[2015 RWC] Quarter Final 2: New Zealand vs. France (17/10/2015)

[LiRFCMatt]

My coworkers here in France seem adament that the French will perform the "Can Can" as a response to the Haka.

Quite the change from the Chabal-led face-off in 2007

 

[The Jones Boy]

I can't see my beloved France winning this. I am really trying to see something, but apart from Michalak, and he needs to be on his game like never before, there isn't much else.

I can see Parra being partnered with Michalak for more élan and penetration and magic.
That combination has scary potential...

 

[ikvat]

1999 + 8 = 2007 + 8 = 2015

 

[james5000]

We can agree to disagree then, but I honestly don't know how you can claim there to be no difference between a World Cup pool game and a final.

Also they didn't make a movie about Stephen Donald because he was a former test regular.

I'm not sure what you mean, there was a massive difference between the pool game and the final. Just as there is a massive difference between the pool game between France & Ireland and the up coming quater final between France and the All Blacks.

Well you did say

that is a very narrow view of that game, Donald wasn't just some random 4th string 10 he was an experienced (~20 caps?) former long term backup to dan carter and starter in a number of tests and pretty much the only 10 in NZ who could tackle as well as Dan Carter. Forget the kick he made which was a bonus as Cruden wasn't kicking well and Weepu had an injury which affected his kicking as well. But Donald made more tackles for the amount of time he was on the field than any other all black in that game more tackles per minute than McCaw... only 2nd to Conrad smith for the backs even though he only played 50min. He didn't just fill in he kinda saved our bacon. When the french turned on the heat and nailed that channel our forwards struggled big time with McCaw stuck at the bottom of most rucks I believe Cruden would have seriously struggled. we got very lucky...The

difference between the pool match we dominated and the final we only just scraped him in was the huge difference in the effort from the french, nothing else.

?

 

[PacDuran]

1999 + 8 = 2007 + 8 = 2015

That settles it. I will now bet the farm on France.

- - - Updated - - -

I can't see my beloved France winning this. I am really trying to see something, but apart from Michalak, and he needs to be on his game like never before, there isn't much else.

Parra and Michalak need to fire, and their back row needs to play a game comparable to 2007 or 2011 to have a hope of winning this. Dusautoir, Picamoles and Oredreugo would be a back row that is comparable in power to the AB's back row, but more mobile, and younger. Most of all they need Thierry "Big Game" Dusautoir to set the tone early an lead from the front with another 38 tackle performance.

 

[ABs2011]

"New Zealand have every right to be confident going into this game given their recent record against France and the fact that they have the most talented players in the world. However, something just isn't clicking right now. They aren't as impressive as they should be. The side that usually make the game of rugby look so easy are making far too many mistakes, and that was in the easy pool they had. Pushed close by Argentina, the Kiwi fans should probably be a bit more nervous than they are.

The French need a pick performance from the pack if they are to win. An unconvincing New Zealand scrum has to be the target, and from there the French can knock over the points from range, keeping it simple. Expect France to raise their game as usual against the Kiwis, but it has to be said that a clinical Kiwi performance, which we have yet to see this World Cup, would see off the French."

http://fourballsblog.blogspot.fr/2015/10/new-zealand-vs-france-rwc-quarter-final.html

This has been covered before, but may as well talk about it again. There is an explanation for the above, IF you buy into what Hansen has been saying at press conferences.

To paraphrase Hansen: The All Blacks have been artificially simulating pressure situations in-game (during pool play) to give them selves some practise dealing with said pressure. As a result what you have seen from the All Blacks is not the "true" team if you will. Essentially we have been watching them practise. Hansen went on to say in one press conference that before the RWC everyone was saying we have a really easy pool, so this is what the ABs did to make a bit more out of the pool - I;m pretty sure he said the ABs would have gained very little from running in 100 points per game against these guys.

In terms of specifics look at the Namibia and Georgia games and take note of the almost non-existent in-play kicking game for field position, and an extremely small use of the tight five to hit the ball up.

So I guess it depends whether you buy into the above or not? Obviously the ABs did struggle at times with certain aspects of their game, but, some AB supporters (myself included) are perhaps not as worried about "form" as others. Lets also not forget that when the ABs did manage to turn it on against Tonga in the second half, and in particular against a very good Argentinian team who they absolutely dominated for almost a half of rugby, did look like world champions IMO.

That being said, if we do lose, one would think the strategy implemented by Hansen and co. will not only result in their jobs, but will be a far greater legacy than the rotational policy of 2007!! Alternatively, he will be hailed an absolute genious of the game if we win!!

 

[Larksea]

Larksea - I think you will have a hard time finding people who live in the same reality as you do, when it comes to Stephen Donald.

He was a pretty poor All Blacks - who redeemed himself with a winning kick. As much as you want to say he saved us - technically he came on the field when it was 5-0 - and he scored 3 points and France scored 7. He had good defence - on attack he did nothing except literally ran the ball out of play without being touched. It wasn't the game you imagine. He made a lot of tackles, but no one ever questioned his defence - they questioned his game management - which nothing about his play alleviated those criticisms. He made an easy kick - and we're all stoked that he got it - but it wasn't the redemption that you imagine. I personally would much rather have Isaac Ross over Stephen Donald.

For the record he's always seemed like a nice guy. And as a rugby player he was good enough to get the Chiefs to a final (albeit a ridiculously disappointing one). But he was really a pretty average All Black, who tried to take over when we had been relying on the best 10 in history.

now you're tripping.... Issac Ross cost us the trinations in 2009 as much as any single player could cost a team. Compared to Donald who copped public annihilation for a couple of mistakes in a single dead rubber match.

the disproportionate negativity towards Donald is ridiculous and the NZ public need to grow up, you're a perfect example of that.

how about games like vs AUS in Brisbane 08 where Donald played a major hand off the bench in a come from behind victory to help claim both the Beldisloe and tri nations silverware, or vs AUS in Auckland 09? plus others... Donald had a lot more high points than low.

The guy had the role of backing up the best 10 in history during his prime and he did a very good job overall considering a very big part of his role in the ABs squad was to emulate opposition 10s in training... Its as simple as that. NZ public need to grow up, its like they are buthurt it was Donald who basked in WC glory and not one of their favored sons Carter or Cruden.

 

[ABs2011]

OK, time for a team prediciton. The biggest talking point I imagine will be what the ABs do in the wake of Woodcocks injury. The remainder of the starting XV is probably pretty straight forward other than perhaps the choice of wingers. The reserves are a little more debatable with interest surrounding prop replacements, whether or not we carry a specialist lock replacement, or alternatively who out of Vito and Messam is chosen. Potentially the back-up halfback spot could be of interest too. Here's my rather unspectacular prediction:

New Zealand:
Ben Smith, Nehe Milner-Skudder, Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Julian Savea; Dan Carter, Aaron Smith, Kieran Read, Richie McCaw (capt), Jerome Kaino, Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Owen Franks, Dane Coles, Wyatt Crockett.
Replacements: Keven Mealamu, Owen Franks, Charlie Faumuina, Victor Vito, Sam Cane, TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett, Sonny Bill Williams.

 

[JJFlash]

I'd pick Nyanga in the back row instead of Chouly.
Dusautoir, Picamoles and Nyanga fired up would be the only chance France would have of winning.
Also, Parra at scrum half with Michalak.
We could do it ................just!!

 

[Mcfadden]

The Goal kickers, Michalak and Carter are pretty even in their stats for this WC. Michalak leads by one point, but France definitely don't have any obvious advantage there it seems. Actually, for all his criticisms on goal kicking - Bernard Foley is the second best. That could be boosted by playing more games though, not really sure.

 

[ABs2011]

The Goal kickers, Michalak and Carter are pretty even in their stats for this WC. Michalak leads by one point, but France definitely don't have any obvious advantage there it seems. Actually, for all his criticisms on goal kicking - Bernard Foley is the second best. That could be boosted by playing more games though, not really sure.

Goal kickers would usually be compared via percentages (accuracy) so it shouldn't really matter how many games they have played.

That being said Foley and DC have both started 3 games, and from memory Michalak has started 3 as well.

I think overall Foley is a out a career 75% goal kicker. I cant find what the other two are. Anyone point me to a good rugby stats site that keeps career records?

As for this world cup the stats I found had Foley best @ 90%, Michilak @ 81% and DC @ 80%

The site then does some whacky formular to control for kick difficulty and overall ranks Foley (5th overall at RWC) ahead of DC (13) who is ahead of Michilak (33).

Top ranked goal kicker is Biggar with 94% accuracy.

And of the remaining Nations Para, Pollard, Sanchez and Laidlaw all ranked pretty high.

http://www.goalkickers.co.za/#&ui-state=dialog

 

[Shaggy]

Looks like Nigel Owens is refereeing this match

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/...e-all-blacks-france-quarterfinal--nigel-owens

 

[The Jones Boy]

Yay Nigel Owens... ohhh... I wonder if I may end up Danny la Rueing that selection...
Anyways, I reckon PSA would be mad to leave Nyanga out of the French line up for the AB's. Duster is still a strong tackling workhorse but he has lost half a yard of pace and was non existent on the attack against the Irish. France need Nyangas pace to pinch the AB ball at the breakdown.
Parra must start with Michalak.
Picamoles will be key, he must stop Kieran Read from ranging far and wide.

 

[The Jones Boy]

All the talk is about how the French will roll the AB's on Saturday, keep it coming, grist to the mill.

 

[KeyboardWorrier]

Don't jinx us... reality is the French could walk away with a victory at the 81st_Minute.

 

[Tony Manx]

All the talk is about how the French will roll the AB's on Saturday, keep it coming, grist to the mill.

Mainly from your fellow countrymen not the French !

You say Parra and Michalak to start?!

Neither of them should start as the best half back combination are playing in the Top 14 in France this weekend!!!

 

[The Jones Boy]

Off this forum the world is talking about how we will get rolled on Saturday.
I love it.
It is a very strong French pack but I'm not seeing the same calibre as previous world cups in their back line.
Our secret weapon against France is Phillippe Saint Andre.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Off this forum the world is talking about how we will get rolled on Saturday.
I love it.
It is a very strong French pack but I'm not seeing the same calibre as previous world cups in their back line.
Our secret weapon against France is Phillippe Saint Andre.

Do you live on planet earth??

Because that is not what i'm reading...

 

[The Jones Boy]

Try outside the Afrikaans pages there Heinie

 

[WaterboySA]

@ The Jones Boy - Can't see that happening.AB's will win.