Updated Predictions

[Dai Perk]

OK. Did the responsibly dorky thing and actually mapped out my 6N predictions game to game...

My new table says, first to last:

Ireland (ugh)
England (double ugh)
Scotland (damnit, 3rd means nothing)
France
Italy
Wales

I guess the only controversial pick is Italy over Wales. I can see Italy shocking everyone with 2 wins to Wales' 1 win, but I gather that's not the common wisdom I just think Wales have real issues right now, and a couple upsets by a resurgent Italy may make the difference.

Regardless, hard to to see my beloved Scots making the top two... I have hope and faith, but little in terms of realistic expectations...

Oh my word I am so psyched for this tournament!

-Dave

 

[Scotty]

Arnt Wales something like 9 wins in a row? And 2nd in the world? No chance they will be last.

 

[bushytop]

Arnt Wales something like 9 wins in a row? And 2nd in the world? No chance they will be last.

3rd but yeah it would be a massive upset of the form book for Wales to finish with the spoon...

... but opinions are like sphincters etc... everybodies got one.

 

[Thingimubob]

OK. Did the responsibly dorky thing and actually mapped out my 6N predictions game to game...

My new table says, first to last:

Ireland (ugh)
England (double ugh)
Scotland (damnit, 3rd means nothing)
France
Italy
Wales

I guess the only controversial pick is Italy over Wales. I can see Italy shocking everyone with 2 wins to Wales' 1 win, but I gather that's not the common wisdom I just think Wales have real issues right now, and a couple upsets by a resurgent Italy may make the difference.

Regardless, hard to to see my beloved Scots making the top two... I have hope and faith, but little in terms of realistic expectations...

Oh my word I am so psyched for this tournament!

-Dave

Out of interest, what are the "real issues" that you believe Wales have at the moment?

While I doubt anyone is predicting Wales are gonna win the 6 nations, the team is at least on a run of form with 9 wins in a row and we arguably have the best strength in depth in most positions that we've had in a ridiculously long time.

However I do agree that Italy could have a bit of a resurgence, especially considering the form of their club sides, so Wales need to be wary of the trip to Rome in Week 2 - especially if they don't perform in Paris.

 

[bushytop]

Out of interest, what are the "real issues" that you believe Wales have at the moment?

While I doubt anyone is predicting Wales are gonna win the 6 nations, the team is at least on a run of form with 9 wins in a row and we arguably have the best strength in depth in most positions that we've had in a ridiculously long time.

However I do agree that Italy could have a bit of a resurgence, especially considering the form of their club sides, so Wales need to be wary of the trip to Rome in Week 2 - especially if they don't perform in Paris.

I'd imagine the real issues are around our regions performances (or lack there of) this season... as well as the fact that our injury list probably rivals that of Scotland's...

 

[ncurd]

How the hell are Wales on 9 wins in the row....

South Africa
Tonga
Australia
Scotland
Argentina
Argentina
South Africa
France
Italy

Their third ranking is possibly a little inflated (I'd rate England above them, and Englands ranking is possibly from them ******** the bed during the 6N and summer internationals), there are some extremely tight wins in there and the only real scalps are the Saffers. But yeah absolutely can't see them finishing bottom.

Italy will finish last.

 

[Thingimubob]

I'd imagine the real issues are around our regions performances (or lack there of) this season... as well as the fact that our injury list probably rivals that of Scotland's...

While a fair point, the regions have pretty consistently under-performed (especially in Europe) since Gatland took over with Wales, so as long as key Welsh players are performing well then it shouldn't come into play.

Injuries aren't great at the moment, but there's a lot of players who are at least there or there abouts with their fitness. Our depth feels that bit better this year as well, so I'm hopeful that we shouldn't get dragged down too much.

 

[bushytop]

While a fair point, the regions have pretty consistently under-performed (especially in Europe) since Gatland took over with Wales, so as long as key Welsh players are performing well then it shouldn't come into play.

Injuries aren't great at the moment, but there's a lot of players who are at least there or there abouts with their fitness. Our depth feels that bit better this year as well, so I'm hopeful that we shouldn't get dragged down too much.

As disappointed as I am in our regions I totally agree, was just speculating as to what Dave was indicating when he stated "Wales have real issues right now...".

 

[Thingimubob]

As disappointed as I am in our regions I totally agree, was just speculating as to what Dave was indicating when he stated "Wales have real issues right now...".

Ah fair enough!

Well we've definitely seen the Welsh team in worse places than it is now, that's for sure!

 

[bushytop]

Ah fair enough!

Well we've definitely seen the Welsh team in worse places than it is now, that's for sure!

Yeah... these guys don't know what real issues are!

 

[andysimcoe]

Wales 6th is an interesting call. I guess you could say they have some hype but arguably they have their toughest games at home, I think it's more like France or Scotland will take the wooden spoon if Italy allow someone else to have it for a year.

 

[Dai Perk]

Great stuff, everyone... my feeling is that there will always be at least one surprise that confounds expectations in a tournament like this, and when I sat with pen and paper and made calls for each match, I was left looking at Wales with only one win. I'm unlikely to be right about it, but if your predictions aren't bold, what's the point of making them?

I assume the actual results will be a lot closer to "chalk" as we say here, but I'm keen to see something wild unfold. Thankfully, I'm not a gambling man...

Thanks as always, my friends!

 

[Thingimubob]

Haha all very true!

A lot depends on Friday night for Wales. It's gonna be a tough game, but a good performance and win will go a long way to building confidence for the other games.