Wales dropped from first to fourth in the world rankings at the weekend. A fortnight after being dismantled by England, Ireland have hopped up to second. Yet while it has become fashionable these past few weeks to poke fun at the randomness of the rankings, one of the best sides in the world doesn't get a ranking and is not going to the World Cup. This is Saracens.
Just imagine how far Saracens could go in Japan. They have five of the England pack; seven of the starting XV. In a week, by which time all the World Cup squads will have been announced, they will probably have another six going with other nations. Will Skelton, the Australian, would be a seventh if he had not found his Saracens deal preferable. Elliot Daly is the starting full back for England but may only be third-choice No 15 for Saracens.
If we agree that they could compete at world level, we could probably agree that Saracens are phenomenally strong favourites to win the Gallagher Premiership again this season.
If/when they do they will have won five Premiership ***les out of the past six.
You doubt that when CVC, the private equity firm, bought its 27 per cent share of the Premiership this year, it wanted to buy a monopoly. You would presume that it wanted a competition full of intrigue and knife-edge tension. The value of the competition is hardly going to rise if we already know who will be champions.
On to the salary-cap investigation, then. If Exeter Chiefs, Wasps et al cannot break Saracens, will it be this that finally does it?
You will recall that at the end of last season, Saracens were placed under "review". Several players' businesses were revealed in the media, particularly Faz Investments Ltd, a company run by Owen Farrell, Wiggy9 Ltd (Richard Wigglesworth's) and VunProp Ltd (the Vunipola brothers') all of which were launched with Nigel Wray, the Saracens owner, as a financial partner.
This demanded an answer to the question: is this not a smart way around the salary-cap rules? A payment in kind? Wray quickly issued a substantial, unyielding statement in which he sought not to deny these investments — quite the opposite, he said that they were within the salary-cap rules and that he was proud to be helping his players to become businessmen and invest in their futures in this way.
That is where we left the stand-off. Andrew Rogers, the Premiership salary cap manager, was left investigating it. The pressure is growing on him now because, five months on, the other clubs are chomping at the bit. The Premiership does not start until mid-October, but the Premiership Rugby Cup begins in three weeks.
Some clubs would love to see Saracens brought to their knees with a guilty verdict accompanied by a points deduction and severe reputational damage. Yet while none of them seems to be in a particularly forgiving mood, even if you attempt to take the emotion out, what they all need, before the season's start, is clarity. Whatever the conclusion, it is hard to see how it cannot damage Saracens.
There are three most likely outcomes.
One: despite a well-resourced legal battle, Wray fails to show that his co-investments are not a benefit in kind that break the cap. Saracens are found to be in breach of the rules. The maximum penalty is a 35-point deduction.
Of longer lasting significance, then, is: what would happen to the squad? Saracens would have to re-budget fast to come down under the cap. There could be a reduction in player wages, a fire sale of players or Wray would have to sell his shareholding in his players' companies. Maybe a bit of all three.
Two: Wray wins the legal argument and Saracens are found to be not in breach. At that point, suddenly, the salary cap has been detonated. It currently stands at £7 million. If every other club is informed that, legally, they can go into business with their players, like Wray, then the game has been immediately transformed. The ramifications are vast.
At that point, each club would have to decide whether or not they wanted to compete at this level. Money would rule. Wage inflation would rage. The southern-hemisphere nations have few defences to stop their players from being lured by the lucre of the north; they would now find it even harder to cope.
Three: Wray wins the legal argument and Saracens are found not to be in breach, but the reaction of the other clubs is to close the legal loophole. Wray could fight it and we would get into a further legal dispute. However, at some point, the votes of the other 12 clubs would beat the Saracens one. At what stage could those clubs just refuse to play against them?
The inside information is that, with the new season approaching, this is all soon to come to a head. Even if Saracens win this fight, though, it is hard to see how they do not lose.
