URC March to the finals discussion

[TRF_stormer2010]

I'm just interested to hear where pundits' here minds are at.

I would say the 2 Scottish sides and the top 3 Irish sides are already all but confirmed but apart from that the waters are very murky.

The SA sides are yet to host foreign teams and have a few more games in hand while some of the Welsh sides have played even less fixtures.

So despite the Ospreys and Connacht lying 6th and 7th respectively I would argue the Sharks, Stormers, Bulls, Scarlets and Cardiff are arguably better placed to fill those 3 remaining places left for the finals series. Bennetton are probably out of contention. Scarlets for instance have 1 fewer log point but 3 games more in hand. The Welsh sides will be taking points off of each other in all probability though. I have the following teams in the final 8:

Leinster
Munster
Ulster
Edinburgh
Glasgow
Sharks
Bulls
Stormers

I just don't see Benetton or Connacht making it further. I can however see the top Welsh side(s) beat either the Bulls or/and Stormers to it- I just don't know enough of Welsh rugby to make anything in the line of a sure prediction.

 

[Groundhog]

I would like to see us come in second, but we have to go to SA with a weakened squad, then we will have to play Leinster twice and Ulster once. We will make the top 8 of course, but I would take fourth spot at this moment in time.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

I'm just interested to hear where pundits' here minds are at.

I would say the 2 Scottish sides and the top 3 Irish sides are already all but confirmed but apart from that the waters are very murky.

The SA sides are yet to host foreign teams and have a few more games in hand while some of the Welsh sides have played even less fixtures.

So despite the Ospreys and Connacht lying 6th and 7th respectively I would argue the Sharks, Stormers, Bulls, Scarlets and Cardiff are arguably better placed to fill those 3 remaining places left for the finals series. Bennetton are probably out of contention. Scarlets for instance have 1 fewer log point but 3 games more in hand. The Welsh sides will be taking points off of each other in all probability though. I have the following teams in the final 8:

Leinster
Munster
Ulster
Edinburgh
Glasgow
Sharks
Bulls
Stormers

I just don't see Benetton or Connacht making it further. I can however see the top Welsh side(s) beat either the Bulls or/and Stormers to it- I just don't know enough of Welsh rugby to make anything in the line of a sure prediction.

If you want an alternative opinion it's best to not be so thorough and spot on. So I'll largely regurgitate yours.

Connacht have played 3 more games than Saffas and 4 more than Scarlets. So their goose is cooked. Ospreys only one less game than Connacht, so very far from certain in their position.

The 3 SA sides you mention plus Scarlets will contest the 3 spots. I think Scarlets flowing play style will die in warmth and altitude, so depending on their schedule I'd rule them out and agree with your selection (I can see Glasgow finishing below multiple SA sides). A shame to see the Lion's steady decline since Ackermann left. They really were world beaters under him and now won't make playoffs and will likely finish below Benetton.

I'd consider a fit Edinburgh as the clear second best side come playoff time, with a chance of winning at Munster or Ulster if required (assuming Ritchie comes back and Kinghorn continues to develop).

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I'd prefer if Leinster went unbeaten from here on out. We owe Ulster big time this weekend and need to keep momentum going.

I reckon we'll drop games in South Africa though, assuming we have to play a couple games out there, I've lost track completely.

I'd fear a big South African team more than anything else the tournament has to offer come the playoffs but I honestly haven't seen much of their games.

Drive for five.

 

[unrated]

I'd prefer if Leinster went unbeaten from here on out. We owe Ulster big time this weekend and need to keep momentum going.

I reckon we'll drop games in South Africa though, assuming we have to play a couple games out there, I've lost track completely.

I'd fear a big South African team more than anything else the tournament has to offer come to the playoffs but I honestly haven't seen much of their games.

Drive for five.

We play you guys I think on the last weekend before the playoffs in Durban. This is the one game I have been looking forward to since we joined the URC, since it's close to the end I hope Leinster bring their strongest squad.

Question for anyone who understands the competition's structure and rules.
Suppose The Sharks, Stormers and Bulls win each game from now on with a bonus point (apart from the ones they play against each other), whats the most SA teams that can theoretically qualify for the Champions cup ? Does the comp rules allow for more than two or even one to qualify?

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

We play you guys I think on the last weekend before the playoffs in Durban. This is the one game I have been looking forward to since we joined the URC, since it's close to the end I hope Leinster bring their strongest squad.

Question for anyone who understands the competition's structure and rules.
Suppose The Sharks, Stormers and Bulls win each game from now on with a bonus point (apart from the ones they play against each other), whats the most SA teams that can theoretically qualify for the Champions cup ? Does the comp rules allow for more than two or even one to qualify?

First 8 (or 7?) regardless of nation as I understand it. Unless they changed it with SA joining the EPCR tournaments?

Ooh, they did change it. The 4 shield champs plus the next four highest ranked.

"HOW DO TEAMS QUALIFY FOR EUROPE?

A total of eight teams from the URC will qualify for the Heineken Champions Cup.

The winner of each regional pool will qualify, followed by the next four highest ranked teams in the main league table.

From the 2022/23 season, South African teams will be able to enter the Champions Cup if they have finished in the qualification places in the URC standings in 2021/22.

Regional pool mechanics will ensure at least one team will qualify."

United Rugby Championship: How it works

The United Rugby Championship gets under way next week. Find out all you need to know about the competition here.

www.rte.ie

Brutal for Italy, but focussing on the URC probably isnt bad for them.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

First 8 (or 7?) regardless of nation as I understand it. Unless they changed it with SA joining the EPCR tournaments?

Ooh, they did change it. The 4 shield champs plus the next four highest ranked.

"HOW DO TEAMS QUALIFY FOR EUROPE?

A total of eight teams from the URC will qualify for the Heineken Champions Cup.

The winner of each regional pool will qualify, followed by the next four highest ranked teams in the main league table.

From the 2022/23 season, South African teams will be able to enter the Champions Cup if they have finished in the qualification places in the URC standings in 2021/22.

Regional pool mechanics will ensure at least one team will qualify."

United Rugby Championship: How it works

The United Rugby Championship gets under way next week. Find out all you need to know about the competition here.

www.rte.ie

Brutal for Italy, but focussing on the URC probably isnt bad for them.

Good IMO. I can't imagine the top Scots or Irish sides falling outside the top 8 for the foreseeable future but its nice for us and Wales. More often than not I suppose those 4 teams will end up in the top 8 in any case but for the sake of representation I for one am happy with the safety net even if it might end up even this year so that the Stormers might miss out if for instance we end up 8th and the top Welsh side 9th.

I'd prefer if Leinster went unbeaten from here on out. We owe Ulster big time this weekend and need to keep momentum going.

I reckon we'll drop games in South Africa though, assuming we have to play a couple games out there, I've lost track completely.

I'd fear a big South African team more than anything else the tournament has to offer come the playoffs but I honestly haven't seen much of their games.

Drive for five.

I doubt any SA team bar the Sharks if they click on the day might cause Leinster any struggles at this stage. Bulls travel horribly. So too the Stormers.

If you want an alternative opinion it's best to not be so thorough and spot on. So I'll largely regurgitate yours.

Connacht have played 3 more games than Saffas and 4 more than Scarlets. So their goose is cooked. Ospreys only one less game than Connacht, so very far from certain in their position.

The 3 SA sides you mention plus Scarlets will contest the 3 spots. I think Scarlets flowing play style will die in warmth and altitude, so depending on their schedule I'd rule them out and agree with your selection (I can see Glasgow finishing below multiple SA sides). A shame to see the Lion's steady decline since Ackermann left. They really were world beaters under him and now won't make playoffs and will likely finish below Benetton.

I'd consider a fit Edinburgh as the clear second best side come playoff time, with a chance of winning at Munster or Ulster if required (assuming Ritchie comes back and Kinghorn continues to develop).

LOL. Hopefully there is a surprise outside of the known unknowns. Particularly I am hoping for a surprise in the shape of a Stormers making a run at the end. All fit we do have a starting XV that could upset top teams on the day given a kind bounce.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Scarlets are now on 32 points and still with games in hand. Their run-in is soft on paper and their more flowing style should mean they have a chance of securing winning BPs against Dragons (twice), Blues (once more) and Ospreys. This would take them to 52 points before a massive home game against Stormers (after a weird 3 week delay, why such a delay between rounds 17 & 18?) to close out the season. There are four teams currently on 41 to 44 points, with one or two games less remaining than the Scarlets, so by my reckoning if they get to 52 points they are a 50/50 chance of reaching playoffs. If they get more than 52 they are probably odds on to get in.

Similarly, the Lions are do or die in Durban next time out. If they can pick up a win there (which I think they can), then they have just Connacht, Benetton and Dragons, which looks like a highly probable 15 points. So they can get to 49 or 50 points which may be competitive if one of their rivals really collapses. But I'd rate their chances only at about 20% even if they win out.

Nervous times for the Sharks I'd say. They should beat Lions and Connacht at home but in my opinion all four of their remaining games are loseable and they need a minimum of two wins out of four. Same goes for Stormers, a tough run-in but they at least are showing some form. Connacht need a miracle with a tough run-in and lagging on points.

All of which is to say that the playoff race is still arguably more interesting than a look at the table would suggest. For a neutral we need the Lions to win in Durban to keep things really spicey.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Good summary. Stormers are in a good position but Leinster (which was our final game in the original scheduling if I recall correctly), Scarlets(away), Glasgow and Bulls are ALL tough asks. We did beat the Bulls at Loftus so *should* be favourites at home but these derbies are all to play for. I mean, the Lions trounced us at home before Omnicron. If we can beat two of the Bulls, Glasgow or Scarlets that's all any Stormers fan can hope for probably and might be enough for a play off spot particularly as those sides are our direct contenders for the 5 through 8 log spots. Man, I can even see a world where we do beat the Bulls, Galsgow and Scarlets for a home QF but then our luck will have to hold and we traditionally start to fade at the end of these long tournamens BUT I can't recall a year where we have suffered so few injuries at this stage.

I also see the Scarlets as the most likely contender outside of the current top 8. More games in hand and win-able at that. But it is not in their own hands IMO. That is a big gap unless one of the bigger SA teams or Galsgow implode totally. I can't see the Lions making it though. That one game less than the Scarlets is a tough ask looking at how far away on points the top 8 are. I can certainly see them overturning the Sharks and then take Benetton and Connacht at home. They traditionally don't travel well outside of SA but the Dragons havn't inspired much fear. Assuming they take all 4 with BPs they are still relying on one of the top 8 to falter.

My prediction:

1 Leinster
2 Ulster
3 Munster
4 Stormers
5 Edinburgh
6 Bulls
7 Glasgow
8 Sharks

 

[saulan]

I think Glasgow are really the ones with the toughest run in. They have points on the board at 50, but they still need to do their SA tour (Sharks and Stormers, which will be very tricky) and then have to play Edinburgh away. There is a reasonable probability that all they get out of those three fixtures are bonus points, given how only one NH team has gotten a win in SA and how important that final game is going to be for Edinburgh (Currently on 44pts, likely to beat Zebre with BP to get to 49, then have Ulster at home which will be tough, followed by the derby and final game of the season vs Glasgow).

Sharks actually also have a terrible run in. They need to beat the Lions this weekend and then have three Irish games in a row. Should beat Connacht, but Ulster and Leinster are unlikely... maybe between 50-53 points in the end. Bulls have an easy run-in after the Stormers. Ulster and Leinster also have top of table clashes for the rest of their games. Guess I'll try take a stab at final table

Team Points Remaining fixtures
1) Leinster 73 WWW
2) Ulster 63 WWW
3) Stormers 57 WWLW
4) Bulls 57 LWWW
5) Edinburgh 54 WLW
6) Munster 52 LWL
7) Glasgow 51 LLL
8) Sharks 51 WLWL
9) Scarlets 50 WWWWL

Places where I think I could've gotten things wrong (apart from the obvious unpredictability of sport):
- Potentially gave Leinster too much credit winning both games away in South Africa given NH performance in SA
- Stormers Bulls game - To me could go either way giving Bulls +4 and Stormers -4 if the result doesn't go as I forecasted
- Edinburgh Glasgow game - Could go either way I think. Would be a +4 swing for Glasgow and -4 for Edinburgh if it goes the other way
- Welsh derbies - I've assumed that Scarlets is going to smash everyone, but there is a lot of ignorance on my end here
- I scattered in some bonus points in there based on where LBPs or 4TBPs would come in, but those are even more speculative

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

I enjoyed reading both of those, but my main takeaway is that Stormers fans are as much homers as some Leinster and Munster ones! I will be surprised if Stormers get a home QF, but we shall see.

No love for the Scarlets, so I'll be rooting for them along with the two horrifically inconsistent Scottish sides.

 

[saulan]

I enjoyed reading both of those, but my main takeaway is that Stormers fans are as much homers as some Leinster and Munster ones! I will be surprised if Stormers get a home QF, but we shall see.

No love for the Scarlets, so I'll be rooting for them along with the two horrifically inconsistent Scottish sides.

There's definitely a plausible world where we win one out of four of our remaining fixtures, but I guess I'm leaning a lot on the NH performance here for Glasgow and am hoping for the best against the Bulls.

Where do you think we are being too optimistic on the Stormers front?

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

There's definitely a plausible world where we win one out of four of our remaining fixtures, but I guess I'm leaning a lot on the NH performance here for Glasgow and am hoping for the best against the Bulls.

Where do you think we are being too optimistic on the Stormers front?

If Scarlets are still in it, I'd make them favourite at home (even though we are heading towards summer by then, its Wales, so weather may be a factor). I think Bulls and Leinster are coin flips (unless Leinster send a weakened side by that time, which is possible). I'd give you the nod against Glasgow, so 1-3 wins is my incredibly imprecise prediction, and most outcomes in that range don't put Stormers top 4 by my estimates.

I shouldn't be dismissive though. The SA sides are showing consistent performance (be it good or bad) whereas the NH ones are all over the shop and it's not just mixed selections.

For fun I'll go:

Leinster
Ulster
Munster
Bulls
Edinburgh
Glasgow
Stormers
Scarlets

Sharks
Lions

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

If Scarlets are still in it, I'd make them favourite at home (even though we are heading towards summer by then, its Wales, so weather may be a factor). I think Bulls and Leinster are coin flips (unless Leinster send a weakened side by that time, which is possible). I'd give you the nod against Glasgow, so 1-3 wins is my incredibly imprecise prediction, and most outcomes in that range don't put Stormers top 4 by my estimates.

I shouldn't be dismissive though. The SA sides are showing consistent performance (be it good or bad) whereas the NH ones are all over the shop and it's not just mixed selections.

For fun I'll go:

Leinster
Ulster
Munster
Bulls
Edinburgh
Glasgow
Stormers
Scarlets

Sharks
Lions

Look, none of us are adepts at the crystal ball. I think the only real places where @saulan and I have it other than what you have it (for fun mind you in all cases) is we have Stormers beating the Bulls and Scarlets. Might be that we are being naive with the Scarlets away win but I feel relatively confident with my saying we are right in vs the Bulls even if it might be I think we are 51/49 favourites. Gelant should be back, possibly Moerat and Ntubeni as well and Fourie again starting. CT stadium slightly favors their bigger pack BUT to a small extent it also negates the pace they have out wide and our backs will be more used to the less firm conditions under foot. I am also banking to a small degree on the home advantage that seems to critical in this tournament.

Leinster I am writing off but maybe with the crazy lead they have they'll send a 2nd string team to SA. I almost hope not though.

I think we are up for Glasgow at home from what little I've seen of them though they won't be a walk in I expect. On the Scarlets, well I just don't know anything about Welsh club rugby. Looking at Scarlets' roster they have a world class front row and outside backs (I'm including Jonathan Davies in here as well of course). All fit we also boast world class in those position and I have us slight favorites in the other departments though of course a team is more than the sum of its parts. I suppose I should be wary of maybe reading too much into our games against other Welsh regions which I admit certainly shades my expectations. Even against the ospreys I think the scoreline flattered them.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

It's not so much I'm doubting the Stormers, the SA sides should be confident after the last couple of weeks. Its more that the top 4 have more than a one game a lead on points and the Bulls arguably have the easiest run in of the SA sides. At least we have talking points about playoffs towards the end of the season.

 

[saulan]

Team Points Remaining fixtures
1) Leinster 73 WWW
2) Ulster 63 WWW
3) Stormers 57 WLW
4) Bulls 57 WWW
5) Edinburgh 54 WLW
6) Munster 52 LWL
7) Glasgow 51 LLL
8) Sharks 51 LWL
9) Scarlets 50 WWWL

Results went as anticipated, as did the expectations on bonus points, so no changes on the estimated table from my side.

After watching the Connacht Leinster game I do feel a bit more strongly that I've been a bit optimistic for Leinster that they'll win both games away to the Stormers and Sharks, but will leave it in my predictions for now just to be a bit more pessimistic for the SA teams (and to keep it interesting for Scarlets). They could of course put in a much stronger performance at home this week and warrant the optimism, so let's see.

 

[unrated]

Sharks are going all out for the Leinster game really trying to lure the fans back so that we can have a good hostile atmosphere for the game day, Don't exclude the posibility of Leinster losing both games in SA.

 

[saulan]

Makes sense, I think they need to. I mentioned in the other thread that Champions Cup rugby is looking to only be likely for the teams in the top 7 given Scarlets are looking more likely to miss out on the top 8 (and the top team from each of the groups is guaranteed a place). So Sharks need to get any advantage they can for their upcoming fixtures.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I'm personally also targeting the Leinster game to go wacth vs the Stormers and break my duck of live attendance. My boy can also now come along. Wonder if other peeps harbor the same ideas. Usually people tend to go along the same lines for the most part so I am expecting a big crowd. Up till then its been difficult what with restrictions, short notices and then the holiday schedule and Easter weekend to contend with.

Think the Sharks have the right idea. R70 also VERY reasonable. I'm glad we are seeing these breaks in pricing.

Other than that job done for the Stormers. Never expected a 4 try bonus vs the Bulls. Glasgow is a must win still if I am right and Leinster is a bridge too far on top of a probable loss to Scarlets away.

 

[saulan]

Think the Sharks have the right idea. R70 also VERY reasonable. I'm glad we are seeing these breaks in pricing.

Just took a look at the two ticket pages by comparison, way better offering from the Sharks. You have all the entertainment offerings and most seats at R70 for adults and R40 for scholars, so making it way more affordable for families. Only the west stand has R150 tickets.

In comparison, the behind the poles seats are R50 for the Stormers, but most of the other seats are R130-R200. Not doing as much to pull people in.

To be clear, this is still outrageously cheap vs what the north are paying, but South Africans have a great offering from their living room and there is terrible public transport offerings and near stadium offerings (specifically looking at the Lions for that one, personally was a massive fan of the fan walk for CT Stadium). They need to get people excited to be in the stadium again.