v USA , Canada maybe along with H C.

 

[BPM]

So looking ahead to last few games, what can we expect.

Bristol - Leicester (A), LI (H): Only need 3 points to get a home semi, which I can see them doing. How much game time do they want to give their players before the semis. I can see them possibly going hard at Leicester to secure the home semi, then resting against LI.

Exeter - Saints (A), Sale (H): Depending on the outcome of Sale vs Harlequins, Sale can still take second. A BP win against Saints would pretty much do it due to points difference. Again like Bristol, can see them going hard next week to secure home semi then have a rest on the final weekend. If they drop points against Saints though and Sake get BP win against Quins, then they'll have to win on the final weekend too.

Sale - Harlequins (H), Exeter (A): Playing two teams they could potentially end up playing in the play offs. Realistically need to beat both and hope Exeter drop points against Northampton to get a home semi. Can see them competing this match and then the match against Exeter will depend on the outcome of Exeter vs Saints.

Harlequins - Sale (A), Falcons (H): Would need to beat Sale and Falcons and Exeter to lose twice to get home semi. Could take 3rd and I think they'll go for it against Sale, if only to get a mental edge. Not sure about Falcons. With no break between play offs is it worth risking players. If they lose to Sale then they can rest anyway, but if they win then it'll be a tricky decision.

Saints - Exeter (H), Bath (A): Top 8 secure. Need 5 points from 2 games to secure 5th. I imagine they'll want to finish the season well and go strong in both games. Can't see them beating Exeter though, so depending on results they may have to go to Bath needing a BP win to secure 5th.

Tigers - Bristol (H), Wasps (A): Need 6 points to secure top 8. One win could be enough if results go their way. Tough game against Bristol, which I can see Bristol targeting to secure home semi. Then Wasps will also be competing for top 8, so both sides will need the win. Tough run in, especially as they don't get many BP's. Might well miss out on top 8 by the end.

LI - Wasps (H), Bristol (A): Beating Wasps would go a long way to securing top 8. They might face a weakened Bristol side on the final weekend, which could help. Wins could count against them if they are level on points.

Wasps - LI (A), Tigers (H): Have to beat the two teams directly above them to secure top 8. Fate is essentially in their own hands really. Tough games, but they are capable.

Bath - Gloucester (A), Saints (H): Capable of winning both games and easily capable of losing both games. Saints might be in no mans land come the final weekend and not as focused, which could help them. Need to beat Gloucester to be in contention of top 8.

Gloucester - Bath (H), Worcester (A). Again would need to win both games and hope those above slip up. Finding some form though, so could sneak into top 8.

Newcastle - Worcester (H), Harlequins (A): 4 points off top 8 and with Gloucester vs Bath they realistically need to get to 46 points if that match is a draw or Gloucester win. They would need to win both games convincingly and hope other results go their way. Think they'll miss out though as they would need a lot of luck to get 7 points and no one else get points too.

Worcester - Newcastle (H), Gloucester (A): Playing for pride, no relegation. Can they upset anyone in the race for top 8?

My prediction come the end.

Bristol
Exeter
Sale
Harlequins (Quins defence is too flaky and Sale already looking like they are in knockout mode)
Saints
Wasps (finding form at the right time)
Gloucester (Again finding a bit of form at the right time)
Leicester (Will survive based on other results)
Irish
Newcastle
Bath
Worcester

Anyone else want to try their hand?

I mostly agree with your prediction on the finishing spots, but I think you're overrating Gloucester and Wasps while underrating Tigers.

Quins will almost certainly play a second string side against Sale. 2nd is highly unlikely and 3rd or 4th really makes no difference so when our squad is stretched by injury and suspensions, there's very little to be gained if we 'go for it'. I think we're far more likely to suck up a defeat against Sale and use the Falcons game in round 22 as a warm up for a likely semi final against Bristol.

 

[Reiser99]

I mostly agree with your prediction on the finishing spots, but I think you're overrating Gloucester and Wasps while underrating Tigers.

Quins will almost certainly play a second string side against Sale. 2nd is highly unlikely and 3rd or 4th really makes no difference so when our squad is stretched by injury and suspensions, there's very little to be gained if we 'go for it'. I think we're far more likely to suck up a defeat against Sale and use the Falcons game in round 22 as a warm up for a likely semi final against Bristol.

Maybe I've just got used to low expectations.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I'd argue O'Conor has been quite a bit better than Devoto too.

I'd completely forgotten about O'Connor,
He'd be my first choice 12 this summer fo sho,
Do really rate Devoto though - not sure if EJ is that keen, however. A Farrell/Devoto 10/12 seems like it should be right up EJs street, but it's never materialised

Can't rule out Manu just going straight in at 12, either

 

[BPM]

Personally not for me,Exeter a great team but back line for me not the greatest to look at.
Simmonds a country mile behind Ford, Farrell and Smith.
Devoto a one trick pony like Jamie Roberts good players but no variety.
Slade needs to step up to 2019 level as fell off a tad , Big Joe just no can't get in his club side a regular basis let alone international team.
Marchant is a centre who can only get a game on the wing for his club struggled to get a game in poorest super rugby team in NZ.
Slidghtholme is a work in progress no ready for next step just yet but a game off bench v USA , Canada maybe along with H C.

I agree on some of this (Simmonds and Cokanasiga), but there is also a lot of ill-informed rubbish in there.

I prefer O'Conor, but to suggest Devoto is a 'one trick pony' and compare him to Jamie Roberts is just wildly off. He can bosh, but he's far more of a playmaker than Roberts ever was.

Marchant is playing on the wing for Quins because Esterhuizen and Brown are suspended and Murley was injured. I don't want him playing on the wing for England, but he's our next option at 13 IMO. BTW, here's what they think of him in NZ: https://www.allblacks.com/news/10-great-super-rugby-imports/

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Didn't think I'd ever see Devoto compared to Jamie Roberts tbh