Two pretty mentally fragile sides, but I'd back us.
Daly at 15 wouldn't even be as much as an issue as their kicking is so poor they wouldn't be able to exploit his weaknesses.
Their main two attacking threats are at 11 and 12, and that's just hard direct running. Farrell and Manu would love guys to just run directly at them, and I think Watson/May are good enough to contain a direct running winger (neither the most physical but use the touchline well and neither likely to be gassed on the outside).