We'll win.
We generally win easy unimportant games, quite comfortably. We then choke against our main rivals for the play-off spot.
In 2 years of competition, we've lost every single "50/50" game we've had. We haven't won a single game where we weren't (at least slight) favourites. And no, the Lions one do not count as all of our wins against them were against their second team. The only time we faced their 1st XV they tore us a new one.