A Political Thread

[TRF_Olyy]

Same as Juncker said then, really
"I don't see the need for an extension because we've a deal" but the deal isn't done yet sooo......

 

[Which Tyler]

NB: I haven't personally checked the veracity of this, but it passes the sniff test, given that we know the national prediction is for a 6.7% decline. The source is usually very good at making sure it's accurate in what it posts.
And no, I don't know the figure for NI, nor why they're not included here.

 

[ncurd]

Yay least ducked!

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Yay least ducked!

It appears as if NI has just vanished off the face of the earth, that sounds preferable!

 

[Which Tyler]

Yay least ducked!

We're alright Jack! (comparatively and assuming we don't care about workers' rights or the environmental catastrophuck

 

[Which Tyler]

It appears as if NI has just vanished off the face of the earth, that sounds preferable!

If I'm reading things right, it's based on a 10 year forecast. Presumably that 10 year forecast includes the unification of Ireland.
That it still includes Scotland anyway counts against that.

 

[Gavin]

It appears as if NI has just vanished off the face of the earth, that sounds preferable!

Or NI is going to be only part of the UK to increase due to remaining aligned with the EU in some things.

 

[McTallshort]

NB: I haven't personally checked the veracity of this, but it passes the sniff test, given that we know the national prediction is for a 6.7% decline. The source is usually very good at making sure it's accurate in what it posts.
And no, I don't know the figure for NI, nor why they're not included here.

Is this if we completely stop trading with the EU?

 

[Which Tyler]

Is this if we completely stop trading with the EU?

No - absolutely nobody is predicting that.
Literally nobody.

 

[McTallshort]

No - absolutely nobody is predicting that.
Literally nobody.

So what is it showing then? Current deal? No deal? Norway plus?

 

[Which Tyler]

So what is it showing then? Current deal? No deal? Norway plus?

HM Treasuries' initial impact assessment of Johnson's deal on GDP over the next decade (I think it's decade - as mentioned, my brain is scrambled today).
6.7% figure nationally - which you can find pretty in pretty much every media outlet; which is why the above passes the sniff test enough for me to post without verifying.

ETA: Oh look, it even says on the graphic "impact of Johnson's deal" - so yeah, probably Johnson's deal, no no deal, not Norway + or any other variation.
ETA2: Looks like it's 15 years, not 10 - sorry.

 

[McTallshort]

HM Treasuries' initial impact assessment of Johnson's deal on GDP over the next decade (I think it's decade - as mentioned, my brain is scrambled today).
6.7% figure nationally - which you can find pretty in pretty much every media outlet; which is why the above passes the sniff test enough for me to post without verifying.

ETA: Oh look, it even says on the graphic "impact of Johnson's deal" - so yeah, probably Johnson's deal, no no deal, not Norway + or any other variation.
ETA2: Looks like it's 15 years, not 10 - sorry.

OK wonder if a no deal would be preferable to what's currently on offer

 

[Which Tyler]

OK wonder if a no deal would be preferable to what's currently on offer

No, IIRC the forecasts for this are worse than May's but better than No Deal - and that's purely on the economics; No Deal also puts up a hard border on the island or Ireland with a significantly increased risk of violence.
I'm really not sure where the rest of the benefits from PC's deal over no deal are - but as mentioned, I'm frazzled today (and short of time for detail delving).

Financial Times did this one (£ per year - not sure if per person or per household):

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Again, not over the moon that NI gets all sorts of benefits that are denied to Scotland (who had a more definitive vote to retain the close economic relationship with the EU).

On Starmer's argument generally, this is my perspective. GDP growth will not necessarily decline as long as Britain de-regulates when it leaves. If we have a boon in zero hours contracts, reduced pensions, increased privatisation of healthcare etc then GDP can comfortably be kept in the positive. The more that average folk have their nose rubbed into the dirt, the more GDP can grow. The less rights employees have and the less an employer has to contribute to your welfare and pension, the more attractive your country becomes for corporations to come and invest. High capitalism is a-coming. Having your pension eroded will become a matter of patriotic pride to show those "French turds" that Britain can stand tall.

We can all be very proud of economic growth in the future, but many us may be too overworked, underpaid or ill to really want to celebrate it. Cheers!

It appears as if NI has just vanished off the face of the earth, that sounds preferable!

But not before the likes of Stockdale and Best carry you to glory, surely?

 

[Which Tyler]

I won't get the chance to read this for a few hours yet - but it looks important: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...mmons-no-deal-amendment-letwin-a9162106.html?

 

[Reiser99]

Not sure how accurate it is, but this is the breakdown of votes for the deal at the moment according to the bbc.

 

[General Melchett]

Looks like tomorrow's vote is on a knife edge. Even if Boris loses by a whisker we'll be heading into a GE with his deal on the Tory manifesto and with Corbyn at the helm of Labour the Tories will probably get the numbers to push it over the line next time around (assuming they deselect all the Tory rebels who have lost the whip).

Two cracking rugby games followed by the House of Commons.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

MPs back Brexit delay until deal becomes law.

 

[ncurd]

Johnson must now ask for an extension by the end of the day....

 

[ncurd]

Johnson claiming he won't ask for a delay because the law doesn't compell him. Someone going to court on Monday...