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A Political Thread pt. 2

I don't think Iran have very much capacity to strike back in a meaningful way. I think the worst response they could do is creating a dirty bomb using nuclear materials and donating that over Israel.
 
Interesting where Iran go from here...

Their Axis of resistance is struggling, Hamas is obviously on life support, Hetzbollah have been all but neutralised, and Syria have even expelled militias loyal to Iran. Which only leaves PMF and Houthis whenever any considerable numbers. Both of these groups have stated retaliation against US bases would be instant if the US made a move. Let's see if these words were hollow.

On the bigger picture, Russia already have their hands full, and well we saw them helplessly watch what happened in Syria recently, China have competing agendas, so don't think they have the will to support, which only leave Pakistan as Irans strongest ally.

Pakistan has used strong rhetoric, but ultimately like China probably hasn't then will to physically support Iran.

So it seems Iran desperately need to negotiate, theor instinct would be to get the word out and call for all out religious war, but it's 2025 and that rally cry doesn't have the momentum in a middle east that is more transactional than previous especially with regards to the USA.

Which leads finally to Irans last options... closing the strait of Hormuz, and putting pressure on economically.

The real threat, as pointed out above though, is all analysts agreeing that Iran are isolated, and the risk of any support outside of major countries posting 'thoughts and prayers' on social media is minimal, this is when some sort of strike out of nowhere causes huge damage, and becomes a catalyst for further and wider engagement, and that's exactly what Irans gameplan would do, attempts to instigate an 'Islamic army'.

On a lighter note, its a good time to invest in Iranian flags, and sell them to the pro protestors during the next week!

Disagree I would say anti American sentiments are at an all time high.
 
So much for not getting into wars overseas. How will MAGA twist this in their minds?
They'll just say it was needed and Trump knows best and when he said there were no wars when he was last president and they'd be no wars again when he's in his second term he obviously didn't mean to rule out bombing Iran, duh.
 
I don't think Iran have very much capacity to strike back in a meaningful way.
I think they do, but not in a traditional military kind of way - they're not sending bombers over New York, but an Iranian revolutionary guard terror cell was arrested in London the other week, planning to attack the Israeli embassy

They could easily target US embassies/assets around the world - it's not taking out a reactor but it's still a bloody nose
 
Disagree I would say anti American sentiments are at an all time high.

But these are generic anti American sentiments internally, and in the middle east it has been quelled for 2 reasons.

1. Trump is a wildcard, they fear him because he is likely to do something stupid. Like offer a picture of a military leaders home to that military leader. Noone wants to be on the end of 'he died like a dog' speech.

2. There is money in the air, most middle east countries smell profit, Trumps policy realignment has been to negotiate deals, and the US are open for business.

Im not saying the US is loved in the middle east, but their standing is no lesser then previous, infact, with reports of Putin only going in to Ukraine because the USA were weak, and hostages reporting that Hamas leaders were cheering for Kamala Harris, there is evidence to suggest Trump is at the very least taken seriously.

Maybe I'm wrong, I'm certainly not a middle Eastern expert, but I'd say the threat would be some sort of terror plot enacted by a radical arm of Iran, while Iran was at the table talking peace, not a successful battle cry that engages the likes of Pakistan to talk war.
 
Disagree I would say anti American sentiments are at an all time high.
I wouldn't say it was in the middle east. No one really likes Iran for political, economic, religious and security reasons. The Israelis attack didn't really draw much serious condemnation from anyone really. Iran is that kids who causes trouble with everyone and then gets beaten up. No one really gives a toss if the Iranian regime falls or that Iran loses it's nuclear program.

Only thing I would say how puzzling the timing of this was. Iran was due to meet the Americans for a new negotiation 2 days before Israel attacked, Gabbard said in March to Congress that Iran wasn't building a bomb. Now all of a sudden they are building a bomb and they absolutely need to negotiate! Someone's lying and I'm not sure who.
 
They'll just say it was needed and Trump knows best and when he said there were no wars when he was last president and they'd be no wars again when he's in his second term he obviously didn't mean to rule out bombing Iran, duh.

Partly, the argument seems to be thus far that this isnt war, it was a perfectly timed precision strike that sends a message to all, and avoids war.

What i find interesting is the mixed messaging coming from the whitehouse, and granted I see more thought in Trump's actions than everyone here, but this seems multi sided.

The strikes damage to Iran is one of 4 facets to this maybe, hell of a risk.

I also think Trumps thin skin might have played into it, responding to the TACO memes, and calls that he doesn't follow through?!
 
I wouldn't say it was in the middle east. No one really likes Iran for political, economic, religious and security reasons. The Israelis attack didn't really draw much serious condemnation from anyone really. Iran is that kids who causes trouble with everyone and then gets beaten up. No one really gives a toss if the Iranian regime falls or that Iran loses it's nuclear program.

Only thing I would say how puzzling the timing of this was. Iran was due to meet the Americans for a new negotiation 2 days before Israel attacked, Gabbard said in March to Congress that Iran wasn't building a bomb. Now all of a sudden they are building a bomb and they absolutely need to negotiate! Someone's lying and I'm not sure who.

I told you we aligned on lots of issues hahahaha

Do you think the mixed messaging from the whitehouse is idiocy, or strategy though?
 
I told you we aligned on lots of issues hahahaha

Do you think the mixed messaging from the whitehouse is idiocy, or strategy though?
Idiocy because I don't see a strategy. Gabbard is a proper isolationist, always has been so saying there is no bomb when there absolutely could be one fits her MO but at the same time she has all briefing so I would expect her to know so she's now either lying or incompetent. Trump gets briefed by Gabbard and said publicly she's wrong on this. So either he doesn't trust her to do her job and would rather listen to Mossad or he's too incompetent to understand what Gabbard is telling him.

I know you have your opinions on Trump and they absolutely don't align with mine but do you think this is showing the current administration as competent or incompetent?
 
Trump is a populist who is obsessed with polls and his approval rating. The idea that he has a strategy on anything doesn't marry up in my opinion. Oh, and he's not the sharpest tool in the shed either.
I think he has been played by Israel too. One minute they are preparing for negotiations the next they are bombing without any real explanation. Hamas attacked on October 7th because they could see that Israel were starting to make moves to normalise relations with Iran and that would have left Hamas out in the cold. You have to think that Israel attacked Iran because of the upcoming negotiations between Iran and America. Now Trump either admits his strategy with Iran is a failure or goes all in with Israel. Israel have not given him much of a choice as he never admits failure
 
Literally why the **** has he got into that? Kier at times has no self awareness. A young naive band. Literally the least of the current issues to worry about
I don't think anyone who's not a fan of kneecap cares one bit about them either bar DUP types. Just alienating their fans, 90% of whom are normal people who just don't like what's going on in Palestine.

No one has ever come out against the lads and got the better of them either.
 
The idea that he has a strategy on anything doesn't marry up in my opinion.
“I’ve got a great plan, it’s the best, it’s bigly good, we need to get our best guys on it”

“Sir, are you sure this is your plan and not the plot of Top Gun Maverick? See… You’ve even written ‘they sing Great Balls of Fire’”
 
"I've got a great plan, it's the best, it's bigly good, we need to get our best guys on it"

"Sir, are you sure this is your plan and not the plot of Top Gun Maverick? See… You've even written 'they sing Great Balls of Fire'"
He rewrote Great balls of fire, it's now big beautiful balls of fire
 
I don't think anyone who's not a fan of kneecap cares one bit about them either bar DUP types. Just alienating their fans, 90% of whom are normal people who just don't like what's going on in Palestine.

No one has ever come out against the lads and got the better of them either.
Its boring because esbtabliment rails against modern music is a tale as old as time. Why the establishment ever see the point of starting a fight seams odd.

Eminem is considered a treasure these days.
 
Idiocy because I don't see a strategy. Gabbard is a proper isolationist, always has been so saying there is no bomb when there absolutely could be one fits her MO but at the same time she has all briefing so I would expect her to know so she's now either lying or incompetent. Trump gets briefed by Gabbard and said publicly she's wrong on this. So either he doesn't trust her to do her job and would rather listen to Mossad or he's too incompetent to understand what Gabbard is telling him.

I know you have your opinions on Trump and they absolutely don't align with mine but do you think this is showing the current administration as competent or incompetent?

I think time will tell, my instinct is that this is bumbling, Gabbard made the claim about Iran, and wasnt immediately corrected, but the The International Atomic Energy Agency did a review last November I beleive and had concerns about Irans capabilities.

It's hard to believe that US intelligence just 10 weeks ago deemed Irans nuclear agency no threat, and now it is. That's either a failing on their part, a failing of communication to Trump, or a strategy to create a false sense of security in Iran.

All those 3 have merits, but they all have big questions too.

Ultimately I don't know, could be stupidity, could be strategy, I think the proof will be in the pudding.
 
Idiocy because I don't see a strategy. Gabbard is a proper isolationist, always has been so saying there is no bomb when there absolutely could be one fits her MO but at the same time she has all briefing so I would expect her to know so she's now either lying or incompetent. Trump gets briefed by Gabbard and said publicly she's wrong on this. So either he doesn't trust her to do her job and would rather listen to Mossad or he's too incompetent to understand what Gabbard is telling him.

I know you have your opinions on Trump and they absolutely don't align with mine but do you think this is showing the current administration as competent or incompetent?
Id add, I don't hate Gabbard, I liked her as a Dem, and I think she was smart in switching, but your bang on, she's either incompetent or has a dangerous agenda.
 
Trump is a populist who is obsessed with polls and his approval rating. The idea that he has a strategy on anything doesn't marry up in my opinion. Oh, and he's not the sharpest tool in the shed either.

Idd agree, and i would add, as I said above, the TACO names would have hurt his ego this would be a big thumbs up to those people, he's always politicking.
 

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