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Super League 2011 Preview Part 1
- Thread starter gingergenius
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The 2011 Super League season threatens to be the least predictable yet as the number of quality signings and bright young things emerging continues to grow. But who will challenge Wigan for their 2010 crown? Who will get a franchise for 2012? Regular TRF writer Dan takes a look at the situation in Part 1 of his annual blog
Firstly, it's important to mention that my predictions are rarely right! I don't think I've got one right yet in fact. However, this I can blame on one thing - the unpredictability of the competition! The stronger sides have generally gotten weaker and the weaker sides have gotten stronger. This has led to extreme difficulty in the prediction and no doubt betting stakes as well! However, on I press with a look at the up and coming Super League XVI as well as adding thoughts on the franchise positions of the respective teams.
/TeamBadgesAndLogos/TRF%20Style/TeamBadgesAndLogos/Super%20League/Bradford.png
Bradford Bulls
I tipped Bradford to get into the top 8 last season and to be honest, I was surprised that they didn't. Finishing a dismal 10th, the Bulls, who once appeared in five consecutive grand finals under the guidance of Brian Noble, let a promising start to the season slip away from them to witness a record losing streak.
With attendances falling (their average crowd was down 1,241 last season, ending at a massively disappointing 8,436) I am accepting arguments that the Bulls need a successful season to ensure a return to form both on and off the pitch.
Bradford have recruited well this winter, bringing in big name signings like Matt Diskin, who joins from deadly rivals Leeds Rhinos, and the highly rated Marc Herbert from the NRL's Canberra Raiders means they have direction and organisation at the play of the ball. Here is a full list of their ins and outs:
In: Matt Diskin (Leeds), Olivier Elima (Catalans), Bryn Hargreaves (St Helens), Chev Walker (Hull KR), Shaun Ainscough (Wigan), Patrick Ah Van, Ian Sibbit (Salford), Gareth Raynor (ex-Crusaders), Shad Royston (Halifax), Marc Herbert (Canberra), Kyle Briggs (Featherstone).
Out: Chris Nero, Wayne Godwin (both Salford), Steve Menzies (Catalans), Stuart Reardon (Crusaders), Glen Hall (North Queensland), Danny Sculthorpe (released), Joe Wardle (Huddersfield), Michael Worrincy (Penrith Panthers), Matt Orford (Canberra), George Burgess (South Sydney), Rikki Sheriffe (Newcastle RU).
Their attempts to move forward this season will be heavily dependent on their attempts to replace Matt Orford, who is a good player but, as so many Aussie backs do, struggled in Super League and missed a large chunk of the season due to an elbow injury.
All change for the Bulls in a coaching capacity as well. Out goes Steve McNamara, who takes on the England job on a full time basis, and in comes Mick Potter, who left St Helens at the end of his two year contract. Potter will bring some stability as he returns to familiar surroundings having had a stint as the Bradford assistant coach earlier in his career.
My prediction: I predict that the Bulls will come in the top 8, I am going to say top 6. I think they have improved sufficiently enough to become part of the tier vying for playoff spaces. Mick Potter might not always encourage attacking rugby but two grand finals in two years, if both ultimately unsuccessful, tell a tale.
Franchise likelihood o-meter: Dead certs.
/TeamBadgesAndLogos/TRF%20Style/TeamBadgesAndLogos/Super%20League/Castleford.png
Castleford Tigers
Having missed out on the playoffs by the narrowest of margins last season, Castleford can reflect on what might have been with a lot of regret mixed with pride. Not many tipped the Tigers to get into the 8, and whilst it was a close run thing, shipping 12 points in the last 2 minutes at Knowsley Road in September cost them dear.
For long spells of the season Castleford varied from excellent to appalling, and coach Terry Matterson will need to try and put a stop to such inconsistency if he is to gauge where his team is going to fit in for 2011. Potentially more of a priority for the club this season will be the licenses being awarded in March. The RFL have, foolishly in my book, pledged that a lower league team WILL be given a franchise for the 2012 season and I make Castleford at serious risk. No new ground has materialised and stadia is an obsession on the licensing quotas.
On the pitch, I think Castleford have also made significant steps backwards. Off contract Michael Shenton, the England centre, has joined St Helens on a four year contract, and talented loose forward Joe Westerman has joined Hull FC for an undiscclosed transfer fee. The returning Danny Orr after a long spell away from the club will galvanise fans even if he is at the end of his career. Here are the ins and outs at the Tigers over the winter:
In: Richard Mathers (Warrington), Danny Orr (Harlequins), Nick Youngquest (Crusaders), Nick Fozzard, Jacob Emmitt (both St Helens), Martin Aspinwall (Huddersfield), Willie Isa (Melbourne).
Out: James Evans (retired), Joe Westerman (Hull), Mitchell Sargent (returned to Australia), Michael Shenton (St Helens), Ryan Clayton (Halifax), Michael Wainwright (Dewsbury), Liam Higgins (Sheffield).
Clanger prone full back Richie Mathers will do little to inspire confidence, but Youngquest impressed during his time at crisis club Crusaders, and Fozzard and Emmitt will bring some punch to the pack left a bit light by the departure of Mitchell Sargent.
I like Castleford, I think they are a well run club who have a good reputation for bringing good, talented players through and I think it would be criminal if they weren't given a license for 2012. It remains a possibility they won't but I think Castleford will get their license.
My prediction: I think 9th again or 10th will be what Castleford will be aiming for. If everything clicks Cas will be hard to beat but I think the squad has deteriorated too much for any playoff hopes to materialise.
Franchise likelihood o-meter: Cause for concern
/TeamBadgesAndLogos/TRF%20Style/TeamBadgesAndLogos/Super%20League/Catalans.png
Catalans Dragons
After a hideous 2010 season which saw the French team finish rock bottom, the only way is up for the Dragons as they look to start afresh. Coach Kevin Walters has been replaced by Trent Robinson, who knows the French domestic scene well by all accounts. It was hardly surprising that Walter was replaced after a serious of dreadful results last year.
It's an important year for the franchise outfit as their stadium Stade Gilbert Brutus is renovated with a reduced capacity as a consequence. After a promising 2007 and 2008 the French team have slowly headed backwards since losing Mick Potter and have been unable to redress the slide.
There has been some wise recruitment from coach Robinson, here's a look at the ins and outs:
In: Scott Dureau (Newcastle Knights), Ian Henderson, Jason Baitieri, Lopini Paea (both Sydney Roosters), Vincent Duport, Carlos Mendes Varela, Romain Mencarini (all Toulouse), Damien Blanch (Wakefield), Ben Farrar (Manly), Steve Menzies (Bradford), Eloi Pelissier (UTC).
Out: Dallas Johnson (North Queensland), Steven Bell, Jerome Guisset, Brent Sherwin (all retired), Dane Carlaw (Brisbane), Dimitri Pelo (Montpellier RU), Kane Bentley (Pia), Andrew Bentley (Lezigan), Olivier Elima (Bradford), Casey McGuire, Chris Walker (both Parramatta), Julien Touxagas (UTC).
A lot of experienced heads have retired, and losing inspirational stand off Case McGuire is a big blow for them. However, evergreen Steve Menzies will bring a lot of knowledge with him and the recruitment of local talent will ensure that French rugby continues to grow in strength.
My prediction: I think the outs outweigh the ins, but I'm not well qualified to comment on the talents of the players signed from French rugby. Trent Robinson however probably is, and it will be interesting to see how they will cope with the demands of Super League rugby. Let's hope they are a success as it's good for the French national team if they are. I think that the playoffs will be a step too far for the team in transition this time, I think they'll finish about 12th but with the correct nurturing of their talented youth scheme will come good in a few years.
Franchise likelihood o-meter - Dead certs.
/TeamBadgesAndLogos/TRF%20Style/TeamBadgesAndLogos/Super%20League/Crusaders.png
Crusaders
A disastrous first license period in Super League is almost up for the Crusaders as they limp towards the start of the 2011 season. After a remarkable climax to the league season in 2010 the Welsh franchise got into the playoffs by finishing 8th. But since their eventual elimination, things have gone from bad to worse for the Crusaders.
After entering administration, new coach Iestyn Harris has the already unenviable task of making up four points already after the expected points deduction was imposed. Following on from the visa scandal of 2009 and the fact that three players are unable to enter the country currently due to visa problems, Rhys Hanbury, Frank Winterstein and Hep Cahill are still in Australia awaiting visa clearance to enter the United Kingdom and may not make the start of the season.
With this sort of off the field lunacy hanging around so much emphasis has been taken away from the Crusaders. Getting into the top 8 last time around was a fantastic achievement, and it's big testament to the skills of Brian Noble, who has since gone to work in Australia, that he took the bottom placed team and got them into the playoff positions.
The Crusaders have lost much of their squad largely, though there has been some movement in:
In: Stuart Reardon (Bradford), Paul Johnson, Richard Moore (both Wakefield), Hep Cahill (Melbourne, to be confirmed).
Out: Weller Hauraki (Leeds), Nick Youngquest (Castleford), Tommy Lee (Wakefield), Rocky Trimarchi, Luke Dyer (returned to Australia), Anthony Blackwood (Limoux), Lewis Mills (released), Jamie Thackray (Barrow), Gareth Raynor (Bradford)
Youngquest was a big hit for the Welsh team, and they will miss Hauraki, who has gone on to join Leeds Rhinos, a sign of the quality he has. In Reardon, Johnson and Moore they have brought in established and experienced players, although Reardon has receded significantly since his days of being on the wing for Great Britain against Australia. Richard Moore was released from Wakefield due to salary cap reasons last year, and will prove to be a good signing.
On the pitch, the Crusaders are competitive. Off the pitch is where I have serious reservations.
My Prediction: The Crusaders will have a decent season but they are already 4 points adrift, before the season starts. They're already playing catch up. I think they lack some punch in the forwards and whilst they'll give teams a game at Wrexham, I think they'll be returning to the basement again in 2011. 14th.
Franchise likelihood o-meter: I am supremely confident that the RFL will duck the serious, serious questions about the Crusaders' long term viability and award them a franchise. I am personally of the opinion they should already have been stripped of this. The club needs to find a permanent home, a permanent fanbase and rebuild. They may well be Wales' team but Wales' rugby league stronghold is in the south of the country. Sticking them up in Wrexham might give them a home for now but the north west giants are a short drive away. The Crusaders are not meeting their targets, they have been run very poorly financially, and they should have been demoted following administration. I think they'll get another three years, but it's a bad idea and will harm the long term future of the club. Demote them and let them build again for 2018 applications.
Tune in for part 2 tomorrow...
The 2011 Super League season threatens to be the least predictable yet as the number of quality signings and bright young things emerging continues to grow. But who will challenge Wigan for their 2010 crown? Who will get a franchise for 2012? Regular TRF writer Dan takes a look at the situation in Part 1 of his annual blog
Firstly, it's important to mention that my predictions are rarely right! I don't think I've got one right yet in fact. However, this I can blame on one thing - the unpredictability of the competition! The stronger sides have generally gotten weaker and the weaker sides have gotten stronger. This has led to extreme difficulty in the prediction and no doubt betting stakes as well! However, on I press with a look at the up and coming Super League XVI as well as adding thoughts on the franchise positions of the respective teams.
/TeamBadgesAndLogos/TRF%20Style/TeamBadgesAndLogos/Super%20League/Bradford.png
Bradford Bulls
I tipped Bradford to get into the top 8 last season and to be honest, I was surprised that they didn't. Finishing a dismal 10th, the Bulls, who once appeared in five consecutive grand finals under the guidance of Brian Noble, let a promising start to the season slip away from them to witness a record losing streak.
With attendances falling (their average crowd was down 1,241 last season, ending at a massively disappointing 8,436) I am accepting arguments that the Bulls need a successful season to ensure a return to form both on and off the pitch.
Bradford have recruited well this winter, bringing in big name signings like Matt Diskin, who joins from deadly rivals Leeds Rhinos, and the highly rated Marc Herbert from the NRL's Canberra Raiders means they have direction and organisation at the play of the ball. Here is a full list of their ins and outs:
In: Matt Diskin (Leeds), Olivier Elima (Catalans), Bryn Hargreaves (St Helens), Chev Walker (Hull KR), Shaun Ainscough (Wigan), Patrick Ah Van, Ian Sibbit (Salford), Gareth Raynor (ex-Crusaders), Shad Royston (Halifax), Marc Herbert (Canberra), Kyle Briggs (Featherstone).
Out: Chris Nero, Wayne Godwin (both Salford), Steve Menzies (Catalans), Stuart Reardon (Crusaders), Glen Hall (North Queensland), Danny Sculthorpe (released), Joe Wardle (Huddersfield), Michael Worrincy (Penrith Panthers), Matt Orford (Canberra), George Burgess (South Sydney), Rikki Sheriffe (Newcastle RU).
Their attempts to move forward this season will be heavily dependent on their attempts to replace Matt Orford, who is a good player but, as so many Aussie backs do, struggled in Super League and missed a large chunk of the season due to an elbow injury.
All change for the Bulls in a coaching capacity as well. Out goes Steve McNamara, who takes on the England job on a full time basis, and in comes Mick Potter, who left St Helens at the end of his two year contract. Potter will bring some stability as he returns to familiar surroundings having had a stint as the Bradford assistant coach earlier in his career.
My prediction: I predict that the Bulls will come in the top 8, I am going to say top 6. I think they have improved sufficiently enough to become part of the tier vying for playoff spaces. Mick Potter might not always encourage attacking rugby but two grand finals in two years, if both ultimately unsuccessful, tell a tale.
Franchise likelihood o-meter: Dead certs.
/TeamBadgesAndLogos/TRF%20Style/TeamBadgesAndLogos/Super%20League/Castleford.png
Castleford Tigers
Having missed out on the playoffs by the narrowest of margins last season, Castleford can reflect on what might have been with a lot of regret mixed with pride. Not many tipped the Tigers to get into the 8, and whilst it was a close run thing, shipping 12 points in the last 2 minutes at Knowsley Road in September cost them dear.
For long spells of the season Castleford varied from excellent to appalling, and coach Terry Matterson will need to try and put a stop to such inconsistency if he is to gauge where his team is going to fit in for 2011. Potentially more of a priority for the club this season will be the licenses being awarded in March. The RFL have, foolishly in my book, pledged that a lower league team WILL be given a franchise for the 2012 season and I make Castleford at serious risk. No new ground has materialised and stadia is an obsession on the licensing quotas.
On the pitch, I think Castleford have also made significant steps backwards. Off contract Michael Shenton, the England centre, has joined St Helens on a four year contract, and talented loose forward Joe Westerman has joined Hull FC for an undiscclosed transfer fee. The returning Danny Orr after a long spell away from the club will galvanise fans even if he is at the end of his career. Here are the ins and outs at the Tigers over the winter:
In: Richard Mathers (Warrington), Danny Orr (Harlequins), Nick Youngquest (Crusaders), Nick Fozzard, Jacob Emmitt (both St Helens), Martin Aspinwall (Huddersfield), Willie Isa (Melbourne).
Out: James Evans (retired), Joe Westerman (Hull), Mitchell Sargent (returned to Australia), Michael Shenton (St Helens), Ryan Clayton (Halifax), Michael Wainwright (Dewsbury), Liam Higgins (Sheffield).
Clanger prone full back Richie Mathers will do little to inspire confidence, but Youngquest impressed during his time at crisis club Crusaders, and Fozzard and Emmitt will bring some punch to the pack left a bit light by the departure of Mitchell Sargent.
I like Castleford, I think they are a well run club who have a good reputation for bringing good, talented players through and I think it would be criminal if they weren't given a license for 2012. It remains a possibility they won't but I think Castleford will get their license.
My prediction: I think 9th again or 10th will be what Castleford will be aiming for. If everything clicks Cas will be hard to beat but I think the squad has deteriorated too much for any playoff hopes to materialise.
Franchise likelihood o-meter: Cause for concern
/TeamBadgesAndLogos/TRF%20Style/TeamBadgesAndLogos/Super%20League/Catalans.png
Catalans Dragons
After a hideous 2010 season which saw the French team finish rock bottom, the only way is up for the Dragons as they look to start afresh. Coach Kevin Walters has been replaced by Trent Robinson, who knows the French domestic scene well by all accounts. It was hardly surprising that Walter was replaced after a serious of dreadful results last year.
It's an important year for the franchise outfit as their stadium Stade Gilbert Brutus is renovated with a reduced capacity as a consequence. After a promising 2007 and 2008 the French team have slowly headed backwards since losing Mick Potter and have been unable to redress the slide.
There has been some wise recruitment from coach Robinson, here's a look at the ins and outs:
In: Scott Dureau (Newcastle Knights), Ian Henderson, Jason Baitieri, Lopini Paea (both Sydney Roosters), Vincent Duport, Carlos Mendes Varela, Romain Mencarini (all Toulouse), Damien Blanch (Wakefield), Ben Farrar (Manly), Steve Menzies (Bradford), Eloi Pelissier (UTC).
Out: Dallas Johnson (North Queensland), Steven Bell, Jerome Guisset, Brent Sherwin (all retired), Dane Carlaw (Brisbane), Dimitri Pelo (Montpellier RU), Kane Bentley (Pia), Andrew Bentley (Lezigan), Olivier Elima (Bradford), Casey McGuire, Chris Walker (both Parramatta), Julien Touxagas (UTC).
A lot of experienced heads have retired, and losing inspirational stand off Case McGuire is a big blow for them. However, evergreen Steve Menzies will bring a lot of knowledge with him and the recruitment of local talent will ensure that French rugby continues to grow in strength.
My prediction: I think the outs outweigh the ins, but I'm not well qualified to comment on the talents of the players signed from French rugby. Trent Robinson however probably is, and it will be interesting to see how they will cope with the demands of Super League rugby. Let's hope they are a success as it's good for the French national team if they are. I think that the playoffs will be a step too far for the team in transition this time, I think they'll finish about 12th but with the correct nurturing of their talented youth scheme will come good in a few years.
Franchise likelihood o-meter - Dead certs.
/TeamBadgesAndLogos/TRF%20Style/TeamBadgesAndLogos/Super%20League/Crusaders.png
Crusaders
A disastrous first license period in Super League is almost up for the Crusaders as they limp towards the start of the 2011 season. After a remarkable climax to the league season in 2010 the Welsh franchise got into the playoffs by finishing 8th. But since their eventual elimination, things have gone from bad to worse for the Crusaders.
After entering administration, new coach Iestyn Harris has the already unenviable task of making up four points already after the expected points deduction was imposed. Following on from the visa scandal of 2009 and the fact that three players are unable to enter the country currently due to visa problems, Rhys Hanbury, Frank Winterstein and Hep Cahill are still in Australia awaiting visa clearance to enter the United Kingdom and may not make the start of the season.
With this sort of off the field lunacy hanging around so much emphasis has been taken away from the Crusaders. Getting into the top 8 last time around was a fantastic achievement, and it's big testament to the skills of Brian Noble, who has since gone to work in Australia, that he took the bottom placed team and got them into the playoff positions.
The Crusaders have lost much of their squad largely, though there has been some movement in:
In: Stuart Reardon (Bradford), Paul Johnson, Richard Moore (both Wakefield), Hep Cahill (Melbourne, to be confirmed).
Out: Weller Hauraki (Leeds), Nick Youngquest (Castleford), Tommy Lee (Wakefield), Rocky Trimarchi, Luke Dyer (returned to Australia), Anthony Blackwood (Limoux), Lewis Mills (released), Jamie Thackray (Barrow), Gareth Raynor (Bradford)
Youngquest was a big hit for the Welsh team, and they will miss Hauraki, who has gone on to join Leeds Rhinos, a sign of the quality he has. In Reardon, Johnson and Moore they have brought in established and experienced players, although Reardon has receded significantly since his days of being on the wing for Great Britain against Australia. Richard Moore was released from Wakefield due to salary cap reasons last year, and will prove to be a good signing.
On the pitch, the Crusaders are competitive. Off the pitch is where I have serious reservations.
My Prediction: The Crusaders will have a decent season but they are already 4 points adrift, before the season starts. They're already playing catch up. I think they lack some punch in the forwards and whilst they'll give teams a game at Wrexham, I think they'll be returning to the basement again in 2011. 14th.
Franchise likelihood o-meter: I am supremely confident that the RFL will duck the serious, serious questions about the Crusaders' long term viability and award them a franchise. I am personally of the opinion they should already have been stripped of this. The club needs to find a permanent home, a permanent fanbase and rebuild. They may well be Wales' team but Wales' rugby league stronghold is in the south of the country. Sticking them up in Wrexham might give them a home for now but the north west giants are a short drive away. The Crusaders are not meeting their targets, they have been run very poorly financially, and they should have been demoted following administration. I think they'll get another three years, but it's a bad idea and will harm the long term future of the club. Demote them and let them build again for 2018 applications.
Tune in for part 2 tomorrow...
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