A Political Thread

[Amiga500]

Yes because no one pays for anything that is imported from outside the EU do they?

How will they pay for it if they don't have a job?

Benefits?

How will the government pay those if GDP is shrinking 1% a quarter?


The "get on with it" crowd really haven't thought it all through to the end.

 

[ncurd]

assuming someone tables this amendment.

Labour apparently whipping for it, it remains SNP and LD policy. It will get tabled and voted on with significant opposition support. The question is will Johnson abandon the DUP and ERG and support the amendment in which case his deal goes through easily or does he take the no-deal risk knowing the Benn act and the EU could stitch him up.

If a referendum was passed attached to the deal I think the EU would have to accept the extension.

 

[McTallshort]

How will they pay for it if they don't have a job?

Benefits?

How will the government pay those if GDP is shrinking 1% a quarter?

Oh seriously give it a rest. To think we suddenly become a 3rd world country just because we leave the EU is stupid. Grow the **** up

 

[ncurd]

Nigel Farage's tweet makes literally no sense he's now pro Benn act?

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1184834973662175234?s=20

 

[General Melchett]

Labour apparently whipping for it, it remains SNP and LD policy. It will get tabled and voted on with significant opposition support. The question is will Johnson abandon the DUP and ERG and support the amendment in which case his deal goes through easily or does he take the no-deal risk knowing the Benn act and the EU could stitch him up.

If a referendum was passed attached to the deal I think the EU would have to accept the extension.

Yup makes sense. A confirmatory vote would be music to the EU's ears too and also the SNP as it will give them the precedent they want for Indyref2 which is more important to them than staying in the EU as part of the UK. I read that Juncker really wants this deal to go through for the purposes of his own legacy as his tenure comes to a close.

Saturday will be good day in front of the TV with two (hopefully) cracking rugby matches then over to BBC Parliament to watch the numbers come in.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Starmer's mini-breakdown of the proposed deal:
https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1184838369735577602

 

[ncurd]

People's Vote campaign apparently coming up with "now is not the time" ******** again. When the **** will it be then?

 

[Amiga500]

Oh seriously give it a rest. To think we suddenly become a 3rd world country just because we leave the EU is stupid. Grow the **** up

While the UK might not become 3rd world, it will certainly see the biggest regression in living standards over the next decade that has ever been seen - definitely within the UK and quite probably across the world.


This idea that the UK is somehow unique in being insulated or protected from global economics is strange. If it overnight costs 20% more to buy something from the UK instead of (say, the Republic of Ireland), why would anyone in France continue to do that? Sure, some items might have bottlenecks where suppliers in other countries cannot pick up the slack initially, but that will change, and it will change a lot quicker than any trade agreement negotiation. After establishing their new customer base, why would the government of said country(countries) want to sacrifice their newfound export market? (while in the middle of negotiating a trade deal with the UK.)


Once again, the "get it done" crowd really really aren't thinking it through.

 

[Amiga500]

This needs to be pondered by those advocating Mays deal in Boris' different font size:

Johnson's deal is predicated on the fiction that Britain has more to gain from new trade deals with faraway countries than from maintaining frictionless trade with our nearest neighbours, which already account for half our trade, as part of the world's most powerful trading bloc. The government's own figures show that a hard Brexit – outside the customs union and single market – will leave every household more than £2,000 poorer.

 

[General Melchett]

Just watched a live presser featuring Tusk, Barnier and Junker. The tone was very different to previous ones, claiming how great the UK is, how sad they are that the UK is leaving and that the door is always open should they decide to rejoin in the future. Almost seemed like a subtle Remain pitch. Suddenly a second ref doesn't seem as unlikely as it did a few months ago.

 

[ncurd]

Just want to say **** Corbyn that is all.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Foster saying the voting mechanism in the new deal over NI's status in 4yrs is "one sided". It's a simple majority, items extremely hard to feel bad for Johnson but this is May's incompetence ******* him from beyond the grave, literally everyone on this island knew the DUP were trouble to everyone.

 

[Which Tyler]

Just want to say **** Corbyn that is all.

Oh gods, what's he done now.
Actually, let me guess, refused to back an amendment requiring a second referendum?

ETA: Ah, do you mean that he's whipping against the deal, but in a sexy, not forceful way

 

[ncurd]

Oh gods, what's he done now.
Actually, let me guess, refused to back an amendment requiring a second referendum?

ETA: Ah, do you mean that he's whipping against the deal, but in a sexy, not forceful way

Yup zero threats to his MPs or any attempt to get them to vote against the deal. Probably the crucial part of making sure it doesn't pass.

 

[McTallshort]

Macron has said there will be no more extensions, Junker has said the same.

So people either vote for this deal or we leave on the 31st without one.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

It's a turd sandwich either way, if we take this deal there's still a ton of negotiating to be done and the BoJo government is incompetent and won't manage it.

We're crashing out with nothing in place regardless.

I really hope this is the EU calling our bluff, but will cave if the deal is voted down on Saturday but it feels increasingly less likely.

 

[ncurd]

I really hope this is the EU calling our bluff, but will cave if the deal is voted down on Saturday but it feels increasingly less likely.

Think there's a bit or good cop/bad cop going on and Macron has been bad cop throughout he said we wouldn't get an extension last time as well. I don't think they will cave if a deal is simply voted down but I think Luxembourg (could be someone else) was saying there could be an extension but there has be a reason ie GE, 2nd ref we won't be allowed to tread water like the last two.

 

[ncurd]

Would the EU approve a Brexit extension?

Chris Morris

BBC Reality Check

French President Emmanuel Macron says he hopes the 31 October deadline holds.

He went on to say I can't predict the future, I don't think any other delay should be given.

What he didn't say is that he would veto an extension to Brexit.

What we have to bear in mind that, is that in the run-up to the previous deadline of 29 March, President Macron was making similar points - 'We shouldn't extend' - but in the end he did.

I think, after huffing and puffing, the answer from Brussels to an extension request would probably be yes.

 

[Which Tyler]

Macron has said there will be no more extensions, Junker has said the same.

So people either vote for this deal or we leave on the 31st without one.

They're saying that to boost the pasty cockwomble's chance of getting it through parliament, and partly for macron's domestic consumption where he needs to look tough.
No way they sexline the extension if it only passes here with an amendment requiring a confirmatory referendum.

At this stage, I'm not entirely sure what this deal gives us that no deal doesn't - except NI - though that's may well say more about my sleep deprived brain than anything else.

Something else my addled brain is wondering - what happens if, Cockwomble's deal passes, VONC passes and a GNU succeeds (unlikely, I grant)

 

[ncurd]

Speaking at a press conference in Brussels, the French president said: "I'm not trying to read the future, but I do not think we shall grant any further delay [to the Brexit deadline].

"I believe it is now time to put an end to these negotiations, work on the future relationship and put an end to what is currently ongoing."

He added: "Like I said, there shall be no delay unless there are some major changes."