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Rugby Europe Championship 2018

Welshdragon2000

Welshdragon2000

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I've been looking forward to this for a while, I need to get my fix of tier 2 rugby and this is it.

Obviously the REC doubles up as World Cup qualifying with the team finishing first, after the 2017 and 2018 tournament, going into group A(?) and the team finishing second enters into a play-off match and the loser of that game goes into the World Cup repechage.

Georgia is excluded from World Cup qualifying simply because they've already qualified so this isn't the table half way through qualification:

1st: Romania 15pts
2nd: Spain 13pts
3rd: Russia 9pts
4th: Germany 8pts
5th: Belgium 2pts

Romania are the holders of the REC itself after beating Georgia 8-7 in the into game of last year but I'm backing Georgia to reclaim the ***le although Romania will be tough to beat and they should really qualify top of the table for the RWC.

Please feel free to add to whatever I've missed and correct my mistakes.
 
Romania will have an eye on their World Rugby ranking - They only need to gain 1.67RP to catch up to Italy.

Still that's a big enough gap that it can't be fully closed until at least Italy vs Scotland and Georgia vs Romania on 17 and 18 March.

If Spain or Russia really improve, it's not unimaginable (from a rankings PoV) that they (or Romania) might beat Samoa in the H&A play-off, and so *also* be in Pool A. You'd have 4 European teams in the same pool, and a REC derby.

Despite Germany's shock win over Romania in the opening week last year, the only competitive REC game this weekend is Spain in Sochi.
 
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Tournament predictions everyone (including Georgia)?

I'm going for:

1st Georgia
2nd Romania
3rd Spain
4th Russia
5th Germany
6th Belgium
(Same order for RWC qualifying)

Tournament preview:

Germany have a lot of inner problems at the moment it seems unfortunately and they desperately need to sort them out before they can start taking the big steps forward that they want. They were the side I was cheering on last year after beating Romania in the opening round but I don't see a repeat of this whatsoever. This will be a difficult tournament for them I feel but I will gladly be proved wrong.

Don't really know a lot about Belgium but I remember they had some great crowds last year so hopefully awareness of the game can increase this year again. I'm sure they'll be hoping to beat Germany this year (at home?) and I think they have a outside shot at it.

Russia are just so unpredictable, their forwards need to improve from last year to give them a shot at challenging Romania (and Georgia). They're in the world top 20 though and will definitely fancy their chances for play-off qualification so long as they beat Spain in the opening game.

Spain are a good side on their day, I enjoy watching them play. They like to move the ball about the park and they'll cause plenty of problems for other teams. Consistency is what's been lacking for me and wont challenge Romania I don't think.

Romania has made good progress over the last year. Their coach (Howells?) has done very well. They were stunted rather in the Autumn with only 2 internationals, I feel that they need more support and help from WR to take them that bit closer to tier 1 rugby. Good team though, well balanced and a side I like.

Georgia are just a cut above the other teams in this tournament or at least their forwards are. I remain to be convinced by their backs and this is the only thing holding them back from tier 1 rugby. The Aussie they got in as backs coach isn't a bad choice by any means but there hasn't been a great deal of progress under him partly down to the fact that the banks just aren't the quality they need. Watch out for Gela Apradidze everyone, he'll be one of the top scrum halves about one day mark my words. I rate him over Lobhanidze personally.
 
From my new 538-like RWC model: (Not including Georgia. Based on WRR. Also the level of rounding varies)
  1. Romania: 33 pts avg. (1st 94.0%, 2nd 5.0%, 3rd 0.8%)
  2. Spain: 23 pts avg. (1st 4.0%, 2nd 45%, 3rd 49%, 4th 2.5%)
  3. Russia: 22 pts avg. (1st 1.8%, 2nd 49%, 3rd 46%, 4th 3.0%, Last 0.1%)
  4. Germany: 11.8 pts avg. (2nd 1.0%, 3rd 5.0%, 4th 77%, Last 18%)
  5. Belgium: 6.5 pts avg. (3rd 0.1%, 4th 18%, Last 82%)
Note Russia has a (slightly) better chance of making the top 2 than Spain, even though the average is lower.

And don't forget Portugal still has a chance to be Europe 2. For winning the Play-Off vs Portugal and actually making the Final 23:
  1. Romania 5.0%
  2. Russia 47%
  3. Spain 39%
  4. Portugal 9.0%
  5. Germany 0.6%
For 2018 only, not counting points anyone gets points from Georgia, that's:
  1. Romania 18 pts avg. (20 pts 38%, Slam 66%)
  2. Russia 13 pts avg. (20 pts 0.6%, Slam 7.0%, Last 0.5%, Duck 0.2%)
  3. Spain 10 pts avg. (20 pts <0.1%, Slam 3.5%, Last 5.0%, Duck 3.0%, No points 0.2%)
  4. Belgium 4.5 pts avg. (Last 39%, Duck 29%, No points 9.0%)
  5. Germany 3.8 pts avg. (Last 56%, Duck 43%, No points 19%)
Assuming Portugal wins the Trophy, the outcome of the Promotion/Relegation Play-Off:
(Actually, the Trophy game on this weekend - Portugal vs Netherlands - could put that assumption in serious doubt)
  1. Portugal loses the Play-Off. REC 2019 has the same 6 teams as 2018 - 55%
  2. Germany is relegated - 24%
  3. Belgium is relegated - 19%
  4. Spain is relegated - 1.4%
  5. Russia is relegated - 0.1%

As for Germany, their internal conflicts, and what impact they'll have on the REC - I wouldn't write them off yet. They'll probably get all the players they want, and most of them are in HRK with plenty of experience together and performing well recently in the Continental Shield. They could be a complete disaster, but also there's every chance they could be as strong as ever.
(Still, "as strong as ever" is only the bare minimum for them to be competitive against Spain and Russia)

------------------------------------------------

TR-Gegner-Analyse Rumänien: Es gibt keine Ausreden - Rumäniens Mission lautet "WM-Qualifikation"
(From TotalRugby - article in German. ***le translates roughly: TotalRugby Opposition Analysis of Romania: There are no excuses - Romania's mission reads "RWC Qualification")

They got one thing wrong in the intro - They said Romania is on 19 points, but the 4 vs Georgia don't count.
 
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To make an actual bet of a prediction:
  1. Georgia - 5 wins
  2. Romania - 4 wins (becomes Europe 1)
  3. Russia - 2 wins (3rd in RWC qualifying - eliminated)
  4. Spain - 2 wins (becomes Europe 2 after beating Portugal)
  5. Germany - 2 wins
  6. Belgium - No wins (but beats Portugal to avoid relegation)
 
Interest all around in this torunament for me.

- Georgia transitioning to much younger backs from their fledgling Didi league which is always interesting to see.
- Romania trying to continue their upward trajectory of recent years and close the gap further on Georgia and while also integrate some of their Superliga generation of younger players.
- Russia probably as inconsistent a team in world rugby as you will ever seen. Can they find a way to be competitive in February before their domestic season starts? Their credible away performance in Tblisi last season suggests to me that they may have found an answer.
- Spain have a strong mathematical chance of qualifying, but haven't progressed as I thought they might. They need to start getting BPs to have any chance of RWC qualification in my opinion as Romania are likely to pick up BPs.
- Germany is embroiled in internal chaos and last game lost at home to Chile as a result (which is REC relegation form). They have loads of new "German qualified" players who have stuck their hands up to play for the side - but I've no idea what selection issues they may have due to politics.
- Belgium beat an improving Portugal in the promotion playoff and are no mugs (just thugs!). Watch with interest as they enrage the opposing team who invariably end up receiving the yellow cards instead of Belgium. Advanced tactics!

I think Georgia did well in November against Wales and Canada. They needed to progress to keep ahead of Romania and I think that they have. So I pick them to reclaim the ***le.
 
Bruce_ma_goose said:
- Germany is embroiled in internal chaos and last game lost at home to Chile as a result (which is REC relegation form). They have loads of new "German qualified" players who have stuck their hands up to play for the side - but I've no idea what selection issues they may have due to politics.
Click to expand...
Hans-Peter Wild, owner of Capri Sun, Heidelberg RK and Stade Français, tried to seize power of German Rugby Union (DRV) in the summer. His puppet lost the vote and all sorts of **** arised (his societies were negotiating sponsorship, test matches and even Pro 14 spots without talking to DRV) until the players and national coach tied to Wild by contracts (Heidelberg RK's, plus some Bundesliga stars) went on strike before Chile test match.

DRV has since then put in place a new staff, called new players... rebuilding a full national team. But just imagine what would be of Scotland or Italy if somebody "kidnapped" their best 20 or 22 players, as well as their national coach.
 
Osezno said:
Hans-Peter Wild, owner of Capri Sun, Heidelberg RK and Stade Français, tried to seize power of German Rugby Union (DRV) in the summer. His puppet lost the vote and all sorts of **** arised (his societies were negotiating sponsorship, test matches and even Pro 14 spots without talking to DRV) until the players and national coach tied to Wild by contracts (Heidelberg RK's, plus some Bundesliga stars) went on strike before Chile test match.

DRV has since then put in place a new staff, called new players... rebuilding a full national team. But just imagine what would be of Scotland or Italy if somebody "kidnapped" their best 20 or 22 players, as well as their national coach.
Click to expand...
This is why I think this could be a long tournament for Germany. They were looking like they could be a top 20 side at one stage but now they look more like a low tier 3 team. I hope I'm wrong as Germany are one of the sides that I want to do well and feel they can do well. It'll take another year to recover to where they were imo
 
Germany have announced a team vs Romania with not a single HRK player, 7 from North-German clubs and 6 of the same forwards as the Chile game.

I take back what I said about not writing Germany off. They're getting relegated!

Fear becomes bitter reality: DRV XV compete without WRA/GfR players against Romania (in German)

The DRV President also resigned yesterday with immediate effect. (also in German)

New prediction:
  1. Georgia - 5 wins
  2. Romania - 4 wins (Europe 1)
  3. Russia - 3 wins (Europe 2)
  4. Spain - 2 wins
  5. Belgium - 1 win
  6. Germany - No wins & relegated (but still 4th in RWC qualifying)
    • Portugal - Wins trophy & promotion play-off (but loses RWC qualifying play-off)

I hope they can resolve this in the next 2.5 weeks before the Belgium/Spain/Russia games... But from what I'm reading I doubt it.
 
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A strong Germany was in the interest of entire REC as it could have attracted sponsorship and more attention from mainstream sport media.

If the resigning president received threats to his life than the matter is very severe and should probably involve higher authorities. Wild is very wrong and a exclusion of his club from competition isn't too harsh.

I hope Germany will avoid relegation tough. It appears that many players from France will come for next matches.
 
I believe the links to the games were posted in another thread but I forget which one now. I'd appreciate it if somebody could send the links into here.
I'll be missing the opening games today sadly as I have a game of my own at the same time so here's hoping the rain comes down that bit harder and my game gets called off:D
 
Which game will get a higher cricket score? Georgia-Belgium or Romania-Germany?
 
Brigantine said:
Which game will get a higher cricket score? Georgia-Belgium or Romania-Germany?
Click to expand...

Probably Georgia - Belgium. May be a high score for Oaks as well but I prefer they'll take the BP and watch for injuries rather than force a cricket score.
 
Weather in Krasnodar is forecasted dry and sunny. I'm going for a Spain win there by 3.
 

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