[2015 Super Rugby] Predictions

[TRF Mr Fish]

As always, it's good to get an idea of where everyone will be come finals time!

My predicted final standings:

1 Chiefs
Assuming Rennie selects more consistently this season there's no reason why the Chiefs won't win the competition. The biggest weaknesses in the team are in the props and in the loose forwards where, beyond the first choice combinations there isn't a lot of depth.

2 Waratahs
With few changes from last year's squad, the Waratahs will be aiming to do the double. The competition pool is stronger this season, however, so I'm expecting them to lose a few more matches along the way.

3 Sharks
As the strongest SA team, the Sharks should notch up third place. The Cheetahs (and possibly Lions) should provide easy points fodder in the conference, compensating for the relative strength of the Bulls and Stormers.

4 Crusaders
Same old, same old. Fruean in the midfield and a fit Carter from day one should make a big difference. If it weren't for the design of the competition I'd expect to see them contesting the final.

5 Bulls
Handre Pollard should be handed the reigns from day one. With his relative attacking mindset and the strong Bulls pack, the Bulls should dominate the opposition in Pretoria.

6 Brumbies
The Brumbies are fairly similar in strength to the Reds and the Force. Their big game temperament should see them finish the highest of the chasing pack, however.

7 Hurricanes
Nonu's return to the capital will hopefully see the Wellington side push harder than they did last year. A slow start on tour could hamper their chances. Although their starting team is one of the best in the competition, their relative lack of depth could pose problems, especially with mandatory rests for the All Blacks.

8 Stormers
There will likely be a log jam of times sitting just below the top six. The Stormers have a solid squad, beyond that though there isn't a whole lot to get excited about, given they will likely be trumped by their fellow SA teams.

9 Highlanders
A lot of the Highlander's success will depend on how well their x-factor players perform. Rests for the two Smiths could be very upsetting to the Highlander's chances.

10 Reds
Quade Cooper's injury will cripple the Reds for the first part of the season. By the time he returns I don't think the Reds will have banked enough points to contest higher up on the ladder.

11 Force
After last year's highs the Force are due to crash back down to earth.

12 Blues
It's going to be the usual stuff from the Blues. They'll be stupendous at times, but their young backline won't cut it in the tougher matches.

13 Lions
The Lions won't surprise as many teams as they did last year. Providing Boshoff is given the 10 jersey they'll hang on in matches on penalties and drop goals.

14 Rebels
The weakest team in the Australian conference. They might knock off the odd Oz team, but don't expect to see them win much else, especially away from home.

15 Cheetahs
It's sad to see their best players leave year after year. What else is there to say?

 

[TRF_heineken]

Yup, I think you pretty much nailed it on the head.

I just wonder if the Cheetahs might surprize us all, especially when they have Heinrich Brussouw back and if Willie Le Roux doesn't get injured.

For the Bulls, I have high hopes for. But they struggle when they tour, and this year will be no different. They have a few injured guys back, and it seems like they are flirting with the idea to play 2 fetchers... Which I think will work great, especially with the attacking players we have in our Backline...

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

1 Waratahs
2 Chiefs - I have the Waratahs top simply because they have a relatively easier run
3 Bulls - I believe the Bulls to be a more dangerous team than the Sharks and a team more likely to pick up bonus points
4 Crusaders - always there or thereabouts
5 Sharks
6 Brumbies
7 Stormers - All fit we might take the SA conference. I am saying we'll continue with 1/3 of our squad out on a continued basis.
8 Hurricanes
9 Reds
10 Lions - I think people will continue to be surprised by the Lions; IMO they have built on 2014 in the off season and have added a few quality players even if they'll be unknown outside SA all while retaining their players from 2014.
11 Blues
12 Force
13 Highlanders
14 Rebels
15 Cheetahs

It's good too see there aren't any por teams in SR anymore. I mean, they'll probably dissapoint over the long run but any of the bottom 4 teams could beat any of the top 4 teams at home on the day and I can see anyone of the teams ranked 7 to 13 sneak into the top 6 if a few calls go their way the margins are so small. It's just, someone has to make up the numbers..

 

[Gena_ZA]

Tend to agree with stormer2010 above but have a few points to make:

Crusader might struggle this year with the resting of most All Blacks during the season
Lions to be a far better side that in 2015
Also think the Bulls might be contenders this year
Reds will be back and stronger this year I reckon

 

[The_Wol]

Reds top 5. Easily.

 

[nickdnz]

Hurricanes will be very lucky to make top 8 with Boyd in charge...

 

[Jaguares]

1 Waratahs
2 Chiefs
3 Crusaders
4 Bulls
5 Reds
6 Sharks
7 Brumbies
8 Hurricanes
9 Highlanders
10 Stormers
11 Force
12 Blues
13 Rebels
14 Lions
15 Cheetahs

 

[Kiwiwomble]

i'll be happy if the highlanders make the playoffs again, prove we're building

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Anyone want to make changes to their predictions?

Disappointing results from the Sharks and Crusaders so far. The Brumbies, Stormers and Hurricanes have done themselves some favours whereas the Cheetahs and Rebels certainly surprised me.

 

[nzlizard]

Warratahs and Brumbies from Aus
Chiefs and Crusaders from NZ, only picking the Crusaders due to consistency over the last few seasons.
Dunno from SA, Sharks and Bulls?

 

[TRF_heineken]

Anyone want to make changes to their predictions?

Disappointing results from the Sharks and Crusaders so far. The Brumbies, Stormers and Hurricanes have done themselves some favours whereas the Cheetahs and Rebels certainly surprised me.

Only one home team won this past weekend... It was absolutely crazy!

Could it be that some of the teams have "adopted" the Crusader's slow start approach??

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I'm suddenly very optimistic about the Stormers. I had us as either 3rd or 1st in SA depending on how our rookies go. While 1 game aganst a misfiring Bulls team is not much to go on it certainly puts a spring in my step. If those youngsters can keep the ship going we should be in good stead at the business end seeing as we have a ton of talent coming back into the fold over the course of the season; Malherbe, Etzebeth, Burger, Carr, Senatla, Van Wyk and Taute all should add value but will have to fight for their spots IMO.

 

[Shaggy]

Would love to see Carter, McCaw, and co win one last one for the Crusaders ... I'm sure they'll be up there at the business end, despite the poor start (not saying they'll win it) ... the Chiefs look pretty strong this year

 

[Gena_ZA]

I ain't predicting **** anymore this year

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

What are people's thoughts on how things are tracking now that we're half way through the season?

The Australian conference is obviously a straight shoot out between the Waratahs and the Brumbies for first place (and therefore a place in the top three). Both teams have pretty easy trips to Africa (Cheetahs and Lions for the Waratahs, Lions and Stormers for the Brumbies) while the Waratahs have slightly easier opposition left to play overall. I think the Waratahs will take first, though this battle may come down to the last round. I expect the final standings to be Waratahs, Brumbies, Rebels, Reds, Force.

The South African conference is anyone's game still. You have to imagine that the Lions will fall off the pace a bit as the weeks go by, whereas the Stormers have now all but completed their tour of Australasia so have the easiest draw remaining. The Sharks will struggle due to Lambie's injury and their upcoming tour matches against the Highlanders, Hurricanes, Waratahs and Reds. I don't think the Sharks have banked enough points to really make a case for the top six. The Bulls are tracking along well now but like the Sharks have tough tour matches against the Chiefs, Blues and Brumbies. The Stormers favourable remaining draw should see them bank first spot, followed by the Bulls, Sharks, Lions and Cheetahs.

Who knows what's going to happen in the New Zealand conference? Realistically the Hurricanes, Chiefs, Crusaders and Highlanders all are in a good position to push for the top six, with the Highlanders probably having the hardest draw remaining due to their tour to South Africa still remaining. Otherwise the hardest matches these teams have remaining are between themselves. The Hurricanes will progress through to the finals, purely because they've managed to amass so many points already. The Chiefs will probably take second, providing they don't slip up against the Oz teams (which they tend to do often). I think the Crusaders will pip the Highlanders, with the Blues bringing up the rear.

The final table?

1 Hurricanes
2 Waratahs
3 Stormers
4 Brumbies
5 Chiefs
6 Bulls
7 Crusaders
8 Highlanders
9 Sharks
10 Lions
11 Blues
12 Rebels
13 Cheetahs
14 Reds
15 Force

 

[austingtir]

The Tahs have a very solid forward pack but the Backs arent getting the space they had last year I dont think they will be anywhere near number 2 and will be lucky to beat the Brumbies into second in the Aussie conference. The Stormers looked huge against the Canes in the second half of their match and I hear they walloped the Tahs last night so they are likely on the up.

The Highlanders will continute to surprise. The Tahs might even knock the Saders out of the finals if the Crusaders dont pick their game up.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

The Tahs have a very solid forward pack but the Backs arent getting the space they had last year I dont think they will be anywhere near number 2 and will be lucky to beat the Brumbies into second in the Aussie conference. The Stormers looked huge against the Canes in the second half of their match and I hear they walloped the Tahs last night so they are likely on the up.

The Highlanders will continute to surprise. The Tahs might even knock the Saders out of the finals if the Crusaders dont pick their game up.

The Brumbies may well be a better team than the Waratahs, but their results so far don't really reflect that.

The Brumbies have won five matches - against the Reds (twice), Cheetahs, Force and Rebels. All four of those teams are in the bottom five. In contrast they've lost to the Waratahs, the Chiefs and the Blues.

If the Brumbies want to do well this year they're going to have to start beating some good teams.

 

[MotherRucker1]

I think the Bulls, if they continue the momentum after their win over the Crusaders, could be dangerous. That depends how they travel, as they have still to come out to New Zealand. They have shown patches of an awesome side, even if they do rely on Pollarde a bit at times. They were the first team, other than the Stormers in the 2nd half of their match, to really push the Hurricanes and were unlucky to lose really.

They should be able to beat the Sharks next week, the Stormers will have just returned to SA the following week and the trip back to your country is always the killer, they have a tricky one against the Lions but they'll be at Loftus for that, then they start their away tour with a match against the Blues. Stormers have the easier route to close out their season, but I reckon the Bulls could finish a bit higher.

Just on the Lions, I'd be wary of them too. Especially if I were the Brumbies and 'Tahs who have slipped up to sides before. If the Lions can beat the Bulls and the Sharks, and travel pretty well then that's gotta be worth something.

Think your table looks like what I'd expect though. I do fancy the 'Tahs as the better Australian team. Brumbies fall away towards the end of the season anyway, whereas NSW usually picks up.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

1 Hurricanes
2 Stormers
3 Brumbies
4 Chiefs
5 Bulls
6 Crusaders
7 Highlanders
8 Waratahs
9 Sharks
10 Lions
11 Blues
12 Rebels
13 Cheetahs
14 Reds
15 Force

I am backing the Stormers to make the no.2 spot on the back of
- our toughest games and tour are all but behind us (though I don't want to be too hasty in writing off the Force at home they did just lose to the Cheetahs and we are a different animal IMO)
- we'll face the Bulls, Blues and Brumbies at home and have had the Cheetahs' number of late. The Lions and Sharks away will be banana skins though even if the Sharks are a mess ATM we'll only be facing them again in R18 so a lot can happen for them still and they have the one pack in SA that can bully us right back.
- we are gaining momentum in the right half of the tournament. Too often have we come out guns blazing only to fall off in the latter stages.
- we have our best returning in that Vermeulen will have done his rest after the weekend, Etzebeth is building into his game back from injury and we'll have Jaco Taute and Seabelo Senatla back as the missing parts of our 1st choice back three where we have been lacking the clinical edge and composure (and outright pace from Senatla and size and solidity from Taute) they bring. Ruan Botha should also be fit to form our 1st choice 2nd row partnership.

That said I won't bck us for the ***le at this stage as we've seen yet again we lack the 9/10 combination to take full advantage of what I see as a great pack of forwards with depth in quality and sadly I don't rate our coaches' tactical nouse. Another year of 'maybe next year?' for us I'm afraid but I am hopeful as we'll at least see a change in the coaching staff though a world class 9 and 10 will still be missing if we don't sign someone in.

I see only the 1 'garuanteed' Aussie, 2 SA (Bulls and Stormers) and 3 NZ (Hurricanes, Chiefs and then a toss up between the 'Saders and 'Landers) teams in the final 6 this year though, of course, it's impossible to say only 1/2 way through.

 

[TRF_heineken]

I think the Bulls, if they continue the momentum after their win over the Crusaders, could be dangerous. That depends how they travel, as they have still to come out to New Zealand. They have shown patches of an awesome side, even if they do rely on Pollarde a bit at times. They were the first team, other than the Stormers in the 2nd half of their match, to really push the Hurricanes and were unlucky to lose really.

They should be able to beat the Sharks next week, the Stormers will have just returned to SA the following week and the trip back to your country is always the killer, they have a tricky one against the Lions but they'll be at Loftus for that, then they start their away tour with a match against the Blues. Stormers have the easier route to close out their season, but I reckon the Bulls could finish a bit higher.

Just on the Lions, I'd be wary of them too. Especially if I were the Brumbies and 'Tahs who have slipped up to sides before. If the Lions can beat the Bulls and the Sharks, and travel pretty well then that's gotta be worth something.

Think your table looks like what I'd expect though. I do fancy the 'Tahs as the better Australian team. Brumbies fall away towards the end of the season anyway, whereas NSW usually picks up.

The Bulls play the Blues and Chiefs, and the Brumbies and Rebels on tour. So I think they have a chance at winning 2 out of 4 on tour. Their last time they traveled to Auckland, they won against the Blues, and based on current form, I think The Bulls would be backing themselves to win there again.

The Bulls also have to travel to Newlands, which is not a happy hunting ground recently, and they are at Kings Park this coming weekend. So there is 4 games which I see as very possible losses for the Bulls. The biggest concern is how they travel. But if there's anything to go by, with how the other SA teams have been performing in Oz and NZ, then they should go there with the confidence that they too can win 3/4 like the Lions did.

I don't get why there are so much praise all of a sudden for the Stormers. They win against the Tahs, and all of a sudden they are being touted to be 2nd on the overall log. They still have to play the Bulls, Lions and Brumbies, and twice against the Cheetahs, a team that always performs better against other SA teams.

I think of all the SA teams, the Lions are in the poundseats. They finished their tour, so all their remaining games are in SA. They could very easily finish top of the log for the SA conference.