A Political Thread

[ncurd]

Do hope this gets done now. 3 years of ******* about by every side has led to a great deal of uncertainty. Everyone needs to move on now.

I'll place a bet its not. The numbers in parliament just don't add up,

1) It has a majority against no-deal.
2) There is no majority for any conceivable deal, Johnson's latest deal will not win any new supporters that May's deal last time out did.

Unless a side concedes to something noting Johnson's deal is harder Brexit than May's deal nothings going to happen.

 

[McTallshort]

I'll place a bet its not. The numbers in parliament just don't add up,

1) It has a majority against no-deal.
2) There is no majority for any conceivable deal, Johnson's latest deal will not win any new supporters that May's deal last time out did.

Unless a side concedes to something noting Johnson's deal is harder Brexit than May's deal nothings going to happen.

If the EU rule out any more extensions it will come down to deal or no deal

 

[ncurd]

If the EU rule out any more extensions it will come down to deal or no deal

I don't think they will do that the EU have so far shown no inclination to force the UK to a no-deal situation. I can only really see that happening if they can't see a route to a deal being resolved currently there are some, first is the 2nd referendum which they'd actually like as it opens a pathway to remain the second is a general election which may lead to a parliament that can pass a deal (it won't but it could).

There is talk of an EU nation such as Hungary not voting with the big boys forcing us out of an extension but I don't believe that will happen if they duck over the EU they'll have less political leeway for the fights they want to have rather than causing EU/UK issues they have nothing to gain by doing so.

 

[ncurd]

Johnson looses another vote in commons, Saturdays big dust up has no time limit on debate (other than the speaker) and can include multiple amendments to the text of the deal.

 

[Amiga500]

Do hope this gets done now. 3 years of ******* about by every side has led to a great deal of uncertainty. Everyone needs to move on now.

You serious?


Its like putting your house up for sale (for say £300k), then accepting a bid of a fiver because you want to "move on".

Pass this deal and in 3 years time, the UK will be a f**king economic basket case. There was talk in the news the other day about the billions in US tariffs applied and how they'd affect local business. A literal drop in the ocean given after this deal, pretty much everything will be trading with the same tariffs!


Folks need to wake the f**k up and realise accepting any old sh!te for the sake of "moving on" is gonna end up in serious serious pain for the citizens of the UK (except Lord Snooty etc, who'll happily take benefit of being outside the EU offshore tax evasion laws).

 

[Amiga500]

**** me am i getting tired of all these.
"I'm not a fan of brexit, but we need to agree with this deal and just get on with it stuff"

Like please if your not a fan of Brexit then you would never want it passed....

Agreed.

Its really frustrating watching idiot turkeys vote for Christmas. Almost literally.


The majority of the English rednecks (is there a term for it?) that are interviewed on the news and proclaim "I just want it done" (etc etc) are too stupid to comprehend what they are asking for. They will be the hardest hit group in society.

 

[ncurd]

If the EU rule out any more extensions it will come down to deal or no deal

Well you were right I was wrong,

The President of the European Commission rules out granting an extension to the Brexit deadline of 31 October.

Jean-Claude Juncker tells reporters there is no need for an extension now there is a deal on the table.

Thats a massive shakeup to any perceived remainer plan.

 

[McTallshort]

You serious?


Its like putting your house up for sale (for say £300k), then accepting a bid of a fiver because you want to "move on".

Pass this deal and in 3 years time, the UK will be a f**king economic basket case. There was talk in the news the other day about the billions in US tariffs applied and how they'd affect local business. A literal drop in the ocean given after this deal, pretty much everything will be trading with the same tariffs!


Folks need to wake the f**k up and realise accepting any old sh!te for the sake of "moving on" is gonna end up in serious serious pain for the citizens of the UK (except Lord Snooty etc, who'll happily take benefit of being outside the EU offshore tax evasion laws).

Yeah yeah we are all doomed.

The biggest problem is the uncertainty and it needs to be resolved. Everyone knows your not a fan of Brexit you have bored us to death for the last 3 years with your waffle about it but it's going to happen. The EU and the UK government have come to an agreement. In the end the MPs voted overwhelmingly to trigger article 50 so they need to get it done now. Last thing the nation needs is another referendum followed by another general election, its all just adding to the uncertainty. Industries like mine have been treading water for 3 years. We were all prepared for WTO rules back in March as we're all the French ports and carriers in the EU. If we had left then with or without a deal any logistical problems would have been sorted by now but instead we continue to tread water.

Brexit is going to happen, the sooner the better.

 

[McTallshort]

Well you were right I was wrong,

Thats a massive shakeup to any perceived remainer plan.

Well it stands to reason. The EU have accepted the UK is leaving and the only way to get the deal done is to force the UK parliament into making a decision. The EU and UK need to get it done and move on. Some people will never accept it but it's going to become a reality.

 

[ncurd]

Industries like mine have been treading water for 3 years. We were all prepared for WTO rules back in March as we're all the French ports and carriers in the EU. If we had left then with or without a deal any logistical problems would have been sorted by now but instead we continue to tread water.

I'll accept your particular business may have been my understanding from friends and family that many many businesses were not and still are not including the pharmaceutical industry hence the yellowhammer document. I also think the idea the teething problems would have been resolved by now as optimistic.

 

[ncurd]

Of course if this deal is passed the reality is this is not the end of it. It merely sets up the terms of our leaving and the terms for transitory period and how it might end. The actual eventual trade deal we have the EU is still to be negotiated the same happens with no deal as we certainly won't want to trade on WTO forever. So I think 'just get it done' will find themselves mildly shocked that this actually just a change of phase.

 

[McTallshort]

I'll accept your particular business may have been my understanding from friends and family that many many businesses were not and still are not including the pharmaceutical industry hence the yellowhammer document. I also think the idea the teething problems would have been resolved by now as optimistic.

OK that's your opinion but as someone who is involved in Transport and distribution both in the UK and Germany, operation Yellowhammer was very much a worst case scenario. The ports had already agreed that any paperwork checks would be done at the point of departure and point of delivery so there would be no additional checks done at the ports. Tarrifs were already dealt with and would not have been imposed until the respective parties had agreed them. Stock holdings had increased in March and April although no one has bothered now. EU workers who are not Irish can register free of charge so can carry on working as normal.

You have to remember while all this **** has been going on, people in both the UK and EU have been getting their collective heads together and formulating plans. The problem has been the uncertainty and hopefully that seems to be coming to an end.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Already u-turning on the "No extension" line by Juncker - an extension is still a possibility.

His actual quote was:
"If we have a deal, we have a deal and there is no need for prolongation".


Well duh! If the deal passes parliament and the EU agree to it of course there's no need for an extension.
Juncker has no say into whether an extension can be granted or not, that's up to the EU leaders.

 

[ncurd]

OK that's your opinion but as someone who is involved in Transport and distribution both in the UK and Germany

I'm not going to deny your expertise but I don't actually know you. My opinion was formed talking to people I know, one was in charge of the international export of both civilian and defense aeronautical parts for a large multinational. Another the international transport of pharmaceuticals who now engages in training of those export compliance rules to many companies.

So whilst it aligns with my opinion that Brexit is a load of shite it is still am listening to the expert opinion.

Experts who wrote yellowhammer have said it was not a worst case scenario.

 

[McTallshort]

I'm not going to deny your expertise but I don't actually know you. My opinion was formed talking to people I know, one was in charge of the international export of both civilian and defense aeronautical parts for a large multinational. Another the international transport of pharmaceuticals who now engages in training of those export compliance rules to many companies.

So whilst it aligns with my opinion that Brexit is a load of shite it is still am listening to the expert opinion.

Experts who wrote yellowhammer have said it was not a worst case scenario.

Well I'm no longer in the pharmacy or defence game so I concede you might have a point regarding that but when I was in both industries we exported and imported all over the world without too much trouble. Both are powerful industries with powerful backers and things tended to get done easier than the petfood/specialist food stuff I manage now.

 

[General Melchett]

So BoJo's cronies are now crawling back to the Tory MPs like Grieve and Clarke who they removed the whip from in an attempt to get the numbers. Defeat on Saturday is surely inevitable. Will be interesting to see what the numbers are for a confirmatory vote assuming someone tables this amendment.

What are BoJo's options? Extension (assuming EU leaders agree), GE in the hope that he can get a majority or maybe team up with Farage and then try and get the deal through again?

 

[Amiga500]

The biggest problem is the uncertainty and it needs to be resolved. Everyone knows your not a fan of Brexit you have bored us to death for the last 3 years with your waffle about it but it's going to happen.

While the uncertainty is a big problem, its far from the biggest problem.

The biggest problem will be having a tariff of 20-100% on goods and trying to compete within the largest export market the UK has.

Then, with a hand that weak, the UK govt is going to try to negotiate trade deals around the world. They are gonna be f**ked in the ass by every government across the globe. As the economy sinks ever deeper, time will not be playing into the UK's hands, and everyone will know it.


You'll have a hard job staying in logistics if there is nothing to transport 'cos no one wants to pay a 50% markup!!

 

[Amiga500]

Of course if this deal is passed the reality is this is not the end of it. It merely sets up the terms of our leaving and the terms for transitory period and how it might end. The actual eventual trade deal we have the EU is still to be negotiated the same happens with no deal as we certainly won't want to trade on WTO forever. So I think 'just get it done' will find themselves mildly shocked that this actually just a change of phase.

... and the new phase will be significantly worse than the current phase.

 

[ncurd]

Well I'm no longer in the pharmacy or defence game so I concede you might have a point regarding that but when I was in both industries we exported and imported all over the world without too much trouble. Both are powerful industries with powerful backers and things tended to get done easier than the petfood/specialist food stuff I manage now.

For a lot of it and I'll admit to understanding defense far more than pharmaceutical as I've been involved on that side of things. Many international treaties (beyond the EU) govern how they are managed and whilst they are hideously complex and get more complex based on what you are selling once you are a large company and been doing it for many years its relatively simple. I know a change in category in a NATO designation of some equipment I was involved with once meant the equipment was as of my time of leaving sat in a port in Turkey for years waiting to be delivered to a customer who had already paid for because the export licence documentation changed and we were refused that export license. We also had to wait to even provide support to multiple customers as that constituted an export of knowledge.

Now that was one rule that disrupted a business that they should of been aware of it coming. Turns out the export compliance officer was shite and it also had the added problem that even though there was a designation change nobody told us how to apply for the correct export license until after the rules changed. A sudden change of trading agreement with the whole world (which is what no-deal does as all our trade agreements worldwide are through the EU so they would be ripped up) creates a similar problem and whilst some countires might be better set out than others people will screw up and it will create countless problems. Also the uncertainty of the exact nature creates further issues as people can't plan correctly as you pointed out.

I think uncertainty is bad for business and I think a binding referendum on the deal is best way to resolve that with an orderly transition to the new rules the best way forward. A sudden no-deal would be a lot worse than prolongation.



Lots of spin around Junkers comments now coming out. He has simply said no prolongation but that's with a deal in place, if parliament rejects the deal do they still have one in place? Its open for interpretation I think he's trying to push parliament but what happens post Saturday is still anyone's guess. The EU said May's deal was not up for renegotiation unless the redlines changed and they have done just that.

 

[McTallshort]

While the uncertainty is a big problem, its far from the biggest problem.

The biggest problem will be having a tariff of 20-100% on goods and trying to compete within the largest export market the UK has.

Then, with a hand that weak, the UK govt is going to try to negotiate trade deals around the world. They are gonna be f**ked in the ass by every government across the globe. As the economy sinks ever deeper, time will not be playing into the UK's hands, and everyone will know it.


You'll have a hard job staying in logistics if there is nothing to transport 'cos no one wants to pay a 50% markup!!

Yes because no one pays for anything that is imported from outside the EU do they?