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The pinnacle of the Rugby Europe international tournament structure kicks off next weekend. With an assaulted referee, two eliminated sides due to selection issues and a host of controversial refereeing decisions, 2018 will be impossible to follow in terms of outright controversy. Hopefully the sport of rugby can return to centre stage. The gaps between sides is smaller than with the ARC, so there is potential for regular upsets. Here are basic breakdowns of the runners and riders.
Georgia - RWC bound, likely to continue in their recent vein of reducing average player age and moving away from a reliance on their pack. Their scrum has bizarrely weakened in recent years, but they should head into this as strong favourites, being fairly settled on both the coaching and player front. Prediction: 1st
Romania - have an interim coach in place while they wait on World Rugby to identify a suitable candidate. After a horrible 2018, where Romania lost out on an RWC place due a technicality, it is time for the new generation to be blooded and start building for 2023. While results in November were bordering on calamatous, there were many flashes of optimism that the next generation may be better than it's predecessors in the backline. But can they retain enough strength in the pack to give these young backs an opportunity to shine? Apparently they had a bounce match with Portugal at the weekend and looked okay, but they'll not repeat their championship winning effort of 2017 this year. Prediction: 3rd
Russia - the main beneficiaries of Romania & Spain's player eligibility issues, Russia have definitely shown serious progress in the past 18 months and shouldn't turn up in Japan as dead ducks there merely on a technicality (they lost by only 5 points when playing Japan in November). They are managing to finally convert some of their Siberian club sides form into the national team. If that continues, they should defeat a Romania in transition, and may put up a fight with Georgia for the ***le if Georgia really roll the dice on player selections. Prediction: 2nd
Spain - Spain have their own league, but unlike the above nations, don't participate in Rugby Europe's club competitions, which may hinder their growth (but help their bank balance). A solid side that can occasionally show some flair, Spain should compete strongly with Romania and Russia without ever threatening for a ***le push. Prediction: 4th
Germany - German rugby is riven by a dispute between the union and Mr Capri Sun's Wild Academy. They would certainly have been relegated last year with the Wild Academy players not playing, but for the penalties Spain and Romania received. Germany made it to the final qualification match for the RWC, but lost to Canada. Even with the Wild Academy players, they should be slightly below Romania / Spain / Russia. 4th would be a great bit of progress for them. Prediction: 5th
Belgium - probably my least favourite team in international rugby. The appropriate passion of their fans is not mirrored by the inappropriate passion of their players. Main tactics appear to be to unsettle the opposition and get under their skin, so they lose focus on spanking you at rugby. If their opponents can keep their cool and not field ineligible players, then a relegation playoff with Portugal (or Netherlands) will likely beckon. Prediction: 6th
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Week 1:
Romania vs Georgia - a shame this comes at the start of the tournament, as Romania will likely improve as the tournament progresses. Their coach on debut can't reasonably be expected to win this. Georgia by 15
Belgium vs Germany - Belgium's one shot at avoiding relegation comes in the first match. They get a massive boost at home due to a decent turnout of fans but if Germany have their first XV available, this shouldn't be too difficult. Germany's pack is decent and will exert control here. Germany by 7
Spain vs Russia - Spain will feel they, and not Russia, should be at the RWC, but really there is nothing to choose between the two sides. Spain won in Russia last year after a controversial refereeing decision against Russia (mainly due to a lack of TMO) but Russia really impressed me in November. Russia by 2
Georgia - RWC bound, likely to continue in their recent vein of reducing average player age and moving away from a reliance on their pack. Their scrum has bizarrely weakened in recent years, but they should head into this as strong favourites, being fairly settled on both the coaching and player front. Prediction: 1st
Romania - have an interim coach in place while they wait on World Rugby to identify a suitable candidate. After a horrible 2018, where Romania lost out on an RWC place due a technicality, it is time for the new generation to be blooded and start building for 2023. While results in November were bordering on calamatous, there were many flashes of optimism that the next generation may be better than it's predecessors in the backline. But can they retain enough strength in the pack to give these young backs an opportunity to shine? Apparently they had a bounce match with Portugal at the weekend and looked okay, but they'll not repeat their championship winning effort of 2017 this year. Prediction: 3rd
Russia - the main beneficiaries of Romania & Spain's player eligibility issues, Russia have definitely shown serious progress in the past 18 months and shouldn't turn up in Japan as dead ducks there merely on a technicality (they lost by only 5 points when playing Japan in November). They are managing to finally convert some of their Siberian club sides form into the national team. If that continues, they should defeat a Romania in transition, and may put up a fight with Georgia for the ***le if Georgia really roll the dice on player selections. Prediction: 2nd
Spain - Spain have their own league, but unlike the above nations, don't participate in Rugby Europe's club competitions, which may hinder their growth (but help their bank balance). A solid side that can occasionally show some flair, Spain should compete strongly with Romania and Russia without ever threatening for a ***le push. Prediction: 4th
Germany - German rugby is riven by a dispute between the union and Mr Capri Sun's Wild Academy. They would certainly have been relegated last year with the Wild Academy players not playing, but for the penalties Spain and Romania received. Germany made it to the final qualification match for the RWC, but lost to Canada. Even with the Wild Academy players, they should be slightly below Romania / Spain / Russia. 4th would be a great bit of progress for them. Prediction: 5th
Belgium - probably my least favourite team in international rugby. The appropriate passion of their fans is not mirrored by the inappropriate passion of their players. Main tactics appear to be to unsettle the opposition and get under their skin, so they lose focus on spanking you at rugby. If their opponents can keep their cool and not field ineligible players, then a relegation playoff with Portugal (or Netherlands) will likely beckon. Prediction: 6th
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Week 1:
Romania vs Georgia - a shame this comes at the start of the tournament, as Romania will likely improve as the tournament progresses. Their coach on debut can't reasonably be expected to win this. Georgia by 15
Belgium vs Germany - Belgium's one shot at avoiding relegation comes in the first match. They get a massive boost at home due to a decent turnout of fans but if Germany have their first XV available, this shouldn't be too difficult. Germany's pack is decent and will exert control here. Germany by 7
Spain vs Russia - Spain will feel they, and not Russia, should be at the RWC, but really there is nothing to choose between the two sides. Spain won in Russia last year after a controversial refereeing decision against Russia (mainly due to a lack of TMO) but Russia really impressed me in November. Russia by 2
