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A Political Thread pt. 2

Can they afford nationalism of the water industry. I'm sure I read some where it would be 50bn plus before you started tackling the problems.

Various governments keep these companies as they basically can't afford it
Probably not, but when the water companies like the report you know it probably doesn't go far enough. I know the government can't afford to do everything, but this is a perfect example of the problem the UK faces as a result of privatisation.

Services get poorer, prices go up, private companies make the profit and get minor slaps on the wrist every now and again. Meanwhile the government either can't afford to nationalise or our political system is so broken and corrupt that no one willing will be in power long enough to actually to do something concrete. Instead it's minor tinkering that accomplishes very little. As long as the country is dependent on these companies and the government isn't willing or able to properly hold them to account then nothing major will change and we will still be having the same conversation in 10-15 years time.
 
Guess it was only a matter of time before the coffee/avocado toast argument ******** arrived

Call it ********** if you want, but given the horrendously low amount of savings people have, budgeting and controlling discretionary spend is incredibly relevant. A third of UK adults have savings of less than £1K or no savings at all - some reports even put those figures much higher. For some people that’s 100% circumstance but for many others it comes back to the “I want it now” culture I mentioned previously. And by the way this is a cross generational thing and wider cultural point - the figures for older people are just as bad.

And just picking up on a couple of other points on the historic housing market:

Interest rates are still very low by historic standards - borrowing money was previously incredibly expensive. From 78-92 interest rates didn’t drop below 7% and were well above 10%, up to 15%, for much of that time. Where we are now probably strikes the right balance between savers and borrowers although how we’ve got there is appalling thanks to the mini budget.

The Bank of Mum & Dad is not a new thing. House buyers over several generations have had the help of (grand) parents and inheritances.
 
A 10% interest rate on a £30k mortgage is £3k a year in interest
A 5% rate on a £300k mortgage is £15k a year



Year Interest Rate Mortgage Size Average Salary Interest as % of Income
1990 10% £30,000 £13,000 ~23%
2024 5% £300,000 £35,000 ~43%

Modern buyers are paying nearly twice as much of their income on mortgage interest alone, despite the lower rates.
These Daily Mail talking points have all been debunked countless times
 

Sounds like a damp squid that will change very little. The problem is that these private companies have a monopoly. No government or regulator will hold them fully accountable because they are too afraid the companies will just call it quits and that will lead to a bigger crisis. As soon as the government ruled out nationalisation as an option the report was always going to be a waste of time.
I'm sure there was an IR crowd episode about damp squid
 
Minister of water today -

She said: "They'll immediately pull the investment because why would you, as a private investment, invest in a water company if you think that's just going to be taken over?

"The private investment would dry up which means I haven't got the money to fix the sewage pipes.

"I haven't got the money to upgrade the sewage treatment works, not be in a fight with lawyers for years.

"To me, that isn't what the public want to see."
 

Probably wants to rewrite it to say the potato munchers will recognise king Charles the magnificent as head of state again and will merge with northern Ireland back into the union, hence removing the issue of the Irish border.

Sheer, undiluted genius

Oh and the Irish can pay for all of it, I heard that's the way things are done these days.
 
A 10% interest rate on a £30k mortgage is £3k a year in interest
A 5% rate on a £300k mortgage is £15k a year




These Daily Mail talking points have all been debunked countless times

They can only be debunked if you compare like with like though.

The 1990 example quoted for a £30K mortgage would equate to approx half the value of an average house back then while the £300K mortgage is more than an average house now. And mortgage rates have always fluctuated depending on the amount of equity held.

A big consideration is that a mortgage is paid for from take home pay, not gross which seems to be the metric quoted, so you have also to think about the tax position when assessing affordability. There was MIRAS for a while to help, but current income tax rates are also well below previous levels. For a lot of the 80s base rate was 30% and highest 60%, while in the 70s you could have the pleasure of 35% base and 83% top. If you want to get uber granular for fair comparisons then you need to start building in tax thresholds and NI rates too.

Not to mention price inflation - through a lot of the 70s and into the 80s this was at Liz Truss levels the whole time and even when it settled down it was still well above today’s levels - do you think everyone’s salaries kept pace?

And while you can argue about data manipulation with zero hours contracts etc, historical unemployment figures back in the 80s especially were terrifying: 7-11% through the whole decade - those people weren’t buying houses.

If you want to go back to the 70s you can even start looking at stuff like electricity rationing and the three day week. They were not easy times.

So what’s my point? Mainly that every era had issues and it’s phenomenally hard to accurately compare them. But most of the easy headlines should also be taken with a pinch of salt.
 
Think there supply chain/skills shortages as well - even if the property developers wanted to build as much as they could (and they don't, most/all of the big firms are sitting on land they could develop but choose not to) they can't build at the rate required
 
What's the answer now? Seems like supply, demand and greed issues.

People in the UK view property as an investment. Home owners don't want prices to fall. Property developers don't want to flood the marking with houses.
Goes back to privatisation. Privatisation isn't in the public interest and no amount of tinkering will solve the issue.
 
Think there supply chain/skills shortages as well - even if the property developers wanted to build as much as they could (and they don't, most/all of the big firms are sitting on land they could develop but choose not to) they can't build at the rate required
Haven't several big builders gone under in recent times? My eldest is an apprentice bricklayer and has his sights set on Australia when he's done because the building trade is unstable in the UK.
 

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